Friday December 10 2021 Forecast (7:41AM)

61 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 10-14)

Not a lot of change needs to be made to the previously-posted outlook. Overnight, a little very light snow occurred in some areas, mostly north of I-90, but it was so light that you’d probably never know if you didn’t see it. Today’s abundant cloud cover is the result of the air warming above us. We’ll feel a tiny bit of that warming at the surface too in that the maximum temperatures today will be a few to several degrees higher than yesterday. Low pressure tracks from the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes tonight through Saturday then onward across southeastern Canada Sunday. This track will put us in line for a warm frontal passage early Saturday with some rainfall, then a cold frontal passage with a line of convective showers (maybe some thunder) Saturday evening / night from west to east. Between the two fronts we will find ourselves in the warm sector with a gusty breeze. This system is similar to but a little less potent than the one we experienced back on Monday. Behind this will come cooler weather for Sunday along with a gusty wind but dry conditions. The large scale pattern will set-up with a ridge of high pressure building in the east central US as we head into early next week, but with the axis of this ridge far enough west and the core of it far enough south, this will leave our region in a more west northwesterly air flow and with dry weather, the warm-up we see will be modest.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind E to SE under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain overnight, with pockets of freezing rain possible over some locations away from the coast for a short time. Lows 30-37 evening, followed by a slow temperature rise overnight. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain early to mid morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny late morning on. Highs 57-64. Wind S to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts above 25 MPH likely and gusts to around 40 MPH possible, especially South Coast and higher elevations.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower, possibly heavy, including the slight chance of thunder and small hail, from west to east late evening to early overnight hours. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH frequently gusting to 30 MPH and occasionally gusting stronger, shifting to W from west to east.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 42-49. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 44-51. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 15-19)

Low pressure passes north of the region during the middle of next week while the upper ridge stays in place to the southwest of New England but extending across much of the region before slightly retrograding westward later next week. The resultant weather here based on the best-guess I can make after applying the uncertainty factor is that we see some clouds from a warm front passing by December 15, the “warmest” day December 16 ahead of a cold front that then cools us down for the end of next week, but with mostly fair weather expected. Although, we must be on the look-out for at least a weak disturbance somewhere around the December 18-19 weekend that the model guidance doesn’t “see” this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 20-24)

Fast flowing west-to-east pattern expected. While day-to-day details can’t be determined this far in advance, the trend is to be seasonably cool with at least one disturbance bringing a precipitation opportunity.

61 thoughts on “Friday December 10 2021 Forecast (7:41AM)”

  3. Thanks TK.

    As far as I know, still no measurable snowfall for Denver. Their latest to date ever I believe.

    Boston = 0.3 inch

      1. If Denver (The Rockies) can’t snow, certainly doesn’t bode well for us in SNE.

        0.3” to date

        9.3” total = 2011-12 (hopefully not a sign) 😉

        1. There is actually a major snowstorm that has been occurring over the past 24 hours in Utah and Colorado that has dumped 1-2 feet of snow in the mountains and 3-6″ in Salt Lake City.

          As has been said before, what happens out there really has no bearing on our weather here. In fact, more times than not, the winter weather out there is opposite what it is here. Big ridge and warm air out west often translates to colder, stormier weather in the East and vice versa.

        2. I just told you the other day there is no correlation between Rockies snow and Boston snow. It doesn’t really mean anything.

          1. I agree as I said the other day there is no correlation, but according to the article philip is correct that Denver is unusually late this year. I find that very interesting. For no reason other than …it is interesting

      2. Actually, the “normal” for Denver International is 50.9″ and for Logan it is 49.2″ I posted that the other day, perhaps you missed it.

        1. There are multiple seasonal averages of you look. Some from the airport, one from Central Park. Long term is 57.9. Last 30 years is 51.9. I’d prefer not to use the 30 years as I know they differ even in states north of here from decades before that period.

            1. To use a portion of time and numbers recorded. Your choice. But I’d love to have you list areas (cited) around the world that arbitrarily use part rather than the whole.

              1. The World Meteorological Organization defined it, so it is the standard used around the world by ALL countries.

                From the NWS (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/defining-climate-normals-new-ways):

                What Are Climate Normals?
                Scientists traditionally define a Climate Normal as an average over a recent 30-year period. Our most recent installment covers the period from 1981 to 2010. Why 30 years? Close to a century ago, the International Meteorological Organization—now known as the World Metrological Organization—instructed member nations to calculate Climate Normals using 30-year periods, beginning with 1901–1930. Also, a general rule in statistics says that you need at least 30 numbers to get a reliable estimate of their mean or average. So, our scientists have traditionally defined Normals as averages over 30 years simply because that is the accepted convention—not because a 30-year average is the only logical or “right” way to define a Climate Normal.

