Temperatures Up & Down, No Major Storms

85 Comments

3:06AM

A warm front will cross eastern MA today with some snow (little accumulation) to mix. Low pressure passing to our north will push its cold front through during Wednesday, accompanied by rain showers due to a very mild air mass which will be over the region. High pressure will slowly build in and dominate the weather Thursday through Sunday. Low pressure will pass just south of New England Thursday and will try to skirt the South Coast with some light precipitation but it is not expected to be far enough north to bring anything into the Boston area. The next storm threat would be Monday of next week but it is far too early to tell any detail about that potential system. The overall weather pattern remains quiet.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Cloudy through midday with areas of light snow accumulating less than 1 inch, especially north of the Mass Mike.  Snow may end as a mix or light rain. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny remainder of the day. High 42-47. Wind S-SW under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 35-40. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers through mid afternoon. High 52-57. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH shifting to W late.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. High 40-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 40.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 35.

MONDAY: Chance of snow or rain. Low 28. High 38.

85 thoughts on “Temperatures Up & Down, No Major Storms”

  2. Thanks TK !

    All 4 southern New England reporting climo stations are sitting at +4.6 to +5.1F Jan. anomolies as the last day of the month occurs. Ironically, Providence has the “lowest” anomoly at +4.6F, but probably has the best chance to get a very mild afternoon high temp today.

  3. I’m looking forward to tomorrow’s high temps, region wide. Current temps are in the mid 40s to low 50s from just north of Chicago, eastward into central Michigan. Also, its noticeable on satellite that there’s not a lot of cloud cover in the warm sector area. Will be interesting to see what today’s high temps are in Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit and Cincinnati area. If those cities are say, 60 to 70F later today………….I think I heard Boston’s record tomorrow, Feb 1, is 66F.

  4. Thanks TK.

    Appears to be a very tricky forecast over the next days or so. I think this will be our opportunity for any type of major snowfall in February. Who knows for march.

  5. A watcher for early next week but needs to be taken with bucket loads of salt. The Thursday night system looks to track a little too far to south to have a major impact on SNE.

  7. The reality was that this air mass in place for most of southern New England isn’t favorable for WAA snow. Areas north of us have a more arctic like air mass, which is what you want to have for WAA snow.

  8. Tweaked the forecast to indicate an even more minor event for today (which was never more than minor anyway). Have a great day all!

  9. It’s interesting how Worcester is at normal snowfall yet it feels like a drought. I guess it speaks to just how anomlous last year was. I know the total includes the October storm but the storm did happen nonetheless.

    That said, with an average of between 65-70 inches per year, depending on who you read, we’ll get behind pretty soon. We’ll eventually need an equivalent October type storm to keep up or make up. Can someone remind me what the Boston total is so far?

  10. As discussed over the weekend, this weeks events are all non-events for the most part. GFS advertises a storm next Monday with rain on the coast and 4-8″ of snow inland. It lacks support from the GEFS, ECMWF OP and its ensembles, the GGEM, you name it! The closest I can find for model agreement with OP GFS is the GGEM ensembles which deliver a much weaker glancing blow with about .25 QPF at most for next Monday. ECMWF ensembles continue to advertise the idea I trend towards favoring which is after a brief cool down in early February that will essentially be dry, another extended period of anomalously warm weather should take hold around mid month or so.

  11. That should read after a brief cool down in early February, which should pass essentially dry, another anomalously warm period should take hold.

    1. JMA….

      Do you see the fairly benign and mild pattern continuing right into spring? It’s sort of a leading question, I know. I’m wishcasting for that to be so since it’s not snowing much anyway. I’m hoping for a nice spring at this point.

  12. Not good news from you JMA if any of us are hoping for snow!!! You see any chances over the next 2 weeks before a warm up occur again?

  14. WW seems very confident in something for February, clearly JMA is not as bullish and TK is on the fence about storm potential. Can’t wait to see what happens.

    1. Hadi if you know how to invite someone here could you post it to baileyman on wbz, tell him to respond to the email address. He said he will come over and TK said it was him. I am heading out for the day, will check in later.

