Saturday AM Update

140 Comments

3:41AM

Please see the previous post for replies to a few questions and some commentary on a recent snow event and the media’s handling of things, and some thoughts on the pattern.

A full discussion will appear here on the next forecast update, but for now just an update of the Boston area forecast itself…

TODAY: Mostly sunny start then a mix of sun and clouds. High 42-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a passing rain or snow shower. Low 30-35. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy through early afternoon then partly to mostly cloudy later. High 40-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT:  Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 25-30. Wind W 10-15 MPH with stronger gusts, shifting to NW.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with stronger gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM snow. Low 22. High 38.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 33. High 49.

THURSDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/mix at night. Low 32. High 39.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 29. High 37.

140 thoughts on “Saturday AM Update”

  1. Thanks TK !!

    Here are some 6am temps :

    Logan : 39F , Worcester : 33F , Hartford : 38F , Providence : 36F , Albany, NY : 35F

    In the last 4+ days, (since Jan. 23rd), Logan has spent a total of 3 hrs at or slightly below 32F.

    13 of the 27 January low temps have been 30F or higher.

    (Data coming from Taunton NWS climate section).

    1. 16 of the 27 days have had a high temperature above 40F.

      Of those 16 days…….

      1 reached 60F (7th)

      5 have been greater than 50F

      6 have been between 45F and 50F.

      1. That 60 degree day in January I remember people were golfing which is not norm for this month.
        The temperatures out there now in some cases are warmer than the normal highs for this time of year.
        Late week storm is a watcher and I am not that excited about it yet. February temps above normal but I think
        snowfall will be closer to normal this month.

        1. Fore !!! Winter golf is great, especially for someone like myself, who needs the frozen ground and the dead grass to let the ball roll on forever when I hit one that never gets off the ground. 🙂

  2. Morning

    Coastal I was trying to discuss what I think is a blown forecast. I am sorry if I lose credibility in your eyes. I do agree that it was blown for part of the region but not for most of us.

    1. Hadi, I apologize but I was being too harsh with you last night. Your not deserving of that and I am sorry. I guess, to me a blown snow forecast can either be with lower totals or higher ones than expected. Though I love it when they are wrong and we get more! 🙂

  4. Wednesday is February 1st…….and solar spring is near. The sun approaches a max midday elevation above the horizon of 30 degrees and is quickly climbing.

    The scary part of this is that, in my opinion, in warm sectors or warm regimes, starting in February, the models always underforecast high temps because they do not compensate for the quickly increasing amount of solar radiation. What might happen this February, with regards to temps, if we get the same old, same old of the last 4 months ???

  5. For all you Google users… take note that today is the anniversary of the world’s largest snowflake (according to Google, that is)

    1. As I was saying… the world’s largest snowflake coming in at 15″ and fell at Fort Keogh on January 28th 1887. Now that’s what I call snow. I’ll take any size snowflake right about now!!!

        1. I remember that day. I was pregnant with my youngest and there had been some problems. Mac and I just returned from a dr appt finding all was well. I was standing in the family room watching the launch and called mac into the room telling him
          I thought something looked wrong. It brings tears to my eyes still. Horrendous tragedy

  6. My Goodness, for sure. It doesn’t seem like 26 years have passed since that terrible day in NASA’s history.

  7. TK thank you for the update and as always for the tremendous time and effort you put into this blog. It’s a pleasure to be part of it

    1. You’re welcome Vicki. 🙂

      Most of the work on this blog is done by all of you, who carry on the discussion on a daily basis.

      My analysis and forecasts are only worth as much as they verify, and we know that sometimes they are not worth much. 😉

      1. TK you are being gracious. As you remember i manage a blog It does not entail anywhere near as much commitment every day that this does. So I know first hand how much effort you put into this. Not to in any way take credit from the wonderful posts and links and knowledge of everyone here 🙂

  8. There is some hope for a snow maker for New England on Friday but if you reside near the big cities along the east coast, it may be more wet than white. The latest Euro suggests a coastal low with snow for the ski areas and snow changing to rain along the coast. So, there is definitely hope and we have time to fine tune this forecast as we approach the end of the week. To note, however, the GFS shows a very weak low and a near non-event for most of new england. I’m going with the Euro. I like that high to the north but placement of the low needs to shift a bit more to the south and east toward the BM. At least something to talk about…

  9. Interesting enough the GFS doesn’t do much on Friday but develops another low for Monday. Arod I have to agree with what the euro is depecting right now. As I said last night I think our best time period is after next weekend through the 15 or a little after.

