Thursday December 23 2021 Forecast (8:30AM)

75 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 23-27)

We sit on the cold side of a frontal boundary and will spend most of our time there during the next several days. High pressure brings fair but cold and breezy conditions today. A wave of low pressure moving along the frontal boundary to our south with trigger a period of snow Friday morning with minor accumulation, whitening up the ground for Christmas Eve. Another low pressure area will approach from the west by early Christmas Day (Saturday), bringing more unsettled weather to the region, but with warmer air moving in aloft, while many areas may start as snow, a combination of sleet, freezing rain, and rain will likely take over the precipitation. The good news is that this will not be a big storm system. However, it only takes a minor amount of frozen / freezing precipitation to cause travel hazards, so those with plans to drive or walk need to keep this in mind as we head through Christmas Day. The low responsible for this will intensify once offshore Sunday, but will be moving away quickly. This will make for a cold and gusty day, and an upper level disturbance may trigger a few snow showers. Behind all of this, high pressure should bring us a fair and chilly day Monday, but with clouds moving in as the next disturbance approaches (though timing and confidence on the strength and track of any system beyond just a few days out is low due to the ongoing near uselessness of the guidance).

TODAY: Sunshine dominates but high clouds increase later in the day. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Light snow arriving west to east overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind diminishing to calm.

FRIDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE): Mostly cloudy with light snow ending from west to east during the morning – accumulation of a coating to 2 inches expected. Clearing afternoon. Highs 30-37. Wind calm then NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Clouding up. Snow arriving late evening or overnight, accumulating a coating to 1/2 inch, changing to sleet / ice / rain especially south of I-90 toward dawn. Lows 25-32 evening, rising slightly overnight. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E overnight.

SATURDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Cloudy. Periods of snow/mix to ice/rain southern NH, mix to rain elsewhere, may tapering off but changing to a few snow flurries later in the day. Highs 35-42, mildest South Coast through midday, cooling later in the day. Wind E shifting to N increasing to 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow showers. Lows 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)

Two disturbance may bring episodes of precipitation during this period. Neither look like major events. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 2-6)

Variable temperatures, averaging close to normal. One or two disturbances may bring precipitation threats. Guidance will be of no help at this time.

75 thoughts on “Thursday December 23 2021 Forecast (8:30AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I agree with you about the “official” definition of a White Christmas. Not sure I agree about a covering of snow on the ground for Christmas Day. I guess if enough falls Overnight on Friday, I suppose. Hope so.

    1. Temps will be in the upper teens to middle 20s when it falls and barely back to freezing or slightly above during the day. The ground will be quite cold by then. It will take treated surfaces to melt it. The sun angle will do nothing to get rid of it, especially for the few hours of sun we will actually see Friday afternoon.

  3. So, this is that colder pattern that was spoken of previously, along with better opportunities for frozen stuff falling from the sky. Caution was thrown out about the difficulty in timing systems, which of course has been the case all along (see previous comments on other posts, though you probably don’t need to).

    We’ve also seen over and over the example of the uselessness of the guidance beyond just a few days.

    I hope nobody took the phrase “better opportunities for frozen precipitation” as “better chances of big snowstorms”. The two only remotely go hand-in-hand, and definitely not in this particular pattern / regime.

    I agree with SAK’s comment on the previous blog post of the core of Arctic cold being destined for west of the Rockies, and while it was not really easy to determine where that might go once it got close, it’s certainly no surprise, again given the pattern. A lot of your long range forecasts going into winter hinted at this – and that is what we are going to see take place. This is really what long range forecasting attempts to do. None of us are trying to detail things to the letter – we can’t! When I put my snowfall number down for the contest, it’s a fun guess, based on what I think the winter will bring. It may as well be a random guess for how difficult (or nearly impossible) it is to actually forecast a number such as that, months in advance. Would I change my guess at this point? No.

    1. She may still get her wish. 😉
      I don’t think E is “greedy”. The West Coast girl’s ultimate experience – seeing snow falling on that morning while in New England. I’ve never lived on the West Coast but I definitely know how her mind works. 🙂

    1. Those forecasts are for Jan- Feb-Mar FYI.

      The only good thing about this forecast for me is that we booked a ski trip to Utah this March. It’s looking like we picked a good year for it.

        1. We are staying in Sandy (just outside of Salt Lake City) which is a short 30 min drive to the Little and Big Cottonwood Canyons where Snowbird, Alta, Solitude and Brighton are. We are only going to have three days so I am hoping to get to 3 of the 4.

          We bought IKON passes this year and all 4 of those mountains are included as well as several in New England including Stratton, Killington, Sugarbush, Sunday River and Sugarloaf. We are going to try and get our money’s worth!

    2. That looks DISGUSTING!
      Can we declare Winter over now and move onto Spring?
      That’s probably when we get our snow. 🙂

      Ha ha ha

      I have to just laugh about it all. Nothing I can do about it.

  11. Thanks TK.

    TK – How was it determined over the years that 1” is the minimum benchmark for an official White Christmas?

    Imo even 0.5” can make a landscape pretty especially with the low sun angle.

    2. Other than “someone” in NWS or a climatologist deciding that, I’m not really sure. I guess they just decided that you need an average of 1 inch on the ground to make it look “snowcovered”.

