Monday December 13 2021 Forecast (7:43AM)

61 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 13-17)

The next 5 days will continue our pattern of frequently passing weather systems as nothing hangs around in this fast-flowing jet stream set-up. Today will be a dry day but will start with an abundance of high level cloud cover (which gave a great sunrise for many areas in case you missed it) as warmer air moves in above us. These clouds will move out with sun taking over as the day goes on, and it will be a little milder and less breezy than yesterday was. A cold front quietly crosses the region tonight, and it’s a good thing it will struggle to produce even any clouds, because tonight we peak the Geminid Meteor Shower, which should put on a decent show despite some moonlight interference for the first part of the night. Tuesday, high pressure builds into eastern Canada and sends a slightly cooler by dry northern air flow into our region while the front that just went by comes to a stop to our south. This front will then make its way back northward Wednesday in response to the next approaching area of low pressure. This low’s track is destined for the Great Lakes and into southeastern Canada, so once again we’ll get into the warm sector behind the warm front and ahead of a cold front trailing from the low. Before that happens, a period of precipitation is possible Wednesday night / early Thursday, mostly rain, but across the hills of far north central MA and into southern NH some icing and even a bit of snow may occur as the air will be colder there. Any icing that does occur will not last long as we warm to the 50s regionwide Thursday. We may see a 60 degree reading in a few locations, so that will be the top range on my temperature forecast. Regardless, the warm-up is to be short-lived, as the aforementioned cold front will come through here with a band of rain showers Thursday night, returning us to cool but dry weather Friday.

TODAY: Limited sun into late morning, abundant sun thereafter. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 41-48. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain possible, except some snow and freezing rain possible across far north central MA and southern NH away from the Seacoast. Lows 31-38. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A period of rain showers. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 46-53. Wind W 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 18-22)

The overall pattern remains one with frequent, fast-moving systems. Overall storm track starts to shift more to the south with some more variety of precipitation types possible in what will probably be two low pressure systems to impact the region during this period. The first one will likely be December 18 (the first part of the coming weekend) with a variety of precipitation possible. Too early to time any subsequent precipitation threats at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 23-27)

At least one more low pressure area may impact the region with a precipitation threat (increased risk of frozen precipitation being involved) with a colder trend.

61 thoughts on “Monday December 13 2021 Forecast (7:43AM)”

    1. If you read my discussion, today it meant warmer air coming in above us. Not so much trouble. 😉

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Looks like around the 21st is the first real threat of any
    meaningful snow. Just too far out to have any confidence at all.
    Just something to watch.

  8. 12Z GFS for 12/21

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021121306/207/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021121306/210/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021121306/213/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

    24 hour kuchera snow

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021121306/216/snku_024h.us_ne.png

    So the snow gets to the coast eventually. Imagine if this were to verify, but only a bit more south and east. A watcher for sure. 🙂

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  11. Vicki, I had to look up “Santa Lucia Day” and it’s the Festival of Lights celebrated today in Sweden and Norway. Was Mac originally from Sweden? 🙂

    1. Mac is from Maryland and is Scottish. His dad worked for Goodyear International and was the go to person for factories that needed improvement. They lived in Sweden from the time Mac was two (1951) until he was eight. Then to South Africa and back to Akron and then Rome. All kids returned to the states for college. The boys stayed while his sister lived in too many places for me to remember. Macs parents went on to several other countries before retiring in Charleston

    2. I forgot. By the old calendar December 13 was the longest night of the year which is why St Lucia is the festival of light

      1. Thanks Vicki. I thought that you mentioned Mac and “Sweden” from time to time here. He sure lived a lot of places before he settled down with you and raised a family. Much like a military brat does. 🙂

        As for the longest night, I believe we are in or close to that period now anyway. Too bad our daylight still continues to get shorter.

        1. You are absolutely correct that the solstice is upcoming. When the holiday originated the Julian calendar was used and December 13 was the winter solstice. They never changed the original date after the Gregorian calendar was adopted. I may be wrong but the date may also have something to do with the death of Saint Lucy.

