Monday December 27 2021 Forecast (7:26AM)

40 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 27-31)

The final 5-days of 2021 will present a continuation of the weather pattern we’ve been in: Frequent weather systems passing through, no major storms in terms of powerful low pressure areas, but plenty of things to keep track of. The ridge of high pressure in the southeastern US remains a major player in the large scale pattern while we see some seriously cold air enter the western US, helping to fuel the contrast that keeps these systems coming. Locally, we’ll only see minor impacts from these systems as there is not much support to keep them healthy as they move through the region. After a nice but cold start today, we’ll see clouds move in ahead of the next disturbance which will result in a little bit of snow, ice, and rain tonight, depending on your location. A second impulse will come along later Tuesday night into Wednesday, producing a minor variety of precipitation. Despite these being “minor” events in terms of strength and duration, both of them can become a little more significant in that they both bring threats of some icing conditions away from the immediate coast where freezing rain occurs, so travel hazards for walking and driving on untreated surfaces exist for both late tonight into Tuesday morning and again early Wednesday. The air should warm enough so that the next threat from a system moving through on Thursday should be mostly in the form of light rain, but temperature may also be marginal for icing over some interior areas for this, depending on its timing, so we have to keep an eye on it too. It looks like an area of high pressure should bring dry weather at the end of this 5-day period as we reach the final day of 2021 on Friday.

TODAY: Sunshine followed by clouds. Highs 31-38. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Late evening and overnight light snow to freezing rain except mix to rain South Coast region and South Shore of MA. Lows 22-29 evening, rising to 30-37 overnight. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with spotty light freezing rain inland and rain near the coast early, then partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Light snow/ice/rain possible overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light mix/ice away from coast, rain coast, mainly in the morning. Highs 37-44. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain, may start as freezing rain away from the coast. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 1-5)

New year, continued active pattern, as we watch for precipitation events on New Year’s Weekend (January 1-2) and another toward the end of the period. The confidence is low on any forecast out beyond a few days still, so won’t try to guess on any details for these events. Variable temperatures averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 6-10)

Pattern remains active, temperature trend appears to be colder.

40 thoughts on “Monday December 27 2021 Forecast (7:26AM)”

  6. Thanks, TK.

    And SAK, thanks for sharing the information on the cold in the Northern Plains. I should have mentioned that, too, when I posted about the cold air mass in Western and Central Canada.

    As folks at WHW know, I would not mind an extended period of bitter Arctic air. In fact, I’d love it. Alas. lots of upper 30s and low 40s around here. Not deviating much from our normal highs, by the way, but much too warm for me.

  7. Thanks, TK!
    Happy Holidays to all!

    Hope everyone had a special day on Saturday!

    My YouTube channel has been sending me livestreams of lands way north of us in recent weeks. Not sure why, but I thought some on the WHW network might like to take a peek at the:

    Nuuk, Greenland airport:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gzj8WhyH2Sg

    Zero Point, Levi, Finland (which looks like a ski resort):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LwihxyJ4V20

    Santa Claus Village at the Arctic Circle, Rovaniemi, Lapland, Finland.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VClJIez-w6Y

    When I see the name Nuuk, I can only think of and chuckle at The Three Stooges (nuuk, nuuk, nuuk!)

    2. These are awesome. Thank you. The Finnish ski resort looked like a picture perfect post card. And I really want to go to Santa village. I promise not to dance in front of the camera though.

    3. Awesome webcams! Love the atmosphere at that Finnish resort, apparently that is the largest downhill ski area in Finland. A tattooed guy with no shirt on just started waving his arms on the Santas Village cam though which kind of ruined that one for me 🙂

    3. The first cam of the base area is incredible with all that snow piled up on the awnings and entrances to the buildings. And the snow continues to come down.

      The resorts out there are closed not only because of the wind/power outages but because there is so much snow they cant get the lifts dug out and the avalanche risk is extreme.

  14. 12z GFS is snow to mix to rain with the New Years weekend storm and now a miss to the south with the second follow-up system.

  18. Alpine Lodge at Palisades Tahoe this AM. I wouldnt even know where or how to begin attempting to dig this out.

    Palisades Tahoe Mtn Ops
    @palisadesops
    1h

    The Alpine Lodge this morning. Photo by Pat Fraser.

    https://twitter.com/palisadesops/status/1475497927434903558?s=20

    And check out this video one of the groomers took yesterday near the summit, insane!

    Palisades Tahoe
    @palisadestahoe
    23h

    Winds are gusting over 100mph and visibility is nearly zero on the mountains. Thank you to our teams for battling this gnarly storm! Movie camera: Palisades Groomer Bandit from last night. #palisadesops

    https://twitter.com/palisadestahoe/status/1475161835804315651?s=20

  20. A little bit more consistency across the operational 12z runs (Canadian, US, European) for the system to open up 2022. I like a slightly weaker and more progressive (but elongated) system. Probably not a significant snow producer – however as we know, it’s far far FAR too early to have any measure of confidence about that part. Just kind of how my feeling is on its eventual play-out.

    1. As long as it’s an ALL snow producer and just covers the ground white. Amounts don’t really matter for now.

      1. It’s honestly way to soon to know about anything being an all-snow producer here. This pattern doesn’t support those right now for most of SNE.

        I remember having this pattern so many times as a kid (you know, back in the years that a lot of people thought all it ever did was snow, when that was actually NOT the case). I remember my brothers lamenting quite often about how it always warmed up for the storms so we’d have rain then get cold right after… 😉

        Of course that didn’t happen “all the time” either. We had our snowy times, and our snow droughts… It’s just the way it goes here – it’s the way it’s always gone here. Stats will show that.

  21. CPC is getting a little less shy about putting more below normal temperature areas in their extended forecasts, not only for 6-10 / 8-14, but experimental 3 week (how long is that going to be “experimental”?) and even their 1 month and 3 month outlooks. After a long run of slapping above normal pretty much everywhere and having to be wrong and/or correct, these look a bit more reasonable. The winter forecasts by most mets (except one) have long indicated most of the cold this winter might very well be concentrated in the northwestern and north central US with shorter bouts of cold further east and of course the anomalous cold shot further south in the western US, with the southeastern US least likely to see below normal temps. So far, this is the pattern early on.

  23. I assume the above is to show that the Southeast will be “chilly” … Yup. That’s not the long term pattern though. 😉

    A 12-hour period does not break a long range forecast. The SE Ridge is still a major player. I underestimated it myself at first. But now it keeps our current pattern virtually unchanged through the first week of January.

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