No Big Changes

187 Comments

3:00AM

We’ll continue with the pattern described in the previous blog for several days. I suspect the only changes will be to tweak timing and details of passing weather systems. We’ll see mostly minor to moderate precipitation events, with the odds favoring rain versus snow for the majority of what falls. The most unsettled times appear to be slated for Thursday night and the first half of Friday, late Sunday, and Wednesday of next week.

Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of light snow, especially north of  Boston, dusting the ground. Low 25-30. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 35-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow developing north and west of Boston, mixed rain and snow near and south of Boston, with a slushy coating to 1 inch of snow possible especially in the region outside of Route 95 to around route 495, north of the Mass Pike, before midnight. Mix to mainly rain after midnight. Low 30-35 early then temperature rising toward 40.  Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. High 45-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 43.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of PM rain/snow showers. Low 30. High 43.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 35.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 18. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 32. High 47.

187 thoughts on “No Big Changes”

  2. Thanks TK

    NWS seem very concerned about icing for western mass and SNH. Hope for a quich transition to rain for those locations.

  3. Thanks TK !!

    See by obs that Logan had a couple hours of snow last night, with visibilities down to 1.5 miles.

    Yesterday, all 4 reporting climo stations avg’d about +10F for the day, but the major contributor was the low temp, running around 32F….about 12F to 15F above normal.

    The 7 out of 9 day stretch had Logan down to +3F for the month, but the last 2 days alone have it back to near +4F and with 6 more balmy days to go…who knows where January ends up.

  5. Sugar coating here too.

    imagine if it is 8F above average. wow.

    i just hope it doesn’t reverse in April and the spring is cold.

    TK, how much will the mild winter impact the typical spring backdoor cold fronts? (becasue of milder water) What’s been your experience/observations in the past with similar type winters?

    1. I don’t recall a big impact on back door fronts from mild winter, as I think it’s more a function of current pattern, with possibly only minor differences due to water temp departures from normal. I can poke another met. I know, who may have actually paid more attention to this. Very interesting question.

    2. That song is great! I’m not usually a fan of rap but that has a good beat to it, and the kid actually has a good voice. I’m def looking for some revenge against the GGGGMEN, as my friend from NY likes to call them…makes me question our friendship sometimes…lol

      2. Oh and welcome to the blog! I saw some of your posts over there, this must be like heaven to you compared to BZ. lol

  8. Yawn…..

    Hmm…Another little “surprise” coating of snow this AM, but not really after looking
    at radar prior to hitting the sack.

          1. The ice on the skating rink my SIL set up in the back yard was frozen enough to skate on the other day – it’s about 3 inches thick I’d guess

  9. I’m really nervous about that game but think they’ll win–I’m thinking 32-22 for the score.

    All-Star break just in the nick of time for the B’s. they need to get refocussed.

    1. The B’s are playing sloppy and right now I believe Eli is doing better than Brady. Both need a turnaround.

      1. I can’t help but wonder if that hit Brady took last week that landed him really hard on his left shoulder was what had him off. For once I am not nervous about this game – no idea why and it may change as the game gets closer

  10. I actually just looked at qpf for the first time in a while (things have been so tame)

    Looks like we’re in for a decent amount of rain tonight (over an inch)

  11. A rainorma for sure overnight into tomorrow. Watch for slippery spots across the interior. Still no big snows:(

  12. Hey TK, for us “oldtimers” can you use 128 instead of 95 when you are describing weather to the west of Boston? When I think of 95, for me it is the I-95 corridor in a southwest to northeast pattern from Boston south. I do not believe the “I-95 corridor” term includes the state of Maine. It is usually from Boston to DC.

    Does the 128 designation still exist?….I hope it is still there. Believe it or not construction started in 1936 but was temporarily halted during WWII.

    3. The only part that is called 128 I believe is north of where 95 splits and heads to NH and ME. Scott might know better

      OS – I always call it 128 and my kids look at me and say “huh?”

    1. OS, it was a nickname my golf teammates gave me in college. I had a hole-in- one in a tournament to go along with 2 others in my life, and I still have a long way to go. With that luck I should probably start playing poker!

      1. LOL,
        Didn’t think of that. Guess I play too much poker!!!
        Congrats on the Aces. Closest I ever got was 1 foot. Never
        had one before.

        1. My mom two years hit her driver on a par 3 and it rolled right in. I play a lot and have hit the flag a couple times and she takes her dam driver out and nails one!!

    3. Hmmm

      Here is the 12Z GFS on 2/3. Each run has had something for the 3rd, 4th or 5th, but it has not been consistently the same:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F26%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=192&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

      1. And here is 2/5:

        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120126%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_228_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=228&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=01%2F26%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=40&nextImage=yes

        1. I wonder if there is any chance (lol) of the 12Z Euro
          picking up on either of the above systems????
          I sincerely doubt it. We shall see.

