Tuesday December 21 2021 Forecast (10:59AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 21-25)

This 5-day forecast takes us from the Winter Solstice (which will be occurring moments after I post this blog, which I got a late start on today, due to a sunrise trip to the NH Seacoast to put my feet in the icy Atlantic water, then a diner breakfast after that. 😉 The solstice occurs at 10:59 a.m. EST today – “the shortest day of the year” in terms of daylight. We already saw our earliest sunsets about a week before this, but we’ve been trending later with the sunrises still, so that we reach our minimum today, and then, very slowly, we start trending in the other direction. The beginning of winter is also the beginning of the long journey out of the “dark days”. But as we all know here in New England, our harshest winter weather will often occur during the first 2 or 3 months of this celestial journey. Do we have any harshness coming up between today and Christmas Day (the end of this 5-day forecast period)? Well, not so much by New England standards, no, but we will see a couple of weather events during this time frame. Let’s outline how I expect it to take place. First, a dry solstice today as high pressure slips off to the south of New England. The air will be milder than yesterday’s chill – a little irony in that the final day of autumn will be colder than the first day of winter, but you know that’s not really unusual in day-to-day weather. Next up, we watch a storm system skirting by to our southeast Wednesday. This storm is failing to combine significantly with energy to the northwest, so we just get a glancing blow from its precipitation shield, which will be mostly rain, but surface temperatures will be cold enough so that some icing may occur over inland locations during the morning hours. Keep this in mind if you are driving or walking on untreated surfaces. That storm system exits the area in a hurry Wednesday afternoon and evening with a return to dry and seasonably cold weather here, which will set up a fair and chilly day for Thursday. We’ll be seeing a little bit of a blocking pattern setting up late this week, with high pressure in eastern Canada. As this happens, low pressure approaches the Great Lakes and its frontal boundary will be trying to push east and northeast, but running into high pressure will turn into a strung-out boundary with disturbances moving along it. This will translate into a couple of precipitation opportunities Friday and Saturday (Christmas Eve & Christmas Day), some of which will likely occur as snow as it should be cold enough. Temperatures will be more marginal the further south you go so some rain may be involved as well. Fine-tuning of timing and precipitation type will be done as we get closer. This will not be a major precipitation event, so travel impact should be minimal.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Scattered rain and freezing rain overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy morning with periods of rain except pockets of freezing rain possibly mixed with sleet interior eastern and central MA and southern NH. Clearing afternoon. Highs 35-42, except 42-49 Cape Cod & Islands. Wind NE 5-15 MPH morning, NW 15-25 MPH afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of light snow overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE): Cloudy with a chance of light snow morning. Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow late evening and overnight except rain/mix South Coast. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Cloudy. Periods of light snow/mix except mix/rain South Coast. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 26-30)

A disturbance and incoming cold air bring the chance of snow showers December 26. Generally dry and seasonably cold weather is expected thereafter, though we may need to watch for a weak system to impact the region at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

Variable temperatures, averaging close to normal. One or two disturbances may bring precipitation threats but while somewhat active, the pattern does not look particularly stormy.

42 thoughts on “Tuesday December 21 2021 Forecast (10:59AM)”

    1. They have the math equations that calculate the total distance the earth travels in its orbit.

      They know the earth’s velocity and can calculate to the exact moment, the time when the earth is most centered in its tilt away from the sun.

      Given its average distance of 93 million miles from the sun, my guess is its about 5 days, with the solstice in the middle, where the earth is at full tilt away from the sun.

      Imagine you being at one end of a long street and the sun is at the opposite end of the long street, if you moved a bit across the street, from the sun’s perspective, you probably won’t have looked to have moved much. It would take you moving off the road some, for the sun to see a change in your position.

      Sorry, I love this stuff !

        1. I guess I assumed mathematicians, scientists, astronomers, or anyone with a strong mathematical background would understand the equations and maybe could even come up with it.

