Wednesday December 8 2021 Forecast (7:53AM)

96 Comments

COMMENTARY

Well, very few lessons get learned these days when it comes to communication and interpretation of weather information. I’ve already seen people wake up early this morning, as I predicted would happen, and ask “so, where’s the snow?” Ask that question if it’s supposed to be snowing in your area this evening and it isn’t. That’s when most of this event occurs. I’m sure there are people out there who saw a model run with many inches of snow for today several days ago and will still expect that to verify. Yes, we still have a problem with information / communication when it should be much easier. Apparently there’s still a lot to work on. Those snow maps that were posted on the TV weathercasts last Saturday night for today certainly are not going to verify. There’s a reason why it’s not wise to do such a thing. How many more “events” are going to be incorrectly presented and/or misinterpreted before these people learn? Good question…

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 8-12)

We sit in the midst of the active December pattern we were anticipating. Today’s event will be a minor one, a result of a weak area of low pressure passes south of New England later today and this evening. It will start to gather some strength as it interacts with an upper level disturbance as it begins to pull away this evening, and that combination along with cold enough air in place will result in some accumulating snow, most of which will occur near and after sunset until late evening. The best combination of steadiest precipitation and coldest air to result in “the most snow” (which will still not be a lot – let’s keep this in perspective) will occur mostly over the region from north central to northeastern MA and into southern NH. Although areas that get little or no accumulation or are rain for a portion of the event will have to watch for some black ice formation overnight into early Thursday morning as the temperature drops below freezing. Keep that in mind if you have to be outside at those times. High pressure brings fair and chilly weather Thursday. On Friday, dissipating low pressure will make a run at the region, bringing clouds and maybe some light and insignificant precipitation. The next stronger low pressure area that will impact the region this weekend will take a track similar to Monday’s system, north of New England. You may have already heard this event touted as a significant rain-producer by some media (I know I have), but it’s not really going to be the case. We’ll have a warm front move through, expected timing early Saturday, with some rainfall as it will have warmed up enough by then, and we’ll spend some time in a breezy warm sector on Saturday which the majority of ends up rain-free. After that we’ll watch for a cold front to move across the region between late Saturday and early Sunday with rain showers and gusty winds. That precipitation ending as a mix or snow is a potential but would likely be insignificant if it happened. Colder air does return to the region on Sunday, but modified, not arctic air.

TODAY: Cloudy. Scattered areas of snow except rain in some coastal areas especially south of Boston. Spotty coatings of snow possible interior higher elevations. Highs 31-38. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with snow of a coating to 2 inches, with isolated amounts up to 3 inches possible favoring northern MA and southern NH, and rain/mix changing to mix/snow with a coating possible closer to the South Coast. Breaking clouds overnight. Watch for black ice formation. Lows 24-31. Wind N 5-15 MPH gusting up to 20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain and snow. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain overnight, may start as a brief mix with sleet and snow interior higher elevations. Lows 28-35 evening, rising temperature overnight. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain early, then variably cloudy. Highs 52-59. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers likely. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Temperatures steady 42-49. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 13-17)

While the upper atmosphere supports above normal temperatures with mainly fair weather, we’ll have to watch the surface pattern for a bubble of high pressure in eastern Canada that may send a cold front southward at some point, putting a lid on what could otherwise be a warmer stretch. Low confidence forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 18-22)

Hints of a colder trend that may eventually lead to a winter precipitation chance or two. This is still a very low confidence outlook. Any medium range guidance remains very unreliable.

96 thoughts on “Wednesday December 8 2021 Forecast (7:53AM)”

  3. Thanks TK !

    Heading out the door this morning, my daughter stopped and looked ahead.

    In those split seconds, I thought to myself, “what is up”

    “its snowing, she yelled”

    Sure enough, after looking closer, I saw 2 flurries and a couple grains of graupel.

    It has since stopped. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. When it comes to SNOW, I have NOT lost it.
        Perhaps I have for everything else. Certainly Christmas as I LOATHE it now.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    NWS talks about an inverted trough, but they are not convinced
    it will develop or if it does, where it will set up.
    Latest model runs seem to have down played that scenario.

    1. Thank you, sir, for staying the course and for sharing the links that both educate and encourage the fun of anticipation.

  7. Thank you TK.

    Living on the north shore, I expect to be in the super heavy snow zone tonight … anywhere from 1/8 to 1/4″.

