Sunday December 26 2021 Forecast (8:00AM)

37 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 26-30)

The Christmas event was a little more potent than even our best short range guidance indicated, representing the second significant failure by short range guidance in as many months and reinforcing the idea that even that needs to be taken with some salt grains in this pattern, which will continue for some time to come. We see improvement today as our most recent system moves away to the east and a bubble of high pressure moves in later today into Monday. It’s important to note that some areas, especially west and north of Boston, still have ice on untreated surfaces that will take a while to melt away, but should do so for the most part by later today… We’ll be eyeing two low pressure systems for this 5-day period as we head down the home stretch of 2021. The indications are that neither of these will be major systems, and that the first one will be in the process of dissipating as it passes by Monday night and early Tuesday, and the second one will also be weakening but may have more moisture with it as it comes through the region Wednesday. Fine-tuning will be needed…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a brief period of light snow possible. Lows 23-30. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix north, mix/rain south. Highs 35-42. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain/mix/snow evening. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

Two disturbance may bring episodes of precipitation during this period, favored times around January 1 and 4. Neither look like major events. Temperatures variable, averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 5-9)

Variable temperatures, averaging close to normal. One or two disturbances bring precipitation threats.

37 thoughts on “Sunday December 26 2021 Forecast (8:00AM)”

  2. The GFS keeps targeting January 2-3 for a powerful, yet messy system. It’s had something impressive in that time frame for several runs in a row now. That of course means that it’ll likely be sunny and in the 50s, but it’s fun to look at for now.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Boy did the short range guidance blow the snow forecast for early this morning. At the Southern extent of it.
    Last HRRR i looked at at 1 AM called for 2 1/2 inches for Boston. I woke up to zilch How did North Shore do?

  4. Thanks TK
    This day in weather history the Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010. This kicked off a six week snow blitz.

    2. This is a sad day in local history. On 12-26-2010 a Woburn officer was killed by a robbery suspect after the police broke up an in-progress robbery at a local store.

      He wasn’t even supposed to be on duty that night He was helping out for someone who couldn’t be there.

      I worked with his son.

  6. Thank you, TK.

    I’m so sorry to read your account of the 2010 incident in which a Woburn police officer – who you knew, as you worked with his son – was killed by a robbery suspect.

    Back to the weather. I was able to drive to and from Rhode Island yesterday; fairly slowly as there were a few slick spots. I liked it that the digital highway signs warned of “black ice possible” and “reduce speeds.” These signs do have an impact, as I didn’t see crazy speeding yesterday. And, there was the proper `social distancing’ between cars. Had no-one tailgating me. There was clearly more snow from the Christmas Eve event in Rhode Island than the Boston area, by the way.

    1. Wonderful news. I was awfully worried about anyone on the roads. My DIL said she didn’t have a problem from Lincoln to Westerly, RI. And they all returned here late afternoon.

      It was the second icing event north of us in the past week.

    2. I was nearly run off the road twice yesterday in what were 2 very short trips (to work, and from work).

      Ironically, but not necessarily coincidentally, both times it was by a nearly middle aged male driving a pick up truck. I say not necessarily because I don’t believe it to be a coincidence that I have been observing middle aged male pick up truck drivers to be the most angry, least patient, and most dangerous on the roads in recent months. I have had numerous encounters, none of them of my own doing, with them. I’m not sure if there’s a secret “angry pick up truck driver lets drive like asshats” society out there, but it sure seems like it. Calling it like I see it. And I’m out on the road A LOT. 😉

  8. I kept watching my weather system dashboard yesterday, waiting for it to move upwards from 30. It didn’t. Nor has it gone down. Seems it decided to stop working. I can’t think it is frozen. Fortunately, the kids gave me a second system for Christmas. It doesn’t have all the bells and whistles, but our WiFi range stinks so it won’t frustrate me as much either

  9. Thanks TK !

    I´ll tell you one area that is getting snowmageddon in this pattern, Fairbanks and central AK.

    Usually kind of dry in winter, they keep getting occluded fronts coming in from the west, sending maritime air off the Bering Sea up and over arctic air and are getting tons of overrunning snow and decent for them, precip events (.5 or so melted).