    1. Agreed. Euro is my model of choice this far out. Hopefully that high to the north can shunt the storm a bit closer to the BM.

    1. more than depressing. I thought my son was heading to Rangely ME this weekend to ski and texted him the report on Killington being closed that was posted on this blog yesterday. I wondered why he reacted with a “darn” (my word – not exactly his). Turns out he and friends left for Killington last night as they could not get the cabin in Rangely.

      1. That stinks. I guess Killington was like an ice skating rink this morning from all the freezing rain they reported yesterday:( Definitely not a skier’s dream this year.

    2. The snow chart makes me think that our biggest cold shots in February will be brief and most stinging with the “Montreal Express” setup: Short-lived blasts almost straight from the north rather than the type that have come from west central Canada via the Great Lakes. Those can still occur but probably have less bite than they’d have if they were traveling over a deeper more extensive snowcover west of New England.

  11. Good morning all. Not sure if you saw my replies and editorial moment on the previous blog. I direct you there if you want to see it, instead of reposting (at least for now).

    Regarding my take on the most recent runs, in terms of how believable they are:

    00z GFS: Not bad, decent idea of the pattern through next weekend, overdone after. Rating: 6 out of 10.

    00z Euro: Slightly better than the GFS, and like the GFS probably is better in handling the late week threats, though timing may be suspect. Rating: 6 out of 10.

    06z GFS: It’s OK through February 3, then turns up the drama like a teenager at the mall. Rating: 3 out of 10.

    Short term – 00z NAM: Believable. Rating 8 out of 10.

    Short term – 06z NAM: Applying the distrust factor for a 06z or 18z run, it is a weak follower of the 00z, but you can see it losing steam, like a little kid on a tricycle chasing after his brother on a 12-speed (kind of a 1970s/80s thing). Rating, 6 out of 10.

    NWS: Should have at least worded today as “partly cloudy” instead of “mostly sunny” given the amount of WAA high cloudiness streaming in already. They originally had tonight as “mostly clear” but then changed that to “partly cloudy” realizing we had a frontal system crossing the area (NAM cranked out some precip just west of the Boston area but kills it coming through).

    And am I out to lunch thinking we could also see a burst of WAA light snow Tuesday morning? They have nothing (neither the zone or the point forecast advertises it).

      1. Exactly right.

        It’s funny, for weeks (back in November & December) I kept having visions of shoveling big snow on February 4.

        I don’t think it’s going to happen, and now I’m glad if it doesn’t because I am attending a dinner with a very large number of people on that evening, and some of them are traveling from a distance.

        Hosting a Super Bowl party the next day so I wouldn’t mind February 5 being cold and dry.

        Maybe we’ll get an anniversary storm of some kind on February 6-7. After all, the days of the week match up to 1978.

        And speaking of dates, is anyone serious about trying to meet up on February 18? I know it’s a holiday weekend of sorts, but I don’t know how many people would actually be going away for it… ??? If that date is too soon for people to clear a spot on the calendar, we can push it out. No rush.

  12. I was a bit hesitant to jump on the snow train for Next Friday as just last week the models were showing a nice snowstorm for all, and the outcome was a 45-60 degree rainstorm. Although this time around we have a positive PNA and that we have had -AO for about a week now. But the NAO is still an issue.
    May have a bunch of overrunning snow events in February as the PV wants to set up shop over southern Canada and the SE ridge probably still there as well.

    1. Even if they continue that trend, it will take a while to impact everything. Throw a stone in the pond and it takes a while for the ripples to travel all the way out across it…

      1. Should have said “a step in the right direction”
        I’ve noticed the -AO still hasn’t really shown it’s presence yet.