    1. 12Z NAM Kuhera Snow

      https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021120812/039/snku_acc.us_ne.png

      12Z 3KM NAm Kuchera Snow

      https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2021120812/033/snku_acc.us_ne.png

      I think by now it is pretty obvious that any kind of possible inverted trough will set up in Far Down East Maine and NOT
      anywhere around these parts.

      I think we are looking at an UNDER performer even if it was never forecast to be anything close to a big event.

      1. Where the low end amounts were traces / a coating I don’t really think we’re looking at an under performer either…just a minor system.

        1. I will go with my ranges and stick with my thought on that. There’s a reason why I like to forecast ranges versus exact amounts.
          I have no problem going against NWS on that or anything else…

  9. With regard to communication these days, we were far better off with only 3 networks and a couple independent channels.

    Back in my day it was 4, 5, 7, 38, 56…and that was it!

    1. Many times these days we have a case of TMI. And in the age of social media a lot of that “I” is coming from unqualified sources.

      I try to be fair and impartial when making any judgment on media in general but I will have no issue whatsoever calling out unqualified people giving out information that could potentially put someone’s life in danger. I will never back down from that criticism. It’s completely deserved.

      As far as the local media today, the only issue I’m seeing is that they are probably overselling the Saturday rain event but I’m not worried about it this far in advance. What a lot of people are making sound like an all-day rain is probably going to be taking place over an hour or two at some point during the morning and again at some point in the evening. A lot of people see these big splotches of green on models such as the GFS and don’t really take into account that that does not necessarily mean that it is going to rain all day, even if we could trust any model that far in advance.

      1. Ch. 5s “impact weather” days icons don’t help matters. They use them even for very minor events sometimes.

    2. That is the responsibility of the viewer/listener. It took me a while to figure that out and a few lectures from my youngest. I love social media for keeping in touch with family and friends. If I am foolish enough to think I can take anything as reality from random folks (and occasionally I bring myself into the trap), then shame on me.

  11. What about the upcoming blowtorch? Is it still on schedule to arrive? 8-14 outlook not putting me in the Christmas spirit weatherwise , at least.

        1. No, I didn’t, and I commented that this was all based on models that we have continually said were not trustworthy, and that it was far from a guarantee.

    2. No blowtorch in the forecast. A period of time in which the temperatures over about a 5-day period will be above normal. Yes. You’re putting waaaay too much stock in single maps and old info. This is why we update daily and discuss uncertainties, and myself and other mets have been reminding everybody daily about how UNRELIABLE the guidance is. We have to continually monitor for those errors as well as taking the pattern into account and using what we know of it, from our own experience. Certainly not a method that’s going to lead to perfect forecasting, but it’s all we can do.

  12. Thanks TK.

    Phillip – I think there is hope in the long range after about Dec 20th as I posted near the end of the last blog. Some indication in model ensembles of the MJO heading towards Phase 8 and the AO and NAO taking a nosedive. Maybe just in time for a white Christmas? We’ll see…

  15. Huge upgrade of the Euro planned late next year….model will double its current resolution and there will be 100 ensembles run as opposed to 50. Potential to regain its “King” status?

    ECMWF
    @ECMWF

    We are excited to announce that with the next upgrade of our Integrated Forecasting System, currently planned for late 2022, our ensemble forecast resolution will increase from 18 to 9 km. Look out for more information coming soon. https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/Implementation+of+IFS+Cycle+48r1
    #newfcsystem

    https://twitter.com/ECMWF/status/1468274589012795400?s=20

    1. There have been upgrades that have literally downgraded performance. I will wait & see how that goes before I assume it will be better. 😉

    1. Ahhhhhh it is a Monday or Thursday. That will make daughter happy as she rides and teaches Thursday.

      Thanks also for your posts and comments. Fun to read

      1. It would probably be Thursday. The upper levels would support temps in the upper 60s to low 70s that day IF we arent backdoored by a cold front.

        Mon-Wed looks looks mild right now….upper 40s to low 50s but certainly not record breaking warmth.

    1. This could increase the chances of an intense storm, with the right jet stream configuration and some infusion of arctic air into such a setup.

      Above avg SST, I would think, set the opportunity for greater temp contrasts between arctic air and the milder air above the milder than average ocean.

      1. BUT, it would have to be the exact correct set up, else
        there could be a flood of warm ocean air into SNE. And that’s
        even iF we get an intense storm.

      2. The big bomb storms are less likely in La Nina. Sometimes we can get quick negative tilt on a clipper that is going offshore and warm water can aid that. Doesn’t always result in a snowstorm, but that depends on the set-up.

