Friday December 3 2021 Forecast (7:26AM)

47 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 3-7)

After a mild day yesterday, a strong cold front moved through last night, producing showers and even some thunderstorms with hail and cloud-to-ground lightning strikes in some locations. This has been replaced by blustery and colder conditions, and while today starts with lots of clouds in many areas north of I-90, those clouds will become more scattered as the air dries out and we’ll have a fair amount of sun with passing clouds today, along with a continued gusty wind and chilly air incoming, so temperatures will hold steady and even fall a little during the day. Winds drop off tonight but it’ll be a cold one. No big changes for the weekend outlook – some clouds Saturday along with a slight chance of a few insignificant snowflakes by evening as the remains of a dissipating clipper low pressure system move through, then fair weather on Sunday. After that, we have a more dramatic shift coming up. This type of pattern is notorious for such swings, and this will be exemplified by the low pressure system moving to our north on Monday, dragging a warm front through the region in the early hours of the day, leading to a day that gets well into the 60s, then a strong cold front coming through at night with a line of showers and even possible thunderstorms, then a sharp drop in temperature so that Tuesday will be up to 30 degrees colder, but with dry weather as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes.

TODAY: Lots of clouds southern NH and northern MA early morning, otherwise sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 38-45 early morning then slowly falling temperatures. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind W diminishing to near 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few light snow showers. Lows 21-28. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain overnight. Lows 30-37 evening, rising into the 40s overnight. Wind variable under 10 MPH evening, S 5-15 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain early, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a brief shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 8-12)

Active pattern continues. Watching disturbances around December 8 which may include some frozen precipitation for parts of the region and others around December 10 and 12 during a milder spell – so odds favor rain for those.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 12-16)

Mild pattern continues with a couple opportunities for unsettled weather. May have to watch for the return of some cold air by later in the period.

47 thoughts on “Friday December 3 2021 Forecast (7:26AM)”

  6. Thanks TK !

    Eric had a poll yesterday on 60F days in Boston this December. I think I went with 5-7 or something like that and 30% of the respondents also chose that option.

  10. Thanks, TK!

    How concerned are y’all with the winds on Monday? NWS-Norton put out a Hazardous Weather Outlook for potentially strong winds yesterday, four days out.

    1. The Hazardous Weather Outlook is a routine product that gets issued a couple of times every day and covers the next seven days.

      1. Just what we need. More powerful, damaging winds. I had more than enough debris in my backyard from the pre-Halloween event.

        2. I second SAK’s idea. Perhaps there could be a spot gust a little stronger than 30-35 if we get a heavier convective cell here and there, but it would be isolated. This won’t turn into anything close to resembling a regionwide “wind event”, in terms of having to keep track of substantial wind damage and power outage stats. We now have leafless trees, which even though the ground is still unfrozen for the most part, does help limit the impact on trees.

    1. I’d rather that weather not determine what goes on the field, even if it happens to favor the Pats. Let the players determine the game outcome.

      1. The thing about weather … both teams have to play in the same weather, so nobody has an advantage (not even the home team).

  13. It seems our trees that have been holding their leaves lost them all last night during the wind event. I see some neighbors trees still have leaves, but we were more exposed to the wind direction

  16. Fwiw…AccuWeather suggests that the odds of a white Christmas around here are very slim at best. Many systems will be passing to our north, which is typical in a La Niña pattern. Frankly, I never understood the difference between La Niña and El Niño in terms of snowfall for SNE and the northeast in general.

    Is that correct?

    2. Lately, as soon as I get to the second “c” in “AccuWeather”, I tune out. I hate to say it, but it’s kind of necessary based on the way they handle things (talking in nearly absolutes about things weeks away, dramatic headlines that don’t actually capture what’s going on, etc). I haven’t agreed with their method of media for a long time.

    3. La-Nina’s actually seem to give a better chance in December but of course not the only parameter. If you look at La-Nina’s that are in the process of weakening which this La-Nina is at this time in December we have had some white Xmas 🙂

  17. 12Z Euro a bit South with system

    https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021120312/132/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

    Then sends another system up, only too warm

    https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021120312/150/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png|

    Then the big Kahuna goes WEST!!_#(*!@(#*()!

    https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021120312/222/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

    Total run 10:1 snow

    https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021120312/240/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

  18. 12z model thoughts…
    Well, this one is easy. I don’t trust any models beyond 3 (where have we heard that before), but if I take anticipated error into account I change nothing that I wrote above in the discussion. As far as the Wednesday threat goes, ask me on Monday about rain/snow lines and potential snow amounts. 😉

        2. Rochester NY based. Macs uncle and aunt who have the place in Stowe lived in Rochester….I absolutely adored both. I’ll have to mention to their daughter.

          Thanks again

      1. Hawaii gets white Christmases and what do we usually get Christmas mornings…mild rain events!? 🙁

        Yes, I understand it’s thousands of feet up, but still…

        1. We get white Christmases around here too. Boston’s average is about 1 in every 4 years. The suburbs N & W chances go up. By the time you get to northern New England it’s about 75% and northern Maine about 100%. Cape Cod, lower than Boston’s. It’s a function of geographical location.

          We’re not getting screwed out of anything. It’s just the reality of living in the latitude of lower 40s and relatively close to the ocean. 😉

          Believe me, the citizens of Hawaii are not going to be enjoying a white Christmas, and 99.999% of the tourists there for the holiday will be very glad not to see one. 😉 It may be that 0.001% that has gone there to hike to the top of a snow-capped volcano on Christmas morning that would be elated to see one. 😀

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