  15. Maybe February will be gangbusters in terms of snow. Who knows at this point.
    HM has the big daddy coming every month, he’s bound to get one right just based on statistics.

    1. The 12z GFS has a favorable pattern and several snow opportunities for the period of 2/3 to 2/9. It has been showing a large ocean storm on Superbowl weekend for several days now (granted its track and location has wavered by about 400 miles in those runs). But the storm is there. Perhaps it really is onto something!

      1. That consistency is at least encouraging considering most of the time it has a storm, only for it to completely dissappear on the next run

  16. Joe Lundberg not nearly as confident on snow chances as HM (big surprise!)

    “Notice that through it all I’m avoiding any mention of snowstorms and cold, arctic air. Why? Because neither will be present. Much like most of the winter to date, there is little arctic air to be had, and true winter snowstorms that we’ve come to know and love just aren’t there. And that is very unlikely into early February.”

  19. Has anyone here ever seen the aurora borialis? With the recent strong solar storm it might have been visible the past couple nights in our latitudes and even as far south at the Carolinas. Unfortunately it only made it as far as central Canada and into northern parts of the UK and Scandanavia. The pics were amazing. Thats something that I have always wanted to see, definately on my bucket list

    1. My husband lived in Sweden from the time he was 1 through 8 and his parents say he saw it but he doesn’t remember. My father in law saw it many times. It is something I have always wanted to see. Just talking about it gives me goosebumps. Is there a chance it could get this far south with all of the activity right now???

      1. From what I understand, it was the strongest eruption since 2005. Supposed to be visible the past couple nights as the photon energy wave was making its way past earth but I guess not strong enough to get into our latitudes. But if the activity continues anything is possible.

    2. my brother woke me up a few nights ago. saying what are the strange colors in the sky and i went out and i did not see anything. I do not know if he saw them or not. he was walking with his friend down the street at a darker part of the street.

    1. OS, the wunderground site only has the EURO out to 180 hours, but it def shows a system in the southeast gathering up moisture ready to throw at us, just can’t quite tell where it goes from there…where does it position the low on your map? the link doesnt work 🙁

      2. Huh, Link works fine for me. Can anyone else see link?

        It positions a new secondary low SW of Benchmark with
        850MB temps all BELOW freezing in our area.

        2. sorry, I think my network at work was blocking it, wouldn’t let me click on it, but I outsmarted them by highlighting it and copying and pasting it into the address bar 🙂

          Loving the position of that low though

  22. Interesting though from Allen Huffman’s website the NAO is negative on the 12Z EURO run for the time period around the 3rd….

    1. Oops, we both posted this one. With the Euro and the GFS both having it,
      certainly shows some promise. Would be nice if it were a bit stronger, but
      then I guess there is plenty of time.

      I wonder if it will even come close to verifying??? lol

      1. Well, I don’t get it. You need to look at this.
        Try to copy and past in another browser window and
        see if that works.

  26. Just went to his website and looked at it, nice to see both GFS and EURO showing potential at the same time!!

    2. Now we have to see if it sticks around. Lately, even the Euro has shown
      that it too can get into the disappearing act! lol

  28. Albany, NY……….0.5 miles in moderate snow….area of precip breaking away and getting into far western areas of the region while the column is still cool enough.

    With that said, quite a warm sector down the coast.

    Gulf of Mexico must be running warmer than normal. There’s been very little cold air sent that way and the warmth in the southeast is amazing for late January.

  29. AceMaster welcome to the blog here. I am looking forward to reading your posts, look’s like your fitting right in. Again welcome.

  30. Well Ocean temp is down a bit. Latest at Stellwagen has it as 42.4

    Buoy A0102 – Mass. Bay/Stellwagen
    (44029) 42.52N 70.57W
    Last Updated: Jan 26 2012, 2:04 pm EST
    Thu, 26 Jan 2012 14:04:00 -0500
    Temperature: 35.8 °F (2.1 °C)
    Water Temperature: 42.4 °F (5.8 °C)
    Wave Height: 0.4 m (1.31 ft)
    Dominant Period: 11 sec

    1. I’m guessing thats about 4F above average, because I’ve remembered when we have seen some big SE Mass snowfalls in later January, that the water temp has been about 38F.

    2. Still probably about 6 degrees above average for this time of year. Right around now it would be at its yearly low, which is somewhere around 36
      give or take a bit.

  31. hey Retrac,
    Snowing out your way yet? Should be just about in your area according to NEXRAD.
    Almost certainly in the form of snow to start.

    1. I thought the link you posted earlier looked familiar. I have the NEXRAD radar app on my iPad. I love it.

  32. Broken record continues. We certainly can get our fair share of rain during the winter (SE storms are common enough), but each time to have a SE storm followed by partly sunny days and mid 40s, with SW wind, is really strange. These lows when departing New England tend to drag down cold air (even flash freezes), but that is just not happening at all this winter.

