Friday December 17 2021 Forecast (7:38AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 17-21)

Our last warm day for a while occured on Thursday. As expected, Boston fell several degrees shy of the record high for the date (64, set in 1971). It was advertised as “near record warmth” but it actually wasn’t. A high of 60 is 4 degrees shy of the record of 64, and that is not near the record. Worcester tied their record of 58. Where the conditions for getting the warmer air to the surface were better, Hartford & Providence set new high temperature records. That is one thing we have lacked during our mild autumn – record highs. So it has not been an autumn of extreme warmth, just a very mild one, overall, with interludes of colder weather as well. And now it’s time for a pattern change. Say goodbye to the milder times. While today itself will still be fairly mild to start, the trend will be down, and this is going to set us up for a bit of a winter weather event this weekend. A secondary cold front will cruise through the region later today, and then low pressure will come along from the Ohio Valley Saturday, passing near or just south south of the New England South Coast Saturday night and early Sunday. While this will not be a particularly strong system, it will have a decent shield of moisture with it, and will produce accumulating snow for much of the region, but not a “big snowstorm”. We will see a rain/snow line near the coast due to warmer air in response to the ocean water, and also we’ll have to contend with warmer air coming in from the south at mid levels, that will set up an area of sleet and possible freezing rain between the snow and rain inland of the South Coast, most likely along the I-90 belt in east central and south central MA. Travel hazards will occur on untreated surfaces, especially where temperatures are near to below freezing. Once this system exits we’ll experience a shot of colder air arriving Sunday and continuing Monday before we moderate slightly with fair weather as we head for the Winter Solstice on Tuesday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 51-58 in the morning, cooling into the 40s afternoon. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH, diminishing late.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 26-33. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow arrives during midday west to east but may begin as a rain/snow mix Cape Cod. Snow changes to rain along remainder of South Coast and eventually eastern coastal areas up to Boston, and to sleet with pockets of freezing rain possible inland from the South Coast over northern RI and northeastern CT into adjacent interior southern MA. Highs 34-41. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain coastal areas except snow or rain NH Seacoast, sleet and rain with pockets of freezing rain northern RI and northeastern CT through interior MA mostly south of Route 2 with mostly snow to the north, all tapering off to a few rain/snow showers toward dawn. Snow accumulation for the event under 1 inch immediate coastal areas, 1-3 inches away from the coast except 3-5 inches north central MA through interior southern NH. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with a chance of a few snow showers except rain or snow showers Cape Cod early, then sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 22-26)

Temperatures near to below normal. Watch for disturbances with possible periods of snow or snow showers. No solid indication of bigger snow events at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 27-31)

Similar pattern of frequent but not too powerful systems with additional opportunities for some snow or snow showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

40 thoughts on “Friday December 17 2021 Forecast (7:38AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Harvey really blew his temperature forecast “new record” setting high of 65. He may have been the only met to go that high.

  5. Do you all recall the Mullica Hill, NJ tornado from awhile back?
    It was farther back than I thought, Sep 1st I believe.

    Here is a video.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wI0Dmnot1QA

    The reason for the post was the cry wolf syndrome of the modern NWS tornado warning system.

    I was talking to an old black jack colleague the other day who happens to reside in Mullica Hill. During the conversation I asked him about the tornado. It turns out it passed by the next street over from his house. I asked him if he received a warning and he said ” oh sure, yes, but nothing ever happens so I IGNORED it”

    He was very fortunate.

    This guy is very intelligent and holds a high level position.
    So if we get very intelligent people totally ignoring these warnings, I would say something is wrong.
    Not sure what, but the system isn’t working.

    Wxwatcher, I thought you might be interested in this.

    1. Thanks for sharing, JPD!

      Yes, he is fortunate. A somewhat curious statement considering tornado warnings in NJ aren’t especially frequent. A small portion of Mullica Hill was hit by another, much weaker (EF0) tornado in, I believe, June 2019. That one was also correctly warned. There were probably one or two false alarms in the interim. Unfortunately, tornadoes are so small that even in an “accurate” warning, many people won’t be directly impacted. We’re encouraged to keep Tornado Warning polygons as small as reasonably possible, which is definitely a practice I’ve tried hard to uphold on the surprisingly high number of occasions I’ve had to issue the product myself.

      On the other hand, our survey team for that tornado received a compelling firsthand account of a man, his wife, and 2 or 3 kids who received the warning and sheltered in their basement. Their home was leveled. They all survived with hardly a scratch. We had zero fatalities from that strong EF3 tornado, really a miracle in that area of the country. In fact, we’ve had only one documented tornado fatality in our CWA this year despite 2 EF3 and 3 EF2 tornadoes, a mind-boggling number of strong tornadoes for the region. There’s definitely some luck involved there, but the numbers could’ve been so much worse. Unfortunately, during the September 1 (remnants of Ida) event, the flooding proved to be far deadlier.