        1. Baby steps, probably making it just in time for a colder than normal Spring. 😉 But some of the Euro “Superman” models would have you believe otherwise. 🙂

    1. They were looking for one more so they could be seven silver swans swimming silently seaward. 🙂

  15. CH7 Is saying no big storms in the seven day forcast. However there may be a small system coming in on Monday night producing maybe a dusting to an inch in some spots. Does anybody else see that.

    1. Ch 7 is referring to the warm air advection snow I mentioned above for Tuesday morning. There is also a system coming through Sunday night which is a cold air advection one that may dust the ground with snow showers.

      1. Sorry missed that, not myself the last couple of days. In your view I know weak systems but what one would coat the ground better, Sunday night or Monday night. I asssume monday night since ch7 calling for the dusting late monday night/tuesday am. Is there a remote chance some areas could get an inch.

        1. The early Tuesday system has the best chance, as it appears to be a more general stratiform snowfall. Sunday night’s will be “winter cellular” in nature, possibly linear if enough support is present, but would be quite brief. Tuesday morning’s will be coming out of a cold Monday and Monday night with cold ground that will hold anything that does fall (and it won’t be much, but it doesn’t take much timed just right to slick up a road for a commute).

              2. Also wanted to echo what Vicki said on the fine job you do here. I have never been part of a blog, It’s just not my thing. But I am hooked here and not going anywhere. My wife and son tease me on how much I am on the computer here. Keep up the good work.

            1. We didn’t. It was such lousy weather we decided to spend the day cooking. My oldest and family are here now so we got a grab and go chicken parm from corner cafe in marshfield for dinner. $26 feeds. 6 and yum We love that place

  17. And for what it’s worth, the 12z GFS is a decent run until about half way through then again tries to generalize and over-dramatize a PV in Canada.

    I really think we’re looking at more of the same overall pattern with a tendency for a little more punch to some of the cold shots as we go into February.

      1. Both, actually. But the cutter is a very reserved belief at this point, mainly because it’s too far away to be sure. I just can see it happening with an over-forecast PV ending up strung out and in retrograde because of a stronger than forecast SE ridge and all of a sudden your primary lows are W & N. The 12z GFS shows this scenario and though I am far from sure this is how it will verify, I can buy this idea over many others.

  18. I still believe that we will have to wait awhile longer until mid-late February…around school vacation week and throughout March (at times). This could also be the year for the early April snow as well. We will see. I do shutter to think what spring will be like though. I have always wondered why we can have very springlike temps in January/February with ease like yesterday in SE MA/Cape but so bone chilling in April/May and sometimes June like last year.

    TK…even though I maintain my thoughts above, could you be a bit hasty in totally writing off a storm for next weekend? I have noticed over the years that in below normal snowfall winters, the few storms we do get tend to materialize (for real) with very little notice. It is 7 days away after all….

    1. Climate is a long term result of all different patterns, and that is one way to explain while we can have a scenario such as the one you described at the end of your first paragraph.

      And yes it’s possible that I’m writing the storm off too early. There’s always risk of error in any prediction. And 7 days is a long time. That said, I’ll hold with my scenario for now. 🙂

  19. Guys and gals…

    I accidentally posted on old blog. I think tk brought up the 18th for a gathering which works for me.

    Glorious day today

  20. Regarding that 15″ snowflake, Lonnie Quinn on the CBS Saturday morning show described it as the same diameter as a paper plate. Imagine how it would feel having that flake fall right down on top of your head, lol. 🙂

  21. That 12z EURO is interesting, has the storm for the 2nd, but it’s very moisture staved, loaded with energy though. Then another storm for the 4th.
    The long range has a strong negative NAO and strong positive PNA with the PV diving southward supporting strong -AO.
    Might just be on fantasy island with the GFS…

  22. Interesting snowfall departures so far:

    Boston = 13.8″ below normal
    Worcester = normal
    N.Y.C. = 4.0″ below normal

    Hmmm….did N.Y.C. get a good amount of snow during pre-Halloween? I don’t recall hearing about much snow down there so far this actual winter.