  34. O.S.
    just got home and starting to snow lightly now. temps aren’t warm aloft yet since it’s snowing at 37.2F.

      1. It just might. Dewpoint it reasonably low at the moment maybe for this to hang on for a bit. I’ll let you guys know if it starts to stick.

        The flakes are really light and falling gently–no pellets at all. the warm layer must be really shallow and only at the surface right now. Interesting.

  37. Snow started here in northern CT around 2:30, went over to sleet at 3:30, now it’s all rain. Quick changeover with the warm air rushing in. NWS point and click forecast showing a high of 53 here tomorrow!

    1. The one reason I could believe in more western ridging in the west in February is……as the solar strength of the sun increases, in my opinion, it is easier in general to warm the Western US and Canada, as opposed to the eastern part of those continents, especially because of frozen Hudson Bay. So, in general, I’d expect a late winter early spring pattern of western ridge / eastern trof, even after what we’ve seen all year.We’ll see.

  43. Not only is the western ridging nice to see but look at the high placement feeding cold air into the storm. The euro also depicts a nice high. Both the euro and GFS showing a similar solution 8 days out is great to see, now let’s get some consistency and we might have something to talk about.

  45. The positive PNA will help next week but the rest of the teleconnections suck but it’s enough to spawn a coastal storm. Just need to put the parking brakes on that high and we very well might be talking a storm.

  46. The excitement of my day off and one of last ones at the shore is I finally got myself a 4S. The Att store in hanover is great I’ve spent the afternoon laughing at Siri

            1. Oh good. I never ate inside there but have had take out from there, great calzone. I wish you had a chance to have gone to the fairview in Marshfield, I think you would have liked it.

                1. The food is good, price is just a tad high, though not as high as barker. I think you would have a good view during the day. As a kid I washed dishes at the old fairview. That one burnt to the ground and they rebuilt.

  52. Did you guys happen to see the piece out about the USDA changing its hardiness zone map for the first time in something like 22 years. The rezoning reflects warmer temperature trends. Here in central mass we went from a 5b to 6b which is remarkable. I’ll take some time at some point to research what plants to take a shot at growing. I also wonder if the growing season is technically longer too. Last I checked we were like 151 or so days here. Maybe it’s up to 160 now or so.

      1. Basically that the coldest it is expected to get in a zone is a certain minimum which affects what type of plants you can grow without real risk of failure. At the margins, maybe being able to plant a little earlier and being able to keep that hibiscus out for a little longer

          1. All that does is take into account a good part of the long term +AO cycle. Not a big deal as it is reverse now.

            1. That’s interesting TK. Funny thing about climate change that I think many people overlook is that of course the climate changes. I mean, do people really think the Earth is to stay at the same average temperature forever? The politics of it all is beyond annoying.

              It’ll be colder at some point too, then who’s fault will it be then. I’m not saying go ahead and poison the climate either. Just that nature is in control of this and will take care of it and us in the end if we don’t behave. I don’t need Al Gore wagging his finger at me from a stretch limo.

              Phew! I feel better.

          2. Vicki,

            I think it’s especially interesting because I like to think about how the climate might have been here in the past and might be in the future and how little changes aggregate over time. The Appilacians were once though to be as high as the Himilayas. Imagine the climate we’d have here today if that were still the case. Talk about downsloping winds!

  54. I want the cold and snow in feb and march but i hope that it will not be rainy and cool durring the summer. I want the cold and snow now and the 90 degree beach days of summer. I am whish that because it has not snowed much we get a good beach summer.

    1. last sentence of that did not make since sorry It should say i am whishing for a hot summer since we have not gotten much in the way of snow so far. this winter has stunked. My luck.:(

  55. Temps rising and any wintry precipitation goes to rain and I don’t see any accumulating snow the rest of the month. Will see what February has in store for us. As I said the other day I think the mild regime continues into February but snowfall will be close to average. I am now think 20-30 inches for the season down from the 40-45 inches I predicted back in the fall.

  56. my weather station is recording temperatur at 32 degrees with freezing rain and sleet. with a southeast wind at 5 mph.
    marshland water temp last time i checed was 39 degrees. No ice.
    sleeding hill is gone.

  59. Today should be very interesting for temps…….

    Low 60s with 60F dewpoints in Maryland (currently).

    I could see Hartford and Springfield stuck in the 30s a good part of the day and some town Boston-Providence points south and east, approaching 55F to 60F later on today.

    How about Mt. Washington, above freezing by middle of the day ?

    And……maybe some sort of narrow, intense line of showers/t-showers on the cool front ( I cant call this one a cold front) later today ?

  61. There is cold somewhere…..

    Tanana, AK : -50F.