  16. Don’t worry once i leave Mass to go back to the Virgin Islands you will get a bunch of snow. Watch within a few days of me leaving the big one hits

    2. As long as that SE Ridge remains in place, it won’t matter how far away from Mass. you go.

      I would say a “normal” snowfall season is already dwindling at this point. Already one third of “meteorological” winter is over, for all practical purposes. No, I haven’t forgotten March, still…

      1. We’ve had above normal snow seasons with a “SE ridge” in place. It’s not an automatic winter killer.

        And given we’re only 48 hours and change into winter, we have quite a long way to go. 😉

        Dismissing winter before we have gotten a few steps beyond the starting line with only one reason is generally not going to work in one’s favor. 😉

        2. I’ll have to remember that about the SE ridge. With all the talk about that on the blog over the years, I assumed that configuration was preventing snow events around here. Gotta blame something though. 😉

      2. Only takes a month to go crazy for above normal snowfall for the season. We have had years in which most if not all the activity happened within a month. There was a year that was looking like this and was even warmer with no wintery precip in December. Expect more prolong periods of certain weather patterns as climate change continues and weakens the Jet streams. The large ridge S/SW of Alaska is due to the very warm SSTS and the cold spot southeast of Alaska. That interaction is helping maintain the current pattern. If we could just get rid of that very cold anomaly off the coast of Canada/southeast of Alaska away we would likely see that ridge shift east which there are signs of that happening as we go through winter.

  17. My Weekend Outlook is up:

    https://stormhq.blog/2021/12/23/weekend-outlook-december-24-27-2021/

    As for winter being over – On January 23, 2015, Boston’s total snow for the winter to date was 5.5″. Everyone (even folks from the NWS) declared that winter was essentially over already, and below normal snowfall for the winter was a virtual lock at that point. On March 3, 2015, Boston’s snow total for the winter to date was 107.3″. Please, keep telling me how the chances for a “normal” snowfall this winter are dwindling.

    1. It seems like year after year after year, regardless of the pattern and the outlook, I’m all over the internet explaining to people why we can’t declare winter over before it’s pretty much even started…

      It’s a lesson that is never learned apparently.

      Yup, some years not much happens…
      Most years, at least something happens…
      Some years, quite a bit happens… As noted above in your example.

      Thank you for the update!

    2. Yes, that happened. But you certainly don’t expect anything remotely resembling that to happen this year.

      No Matter how you slice it, this year will suck for snow. Whether we end up with 5 inches or 30 inches it will suck.

      2. Snowfall through 12/31/17 – 9.2″ Seasonal total – 59.9″
        Snowfall through 12/31/16 – 5.9″ Seasonal total – 47.6″
        Snowfall through 12/31/14 – 2.9″ Seasonal total – 110.6″
        Snowfall through 12/31/12 – 3.8″ Seasonal total – 63.4″

        That’s 4 times in the last decade that Boston was in single digits for snowfall at the end of December, and ended up with above normal snowfall. But please, keep telling me how it’ll be shocking if we even get close to average,

          1. You just make me smile. Never change, OS, and please never let anyone tell you that you should. There are many many special people here, but I’d I had to choose one who is the heart of whw and has been from day one…it would be you

            2. 2012 is an analog year for many for a reason….. SAK. Most on here know the stats but we are frustrated snow lovers and want snow. Its a weather blog and there is good reason to feel that we could see below avg snowfall

              1. If 2012 is an analog year, and it had snowfall that was roughly 20″ ABOVE normal, then why is there good reason to expect below normal snowfall?

                1. 2012 was the winter that saw almost no snow. I remember well as I was a senior in high school and wanted as many snow days as possible as I would not have needed to make them up. 2012 had 9.1 inches of snow in Boston.

            3. Well, and TK. He has definitely been here since day 1 and is definitely the heart of whw…. Not that I don’t enjoy your posts jpdave….

                1. Julie….My thinking which can be incorrect…..TK created this blog. It is his baby. That is why I think of him as the brains. Without JPD and his many posts and passion, it might not pulse as it does. That to me makes him the heart. There are other parts of a heart. Mark surely adds tremendously as do Tom and JJ and WxWatcher and Matt and JMA and you and …..well, there are too many to list, but you know them all Some come and go but then that is family.

  19. I’m really enjoying walking my dogs without the fear of falling on the ice. I wrote earlier on this blog how I fell on the ice while walking my dogs. I fractured my right ankle two hours of surgery with ten screws and two plates in my ankle. As far as I’m concerned I hope it stays this way the rest of the winter. That wish probably won’t happen as the example of 2015 winter. Merry Christmas to the awesome folks that post every day.

    2. You know how much I love snow, but for you I’ll take the hit and have little or no snow. 🙂

      Hope you ankle is doing well.

        1. Ankle injuries are the worst and takes for ever to heal. No matter what they tell u it never fully heals, just to many veins muscles lingaments etc

  22. There seems to be a misconception that light rain with marginal temps will melt snow away. Not really. It will turn it wet, but it won’t really melt it.

    Also, to hell with the definition.
    Boston had 3 inches of snow on December 25 2017. That was their last white Christmas as far as I’m concerned. 🙂

  23. 00z GFS indicates 1 to 2 feet of snow for much of SNE on its run (through 384 hours). LOCK IT IN! 😉

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