Thursday December 16 2021 Forecast (7:30AM)

96 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 16-20)

Low pressure passes to our north today / tonight. Warm front passing by now brings morning rain. Cold front passing this evening may bring a rain shower. A nice mild day between the two. Cooler air arrives on Friday and a secondary cold front brings colder air Friday night. Low pressure tracks eastward and passes just south of New England late Saturday / early Sunday. An accumulating snowfall is likely for a good portion of the region Saturday midday through early Sunday, but a rain/snow line will be involved, with more rain than snow expected for coastal locations. First guess at snowfall accumulations will appear below but will need some fine-tuning on both Friday’s and Saturday’s updates. High pressure moves in with fair and colder weather later Sunday through Monday.

TODAY: Cloudy morning with rain tapering off. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to W, with higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 51-58 in the morning, cooling into the 40s afternoon. Wind W 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with snow/mix north of I-90, mix/rain to the south arriving by midday. Highs 32-39. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain/mix/snow coastal areas with a coating to 1 inch of snow possible, mix/snow elsewhere with 1-3 inches most likely but 3-5 inches possible interior higher elevations. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain/mix/snow early, then clearing. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 21-25)

A colder pattern with a couple systems (clippers or otherwise fairly weak systems) bringing opportunities for precipitation (including snow chances).

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 26-30)

Similar pattern of frequent but not too powerful systems, but additional opportunities for frozen precipitation exist during this time frame.

96 thoughts on “Thursday December 16 2021 Forecast (7:30AM)”

  9. It has been 54 here since 7 AM and the temperature hasn’t budged. 🙂 TK may have done it again. It will be most
    interesting this afternoon. I hope Logan does NOT make
    60. That would be so awesome.

      2. Eric kept tweeting that any chance of hitting 60 depends on whether we have sun. Makes sense. No sun here as of 10:00. Temp is 54

  11. Looking at the NAM quickly, whether the column is cold enough throughout in central MA for snow, I don’t know.

    But, inland from an onshore breeze, enough dry air (low dps) should allow for some wet bulb cooling when precip arrives. Glad I won’t be traveling in interior New England Saturday evening/night as some type of wintery precip looks like. Longer duration of freezing precip further north and northeast one travel’s until getting to all snow.

      1. Perhaps something has changed, but I think an overall performance history of the NAM has it tending to run a bit milder than what happens.

        1. Seems that way, but I don’t understand why it wants
          to track so much farther North than the other models????

  15. Hmmm, I don’t think I see any sun out there. Where did I hear that before?????????

    It has crept up to a lofty 55 here in JP.

  20. If only the Saturday system would pass another 50-75 miles further south. Another bare Christmas yet again for Boston south anyway. Oh well. 🙁

    2. There is no way to guarantee that Logan won’t have something on the ground.

      Refer to the numerous previous comments on this.

  21. Thanks TK.

    Saturday system is very typical La Nina – cold Canadian high to the north, warm Southeast ridge to the south. The ridge will generally get the better of it in this case. Should be a decent snow/ice producer for much of central and northern New England though with a widespread 4-7″ type event from the MA/NH border northward, and 2-4 (very similar to TK’s thinking) for much of central/northern MA away from the coast. I’d also be more enthused on icing potential in SNE if we had a colder air mass ahead of it, but as it is the preceding air mass will not be very cold. I’m with family in Wrentham through the weekend, may see a touch of snow/ice on the front end 🙂

    The pattern towards 12/25 and beyond is starting to look more interesting though. Recall similar veins of thought in the winter outlook between TK and myself about a burst of “front end loaded” (just not at the very front) winter weather late Dec through at least part of January…..

    1. Thank you, WxW. How special that you will be home with family. I wish you and your family a very Merry Christmas.

  27. Scary scene for the Phillipines with Typhoon Rai (Odette) making landfall as a CAT 5….

    UW-Madison CIMSS
    @UWCIMSS
    5h

    Super #TyphoonRai (#OdettePH) made landfall on the #Philippines and is weakening while moving inland. Initial impact was on Siargao Island in the Philippine Sea, as seen in this zoom sequence of Himawari-8 IR imagery. https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/2269Db

    https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1471461321036161028?s=20

    Video:

    https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1471357894729760768?s=20

    1. After an exceedingly and pretty much record QUIET Pacific tropical season, this is quite the punch.

  30. The Day 5-7 upper air pattern on most of the 12z models, the Euro and GFS especially, is *exceptionally* close to a blockbuster Northeast winter storm. Not saying that will happen (though can’t necessarily rule it out), but it’s amazing, for example, how one or two extremely subtle changes would entirely change the outcome of that Euro run.

  32. Gonna have to survive the 2:30-3:30 hour to stay below 60F. Some clearing working its way in, though the sun may be too low anyway.

      1. I didn’t hear any Mets say it would definitely hit 65. But I don’t listen to all. Certainly neither Eric or JR did. Pete has been quiet for a few days.

          1. I was careful to say I had not heard any not that no one did. I saw Harvey’s a bit ago. He should be hornswaggled

  33. At 65 providence set a record and Worcester currently is tied at 58. Regardless of records, we surely have an unusual stretch of weather.

  34. WxWatcher – not sure if you looked at the GGEM, but that model is also extremely close to a major phase and coastal bomb next week as well. Definitely a watch period around or just before Christmas.

    Even if no phase , the northern energy from the clipper alone may be enough to provide a white christmas for parts of the region if whatever falls this weekend doesn’t stick around.

  36. Beautiful in the Sierras after nearly 7 feet of snow this week!

    UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab
    @UCB_CSSL
    3h

    A new 16.3″ (~41cm) of #snow over the last 24 hours, which brings our 7 day total to nearly 80″ (203 cm)!

    We still have flurries this morning and clouds are starting to break up, which will lead to a couple days of calm weather. More snow on the way though!

    #CAwx #CAwater

    https://twitter.com/UCB_CSSL/status/1471518287037014024?s=20

    1. I completely agree with your snow forecast..

      I’m not so sure people are going to be prepared for how cold it’s going to get on Sunday night. Not that it’s severe cold, by definition, but after a mild stretch it’ll be a shock to the system for many.

            1. It was negative. I have tested myself 6 times since the start of this stupid pandemic I know it was just a cold and allergies. Which been the case each time

  43. Ch 5 indicated a low track right over Boston on Saturday. I disagree strongly. And there is not one piece of short range guidance that tracks that low north of the South Coast. It will not pass over Boston. The track will be along or south of the South Coast.

  44. Nothing like a little cold front mixing to send temps to near 60F the last few hours. Cooling aloft now, temps should start to fall.

  45. The impact to driving in the weather winter advisory impact might be a lot more significant than in most of the winter storm watch area.

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