Sunday December 12 2021 Forecast (8:32AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 12-16)

Our La Nina driven pattern remains locked in for the time being. We’ve seen 3 distinctive low pressure systems impact the region during this week (4 if you count the remains of one that moved through during Friday). Monday’s and yesterday’s systems were the ones that tracked north of the region putting us in a warm sector and experiencing two frontal passages bringing a variety of wind directions and speeds and showers even with some thunderstorms. Wednesday’s, a much weaker system, brought a minor accumulating snow to a good portion of the region, the first of the season. We’re now in a chilly air mass with gusty wind behind our latest cold front. As the run returns to prominence today it will continue blustery as high pressure approaches from the west while a broad and strong low pressure circulation departs via eastern Canada. The high pressure area will pass to our south on Monday while we moderate temperatures but stay breezy. Another high pressure bubble will be moving eastward across southeastern Canada and a cold front will quietly pass by our region Monday evening, setting up a wind shift and a cool-down for Tuesday. The next low pressure system seems destined for a track east northeastward through the Great Lakes and into southeastern Canada. This will send a warm front our way on Wednesday when we’ll see more cloudiness and the chance of some light precipitation at some point. We’ll spend some time in the warm sector Thursday, which is now the only “warm” day in what was a poorly-modeled warm spell just days ago. A cold front will be approaching by later Thursday with the end of that warm-up already in sight.

TODAY: Increasing sun. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH, diminishing slightly during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 24-31. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 41-48. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Light rain/mix/snow possible. Lows 32-39. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers late. Highs 52-59. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 17-21)

The overall pattern remains one with frequent, fast-moving systems. Overall storm track starts to shift more to the south with some more variety of precipitation types possible in what will probably be two low pressure systems to impact the region during days 6 through 10 (target dates December 18 & 20).

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 22-26)

A gradual pattern shift continues with it becoming easier to be colder and better opportunities for frozen precipitation to be involved with any disturbances.

55 thoughts on “Sunday December 12 2021 Forecast (8:32AM)”

  4. I am certainly liking the pattern that looks to start setting up in the 6 to 10 days -EPO, MJO 7/8 and the shift in the models to a
    -NAO all good ingredients.

  5. Time for another on the spot example of model performance…

    Just a small handful of days ago our guidance was portraying today as a windy and mild day with high temperatures in the 60° area while a cold front sat west of us.

    I bring the shop for the same reason I often do and that is as a reminder not to get to hung up on day-to-day details beyond day three when looking at guidance.

    2. First, excellent Vinnie reference there SAK, respect!
      Second, the whole “New England is going to be in the mid 70s, this must be a sign of the apocalypse” hype definitely made it out here to California. I always appreciate having your educational expertise to use in responding, so thanks!
      Third, even if I’m not relying on the details yet, glad to be paying extra attention to both the 11-15 *and* 6-10 day forecasts!

      1. I’m really hoping for some snowfall when you I’ll make the trek back east, just not one that will delay you getting in!

  6. Thanks TK.

    No real property damage overnight as far as I know, other than my recycling bin toppled over on its side and my driveway gate propped open.

    I should have placed the bin up against the house yesterday after work. I thought about it but I didn’t think the winds would be quite that strong. As for the gate, it was damaged over the summer, courtesy of the city of Boston. Still trying to look for a fence company to either repair or replace altogether. Surprisingly, many companies will not accept jobs in Boston neighborhoods. I contacted a fencing company this morning that did a job on my street at a house a couple blocks away. Hopefully they get in touch and can give me an estimate.

    1. I got a few twigs down in the backyard and a few barrels that are slightly upset… Empty barrels that are stored behind the shed. Most of the time they are fine but in wind like last night and early today they usually go a little bit sideways. 😉

      1. I love seeing you here, Matt. I am sure your family is very excited for you to be home, especially for the holidays.

    2. Well as much as our guidance was convincing people that we had no shot of it just a few days ago, I’m not going to let it convince anybody now that we are a lock for it. Basically as of December 12th, the chances for a white Christmas pretty much a line with climatology. In about 3 days, we can start adjusting those one way or another, with caution of course.

      What we can say is that the pattern becomes slightly more favorable to support systems that include frozen precipitation. From there, the details are yet to be determined.

