Wednesday December 29 2021 Forecast (7:46AM)

29 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

The remains of a low pressure system exit today but clouds hang in after the chance of an early snow flurry. The next system in the string of disturbances arrives Thursday, but this time the atmosphere will be warm enough to support just a light rain event. A bubble of high pressure brings a drier day for the last of 2021, though the clouds may be stubborn to let go. As 2022 arrives, the pattern will stay the same, and the next low pressure area, this one with a bit more moisture available, arrives on New Year’s Day with more rain. Behind this one another low should pass to the south of New England on a trailing frontal system, but far enough away to keep its main precipitation off to the south and east while we just see rain showers on Sunday from an upper level disturbance, which may end as snow showers as colder air arrives.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A few snow flurries around early. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Light rain mostly midday and afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain during the evening. Mostly to partly cloudy overnight. Areas of black ice forming. Lows 27-34. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 36-41. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Increasing clouds. Lows 29-36. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 42-49. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain showers, may end as snow showers. Highs 42-49 morning, falling into the 30s during the afternoon. Wind variable becoming W increasing to 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 3-7)

Same overall pattern. A colder/dry interlude followed by moderating and another precipitation (favoring rain) chance later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 8-12)

Pattern remains active, temperature trend appears to be colder, potentially increasing opportunities for some snowfall.

29 thoughts on “Wednesday December 29 2021 Forecast (7:46AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Pattern my be “active”, but it is BORING!

    If it’s not going snow, then let it be Spring.

    GFS showing signs of “some” snow down the road. ha ha ha
    Sure.

  3. Thanks, TK

    I heard them treating the roads about30 minutes ago. They did our small neighborhood twice so I’m thinking driving isn’t great.

    They may have treated earlier. I just wasn’t awake

      1. We are still negative 40 on my accu 🙂 🙂

        But we are out and about. Roads seem ok. Snow mix in colder Sutton center

  11. CWG has declared winter to be nearly half over… HAHAHAHAHA!!!!
    It boggles my mind that people think winter starts in October now. That’s freaking bizarre.

    1. I started seeing people posting about the CANSIPS and CFS models showing above average Precipitation in the tropical Atlantic sayin they are worried for next hurricane season. its not even the new year. It like those groups that try and make winter forecasts in August. :/

      1. Yup! Well we know why almanac forecasts are totally unreliable. They are made in July (or before) and published in late August. Good luck! If they are right, it’s by accident.

        I’d rather be wrong using science, and learn from it, than be right by blindly guessing or using extremely limited info, which is basically almost a blind guess…

        1. Agreed, Science learns and changes if it learns something they thought was right is not, they go and fix it, of course that brings a whole bunch of BS from the general public that don’t understand the scientific method. (Peer review portion particularly.

  12. Mid 70’s all week here in Chapel Hill. Lows won’t drop under 65 but please keep saying everything is fine.

  13. GFS – still OTL.
    Other medium range: Ok, better at least.

    Don’t agree with NWS about Friday.

    1. all the rain and snow they are having I hope helps them with this years fire season. Even though it is just one season, I am hopeful for their sake even if its detrimental to us snow lovers here in New England. They desperately needed this rain and snow.

  15. Sooooooo. Does one think Mother Nature has any plans to stop the wet evenings. I would really like to be able to sit out…..even whatever is making lots of noise behind the house. I miss fresh air

  18. I am not sold on all this extreme warmth for this weekend and next week. Complicated set that is for sure and models are in flux and their are signs every where that it might not be as warm as we have been thinking not necessarily snow for say but cooler heck may even be cold with a system slipping to our south which would make the blood in this snow lover and skier boil. 😉

  19. Looks like Boston will land at #15 or #16 rank on the wettest years list. Not overly impressive given the wet summer and pretty much “guarantee” to hit #1 according to so many people. Nope, sorry. This is another example of why I say things like lets not make conclusions like that when there is still so much time left to go. We’ve had quite the dry back side of 2021. Things often do balance out, and while 2021 will be a “wetter than normal” year, it’s going to turn out not to be all that excessive, and far from the top 5 wettest…

    5: 1955 at 56.50 inches.
    4: 1953 at 57.73 inches.
    3: 1958 at 61.35 inches.
    2: 1954 at 62.32 inches.
    1: 1878 at 65.53 inches.

    Interesting statistic that 3 out of the top 5 can be put together for the wettest 3-year stretch on record (1953-1955). Like the 1930s, the 1950s were a remarkable decade for various extremes. As will be noted in future shared emails from a colleague, extremes have always happened in weather, and it must be noted that “worst ever”, “most ever”, etc. is not exclusive to the 21st century. It’s all about specifics, and you can find plenty of extremes looking all through our recorded history, which is a surprisingly short period of time, which leads one to possibly conclude that maybe “abnormal” is actually “normal”. Hmmmm… 😉

  20. Looking ahead to New Year’s Day, will we challenge any extremes? No.

    Wettest: 1982, 1.38 inch rain.
    Most snow: 1938, 8.0 inches.
    Coldest: 1918, -3F.
    Warmest: 1876 at 70F (talk about a long-standing record!)

    Boston’s expected high temperature will be middle 40s with a light to moderate amount of rainfall on January 1 2022.

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