      1. If you can think of a question to ask him, so we know a troll does not respond. It was him that responded to me. he said he never saw an invite from me. TK may know what to ask him.

  15. Even a Minor event doesn’t pan out! What a Winter season!
    0Z NAM nailed it. It had any snow going North, even though radar
    looked like it was going to hit us. It figures.

    I don’t trust any of the models. Disparity among models is unreal. What do you believe, if anything.

    I guess we just sit back and wait to see what happens. In the meantime I hope
    it breaks 60 tomorrow!!!! Let’s go for it!

  17. OS I do not believe any of them at this point!!!

    I do though trust in our mets here even though I am not happy with what they are advertising!!!

  18. Hadi-below is what I wrote about the 2/11-2/12 on Sunday, and nothing has changed my thinking in the last 48 hours. My expectation after that would be that warm air floods into New England and above freezing temps will reach into Canada. Potential Ohio Valley storms will track to the north and west bringing rain potential after 2/11-2/12.

    I don’t see much potential for the weekend of February 11th and 12th. What I see is cold temps crashing into Washington and Oregon, suppressing west coast storms into Central and Southern California. This tends to not bode well for storms that generate in Southern US and into the Tennessee Valley. It tends to set them off on a more easterly trajectory instead of the NE one that you need to get a snowstorm in New England. So a storm ejects itself off the coast of NC and any secondary redevelopment or bombogenesis happens too far south and east. Combine that with the potential for a clipper or trough north of us during that time, which would further suppress and kick east any southern stream storm, I lack any confidence in that weekend.

  19. Thanks TK and Thank you everyone!!

    I have a question and may have asked it before but if I did can’t remember the answer.

    Historically when there is a storm in October, the following winter season is below normal. I’m thinking this is not just a coincidence. What would cause that to be the case?

  20. Will we get some snow? Of course we will. Could there be a significant one? Hard to tell, but all it takes is some cold air around and one storm to eject off say the New Jersey coast.

    However, when in drought forecast drought as the saying the goes, which really means bowing to the persistence of the pattern. First the pattern was going to change mid-December, i think after that is was late December, then early January, then mid January, then late January, now sometime in February, see a trend here? So instead of bowing to pressure to forecast hope, bow to the pattern and forecast persistence.

  21. Vicki-There is analog data that supports the idea that significant pre-season snow leads to a lack of snow during the winter season.

    2. Thanks JMA but I’m not clear on why it happens. I’m not a big fan of coincidence – especially since the pattern is holding true this year also – so figure there has to be a reason.

  22. As I posted last night, NOAA did some flights out into the Pacific to gather more data for the computer models which are struggling so much in this current pattern. Supposedly, this will help the models perform better in the near term, starting with last night’s GFS. Maybe now it will just perform badly instead of horrendously!

    1. Didn’t help the 0Z run of the GFS which forecasted this morning’s
      event to bring snow to Boston and points South. NOT!!!

  24. today: mostly cloudy slight chance of a snow or rain shower. highs in the mid 40s
    tonight: cloudy lows in the mid 30s
    wednesday cloudy in the morning with a chance of a light shower highs in the mid 50s
    wednesday night partly cloudy lows in the low 30s
    thursday becoming cloudy late a chance of late afternoon showers as a cold front moves through highs in the high 30s
    thursday night mostly cloudy lows in the mid 20s
    friday sunny with highs in the upper 30s
    friday night through saturday night partly to mostly sunny with highs in the upper 30s and lows in the mid 20s
    sunday partly sunny highs in the mid 30s
    sunday night becoming cloudy lows in the low 20smonday cloudy with a chance of rain highs in the low 40s
    I am not seeing any real possible winter storms anytime soon with in the next 10 days

  25. 1. 7.8″ = 2011-12* (so far)
    2. 9.0″ = 1936-37
    3.10.3″ = 1972-73

    More bad news…I just heard on WEEI that Matt Light is sick. He did not take the podium as required by the NFL. We just can’t ever catch a break whenever we play the Giants…always something. 🙁

        1. Vicki, it could be a HUGE deal if he infects the rest of the team. Hopefully there will be a quarantine set up for him while he recovers.

