Wednesday December 15 2021 Forecast (7:35AM)

73 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 15-19)

The weather pattern of fast-moving features rolls on, but also shifts its orientation during the course of the next 5 days. This will be driven by the formation and strengthening of high pressure over Alaska and Greenland, and a weakening of the southeastern US ridge. This will allow a trend to colder weather to be more persistent in the medium term, which we will start to feel at the end of this 5-day period (or over the upcoming weekend). Before we get there though, one more storm system passing to our north will drag a warm front through the region tonight, preceded by increasing clouds today, and accompanied by a period of precipitation (mostly rain except maybe brief mix far inland higher elevations). The warm front will be followed by an unseasonably mild Thursday in which some areas may reach or just surpass 60, but not likely high enough to break any records. Lingering cloudiness early and the short daylight are limiting factors in getting the temperature to reach record-breaking levels, in my meteorological opinion. Records or not, the mild air will then be knocked down in 2 stages, first by a weak cold front Thursday night which may be accompanied by a brief passing rain shower, and likely prevent another run at 60 on Friday (50s being the rule), and then by a second cold front that comes through with no fanfare other than a bigger temperature drop Friday night into Saturday. At the same time the next low pressure system will be coming along from the Midwest, destined to take a track much further south than its predecessor (somewhat similar to the one that produced snow for parts of the region last Wednesday). This low does not look like it will be all that strong, but will carry enough moisture for a period or two of precipitation, current window looking like midday Saturday to early morning Sunday. There will be a rain/snow line to work out, but right now, this event being on day and early day 5 of the forecast, the only thing I can semi-safely say is that the system brings the potential (potential, not certainty) for a light to moderate snowfall for parts of the region this coming weekend. Fine-tuning to come of course…

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 41-48. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain possible, except some snow and freezing rain possible across far north central MA and southern NH away from the Seacoast. Lows 31-38 evening, then slowly rising temperature overnight. Wind SE under 10 MPH shifting to SW.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 54-61. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to W, with higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 51-58. Wind W 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain/mix/snow. Highs 32-39. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain/mix/snow likely. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain/mix/snow early, then clearing. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 20-24)

A colder pattern with a couple systems (clippers or otherwise fairly weak systems) bringing opportunities for precipitation (including snow chances).

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 25-29)

Similar pattern of frequent but not too powerful systems, but additional opportunities for frozen precipitation exist during this time frame.

73 thoughts on “Wednesday December 15 2021 Forecast (7:35AM)”

  4. TK, I see on yesterday’s blog your thoughts on Logan’s high temp tomorrow.

    Don’t forget about Logan’s temp sensor. It might hit 80F. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    IT “appears” that all guidance is trending towards the Euro
    Solution. Has the Euro regained its crown yet?

    I guess we shall know come Saturday.

  6. Thanks TK.

    An historic and unprecedented day of weather is expected across a large swath of the CONUS today. Probable hazards include strong tornado potential, a likely derecho with widespread 75-90+ mph wind gusts followed by a sting jet with additional gusts of similar or greater magnitude. Visibility restrictions due to blowing dust and extreme fire weather conditions are also likely.

    I truly cannot recall a setup like this or even close to it. Meteorologically, there are almost too many extraordinary things about this to keep up with.

    https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mpx&wwa=special%20weather%20statement

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

    https://www.weather.gov/

    1. Pretty amazing. Thank you for sharing.

      This county doesn’t need any additional tornadoes. Let’s hope none materialize.

    2. Thank you, WxW. Very informative and worrisome. I pray there are no more tornadoes. Sure has been a stretch of crazy weather

  14. I know Boston’s high temp for tomorrow is 64. Someone tweeted Worcester’s and I will be darned if I can find if. Anyone?

  16. Getting the idea this is one of those lows that looks like its going west of us, then gets strung out and tracks E-SE, essentially going underneath us.

    In past similar scenarios, usually there is a NW to SE strip of precip. In other words, watch out SW Maine and New Hampshire and NE Mass for trending towards less precip in the coming runs and typically, these scenarios struggle to be even moderate precip producers.

    2. TK did say light to moderate.

      Even the Euro has some mixing.

      Will it end up 1-3 or 2-4 type event with outside chance of
      3-6 ???? 🙂

  18. I find it interesting that even tough we have had a number of “snowy” Decembers this century to date, yet only 3 White Christmases. Even that last one in 2017 was literally at the last minute, only can be explained as a meteorological Christmas “miracle”. A “Hail Mary” with no more time on the clock at best.

    Doug Flutie’s “miracle in Miami” 1984 comes to mind.

  24. I don’t like wording that I’m hearing on local media today…

    Tomorrow is not going to be “very hot” and even if we do break a record in Boston I would not term it “record heat”. Those are not the correct terms/phrases to describe this.

    “Very mild” or “warm” is the apt description, and “record warmth” is also the correct phrase. The other ones are misleading.