    2. Maybe that’s a good thing if anything beyond 3 days is highly questionable.

      Maybe projecting nothing will turn into something, since lately, we have seen promising things on the models eventually resolving to nothing.

      1. If we can get a nice thick coating of snow I’ll be thrilled and consider it a “Christmas miracle”.

        I’m afraid the days of waking up to a winter wonderland of a solid 6-12” of snow on Christmas morning here in SNE especially are just memories from our youth, well for some of us. Oh well.

        1. No they’re not.

          If you actually look at the number of years that Boston has had six or more inches on the ground on Christmas morning… There aren’t many.

          But, there is no way that you can say that those days are over.

          It is not getting less snowy.

          In fact the last 30 years have been one of our snowiest 30-year periods.

          This has a lot more to do with long-term cycles than it does anything else.

          You do realize that just a few years ago from Boston north and west had a thunder snow blitz in the morning on Christmas.

          Local media has been somewhat misleading regarding snowfall at Boston. They’re going by Logan and they’re going by 1 in or more on the ground at 7:00 a.m. on Christmas..

          In 2017 they ended up with a white Christmas that wasn’t counted as a white Christmas because the snow fell after 7:00 a.m..

          We can’t just draw these definitive conclusions with a fraction of the evidence that we need to do so.

          1. For me, the best weather for Christmas was many years ago when I was a youngster in upstate NY. When I went to bed on Christmas Eve, no significant snow was predicted. Then I woke up early on Christmas morning and there was about a foot on the ground and it was still snowing like mad. Now with all these highfalutin weather seers, that is never likely to repeat!

  8. https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=A0geKeh6HsJhvmAAaAtx.9w4;_ylu=Y29sbwNiZjEEcG9zAzEEdnRpZAMEc2VjA3Nj/RV=2/RE=1640140539/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2fwww.sciencedirect.com%2ftopics%2fengineering%2forbit-formula%23%3a~%3atext%3dThe%2520orbit%2520formula%252C%2520r%2520%253D%2520%2528h2%2520%252F%2520%25CE%25BC%2529%252F%2cposition%2520of%2520m2%2520as%2520a%2520function%2520of%2520time./RK=2/RS=co_QYqVn2oJ7P6_axW0N.2sha5Y-

    Orbit formulas (way way way way above my math ability)

    1. Awesome!
      Pretty complicated math. I had some courses where the Math
      looked similar to that. May have been Real Analysis, don’t remember. I wouldn’t know where to begin with that now. I could stare at that for a month and not even be able to get started,

  10. Growing up, I used to get a bike for Christmas every couple years or so, and like clockwork, there was always a good amount of snow on the ground on those Christmases that I got my new bike. Naturally I wanted to try it out right away around the yard, but usually couldn’t. It seemed on those Christmases that I didn’t get a new bike, bare ground with mild temps. Go figure. 🙂

    I still say that our Christmases are much milder, far less snowy overall these days. I hope the old timers here at WHW will agree. 🙂

    1. I loved getting a bike for Christmas. I continue a tradition my mom and dad started with our kids. There is one last present Christmas night. I now call it the nana, Bampa present (my mom and dad). Two of my six grandkids are getting bikes.

      1. I think it over strengthens a Great Lakes system to 985 mb and sends it ESE along the New England South Coast and its an eventual rain-to-snow in eastern areas with 6+ for a large swath.

        I think the more data fed 00z and 12z runs have a similar scenario, just a much, much, much weaker system with scattered snow showers, mix or even a bit of light rain.

  15. Love these days. Feel alive. Certainly not too cold, but just cold enough to be invigorating when doing outdoor activities. With the low sun angle the puddles that froze over remained frozen all day (this would not have happened in March if the temperature hits 42F). Saw swans `skating’ across a thin layer of ice. All vegetation is dormant at this point. Leafless trees have a certain beauty, especially around sunset.

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