Tuesday December 14 2021 Forecast (7:46AM)

55 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 14-18)

While an active weather pattern continues in terms of the frequency of disturbances passing by, we are about to see a shift in the pattern in terms of storm track. For quite some time we’ve seen the majority of low pressure areas passing north of this area, but a shift in the larger scale features (less high pressure ridging in the US Southeast, and more ridging building into Greenland and Alaska, we’ll see the overall storm track shift a little more to the south and the tendency for colder air to become a little more dominant. This is going to increase our chances of frozen precipitation being involved in disturbances that impact the region. We’ll see the results of this at the end of this period (Saturday). Before we get there though, we have one more system to pass to our north. After high pressure brings fair weather today behind a weak cold front that just went by, a warm front will approach Wednesday bringing cloudiness back into the region and a threat of some precipitation Wednesday night. A brief warm-up takes place Thursday behind that warm front and ahead of an approaching cold front. That front may produce a passing rain shower as it goes by the region Thursday evening, returning colder air to the region for the end of the week and setting us up for a rain/mix/snow threat Saturday as the next low comes along from the west. We’ll iron out the details of that system as we get closer to it.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 41-48. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain possible, except some snow and freezing rain possible across far north central MA and southern NH away from the Seacoast. Lows 31-38. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to W, with higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 46-53. Wind W 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain/mix/snow. Highs 32-39. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 19-23)

A colder pattern with a couple systems bringing opportunities for precipitation (including snow chances). None of them look overly powerful at this stage.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 24-28)

Similar pattern of frequent but not too powerful systems, but additional opportunities for frozen precipitation exist during this time frame.

55 thoughts on “Tuesday December 14 2021 Forecast (7:46AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Prospects of a white Christmas are looking better and better each day. Still a ways to go, of course.

  7. Thanks! If you could just make sure that rain/snow mix doesn’t affect landing at Logan, that’d be great… I know you secretly have an in with the weather gods… rest of your forecast looks excellent 🙂

  8. My eight year old grandson sent me into gales of laughter a few minutes ago. I think, without being the least not aware, he solved the wording problem that folks don’t like when someone says it feels like spring and it isn’t spring.

    He came in from taking the puppy out and said “Nana, it smells like that season that comes after winter.”

      1. He had no clue that it had been a discussion. Truth be told, I think he forgot which season came after spring. But out of the mouths.

        I love that you called your grandmother nana!!!

  16. Thanks TK.

    Despite some more favorable teleconnections, you are going to fight an uphill battle against the Southeast ridge for any significant winter weather in the East for the foreseeable future. -PNA likely to overwhelm the -NAO. Certainly not a blowtorch pattern, though not exactly cold either.

    2. Does this ever sound familiar. The pattern is changing, the cold and snow is coming. It’s coming. It’s coming. It’s coming!

      NOT! then it’s Spring. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. I don’t feel there’s a solid “thing” to follow for the 21st. It’s really just the 18th that we have so far. Something inevitably will come along behind that, but we don’t even know when the guidance will have a handle on whatever short wave it’s going to come from.

  19. One of these systems I feel like will give us snow, its just the matter of which one and how much. Is it all snow or is it a mix.

    1. Gonna need to get to 00z runs Thursday night or 12z runs Friday morning to build better than average trust on whatever might happen Saturday.

  22. I am NOT in club 60 for Friday. In fact it may struggle Thursday too, although that day has a better shot since we’ll actually BE in the warm sector. My worry is too many clouds may linger in the morning and cut down on the limited solar heating. Friday, no, not a plunge back into cold right away – it will take a while. But we’re already in a cooler air mass than Thursday and we may also end up with clouds coming in fairly rapidly ahead of Saturday’s system which may at least filter or dim the sunshine rendering it useless again.

    I’ll give Boston a 60 Thursday and 55 Friday.
    NWS’s hour-by-hour has highs of 59 & 53.

    1. I noticed that Eric was very careful to repeat chance a couple of times. This weather does give my granddaughter some great outside riding days. Sure doesn’t have a December feel.

    1. Sorry. I don’t know what 6-10 and 8-14 means 🙁

      On another topic, we went to southwick zoo for its lighting event tonight. It was quite good

  28. 1971’s record of 64 for Dec 16 in Boston will stand, IMO.
    I disagree with 2 of our local TV folks who think that record is going down. And a high temp of 60 is not record challenging. It’s 4 degrees off. That’s not “almost broken”. If it was 63, then it would be record-challenging. I learned that from the long-time MA State Climatologist, who was about as non-hype as I am. In other words, we keep it real, the way it should be. 😉 Thanks for reading my editorial. I feel strongly about this. It’s just how it is.

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