      1. WxWatcher,

        I do hope you understand that this comment was in NO way a criticism of you or your office. I happen to think that you and your colleagues do a fantastic job!

        It was more pointing to the general public, as that is where
        the problem lies.

        Perhaps some sort of education promotion?

        1. Of course! And thank you. At least locally for us, I think a lot of good educational material will come out of this year. And if nothing else I think there will be, at the very least, a short term improvement in tornado warning response given the destruction we saw this year. But it will remain a delicate balancing act especially in the modern era of improved detection of weak tornadoes.

  10. As wxwatcher and TK have pointed out, as pertains to snow and the column temperature, victory to the southeast ridge.

    As pertains to the surface, as Lee Corso says, “not so fast, my friend”.

    The cold high is likely to win inland at low levels, especially with the low redeveloping along the south coast.

    CT river valley, interior north-central MA probably with more of a short term impact compared to all snow areas due to sleet or frz rain as they will struggle to get to 32F.

  12. I think I saw someone post yesterday about a set-up 6-10 days out to keep an eye on that isn’t far away from forming a significant storm.

    I think that set-up continued on the 00z GFS around Dec 23rd.

    As I recall, the southern stream system deepens to 988 mb, passing a decent distance SE of us and there are signs of a northern stream system approaching from the west and northwest, generating some light snows in northern New England.

    Yes, the models arent reliable more than 48-72 hrs out, so we have 3-4 days before we can take anything remotely to heart.

    But, I do think this is something to watch the trends on.

  13. Thank you Tk.

    I have a busy week coming up and snow this weekend wouldn’t help. Keep it rain and let’s go for a big snowstorm near Christmas.

  14. According to Logan’s ob, it did make it to 60F sometime in the pre-dawn hours early this morning.

    Day #6, I believe this month.

    Probably won’t get (6) 60F days at Logan next May. 🙂

    1. AJ Burnett did a study on snowfall when Boston gets to 60 or above at least 5 times in the month of December and the result at the end of the season was well below normal snowfall with all in the 30-inch range iirc. The lone exception was 2008-09 when 65.9” fell. If I recall, that December 2008 was also quite snowy, but I could be mistaken also. It may have been January 2009.

  15. Its stunning.

    I remember the days when the GFS took until 24-36 hrs before an event to get to what the EURO was showing 3-5 days earlier.

    Now, its a complete 180.

    Remember the Euro’s colder solution for tomorrow’s system. Gone today, today’s 12z EURO looks just like the GFS.

  16. Today is December 17th, 4 days from Astronomical Winter.

    Current Boston Buoy water temperature: 50.00 F
    Average: 44.45 F
    Departure: + 5.55 F

    PATHETIC!!!

    Snow? What’s that? I have no clue.

    1. For you Math Weenies out there,

      That is nearly a + 3 Standard Deviation departure.
      That is quite significant and meaningful.

  17. IMO, today’s warmth is more impressive than yesterday’s. Post cold-frontal in mid December and it has felt genuinely warm outside with the sunshine. Yesterday felt a little raw until very late in the day with the clouds sticking around.

    There’s been some ups and downs, but this month has been solidly on the warm side of normal. We’ll likely eat into that positive departure towards the end though.

    Long range models continue to really struggle. The early-mid next week period, while still technically close to being a major storm, appears unlikely to produce. A colder trend is definitely in the works, but prevailing northwest flow aloft argues for more cold and dry than cold and stormy. As TK has been saying, there should be some opportunities for minor systems, and snow will likely be favored over rain. But it wouldn’t shock me if after tomorrow we have very little precipitation at all through New Years…

    2. Honestly at this point I rather some consistent cold for snow making. Get some manmade pack powder down. Warm, Cold, Warm cold tends to cause slush and ice spots. If not cold and snowy, keep it cold and dry.

      1. Eric’s a little late to the party. TK and I were already talking about that 2 days ago. From my blog yesterday afternoon:

        “There are plenty of models out there showing a decent snowstorm, especially across the interior. We’re not buying it. We think they’re underestimating the mild air aloft. A quicker change to sleet and/or rain than what some of the models are showing seems more likely, especially the farther south and east you go.

  20. I turned down my first snow overtime tomorrow. It’s still a weird feeling that it’s not mandatory for me in my new position . I got 20 hours in last week so I’m good .

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