              2. First, to have many more years of data and to completely ignore it, makes absolutely no sense.

                However, my first thought as I was reading information last night was that if we use 30 years, it explains how some “scientists” can deny the very real change in climate. Part of the link you posted from was left out. Seems I am far from alone.

                Doesn’t Climate Change Affect 30-Year Normals?
                Some users of our traditional Climate Normals products have expressed concerns about using a 30-year average in an era of observed climate change. Why? Because if climate conditions are shifting upward or downward, rather than fluctuating above and below the same constant level, it may make sense to calculate an estimate of the current state of the climate in a different way. Based on extensive feedback from user groups, particularly from the energy industry, we are now releasing Supplemental Monthly Temperature Normals that define “normal” in alternative ways.

                Another interesting read is below. Paragraph five mIrrors a comment made by TK often.

                We can leave it at anyone who chooses can use 30 years; however, if there is reliable data further out than 30 years or determined based on supplemental info, I will use that more accurate number

                https://qz.com/1055629/why-does-all-our-climate-data-start-in-1880/

  7. Thanks TK.

    Today’s Judah tweet, he has back on the potential PV split train….

    Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    2h

    Who isn’t here for the #PolarVortex (PV) split animations? Latest GFS certainly suggesting one, not that I believe it but I do believe that the tropospheric circulation is becoming more conducive to disrupting the PV and it is finally interesting to watch. #WinterIsComing

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1469311274936848390?s=20

      2. Hahahahaha. I was reading up and getting very confused. Of course if I didn’t read up, it might help a bit

  9. And Denver’s streak is over…

    NWS Boulder
    @NWSBoulder
    33m

    First measurable snow at Denver! 0.3″ has been measured so far today. #cowx

    1. Thanks Mark. Unlike Logan, they will continue to add to their total for the season since they are in the midst of a storm. No doubt they will likely be well ahead of Boston at least for awhile.

      1. They actually missed out on most of this storm. 0.3″ will probably do it for them. Most of the accumulating snow occurred in the mountains and is occurring now in the Plains north/northeast of them.

        So Logan is still in the lead for now.

        1. Correction, I thought Logan got an inch Wednesday. They actually recorded 0.3″ as well so it is a dead heat!

  10. Thank you TK
    Still dealing with a weird computer problem, mostly dealing with the internet. In the middle of a system restore back to 11/29. I am hopeful this resolves the issue. Hope so anyway.

  11. Improved look on the 12z GFS after another cutter and potential surge of milder air later next week. We are in the boundary zone between the colder and milder 12/18 to 12/21 with a few precipitation threats and then on the colder side of the boundary 12/21 to 12/26. Still long range but has some ensemble support.

        1. Some of Eric’s tweets are borderline misleading. There will be a large area of well above normal temps for several days next week in the country but here in New England probably only two really warm days (Saturday and Thursday) and the rest of the week will only be slightly above normal.

          1. Yes, they can be if someone chooses not to look further. He gives temps and I think….much like Pete and sometimes JR…has fun with it. He does state further on that this is subject to change.

    3. I love this. I don’t think about the runs, but a soltelunhave o check to see if any more info has been posted

  14. Rockies snowfall is not correlated to Boston’s snowfall.

    JMA model.. HAHAHA…
    The JMA blogger is much more reliable, thanks. 🙂

  15. As previously mentioned, I don’t see us stringing warm days together. They are one-day events (last Monday, this Saturday, maybe next Thursday). For a fair amount of next week, we’re to be influenced by high pressure that is centered north and/or east of New England. That’s NOT a warm pattern in December. It’s not a cold one either, but it’s certainly not a blow torch. This December is NOTHING like 2001, for example, when Boston hit 77 twice, and we had long stretches of sunny weather and temperatures that were above normal for early May, let alone December.

    Sometime this weekend I am going to share an email that a long time colleague wrote about issues with temperature sensors. Seems our too-warm readings are a little more common. More on that soon…

    2. I Saw their virtual performance last year. It was awesome. I was sad they didn’t offer the same this year

  17. Quick update before I go…

    A good part of tomorrow is rain-free, as I mentioned previously. Timing is a little quicker I think on the evening frontal passage.

    I’m not really sure why the local media keeps talking about how “crazy” the weather pattern is. Is there ever a time when they DON’T say that now? I hate it. It’s a damn La Nina pattern that has been well-forecast considering the craptacular model performances. It’s not like meteorologists haven’t talked about all this stuff. It’s not “crazy”. How many records have been broken this month, this fall? Pretty much ZERO! My goodness media, get over yourselves!! It’s not all about drama….

  18. Michael Nesmith of the Monkees has died at age 78.

    I guess only one “Monkee” left, Mickey Dolenz! 🙂

    1. This was part of the “secondary peak” we see in autumn, a little later than the average this year due to the La Nina pattern etc. Sadly, conditions were “perfect” for these storms over a fairly large area.

Comments are closed.