  10. We get a fair amount of wind on our little hill. Last night was easily the most prolonged strong wind even we have had since moving here. I admit to being both fascinated and more than a bit nervous. Pete referenced it’s arrival on Twitter and called it “mighty.” It surely was.

    Some of our well secured decorations came down. What amazed and pleased me is the teak Isle reindeer and manger, which took direct hits, remained standing even when the heavy metal rods that are supplied with them bent.

  11. Thank you, TK.

    I like the use of the word “ensemble” (French word) in meteorology. I was part of an ensemble in my violin-playing days. Clearly a different use of the same word, though there is some commonality as they both refer to a grouping together.

    1. Thanks Vicki. The problem I have is that sunrise and sunset keeps going in opposite directions, which results in so much lag time between the two.

      1. The next threat after the 18th looks a bit more interesting right now but still a long ways off on both potential systems

    1. I remember it well. I mentioned it a bit ago when I was listing storms on or around December 9. My in-laws drove up from charleston to celebrate Santa Lucia (longest night) and meet my oldest’s new and first pony. They got stuck in Hartford area. Schools were cancelled for the first time in my memory for three days.

    2. Thank you, Mark, for that very fond memory. Tomorrow being Santa Lucia, there are many special memories of times gone by and this is one. You have a very special knack for triggering those memories.

      A photo of that pony and his 12 year old girl….at a show in Westfield and on a beach that is a favorite of TK’s …Hampton

      https://imgur.com/a/R5qBl2u

    3. Yes, I remember that storm. After it was over, I drove from Dorchester to Quincy (Wollaston) to a dental appointment. I literally went from several inches of snow to bare ground when I arrived, then the reverse on the return home. I guess I looked rather silly coming into the dentist office in boots.

      Based on that map, a very sharp cutoff between snow and bare ground. The rain/snow line must have ran out of gas to say the least. I’m fairly certain that event started as rain everywhere. Check my memory if not correct.

      1. Yes, After the storm at lunch I went from my office in Canton with a full 12 inches or so of snow about 5 or 6 miles down
        128 to the Braintree Mall where there was ZIPPO. Not even a trace of snow anywhere. Pretty sharp final rain/snow line.

        I remember Mark Rosenthal being asked how much snow could come after the changeover (there was OH SO MUCH RAIN that had already fallen) and Mark told the radio announcer that there was still enough moisture left for
        a foot of snow. Mark R. Pretty much nailed it.

        1. He did indeed. I had a nice little back & forth with him last week on a group I co-admin. 🙂 He is also a lurking member of the WHW family.

    4. Oh boy, yes indeed!!!
      rained in the city for a long time. it was mixing with snow out in Canton, Norwood and Westwood around 2PM. Mixing in JP from 4 or 5 PM until changeover around 9 PM or so. JP got 12 inches, as you see, Logan a bit more than 9.
      My brother in Burriville, RI said he got about 30 inches.
      Amazing storm.

      I was getting the then version of the GFS via fax back then and believe it or not, it NAILED it 5 days out.

  19. December 1992 storm: Remember it very well. What a load of snow after a whole lot of rain. That was one moisture-laden storm. I had gone on a “movie date” with a friend of mine and I had to drive her home to Newton after we saw the movie in Woburn. Well, it was raining when we got to the movies, mixing with huge wet flakes when we left, all snow and accumulating by the time I dropped her off, and it got progressively worse from there. It was one of the first big tests of my new car (a 1992 Chevy Corsica) in snow, and it passed the test!

  20. I think the system around December 18 will end up weaker and further south than currently modeled.

  22. Reading up on that 1992 storm, looks like we received a foot of snow in Amsterdam NY where I was at the time and the hill towns around Albany received 3 feet. So it was definitely not a localized event. Good write up here by Steve Lapointe, long time meteorologist at WRGB in Albany. This storm had strong easterly winds off the Atlantic which caused some major downsloping and a snow shadow effect in the Hudson Valley and CT River valley, hence only the 3-6” totals there.

    http://slapointewx.com/wrgb/weather_historical_daily/1992/Dec11-12SuperNor'easter.html

    And you were right Dave, he mentions the storm was well forecast for a week out.

    Another good article here from the Washington Post

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1992/12/13/storm-dumps-snow-on-new-england/a5ccfefc-d732-4ac0-b151-eb2f72603c7b/

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