Tuesday December 7 2021 Forecast (7:39AM)

76 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 7-11)

Active pattern continues. We had a strong cold front go through last night with showers and downpours of rain, along with gusty winds, enough to take down some trees resulting in isolated power outages and a few instances of property damage. Today will be a quieter weather day but with a gusty breeze, and considerably colder than yesterday. Next we look at the over-advertised midweek storm threat. Yes, low pressure is going to pass southeast of New England, close enough for a swath of snow and rain, but this is not going to be a very strong system, and it will be moving quickly, as most systems tend to in this pattern. So we are looking at a rather minor snow event with the best chance of accumulation away from the immediate coast, and most of it will take place Wednesday afternoon and evening. That one is outta here quickly by Thursday morning and that day will turn out fair and chilly. The next low pressure area moves in from the west on Friday as a weakening clipper system, with some light rain and snow expected from it – again not a significant system. This one doesn’t have a push of cold air behind it, and in fact is kind of a predecessor for another low that will track northwest of our region by later Saturday when we experience some unsettled weather, but also a warm-up.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow except rain or snow eastern shores and rain South Coast. Highs 31-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with periods of snow except rain to mix/snow coastal areas, accumulations of a coating to up to 2 inches possible. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain and snow. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 12-16)

Expecting a cold front to push through on December 12 with rain showers that may end as snow showers for some areas. A weak disturbance may impact the region around mid period but overall a fair and mild pattern is expected.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 17-21)

Hints of a colder trend that may eventually lead to a winter precipitation chance or two. This is still a very low confidence outlook. Any medium range guidance remains very unreliable.

76 thoughts on “Tuesday December 7 2021 Forecast (7:39AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    I would have liked to have seen the kid throw at least one deep ball in the 4th quarter. Oh well, at least they won! 🙂

    1. I was screaming at the TV, especially in the 4th quarter when
      then had the wind at their backs. Let the kid THROW the ball!

      They piled up a bunch of yards on the ground, but most times
      in was 2 or 3 yards at a time. Often 3 runs for less than 10 yards and PUNT! Occasionally they ripped off some yardage, most especially on the TD run for 64 yards. FRUSTRATING to watch.

  6. 80 years ago today was the attack on Pearl Harbor. I think many of us who are older remember our parents or grandparents speak with reverence of the day and where they were.

  7. Some of the 12Z models are beginning to show a
    Norlun like feature, bringing snow to parts of the area
    a fair distance from the actual center of the system.

    The 3KM NAM gets Easern most MA, while the HRRR gets
    the coast of Maine. I guess it will depend upon where
    it sets up.

    I will attempt to show where it is setting up and then the snow maps for NAM, 3KM NAM and HRRR

    I think this shows the feature for the 3KM NAM

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2021120712/043/ref1km_ptype.conus.png

    Kuchera Snow

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2021120712/056/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    And the NAM

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021120712/042/ref1km_ptype.conus.png

    Kuchera Snow

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021120712/060/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    And now the HRRR

    https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2021120712/042/ref1km_ptype.conus.png

    Kuchera Snow

    https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2021120712/048/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    Vastly different snow maps, depending upon how this sets up.

    We may yet have a surprise. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. OUCH!!! So much for any potential of a white Christmas. At least we’ll have another year to “dream” about it. Sigh.

      1. Again, this is far from a guarantee, and based on models that we have said time and time again are not trutstworthy. Besides, that outlook only goes to December 20. What if we get a snowstorm between then and Christmas?

  16. Thanks TK.

    Definitely gotta credit the Euro, much maligned as it has been, for its performance on this system. This felt like the “old days” when it seemed that every system, all the other guidance was chasing it and would inevitably cave. I’m not convinced “the King” is back, but at least it finally got a win. Ensembles were also very helpful with this system and telegraphed the trends better than deterministic models overall. The UKMET tends to cluster with the Euro more now than it used to, and it also did well.

    The period from 12/10-12/25 (approximately) could be historic in terms of the breadth and magnitude of positive temperature anomalies over the CONUS. All in all, this winter so far gives off strong 2011-2012 vibes. But it is still early, and perhaps the MJO saves the day heading towards the end of the month….

      1. Definitely not saying it’ll be a season-long repeat. However, a lot of people touted similarities to that winter season coming into this one; so far at least, they’re being vindicated, but like I said, it’s still very early.

  19. The fact that Denver has yet to see measurable snow (0.1”) is very telling. I remember an early season ABC MNF game at Denver snowing like crazy with the field completely covered ending up with many inches. Iirc it was probably late September/early October in the 1980s.

    All I can say this does not bode well for the northeast if the Rockies can’t get any snow.

    1. Literally one has nothing to do with the other.

      For the record, Denver’s annual snow is not much more than Boston’s. (50.9″ vs 49.2″)

    2. There aren’t too many things on here that make me laugh out loud but that one did. There is absolutely no correlation there..

      Did you hear that from somebody else?