          1. Philip goes without saying. I was just responding to OS’s concern about Light specifically. And he has plenty of time to get better.

            I should tell you that you are talking to a germaphobe so I would hope they have moved him away from the rest of the team 🙂

  26. superbowl prediction based on GFS. (I threw out the Euro and too far ahead for NAM)

    Weather: Fair
    Temp: 70F
    Wind: 0
    Score: pats 32…giants 22

    1. I’m going with a 70/30 blend of the GFS and EURO (to account for Matt Light’s illness)

      Weather: Mostly cloudy with an increased chance of sacks
      Temp: comfy air conditioned 68’F
      Wind: 5mph – generated by the Pats offense as they breeze by the Giants D.
      Score: Pats 27 Giants 20

        1. oh, and we forgot about qpf which the gfs has at .25″ at end of game from tear accumulation from Giants fans

  28. Melissa’s morning blog is quite bullish for snow for early next week. The only issue is which day of the week basically. It will happen either Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday depending on which model…take your pick. If this came from Barry or even Joe, I would perhaps feel quite confident of a snow event happening even given this sad winter.

    Very surprising that Melissa would stick her neck out so far in advance in this way. Even NWS has very low confidence for now and HM is getting close to giving up on winter entirely.

    1. Poor Henry, just watch his latest video and he’s going to need some meds… or more meds by the end of this winter! Just kidding 🙂 I actually enjoy watching Henry. He’s good for a laugh and sometimes even gets the forecast right.

  31. As the only non Patriot fan here on the blog and not a Giants fan either, I would be very worried about the Giants folks. Eli Manning took a beating last week and still had a great game, go ahead and stop the run and then you have to deal with two of the best recievers in the game. The secondary of the Patriots has not stopped anyone this year. And as the Ravens proved last week Brady can be stopped. Not saying the Pats lose, but seeing you guys thing 7 or 10 point win for the Pats is a little far fetched IMO.

    1. Every game hadi u have said this, broncos and ravens uve said this, u r a silent patriot hater, Patriots have dominated the NFL for 15 yrs, 6 superbowls in 15 yrs!!! Sorry about the redskins, u need to start a chant to get Snyder out, he’ll never win again, have a great day hadi and enjoy ur passion for the weather but certainly not sports as I live an die with the Patriots during season, take it easy 🙂

      1. Nothing against the Pats, I am an objective viewer. And yes you guys were lucky to beat the Ravens. You can’t see an opposite view just like me when talking Skins.

        I never brought up the Skins in this conversation. I live and die with the Skins as well. Plus many other sports that I follow.

        1. I don’t mean to talk bad about redskins as I have nothing to hate them for, yes I understand as an objective viewer and hope u have a great day 🙂

    2. Hadi – I think pats fans are definitely not giving Manning his due and that he needs to be taken very seriously. And the Pats have not been on their game with defense this year and you are right about Brady. My feeling is he is struggling with that left shoulder and he landed on it very hard first quarter last game. The game isn’t a given by any means although it should be a good one.

      1. Don’t involve me in that, I give manning all the credit in the world, he’s a good qb and is dangerous but as a patriot fan I’m not gonna sit here and talk about how good the giants and manning are, no team makes it to this point without being good, but I’m a Patriot fan and all I’m saying is they have a shot if they play a great game, if they don’t win then they probably still made it further than most and probably made it further than u thought, THE PATRIOTS ARE IN THE SUPERBOWL,,, AGAIN!!!!!! Take it easy Vicki and as always I enjoy your conversating 🙂

  32. HM’s enthusiasm is fantastic. I like him for the entertainment value. But, his predictions are not so great.

    Too bad this winter is turning out to be such a no-show, but there are more important things in life. And, for those of you who like to drive (many hours) there’s always Presque Isle, Maine, where a major winter storm will hit (probably over 12 inches when all is said and done). It’ll be in the teens tomorrow and snowing heavily. Talk about a temperature contrast across New England: From the teens up in Presque Isle to the 60s in Connecticut. I’ve seen temperature differences like this before, but usually in late March and April.

