Thursday December 2 2021 Forecast (7:43AM)

45 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 2-6)

An active pattern will send two low pressure systems through our region during the next 5 days. The first, today, has a center that passes to the north of the region. Its warm front is coming through this morning with some rain, but that rain has fallen in the form of freezing rain in a few locations in northern Worcester County of MA and far southwestern NH as temperatures were just cold enough there. That situation will improve quickly as the temperature goes up and the region finds itself in the warm sector after warm frontal passage and ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will cause some rain showers later today and this evening. A gusty, shifting wind will accompany the cold front. Behind it comes a shot of cold air along with wind for Friday. It will remain cold into Saturday when a weakening clipper system moves in with clouds but only the slight chance of a few snowflakes. A weak area of high pressure is expected to bring dry weather Sunday before the next low pressure area impacts the region Monday with a warm front / cold front combo as the low sails north of us. A couple rounds of wet weather will be in the form of rain as it will be milder.

TODAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and patches of fog through mid morning. Breaking clouds with partial sun late morning to mid afternoon. Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely later in the day. Highs 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH early becoming SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of rain showers early evening. Lows 25-32. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 30-37. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 45-52. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 7-11)

Active pattern – probably two disturbances to impact the region around December 8 & 10 with unsettled weather threats. Precipitation type uncertain, but first system may have a better shot at producing some frozen precipitation for parts of the region. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 12-16)

Fast-flowing jet stream but more of a southwesterly flow and a milder trend expected with a couple minor precipitation threats during this period.

45 thoughts on “Thursday December 2 2021 Forecast (7:43AM)”

  2. Good morning all and thank you TK.

    I have not been on the blog as much during the past 18 months due to personal health and family reasons. Things have gotten better recently so I hope to participate a little more.

    Again thank you especially for all the work you put into this site.

  8. Can someone give me an approximate time for a 2nd round of rain today. Have not gone walking yet so I need to get it in when I can. thank you.

  9. Thanks, TK!

    Does one have a forecast for Buffalo/Orchard Park NY for Monday Night Football? It’s one of the top NFL games of the year!

      1. Last I saw was rain and mix. I was looking at it for the same reason. Probably know more on Friday / Saturday.

      1. I’m hoping for some snow showers and wind Monday night in Buffalo.

        I know the Pats have won 6 in a row, but talent wise, I still think Buffalo has more and this game is at their place.

        I’d like the passing game affected by the weather and hope it causes more of a running game for both clubs.

        I like the Pats chances in a lower scoring, longer possession game. Higher scoring game, not so much.

        1. I don’t want it “too” windy as Foulk has been money in the bank for us. 3 points are better than “zero”. You need as many as you can get, especially on the road.

        2. We don’t know how Max will be affected by the elements.

          Even if they lose in Buffalo, very likely they will win
          the at home game so it would be a wash basically.

          Hope they win though. I think they can do it.

        1. I don’t know if I mentioned this previously…probably did. I love Dover, NH. We worked for years (many) with Federal Savings Bank’s (strategic planning to best best business practices and all in between) amazing crew. Not sure if any are friends of yours.

          We used to stop at a yummy corner coffee shop just down the street before arriving at the bank.

          1. Not sure if you’ll see this and sorry for the late reply (coaching my son’s hockey practice last night). We do really like the Dover area, too. I assume you are referring to Harvey’s Bakery?…very good. I don’t have any close friends/acquaintances that work at the bank, but it is a good employer, with lots of community support and volunteering.

  12. I feel for our friends who are on the outlook for snow.

    This is the equivalent to me on June 2nd watching the models for sustained warmth.

    Frustrating …………..

  14. Longshot… Good to see you back! Hoping for the best! Not sure if it’s too late to answer this, but basically 4PM-7PM is prime window in eastern areas for the next round of rain. There may be another one later. Hopefully you already got that walk in!

  15. My Weekend Outlook is up: https://stormhq.blog/2021/12/02/weekend-outlook-december-3-6-2021/

    And for those of you commenting about how the models show little in the way or snow or cold for a while – remember what TK and I said about the models recently: Don’t put too much trust into *anything* they show beyond 3 days. We’ve had plenty of decent snowstorms in recent years that the models didn’t pick up on at all until 48-60 hours beforehand.

    1. Thanks!

      And yes, many times has that been the case with models. No truer than right now in this pattern…

  16. For the Pats vs Bills game
    Patriots Pass defense vs Bills passing offense = wash.
    Patriots run defense should be good but have been suspect as of late even against runners that are below avg
    Patriots run offense is either very good or very bad. Last week was bad because Titans focused on the run. Bills defense is very good against the run
    Special teams will be important in this future slug fest that could be in the snow

  17. Some thunderstorms on the NY/VT border back through eastern NY. Pretty sharp cold front there.

  22. Meanwhile, in the tropics….

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Honolulu HI
    326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021

    …BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS…

    HIZ028-031430-
    /O.UPG.PHFO.WS.A.0004.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/
    /O.NEW.PHFO.BZ.W.0001.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/
    Big Island Summits-
    326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021

    …BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM HST
    SUNDAY…

    * WHAT…Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
    up to 12 inches or more. Winds gusting over 100 mph.

    * WHERE…Big Island Summits.

    * WHEN…From 6 PM Friday to 6 AM HST Sunday.

    * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Blowing
    snow will significantly reduce visibility at times, with periods
    of zero visibility. See the High Wind Warning that is also in
    effect.

    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS…The strong winds will likely cause
    significant drifting of snow.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
    travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
    stay with your vehicle.

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