    Arctic Village, AK : -47F. They have a webcam. Go to it around the summer solstice. The sun doesnt set for about a week either side of June 20th.

    McGrath, AK : -45F.

  62. The 6 z gigs still has the storm next week but different placement. The only thing I can take now is that there is storm out there and we will work out the details next week.

  63. Like the position the low on the GFS 0z run but as I always say when a model shows a big storm a week or more it is rarely happens. I hope this one will and February will start off with a bang in the snow department so we could make up for lost time.

  64. This weather is ridiculous! I’d say we were having a January thaw, except for there’s nothing to thaw!

  69. I had a really bizarre dream last night. That I was going to a water park on top of Mt. Washington this weekend. They were deciding to open early becasue of the mild weather. My wife woke me up and asked me what I was talking about.

    1. hahaha, too funny! I think the mild weather is starting to get to everyone.

      Now a water park on Mt. Washington would be something to see. Imagine going down Tuckerman’s on one of those straight down water slides where u have to cross ur arms over ur chest…

      1. That’s where the park was in my dream. They made us wear these special slippers so people wouldn’t slip on the leftover ice getting out of the pool. I don’t know what’s nuttier, the dream or the fact that I’m so into the weather, it’s affecting my dreams. (and my work which I plan on getting to now!)

    2. What’s more unreal is seeing that it will likely be in the 50s by afternoon, and again in the 50s next Wednesday. That’s brutal. I’m now officially suffering from seasonal affective disorder, but not the usual type. I want my winter back, now!

      The only saving grace is that it did snow about 6 inches (heavy, wet snow) at Bretton Woods (parts of Northern Maine may get up to a foot). They’re now getting freezing rain followed by plain rain showers, so that won’t exactly help out the ski people, but at least they got something out of this.

  71. today: periods of rain before 5pm temps rising into the mid 40s
    tonight becoming clear lows in the mid 20s
    saturday becoming sunny highs in the mid 40s
    saturday night clear lows in the low 30s
    sunday sunny highs in the upper 30s
    sunday night partly cloudy chance of snow showers lows in the mid 20s
    monday sunny highs in the mid 30s
    monday night clear lows in the 20s
    tuesday mostly sunny highs in the high 30s
    tuesday night through thursday mostly cloudy lows in the mid 40s lows in the low 30s.
    this pattern stinks
    sorry topkatt i posted and i put an extra letter in it sorry

    1. You said it succinctly and well: “this pattern stinks.” It does. I’m planning a few days off sometime in the next few weeks and I’m going to drive due north until I get to winter, even if that takes me well over the Canadian border.

  72. I’ve officially can’t wait for spring to sprout in 4-6 weeks, I’m sick of this winter and any snow that falls now will melt rapidly and be no use anyways, bring on spring!!! Winter of 2011-12 has been weak, again bring on spring 🙂

      1. Ifwe were getting some snowstorms I want winter to last but this winter is blah, so let’s just get to spring 🙂

    2. i want it to snow and i want it to be cold right now so it will not be a cool and wet summer which usually happens when we have a near snowless winter.
      when we have a warm winter with well below normal snow fall. we usually have a cool and wet spring and summer.

  73. 12Z GFS is still advertising a storm for 2/3-2/4.
    Placement is slight different and too far west, but it is there:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F27%2F2012+06UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=192&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    0Z Euro still showing system as well, though I can’t get a good map for the
    appropriate time.

      1. The bad thing on this potential 2/3-2/4 event is that the models
        ARE TRENDING WARMER. OH so much time left for changes.
        It could still disappear??? Who knows.

  74. OS to me its way too soon for warmer vs. colder at this point…Clearly something is brewing which is key and as we get into next week we can start focusing on track.

    1. Yes and No. I agree there is plenty of time and it can jog either way with
      successive runs. However, I don’t like seeing such a major shift to the West, that’s all I’m saying. Still a watcher to be sure. You know, with the trends
      this Winter??????

    2. The one thing that intrigues me about the 6z GFS run is the blocking high to the north. The storm starts to head towards Buffalo and then takes an abrupt turn to the east and heads towards SNE. It keeps us in significant precip for a full 24 hours. Now only of that track could shift east 200 miles.

      The Euro doesn’t seem to show this blocking at all and is more more progressive. The low moves from Ohio to Nova Scotia in under 24 hours. Oh well, plenty of time to watch.

  75. Special Marine Warning in effect for Block Island area for strong t-storms. Just your typical late January day….

  76. 12Z GFS coming out now. Let’s see first IF it still has the system for 2/3,2/4 and
    second, Where the placement is???? fun , fun, fun…..

  78. If I’m not mistaken there r 162 growing days in Boston, 164 days in Providence and around 180 days on Cape? Ive seen we’re our growing days has increased 1.3%?

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