    After reviewing the newest guidance I still feel similarly about Boston’s temperature tomorrow. I’m a little concerned that they will not clear out until late morning…

  25. Thanks, TK.

    This unusual weather, tornadoes, etc. some say are due to climate change. Doesn’t climate change happen gradually? Am I wrong that only last yr., the yr. before and so on these things weren’t happening to such an extent? I do believe the sun seems stronger – feels hotter and looks brighter. I worry that something more than climate change is afoot here and I can’t imagine what. And with the pandemic, something is wrong. Correct me if I am wrong.

    1. Oh its all linked to climate change no doubt about that. If people say otherwise they are blind. The Last few years we have seen severe weather happening during times of the year that don’t generally see it. Heck there are areas that could see severe weather with snow on the ground.

            1. I wasn’t just talking about tornado’s Ace, but if you want to get knowledge of the facts of severe weather and its link to climate change I could certainly send you by email a bunch of scientific literature for you to read up on. Just let me know what your email is. 🙂

        2. We don’t know if overall lower 48 tornado’s will increase or decrease but we have seen shifts in the tornado activity. Is it due to climate drivers or climate change is to be determined? I feel the recent dip is due to certain climate drivers. Its just like hurricanes in which there will be periods of below and above normal activity. Its not black and white, there are shades of grey.

          1. We also need to look at where and when these events are occuring. Are they happening in the normal areas and times? Or different? All these can be linked to climate change. Seasons are shifting which also invovles the weather 😉

        3. Ok. But I was talking about the time of yr. Is it below normal for these tornadoes to show up at this time of yr.? There are usually more tornadoes in Dec. in Kentucky or up in Minn. ?Perhaps I am watching TWC too much. I know tornadoes can come anywhere at any time. Seems weird but you know better than me, for sure. Just asking.

          1. Its above normal especially for these areas for December. Record breaking. I would hypothesize with the information at hand that this is due to climate change. We cannot be certain as it could be linked to certain climate drivers that have occurred over the past 5 years. I have a feeling that we will continue to see an increase in severe weather in November and December. Not necessarily in occurrence but potency as well. We could see a decrease but when they happen they give more of a punch.

            1. Thank you, Matt. That’s all I asked. I know climate change has been occurring for some time. It just seems like it has all happened quickly. I know the ice is melting in the Antarctic, too. Thanks again.

              1. It was a good and fair question. Mac started noticing a change due to pollutants from his tests several decades ago. Sadly, because we refuse to acknowledge it, we will begin to see more and more.

  27. I can’t read all of the climate change ….

    When we try to isolate one area as proof of the fact that our climate is changing, it is easy to make a false argument. We have polluted air, land and water at every corner of the globe. There is no way on earth we have not heavily impacted the climate. If it coincides with any weather pattern, it is a moot point.

    Matt, along with a wiser younger generation, please don’t give up the good fight.

  31. As SAK pointed out, strong front pulling through parts of Colorado. Denver airport reported hundreds of delayed flights and some cancellations, with wind gusts being the factor.

  32. Uh oh! Low level inversion setting up for tomorrow …. 1) It delays clearing. 2) The mixing layer will be about as thin as a layer of plastic wrap in relation to the atmosphere, which will limit the ability to warm. These are not in your favor if you are forecasting record setting temperatures. If we get to 11AM or noon and the sky is still 70% or more overcast, you can laugh at 64 and possibly forget 60 at Logan.

    I know the guidance usually under-forecast temps, but out of the 8 temperature forecasts I looked at, none of them had Boston getting out of the 50s. We’ll see how this plays out.

      1. Well, it’s still day 4, so the detailing is not really possible yet, despite what you may here in other places. 😉

        We still do it the CORRECT way here at WHW. 😉

  34. “We can do without a white Christmas if it’s going to be 60 this weekend” says an anchor on the news a bit ago.

    Well, I guess that one wasn’t paying attention. 😉

    1) Nobody previously said to him that there was definitely not going to be a white Christmas.
    2) How the heck he ended up coming up with 60 for this weekend is beyond me. The forecast high temps on that channel were 42 Saturday and 39 Sunday.

    Dave, this stuff amuses me as much as the models frustrate you. 😉

    Ok, back to my exceedingly busy day! Have a great night all!

  36. Mayfield Kentucky tornado has been rated EF4.

    They are still not sure if it was a continuous path. If I had to guess, it was not, so this was possibly not the longest tracked tornado on record, but that remains to be determined.

    1. I think you might agree that there is too big a focus on records to define the horrors of too many of these storms.

        1. Yes I am fully aware of all of that and very sympathetic to those affected but as a meteorologist I still look at the other stuff.
          Those statistics are also important. That is the science aspect of it.

          As much as I feel for the victims, I’m still going to look at it from a scientific view point, as a meteorologist. That’s what the NWS did to arrive at the EF4 conclusion.

          My thoughts continue to be with all important by those storms, and of course today’s event.

          I don’t think focusing on the science aspect takes away from the compassion any of us feel. I’m sending a donation to the relief effort.

          As meteorologists, we strive to learn as much as we can about these events so we can be prepared and warn.

          1. I completely understand. There are always times to learn but there are also times to set learning aside while we help folks to heal. . Perhaps, we disagree and that is fine also. At the moment, I think this time is to focus on the devastation. There is all the time in the world to focus on records. They just won’t go away.

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