  23. 1. 7.8″ = 2011-12* (so far to date)
    2. 9.0″ = 1936-37
    3.10.3″ = 1972-73

    It will be interesting how far “down” we go in this department for the last remains of this winter, lol. 🙂

  25. Not impressed by the 12z Euro.

    Low on the 2nd is overdone and there is no high to the north.

    Taken off the model, the storm on the 4th would be minor and a mix.

    1. Hi TK. I realize that blockbuster snowstorms are hard to come by because you need ALL of the proper ingredients to create the “perfect” storm. However, have you ever called a blockbuster snowstorm for the boston area? You typically seem more reserved with your forecasting but you’re always spot on!

      1. Yes, I have. Blockbusters that I have called for that have verified include December 11 1992, April 1 1997, the Blizzard of ’96 in January of 1996, and the Presidents Day storm in 2007. There have been others, just 4 examples. I call for them when it really looks like a lock. Been disappointed too many times by pulling the trigger too early and missing.

  26. Not that one day makes much of a difference I suppose, but Joe on his blog mentions Sunday the 5th as the next potential storm.

    1. I’ll take it. The last weak disturbance that was said to put down an inch resulted in 4 inches in my neck of the woods:)

  28. Love watching the clouds race in from the west mid into late afternoon. These are the clouds the NWS neglected to forecast yet they were depicted nicely by the NAM in the short range. Oh well.

  29. Something to think on… If you have been watching discussions and forecasts over the last few days, first they were talking about a potential storm on the 3rd, which was then the 4th, and is now being hinted at as the 5th. This is more a result of model difficulty than a solid storm potential. Now we have storms on the 2nd and 4th on one model…

    1. It seems to me that has been the case ever since the Halloween storm which was really the one that all mets agreed on. Yes some surprises in a few areas but basically it was forecast ahead and didn’t disappear

      1. There’s so much to learn in the world of meteorology, little by little you’ll eventually learn more and more. The more you learn the more exciting it gets in my opinion.

  31. It’s been clear enough on the horizon a good part of the day to see the Provincetown light from the beach here (scituate). I’m surprised how often we’ve been able to see it this month when we rarely can in summer

  32. I believe this winter we have seen most of our snow,, sure we will get some cold days and even a few snow events from now through Feb but anything that will cause significant impact IMO I doubt. The ponds and lakes have stayed water through 2/3’s of winter with 28days left of meterological winter, the 2 trees 30ft that are in my backyard that didn’t lose all there leaves until the end of Nov, they sprout usually the 1st 10 days of April, that would be only 4 months bare,, they usually get leaves the 1st 2 weeks of May.. What a crazy and interesting winter,, have a great night,, ps,, gfs says 50 deg midweek next week!! 🙂

  35. I think the solution for the 3rd on the 18z GFS is reliable. That thing on the 5th looks too good to be true..

  36. The 5th just sits and spins in moisture in very cold air. I agree Scott way too good to be true, but keep in mind we are not 300 hrs out so who knows.

  37. Today was cold in Marshfield, no matter what the thermometer said. When that wind came around to S/SE…..it wasnt that milder air we’ve seen all winter, it almost felt like a spring seabreeze that is cold and damp and goes right through you. Brrrr !!

    1. It was cold when the wind came up but it was from west so house blocked it on ocean side. I just came in from sitting outside for an hour. It’s great

              1. Doctor said I can work with restrictions. That may not go over with work since I need two hands for my line of work. I am heading in Monday but suspect they will send me home. I go back to the doctor on Friday to most likely get the splint off, it is a hard splint. Hand not broken but very bad sprain. So I expect to be home next week.

                2. Not sure what happened while sleeping last night. I woke up and the splint was off. It is a big splint. My wife said I may have taken it off LOL.

  38. Hey TK…you mentioned earlier that there were blockbusters that you called for and verified, what about Dec. 26, 2010?