    3. Warm waters off the coast + a bitterly cold night >> arctic sea smoke… a photographer’s dream.

      Can’t link them here, but two amazing ones were off the coast of Rockport, and the fishing boats in Swampscott.

        1. Just saw this Vicki – yes, the Rockport one was about three years ago, and the Swampscott photo even before that.

          The thing is, those cold cold nights usually mean bright sun in the morning, so you have “smoke” swirling up from the warm waters and engulfing the subject matter with backlit “clouds”. I always hope to get out there but it takes a certain dedication to go out at dawn when it’s only five degrees out.

          1. I think it was the sea smoke with the twin lights. My in laws had a print of that. Their friend was commissioned to sculpture (I think that is the right term) the twin lights for a Rockport museum. I think his first name was Merle but clearly I can’t recall a lot.

            Thank you for triggering that memory

  19. On Judah Cohen, bless him …. is it me or has he been tweeting a possible pattern change to cold and snow since like mid October ?

    1. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen him tweet about a warm-up. Or maybe I just missed the one time it happened. 😉

      1. Judah actually has been tweeting about the awful winter pattern and impending warmth for the last two weeks. That prompted him to break out his ugly winter snow sweater. It may have worked if the current long range model projections pan out.

        1. I was kidding, but yes he was pretty down on the start of winter, even though it wasn’t actually winter yet. 😉 And still isn’t……

  20. Everyone on WXtwitter is so down on the warm weather for this weekend and next week but seem to not be paying attention to what the teleconnections are starting to hint at for Christmas week. After a year of being in the hot tropics, I would prefer to work myself into the cooler weather. I haven’t been in anything lower than 70 this year. It got to 67 at my apartment up on the hill a few times back in February 2021. Can’t wait for the shock to the system haha.

    1. I love the cycle. 🙂

      And I love that I can turn my Christmas lights on at 4PM. November & December are so awesome!

    1. Yep. I’ve been watching that. It’s a mix of ocean effect around the back side of the low passing by and a little help from the approaching disturbance from the west.

  24. Some 7 & 10 day forecasts (as seen today) may blow up badly next week. Emphasis on the word “may”, which doesn’t mean they necessarily will. There’s too much uncertainty. But the bust potential is quite significant.

      1. Yes, Essential that message is delivered. I just hope people are listening.

        The day 7 (Wed Dec 15) high temp #’s as of the 6PM news are as follows… 50 (WBZ 4), 48 (WCVB 5), 46 (WFXT 25), 47 (WHDH 7), 64 (WBTS 10). So the range is 46 to 64. You can make a case for any of those, but I’d lean toward the lower ones if it were up to me.

        1. In all honesty….the message is being delivered by our major Mets. If people do not listen and we let what they do bother us…..that is on us and not them.

          We know the edict is to put out a 10 day forecast….

  25. Portland, ME and Portsmouth, NH in the mid 20s and now, Bedford, MA and Lawrence, MA sub 32F.

    That little wedge of cold air that seeps down from Maine and eastern NH into northeastern MA on a N wind.

    One of my favorite New England small scale winter occurences.

    2. This reminds me of when we have cold air seep down from the north despite short range model forecasts of much warmer. That type of occurrence is arguably the biggest forecast “wrecker” of them all in New England.

  26. I can see a day next week where the summit of Mt Washington is 35-45F …………. way, way, way above average and yet its 42-48F in the eastern half of Massachusetts with an onshore NE breeze.

    IE, warm airmass above undercut by shallow chill due to a bubble of high pressure passing to our north, northeast.

  27. It’s been snowing at a steady rate here in Coventry CT for the past 2.5-3 hours and we are closing in on an inch. Everything is white including the roads. Nice mood snow!

  28. Snowing here too, all the lawns and the shrubbery are white (but not the pavements). I wonder if part of this is the ocean effect snow mentioned above.

    1. No impact in the city . Wet roads , little snow on grass & pretty much what Tk had for the medical arena . Is it 3:30pm yet !

  29. 2.0” even here in Coventry CT and 28F with some light snow still falling. Plow has been by twice. I was prepared to get nothing or a light coating so pleasantly surprised. Very pretty out there with the snow and Christmas lights.

  31. Heard on media tonight: “This is our only chance of measurable snow for the next 2 weeks or so.”

    Famous Last Words …………

    1. Was that by a tv met or a newscaster? Of course the CPC 8-14 map does stick out like Ebeneezer Scrooge on Christmas Eve.

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