Monday November 29 2021 Forecast (9:05AM)

55 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

I cannot stress enough how important it is, if you are a model-watcher, or watching/reading a forecast that may be largely model-driven, to not pay grand attention to anything beyond day 3, as it should be very general and if there is too much detail apparent, take it with a grain of salt (as much as I don’t really care for that phrase). I’ve noticed some glaring issues with all guidance with the current pattern and will be trying to work out what is more reliable and what isn’t, which in itself carries risk in making a forecast. Long story short: We’ll have a series of mostly weak systems impacting the region in a pattern of near to below normal temperatures (with one day that is warmer – pay attention). So, one system, originally forecast as some guidance to be an important snowstorm, is departing this morning in the form of … clouds … with a few snow and rain showers having fallen in parts of the region in the 24 hours leading up to its departure. A second weakening clipper system will race toward the region Tuesday sending some more clouds in, and maybe brief very light snow in a few locations with no impact. November ends with a chilly couple of days, and December begins with moderating temperatures midweek, slightly on Wednesday, and more noticeably on Thursday as a warm front approaches Wednesday with more clouds moving in, and a cold front then approaches Thursday before pushing through later in the day (based on rough current timing). This system may produce a few rain showers but will be more of a cloud producer than anything else. Dry, colder air is expected for Friday behind that cold front as we should be in a stronger northwesterly air flow at that time, based on best educated guess with this weather pattern.

TODAY: Variably cloudy, then more sun. Brief sprinkle of rain or flurry of snow possible mainly in areas to the south of Boston during the morning. Highs 35-42. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 10 at times.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, then more clouds. Brief very light snow possible mainly in areas to the southwest and west of Boston mid to late afternoon. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 4-8)

With significant forecast model uncertainty in play, we’ll continue to watch a pattern of fast-moving systems with eyes on what will likely be a weak one passing by with a minor precipitation threat early in the period, and a weak to moderate system that brings some threat mid to late period. Temperatures overall are expected to average near to below normal. Timing/details of any systems that threaten will fine-tuned when in proper range to do so.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 9-13)

Essentially the same forecast as DAYS 6-10 with even more emphasis on model uncertainty in the medium range. The only take-away we have a little hold on is variable temperatures averaging fairly close to normal overall, and at least the good chance of a couple low pressure systems to track with potential impact on the region, the level of which is impossible to determine so far in advance.

55 thoughts on “Monday November 29 2021 Forecast (9:05AM)”

  5. Happy Bday Philip! Your bday snowstorm was rerouted in delivery (you know how it goes at this time of year). Maybe the truck will show up before Christmas. 😛

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Waiting to see how the 12Z GFS presents that Dec 6th delight.
    Should be fun.

  7. Thanks TK, well said above. The models are all time levels of bad right now. 3 days is a good rule of thumb. Even then, use caution; the NAM couldn’t hit 12 hours yesterday. Eventually this will improve, but probably not until the polar jet slows down a little, which there isn’t much sign of at this point (typical of La Nina).

    Happy birthday Philip 🙂

  8. Thanks everyone for those Birthday wishes! 🙂

    8-14 CPC outlook is mild/warm for the entire nation. Hopefully the pattern can get colder after mid-December for a white Christmas potential.

    2. It can still snow in a mild pattern.

      Many times we snow with a near to above normal temperature pattern. We don’t need “below normal” to snow here.

      1. Yes, that is very true. I certainly know that. Call meca doubting Thomas. I’ll believe snow when I see it.

        Can the GFS have a hat trick?

          1. I get the hockey reference.
            Played a lot of hockey in my younger days.

            Well, its next chance is coming up after this line change

  12. I can pick out a trend where it looks like some serious cold is heading from northeastern Siberia into Alaska and northwestern Canada during the next 10 to 14 days… That will be something to look at down the road.

    1. The surface map on December 8 probably won’t look much like that. We’ll be seeing a whole lot of fiction from these things the next few weeks. 😉

      1. I suppose. I probably shouldn’t even look at them, but I do find it amusing.

        Is this GFS permanently set in CUTTER MODE?

        1. It’s Mac’s and my anniversary. Also has managed to have a fair share of whopper snow storms. Poor TK. Every time he or anyone has mentioned the 7th, I’ve corrected it to the 9th. It’s wayyyyy too far out but appears even the snow gods were tired of hearing me say 9th

      1. exactly. We´re to the 18th or something like that.

        If we run out of June days, its either vacation time or Saturday´s.

        8 days or something like that to spare.

  26. Some spectacular blue bird shots taken from NNE yesterday after all the Friday/Saturday snow….

    Jay Peak:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2021_11/831ACCC9-64DE-4CC2-A17F-245643207DA1.jpeg.e42c35293cdd40c6930ebbfde5af275c.jpeg

    Stowe/Mt Mansfield:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2021_11/3.jpg.f174a4e13ad40a6c0367f02d2cdc4d88.jpg

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2021_11/2.jpg.55e4593b95f72893e7ed059bbee04533.jpg

    Bretton Woods with Mt Washington and the Presidentials in the background:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2021_11/9343956C-3339-4942-BD15-F57F9E6BD89A.jpeg.425e07e5e585094991b2a1c2bf2e8cfc.jpeg

  29. Update in progress. The last couple nights I have been up til 3:00AM or so working on decorating for Christmas in mom’s house. Nate & I are dedicated. 😉 One more day today: A brunch at a local, one more outdoor session, 2 more indoor sessions with a dinner break between, and we’ll be done!

    Blog should be updated by 9.

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