Tuesday November 30 2021 Forecast (8:55AM)

39 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

The model joy ride continues. Who knows what road they will take next? Or maybe this is more like watching a bunch of people who can’t drive racing around a small track. Whatever you want to compare it to, we continue to see little or no agreement between various models beyond just a number of hours, and models that can’t even agree with themselves from run to run. Instead of beating a dead horse further though right now, just onto how I think the weather unfolds in the time before us. Today’s a cold a one. We start bright then sun battles with some increased high and patchy mid level clouds as the remains of a weakening clipper low move in from the west. This system may produce a brief period of very light snow for parts of our region this evening before it moves out. The pattern of quickly moving disturbances, often timed differently and in most cases weaker than modeled a few days out will continue, and the next one will be in the form of a low pressure area passing north of us Thursday. Its warm front will approach later Wednesday with advancing clouds, and we’ll get into a warm sector between the warm front and an approaching cold front Thursday, at which time any precipitation should be in the form of rain, though it doesn’t look like much will take place. The cold front will come through and clear us back out as we turn windy and colder through Friday. The next weakening clipper type system is due Saturday – again not looking like more than just some cloudiness with a few snow showers possible.

TODAY: Uninterrupted sun through mid morning, then variably cloudy. Highs 36-43. Wind W-SW 5-10 MPH, a few gusts up to 15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with spotty very light snow evening – no accumulation. Clearing overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Brief very light snow possible late evening. Chance of rain showers overnight. Lows 30-37 evening, followed by a slow temperature rise. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 5-9)

No big changes here. Nearly useless guidance. Knowing the pattern helps. The most likely fair weather times are early and again at end of period. December 6-8 is vulnerable to unsettled weather from a couple passing disturbances, which are probably going to be less potent than shown on current medium range guidance.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 10-14)

Again no big changes. Take the DAYS 6-10 section and apply it here with even more emphasis on model variability and “inability” further out in time, magnified by the difficulty they have with a fast-flow pattern in a La Nina. We’ll probably have two disturbances potentially impact the region with precipitation chances as the pattern does look somewhat active, but I don’t see it as a pattern that can produce slower moving and/or powerful storms.

39 thoughts on “Tuesday November 30 2021 Forecast (8:55AM)”

    1. To some degree, yes, just because of the unreliability of guidance as soon as you get out into double digit hours and especially beyond 72… Those were also the days when forecasts really went out 3 days, maybe 4, and a 5-day forecast was a novelty! 😉 Yup, there was a reason!

      To some degree, no, but that’s because experience in meteorology will allow you at least to come up with some idea of which models may at least lead you in the right direction beyond a few days, after which you can use experience and pattern knowledge to do what I basically call an “in-my-head model run”. This ties in with my term “anticipated model error” but have to take it a little further based on the current situation. 🙂

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    It is still very early in the season, so it has been quite frustrating looking for snow around SNE.

    Yesterday’s 12Z Euro looked promising, only to be dashed by the 0Z version. As you say, not even consistency with the same model run-to-run.

    Through the years, it seems that the Winter switch would turn on as early as 12/5 and as late as 1/1. Loads of variability there. Some Winters, it seems it never really came at all.

    Although it has been colder of late, it is still NOT the switch to Winter I have come to expect. With this pattern it looks like it is not coming anytime soon. Sure, some intervals of colder weather, but not truly Winter weather. This is just late Fall weather. 🙂

    Whatever transpires, I hope Mother Nature is kind to at least the Ski Areas up North.

  4. Comparison of yesterday’s 12Z Euro with last evenings 0Z Euro

    12Z Euro

    https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021112912/174/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

    0Z Euro

    https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021113000/162/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

    0Z is perhaps 50-75 miles to the North of the 12Z run which makes all of the difference in the world for SNE snow.

    At least the 2 runs had the system. It will probably be gone with today’s 12Z run. We shall see. 🙂

    1. Looks like I was a bad boy and missed sending along a happy birthday greeting. So sorry.

      Please consider this a belated HAPPY BIRTHDAY Philip.

  15. Of note, today was Dick Clark’s birthday. Only those of a certain age here would know who he was. 😉

    “America’s Oldest Teenager.” 🙂

  17. 12Z Euro system for the 6th Booo

    https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021113012/144/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

    12Z Euro for the 8th

    https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021113012/198/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

    https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021113012/204/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

    Close enough for some snow in SNE

    10:1 snow

    https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021113012/216/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

  20. Taking the model inability & uncertainty into account, the trends in the pattern show some of the coldest air in over three decades from northeastern Siberia eventually to Alaska and northwestern Canada during the next 2 weeks. A cold pattern for Alaska and northwestern Canada usually means a milder trend for the Lower 48 overall. A milder trend does not eliminate cold weather completely nor does it eliminate snow chances. In fact it may actually aid them eventually (more on that later).

    After 14 days…my overall feeling is that pieces of that cold start to break free and head for the Lower 48. Northwest? North Central? Northeast? Northwest & North Central? North Central & Northeast? Everywhere? Not sure yet…

  22. Not very promising……but keeping in mind this is a plot of what the long range GEFS is spitting out as of today, and we know how consistent it has been.

    Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    8h

    If you are a #winter weather enthusiast in Northern Europe, East Asia & the Eastern US, an all blue polar cap geopotential height plot is not what you want to see on the precipice of winter. Strong #polarvortex, positive AO & #cold #Arctic strongly favor expansive #mild weather.

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1465687713449971712?s=20

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