  33. Oh, I totally being a yahoo Hadi. And it might be close and they could definately lose it too. My hope is that Manning puts up a stinker which he’s still quite capable of doing–I think the media has forgotten that in the fog of their recent wins.

  34. Brady never has two bad games in a row, at least not that I can remember. Now, this does not guarantee a victory, but it bodes well for the offense. My worries center around the Patriots’ defense. I was horribly wrong when I predicted that the Patriots would not go far in the playoffs due to their defensive deficiencies. They’ve proven me wrong. Perhaps the Broncos and Ravens did not have stellar offenses, but the Patriots did an excellent job containing the offense. Let’s see how they fare against the Giants. I’m going with my gut here: Pats 31 – 20.

    1. Joshua – Since I’m superstitious I won’t go into specifics but I agree totally with your comment and I too didn’t think we’d get this far because of the defense. Wrong or right, it should be a great game. I’m really hoping it won’t be a blow out on either side. Both are champion teams and I hate it when one just doesn’t get it done for the biggest game of all. That said – GO PATS!!!

  37. Thanks for the good wishes yesterday. I really appreciate that. I am feeling better today, ‘though I still have some pain. Late last week, putting together laundry I moved the wrong way and felt a wrenching pain in my right side. I put ice on it right away but it didn’t help. So, it’s been lots of fun. Being sarcastic here. Fortunately, I can take aspirin and that has helped along with rest. So, typing a lot or doing anything, especially re: my right side has not been fun. But I am better – ‘though my lower back occasionally hurts – prob’ly due to how I am moving around – too slow. (I tend to move fast, walk fast, etc.)

    John – How is your hand? My husband has had his cataract surgery delayed ’til April. Thanks for asking.

    Vicki – glad you are home – sad that your vacation is over. I bet you miss the beach.

    Can’t type much more for now – will prob’ly post tomorrow. Rain and mild temps. tomorrow – and it is Feb. Wow – what a Non-Winter! 🙂
    Go Pats! 🙂 🙂

    1. Hi Rainshine – wow – that’s pretty scary. I’m glad you are improving but sorry it is not more quickly. It’s good to see you here. Take care. I don’t have a car at the moment – my son who has a motorcycle and doesn’t want a car in Boston has had it for about six weeks:) – but it returns on Thursday. If there is anything you need during the day, please give a hollar. We are only a few miles from each other. I’m assuming you are on your own and may be wrong but either way please do not hesitate!!!

      1. Thank you so much Vicki! 🙂

        My husband is been very helpful- acutally he’s been pretty much of a saint, helping me!

        And – you should know, that if you ever need anything, let me know, too. My husband is around most of the time as he is retired and on a disability (10 yrs. ago he crushed 2 discs in his lower back). And I am currently unemployed so I am around a lot (except when I volunteer) and do my writing!

    2. It’s fine you are very kind. I hope your back feels better soon. How is your husbands chrons, my wife just started a new iv treatment.

  39. Pretty good punch of sunshine into the region and look at the temps responding, though I think I’m actually witnessing a January 31st seabreeze in Marshfield……

    Upper 50s to near 60F west of our region. Tomorrow’s going to be very mild !! If the breeze tomorrow is more westerly than southwesterly or southerly……….

      1. I don’t think we break any records tomorrow. The key is how much sun comes out tomorrow and what time
        does the cold front come through in determining how high the temperatures are tomorrow.

      2. I would have felt better about it if either Pittsburgh, Cleveland or Detroit had hit that (mid 60s) today. Instead, it appears they are all closer to 60F and I dont think the airmass is destined to warm up much more as it heads eastward. A downsloping westerly breeze could add a few degrees, so, the record, I’d say no, but 60F to 63F is quite possible.

  40. Meanwhile, up in Northern NH and Maine, its in the low 20s with light to steady snowfall. So, 3 hr drive to the north is winter.

  41. So basically, with all the model upheaval lately, it boils down to no change in the long run. No snow…..shots of cold, but when a storm goes by, its likely we are in the warm sector and a continuation of very little precip……..yes ?

  42. I’m often amazed at how vastly different the temps can be between here and far northern New England. Hartford is reporting 56 right now while it’s 16 in Caribou Me.

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