Monday December 6 2021 Forecast (7:48AM)

75 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 6-10)

The first of 3 systems in the next 5 days will impact our region today. This one is low pressure passing north of us, with a warm front moving through early today with a batch of rain showers and even a few downpours. In the warm sector for a good part of the day today we see the clouds break enough to allow some areas to see sunshine and with a gusty southwest wind temperatures will climb well above normal. We still have to watch for a couple isolated showers or thunderstorms near the South Coast through midday that can produce locally damaging winds. A cold front will move across the region this evening with a band of rain showers and possible thunder, along with additional gusty and shifting winds. Cold air arrives without delay tonight and sets up a breezy and much colder day Tuesday but with dry weather. The next storm system will impact the region Wednesday, and today we’re bringing the impacts into a little better focus. The low will be passing south of New England, in the right spot with cold air in place to bring snow to much of the region, but probably rain to the South Coast which may end as snow. Right now this fast-moving system should produce a minor snow accumulation (probably under 3 inches), but being the first potential widespread accumulation of the season, it always seems to have more impact than it should – so be ready for that. It’s out of here Wednesday night and we have another fair and chilly day on Thursday before the third system arrives from the west Friday with more clouds and what looks like a minor rain and snow event at this time.

TODAY: Cloudy through mid morning with rain showers likely. Variably cloudy late morning on with a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm near the South Coast through midday. Highs 63-70. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH becoming SW 10-20 MPH with gusts as high as 35-45 MPH..

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a passing rain shower and potential downpour with possible thunder and/or small hail west to east. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH and potentially higher in any convective activity, shifting to NW from west to east.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing later in the day.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely with accumulation of up to a few inches possible, except rain/mix along the South Coast. Highs 31-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts especially in coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain and snow. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 11-15)

Active pattern continues. Odds favor a low pressure system passing northwest of our area over the weekend of December 11-12 with some rain showers that may end as snow showers as colder air returns to the region after a mild shot of air initially. Another unsettled weather system should arrive before the end of the period but timing and details are not possible.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 16-20)

Hints of a colder trend that may eventually lead to a winter precipitation chance or two. This is a very low confidence outlook.

75 thoughts on “Monday December 6 2021 Forecast (7:48AM)”

  5. TK, do you think the models will bring the system any farther North, or do you think it is pretty much set now?

    thanks

    2. I think we are close…
      But I say that with caution…even the short range guidance has blown sub-24 hour forecasts recently.

      1. I get it. So this “looks” like a general 1-3 type situation,?
        Wankum had 1-3 on his 11PM broadcast last night.

  16. NWS has come back to Earth

    Consulting ensemble guidance from the EURO/GFS, confidence is
    growing that portions of southern New England will see at least
    a coasting or more of snow. Not expecting this to be a
    blockbuster event as a strong jet stream and lack of down-stream
    blocking will help to keep this a progressive system. Snowfall
    amounts will depend largely on the track and strength of the
    system. Models have been trending toward this system taking a
    track southeast of the 70/40 benchmark. While this will support
    snowfall as the dominant precipitation type for southern New
    England, a track too far southeast will keep the heaviest
    precipitation offshore. There is still considerable spread among
    deterministic models with respect to the storm track, so have
    leaned on blended guidance in the mean time which supports 1-2
    inches of snow across the eastern areas of southern New England.
    Regardless of the track this system takes, we`ll see a
    noticeable temperature drop Wednesday night as strong CAA
    develops in the wake of this system.

  17. So the models are trending northward again. Reminds me of a quote from The Fugitive, which was on last night.

    “So, he showed up not dead yet. Let that be a lesson to you boys and girls: don’t ever argue with the big dog, big dog is always right.”

  18. Thanks, TK.

    I have an appt. in Newton on Weds. I know the weather is still an uncertainty, but any guesses if it will be a snow/ice; rain; or nothing event? I live in Sudbury.

    2. Plan to use caution…
      But because I don’t think we’re going to be looking at anything in terms of really enhanced snowfall rates and it is a well advertised system it should be manageable. But of course we must apply the “first snow of the season” effect.

      Something about frozen precipitation just makes certain people go crazy….. I’ve never understood it nor will I ever. It’s just a fact of life here. Hope everything goes well!

      1. Thanks, TK. It’s really icy roads – even more than snow that bothers me. I’ve driven on icy roads before and don’t like it at all. Nervous enough about going to dr. and although husband will be driving , if it’s icy he gets nervous too.

        1. We all get nervous when it’s ice. Snow is manageable, but ice takes a special skill. Best to stay off roads when ice.

          Should be no ice Wed.

    1. That would be the “above normal” stretch we’ve been talking about heading toward mid month. Still looks like it will be the case. 🙂

  24. How much wind do you expect for the Natick area? I have my fingers crossed that there are no power issues during the game. Thanks.

  25. So disappointed in the Euro that I didn’t post anything.
    Let’s say way south and the least snow of all models. 🙂

    1. YIKES! That kind of wind WILL affect the results of the game.

      Game should feature lots of runs and very short passes when thrown. I doubt we will see any long pass attempts.

      1. 20Z HRRR shows steady winds at 20 knots throughout the game. (23 mph) Just before Game time. Don’t slacken
        until about 10 PM and then 30-40 mph instead of 40-50 mph.

        Should be a fun game!

      2. Pats have no problem running the ball all game . Buffalo on the ores hand wants to throw the ball all day . I think advantage goes to the pats

  35. We lost power for a short time but it was back in time for the game. Not sure how widespread it was in Natick overall.

  36. Our neighborhood of 19 homes has almost all decorated, but I notice many lights are off early tonight. We didn’t light. Last year we kept blowing the lights when it rained; and when the GFS went, it blew several strands.

  37. re; Pats
    3 runs for nothing punt
    3 runs for nothing punt
    3 runs for nothing punt

    BORING….

    Yes, they broke one for a score. That was nice.

    Let the kid throw a few! GEEZ!

  42. That was amazing.

    Buffalo, we are running and you can´t stop it.

    Bill is brilliant. Stubborn …. but brilliant.

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