    Also you mentioned the President’s Day Storm 2007…surely you meant 2003! 🙂

  40. Our peculiar winter continues. I’m not holding my breath about next week’s potential in terms of snow. I have seen some consistency in terms of colder air working into the region by next weekend. I’m very happy to see that. I don’t even care too much about snow. I just do not want 40s and 50s in winter. Something just doesn’t fit when it’s 46 and sunny, like it was today (January 28th for goodness sake!). Will likely hit 50 again next Wednesday!

    Across the pond, they’ve been having extremely mild weather until this weekend. The predicted Scandinavian High is building. It is more impressive than initially forecast which may provide for record cold in parts of Western Europe by next week. I’m hoping my Dutch friends get to skate on the canals. They should be able to by Wednesday or so. Forecasts in most of Western Europe tend to be much easier than forecasts on this side of the pond, in part because the High pressure zones hardly move for weeks on end, whether they’re nestled inside Russia and the Eastern Mediterranean, or hanging over Scandinavia and you can almost (not quite) pinpoint the track of Atlantic Lows from several thousands of miles away. And Atlantic Lows really fly across the Atlantic. Beautiful imagery, by the way, of Atlantic Lows as they traverse the ocean in November, getting bigger and bigger in size and reach until they impact most of the European continent. Jet stream deviations do occur, but not nearly as dramatic as ours. Day-to-day oscillations are very, very infrequent. I’m probably boring everyone to tears with European weather. Most of you don’t care, and why would you. My apologies.

    1. Too expensive in summer. I’m a bit picky and need to be right on beach. It costs same for a month in winter as a week in summer. We usually do two weeks summer though

  42. Vicki- My wife and I are thinking about upgrading phones. We have t-mobile and would choose a phone with them. Looking for something that we could search for stuff and emails too. Just not sure what phones are good.

    2. I have AT&T. So far they have best iPhone although others may now have multitasking. I don’t know about t mobile. I am a huge iPhone fan. I don’t think I could have anything else that is currently out there. Mac is not a techy guy. He just got the iPhone 3GS. It cost him 99 cents but has everything he needs. I got the 4s because I have the unlimited data package and knew they’d grandfather it in and didn’t want to lose it. That’s really an excuse. Don’t tell anyone. I just wanted the phone :). I’m not much help unless you want the iPhone but suspect someone here would be

      1. Thanks. If you ever get a chance could you check out t-mobile site for me and see what may be a good phone. I know I am asking alot.

        1. I’d be happy to take a look but I really don’t know about them. I won’t be able to till I get home. If I forget. Please remind me. It’ll be a bit hectic until I get back in the routine next week

          1. I meant see if they have an I phone like yours. I am like your husband not a techy guy so don’t really know what were looking for. They had one on there that was free. Some hc4 or somthing like that. No problem if you can’t. Thank’s. If we find a phone would get two.

  44. Another full 24 hr day, yesterday, of above freezing low temps and a Logan airport temp anomoly of > +10F. I’m guessing that should get Logan towards +4.8F to +5.0F for the month. If it holds at 5.0F or greater, that would be three straight months of +5 or greater at Logan.

  45. Hazy Sunshine…….Hot……Humid……….Severe Thunderstorm Watch……..Warm…….less humid………PM Seabreeze……..Bermuda High………Central USA Ridge……..Tropical Depression………

    Just dusting rust off the weather terms we’ll need for March and April 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. The way things are going I would not be surprised if a few of those terms come out during those months.
      I remember back in April 2002 parts of SNE had a heat wave which led to a very hot summer and that hot summer
      led to a snowy winter.

  47. That’s some cold Tom.

    Well no surprise GFS/EURO day what storms for next weekend and beyond. At this point I give up and say bring on the nice weather. A little reverse psychology:)

  50. Making up for the lack of update yesterday evening… The Week Ahead has been posted early. Have at it! 🙂

    Fellow met’s: I think the Euro may be too amplified on its 00z run and in a very rare occurrence I am trusting the 06z, yes 06z, GFS over the 00z Euro. Agree? Disagree?

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