    1. and it will be back come the next run and then be gone again, need to see what happens this weekend before we think about that one.

      1. We shall see. Frankly I’d be surprised if this were a snow
        event for SNE. Could make it a white Christmas IF it were to happen. We shall see.

  13. Reminders…
    Sun returns basically now.
    Models remain untrustable beyond day three and in some cases beyond day two… Yes it’s that bad.
    I wouldn’t even worry about anything they say.

    Everything else… Same

    1. I know, I know
      But it remains disappointing to see the run-to-run changes, almost always for the worse (depending on ones perspective)

      The Euro should be absolutely comical. 🙂 🙂

  17. Clearly, as we’ve seen for weeks on end now, our medium range guidance is having trouble picking out which short waves are worth developing and which ones are not. Never mind the timing…

    There is a certain amount of comedy in it all, right Dave?

  18. I was catching up on a few days of blog posts….I saw references to the model JMA and my screen name. Perhaps I should change my name to NOGAPS ?

    A worthless prize of appreciation to anyone who knows wat NOGAPS is or was.

    1. I remember it well. Isn’t it now called or at least its current version called NAVGEM?

      Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System
      The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System is a global numerical weather prediction computer model run by the United States Navy’s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center. This mathematical model was run four times a day and produced weather forecasts.

      2. Those were funny! I remember a bunch of them. Probably have them written down too somewhere in the “archives”!

        The original ECMWF was “excellent ‘cept moves way fast” when the model was too quick moving things along back then.

        1. NGM – No Good Model
          ETA – Erroneous Trash Always
          ECMWF – Easily Causes More Wrong Forecasts or Excellent ‘Cept Moves Way Fast
          NAM – Never Accurate Model
          LFM – Lovely Fine Model
          GFS – Good For S**t
          GFDL – Good For Drawing Lines
          WRF – Wildly Ridiculous Forecast
          AVN – All’s Very Nice
          GEM – Grossly Erroneous Model

  20. In the 1980s, I returned home (from the Netherlands and UK) for Christmas break in 1982, 1983, 1985, and 1986. I arrived in Boston around the 15th of December each time and stayed about 3 weeks. While there wasn’t a lot of snow, during each of those visits there were a few snowstorms and several days with accumulating snow. Also, it was cold to even bitterly cold occasionally during ALL 4 visits. I must say I do miss this. We just haven’t had cold stretches in December in quite some time. Yes, it has snowed, like it did last year on December 17th (?). And a few years prior to that there were some really cold days Christmas week. However, other than that it’s been a lot of ho-hum and relatively mild days.

    1. You are very correct that it isn’t the same….especially when we go back a bit further. I also miss this. I understand we had a couple of warm christmases but they were the exception. I recall one in the mid-60 time frame. Maybe 1965 or 64

  21. That’s it Dave! I did use it a bit but was always a NGM/ETA/AVN/MRF minimalist.

    As for the current model output. It is nearly worthless. GFS/ECMWF keep taking turns showing new degrees of absurdity. The GEM/CMC/RDPS or whatever it is, has been ok at times in recent weeks, so I have flirted with that here and there. Short range guidance has been messy too. Better days to come.

  22. Thanks TK.

    Well regardless of the day to day inconsistencies of the operational model runs, there continues to be growing support for a pattern change towards Christmas week and beyond.

    Judah even quoted Dave in today’s tweet….

    Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    11h

    “Holy negative NAO Batman!” The GFS is starting to predict a classical negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern with strong Greenland blocking. The pattern has been elusive of recent winters but will it couple up with the North Pacific block to party like it’s 2010/11?

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1470389828357443585?s=20

  24. Also staying with my leaning toward that different pattern, taking place in stages starting with the passage of this weekend’s disturbance.

    1. My eight year old grandson asked if it can snow four feet or six feet today. Now I can show him this. He will be happy to go with you!

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