      1. I think many see Colorado and think wow….tons of snow. It wasn’t that many years ago that I learned we have a very similar winter. Natural mistake I think.

        1. I think because so much focus is put on the mountains, and not how similar Boston’s & Denver’s average snow is. But still to note there is no correlation between Denver not snowing yet and Boston’s final snow total for the winter.
          🙂

  20. After some discussion here and having some present wrapping behind me….Thoughts on the game. For what they are worth which is perhaps not a hill of beans.

    Bills don’t have a good running game. Knowing the predicted wind, McDaniels played on that because we do have a good running game. Smart, common sense decision by Josh. Allen has a strong throwing arm. One comment was he could throw a ball through a person if he chose to. Mac10 has tremendous precision but not the kind of velocity needed last night. We saw what happened to the kicked balls. Having Mac throw just set him up for failure …and the team.

    Just my two cents.

    1. I mostly agree, however, I truly believe that some shorter passes
      could have been mixed in effectively while leaning heavily on the running game. Most especially the 2 quarters they had the wind at their backs. Nothing more frustrating than 3 runs for nothing and a punt. It infuriates me no end.

      1. I think they played that game very well. And they won. Bottom line. I don’t find anything to be angry about from last night. 😉

      2. I don’t care if they kneeled on it every down after taking the lead. The only thing that matters is they scored more points than BuffaLOL. It doesn’t matter how. A win is a win.

  21. I am not here to talk about tomorrow’s over discussed weather. Frankly, the over fascination with snow bores me. (Ducking)

    I will come here to hint at 68-72 one day next week somewhere in SNE.

    1. ALWAYS nice to see you. But Oh nooooooooo. There is a magic in the first snow….especially when it is Christmas season snow. But as I said to JPD…the world would be very dull if we all feel same

      I will say I’m not understanding the over discussed. TK alluded to that also. Everything I’ve heard has been tempered. Both my said the only one they have heard mentioning it is me and they know it has to do with the 9th being special.

      Now to the 68-72……could it be a Monday or Thursday?

    2. 68-72 temperature? You have my attention. This must be the weak disturbance/fair and mild that TK has above.

      To be clear, I do love snow. But I also enjoy warm temperature breaks even more, especially in December. It breaks up those long, dark days.

    4. The thing that bothers me is society’s absolute OBSESSION with it, and other things like helicopters, orange cones, coyotes, and fireworks. Perplexing.

      I wager December 15 or 16.

      1. Hmmm someone here really enjoys fireworks. Not sure who it is. 🙂

        Something about snow with me. Not sure what it is, but it has been there since I was very young.

        We all have something.

        2. Oh I love them! I was thinking more that people will post all over social media wondering what the slightest little firework sound is about. Here in Woburn, we have a running joke in the city. The “mysterious” noises are called “Wu-Booms” (the nickname of Woburn is The Wu). 🙂

      2. Social media, my dear. Gotta ignore it as much as possible

        For society….snow has always been special…magical. Hard to fault that.

        Just my opinion

        1. Oh I have no argument about snow being special. It just seems like too many people freak out like it’s the end of the world, when it’s been around forever. 😉

  22. Can we write off tomorrow’s event now?

    I will wager LOGAN does NOT see any measurable snow, if any at all. 🙂 🙂

    1. Works for me old salty . I’m heading in at 3am tomorrow morning & will leave at 3:30 pm Thursday afternoon . Fun times !!!

  23. Of course mother nature drags the warm air into the area as I head there this Friday. Watch there be no large snow events while I am in Massachusetts.

  24. Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    4h

    If you’re a winter weather enthusiast in the east, it has gotten real ugly in a hurry

    Pattern setting up for what may be one of the warmest Decembers on record. We’ll see when all is said and done

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1468319115609878532?s=20

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    4h

    And yes, warm Decembers are strongly correlated with weak winters here in the Boston area. All of the Top 10 warmest had below avg snow, with an average snowfall of just 24″ for the whole season.

    1. Brian Brettschneider
      @Climatologist49

      This is the largest area with 90% probability of Above Normal temperatures (darkest shade of red) on any 8-14 Day Outlook since 2015.

    2. Once again, Eric is playing games with numbers. Yes, all of the Top 10 warmest Decembers were followed by below normal snowfall during the following winter. The caveat (that he doesn’t mention) is that they were all below normal if you use the CURRENT normals. If you use the normals that were in place at the time, two of them were near to above normal for snowfall. Again, the correlation is still for below normal snowfall, but it’s not quite the strong correlation that he is claiming.

  28. FWIW (which) isn’t much, the GFS has back-to-back snowstorms on the 21st and 23rd, which combined drop 10-16″ on the region.

    “I’m dreaming of a…..”

    1. Oh, and it also has a backdoor front next Tuesday, followed by a wintry mix on Wednesday. It does have a 60-degree day the following Saturday (and low 60s this Saturday), but nothing remotely close to 70.

      Again though, take it with a GIANT grain of salt, but I’d lean more towards a backdoor killing any warmth around here just based on how things usually go.

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