  10. That period from New Years Day to January 4 certainly has my eye. Teleconnections, other parameters and ensembles are just saying something is POSSIBLE in that time frame that is of interest. Possibly one of the more decent signals so far this year this far out from the period. Lets see if it stays that way as we all know how the guidance has been lately.

  11. Continued run to run inconsistency beyond the “normal” for all models, especially GFS. No trust. This has proven to be the right meteorological decision for some time now and I don’t see that changing any time soon.

    2. Ensembles of GEFs, GEPS & EPS are showing signs of something in that time frame just something to watch, but the parameters could be there for something in that time frame. Not saying its going to happen or if something is even going to be there in that time frame. It is just something to watch. I am not even looking at operational due to that inconsistency. Also how many seasons do we see bad model performance, we go that route of not trusting the models and thats when we get hit by the big one. Maybe this is the one, maybe its not we just won’t know until we get within a day or so of the event because of the cruddy model performance this year.

      1. They do, and I have been eyeing that for a while myself, but even they are less consistent than usual, and we can’t even really see beyond “the chance of something”. 😉

  13. Thanks TK. Sounds like you, SAK, and myself were all on duty yesterday. Such is life in this field 🙂

    I didn’t see any snow accumulation reports from Boston north from last night either; NWS Boston didn’t release a list at least. A few of the ASOS’s north of Boston reported a couple hour periods of snow, so there was something, but I can’t imagine it added up to much. Short range guidance struggling as much as the longer range stuff, though to be fair the inverted trough setups are never high predictability and tend to underperform. The freezing rain certainly delivered yesterday though.

  14. Forecast-wise…

    The final days of the year will look much the same as most of the past couple months, a Southeast ridge dominant pattern with minor precipitation threats.

    Longer range… to me. if nothing else, the pattern looks cooler and less hostile for wintry precip relative to what it’s been. But that’s not saying a whole lot, and we’re certainly getting into the peak climo window for cold/snow now as well so you’d expect it to look better. There may be some more substantial storm systems over the East heading through next month relative to the many minor systems we’ve seen. For the foreseeable future though, to me inland areas look to be heavily favored for the wintry outcomes. The continued -PNA will help keep Arctic air out of the East, and the Southeast ridge will remain a player and favor a coastal or inland storm track.

    1. Thank for all of the good news. 🙂
      I am not holding my breath for any meaningful snow in SNE, at least coastal areas.

    2. Thank you WxW for your thoughts, and as usual, I generally agree. We both (and the other mets as well) know that all it takes is one slight anomaly though to produce a significant snowstorm, for example, and we’ll be on the look-out for that as well. I suspect if something like that happens, we won’t “see” it coming very far in advance. But that’s part of what makes doing this fun (along with frustrating at times). 😉

  17. One of the last places you would think of to have an NFL snow game but it is happening in Seattle as Seattle is taking on the Bears.

  19. Love the Seattle weather this week. Below freezing until next weekend, and several more snow chances.

    Clearly, the pattern is good for snow and winter lovers in the Pacific Northwest, but not so in the Northeast.

    There’s a lot of very cold air due north and northeast of Seattle. But it appears that this large cold air mass doesn’t really make any incursions into our area. It’s `trapped’ across Eastern BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and even parts of Manitoba and Western Ontario.

    1. Oh, it’ll get into the Northern Plains too. As I’ve mentioned before, I forecast for a few radio stations in North Dakota. Here’s what the GFS has for Langdon, ND (home of KNDK radio) this week (morning low/afternoon high):

      Monday: -14/+15
      Tuesday: -23/-5
      Wednesday: -26/-15
      Thursday: -27/-14
      Friday: -30/-27
      Saturday: -30/-5
      Sunday: -32/-5
      Monday: -16/+2

      For those of you scoring at home, that’s approximately 170 consecutive hours below zero. These are actual temperatures, not wind chill.

      1. Wow. Close to a week at below zero temps. We would not handle that very well around here. Below 20 is bad enough.

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