Saturday January 1 2022 Forecast (10:45AM)

51 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 1-5)

Welcome to 2022! Happy New Year to all! We’ll start the year with weather that reminds me of New Year’s Day 1985, except with a slightly more uniform temperature profile. Back on that Tuesday in the mid 1980s, we had a low pressure area passing to our northwest with warm air aloft. A warm front was struggling to get through parts of the region, which were stuck in the upper 30s as high pressure in eastern Canada was sending a little wedge of low level cold down across parts of the region. Eventually everybody warmed into the 50s once the front went through on that occasionally rainy day with drizzle and fog. We have similar weather today, but the colder air is stuck further north (from about Manchester NH northward), so the WHW area is a little bit more uniformly in the 40s to around 50, and these temperatures will not change all that much today, and even tonight, when we get another surge of rainfall from the passing low. Sunday, a transition begins, which the low’s trailing cold front pulls through the region and temperatures that remain steady for a while then start to fall. Most of the moisture associated with the current system will have exited by the time this front is making its way across the area, but it may produce some rain showers during the day and as colder air comes in a follow up trough can trigger a few snow showers during Sunday night. Monday will feature mid-winter cold, but it will be fleeting, as we moderate rather quickly Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next approaching low pressure system, which may bring rain showers by Wednesday.

TODAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of drizzle and fog. Highs 43-50. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 38-45. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Areas of fog early. Highs 45-52 occurring in the morning then falling slowly during the afternoon. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 6-10)

Watch for some unsettled weather with us near a boundary of mild and colder air in the January 6-8 time frame, leaving the door open for rain, mix, or snow. Fair, colder finish to the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 11-15)

Mid January has a colder look to it, and some questions remain as to our snow chances, as it looks a little on the drier side of average, but this is LOW confidence so don’t draw the conclusion that there are no chances for any wintry weather.

51 thoughts on “Saturday January 1 2022 Forecast (10:45AM)”

  1. Hi TK, this is my third comment and they seem to be not showing up. Perhaps they are going into moderation?

    In any event, Thanks for all you do.

    1. My earlier thoughts: what a great resource you provide here on the blog,, learning something every day! Thanks so much.

    2. I don’t see anything in moderation, so it may have been a WP glitch. Wouldn’t be the first time and most certainly won’t be the last. 😉 I have a love/hate relationship with WordPress.

      And you’re welcome! It’s the contributions of all that make the blog what it is. And I very much value the great information provided by my fellow mets, including the emails I share from a colleague of mine who does not choose to write on the blog themselves (which is fine). 🙂

      1. No idea what I’d do without this intelligent and kind community that TK created. First to ward off my fear of inclement weather – now also with Covid. Thank you TK for your work and commitment on our behalf – can’t say it enough.

  3. Thanks for the forecasts while I was here! Not quite as much snow as we’d hoped but appreciate the flakes on the 24th. Back to copy editor mode 😉

  5. Puck drop forecast temperature for tonight’s NHL Winter Classic in Minnesota (Wild vs Blues): -5F. That ought to make this game an instant classic as the coldest outdoor NHL game.

  6. Thanks TK and Happy New Year everyone!!!
    TK I look forward to reading your weather predictions for 2022. I also look forward to reading anyone else on the blog who makes predictions. Here are mine.
    No double digit snowfall events for the rest of the winter
    This will end up being a top 10 least snowiest winter on record
    First month of spring will have temperature swings but by late April spring will be in full force
    First widespread 90s mid May and I am thinking inland areas could get a heatwave
    20-30 90 degree or higher days this summer. Normal thunderstorm activity. No widespread severe weather outbreaks
    The hurricane drought will continue for another year
    Classic fall weather won’t arrive until the middle of October
    First flakes late November
    We will be once again dreaming of a white Christmas
    A widespread 6-12 inch snowstorm will happen just prior to New Year’s Eve

  7. Thank you, TK!

    My eyes didn’t open until close to 9:00. But I was awake and enjoying listening to the birds chirping. For a minute, I thought we may have gone from Winter 2021 to Spring 2022. Then I worried a bit that I had slept a few extra months.

  10. Thanks for a great year of forecasting, TK.
    Also, so glad that you have done better health wise.
    Happy new year to you all!

  11. Guess for the year.
    1. Once I leave to go to St. Thomas in mid January within a week or two you will get a big snow storm with a foot+ in SNE.
    2. End up around average snowfall because of a couple big storms.
    3. Cool start to spring, wet then dry.
    4. Dry summer. Above average temperatures. severe weather threat for New England higher than normal.
    5. Hurricane or tropical storm hits or close to hitting New England.
    6 Yet another active hurricane season but not as active as the last two.
    7. Warm start to fall but it cools off second half.
    8. snow a few times before Xmas.

    Side note, for the west, fire season won’t be as bad this year than the previous 4.

  14. Thanks TK! Happy New Year all!

    Much as we’ve seen the models struggle, the late week period looks quite conducive to a snow event in SNE. Would be quick hitting (+NAO) and not “huge”, but wouldn’t be surprised if we get a pretty solid event in that timeframe…

  15. TK’s only initially scientific but increasingly less scientific predictions for 2022…

    * Most of our snow for this winter will occur during a 2-week period in January and another 2-week period in late February to early March.

    * The final days of winter and first days of spring will take place during a very long precipitation-free period.

    * April will be warmer than normal, and May uncharacteristically cool to the point that the 2 months may have the exact same mean temperature in most of the region.

    * Summer 2022: Cooler than normal, but also dry enough to put the region back on the edge of drought. Heat will not be completely absent, but will not be persistent, coming in short bursts..

    * Tropical season: Quiet Atlantic, and New England’s landfalling hurricane drought will continue.

    * New England tornadoes: 3 or 4 during summer, 5 or 6 for the entire year, which is below normal.

    * The only heatwave of the summer comes in early September.

    * October sets a record for both the hottest and coldest temperatures ever recorded for the month at several southern New England locations. The record heat will be around October 4. The record cold will be around October 29.

    * November will be chilly and dry but most remembered for having more total precipitation fall in the form of snow than rain at Boston, however with no significant snowstorms.

    * December 2022 will feature a split jet stream flow in which we’ll be missed by 4 potential snowstorms but still end up with above normal snowfall for the month because of an extremely active polar jet stream with clippers and snow squalls in abundance, along with the most persistent December cold since 1989. Some people will consider changing Boston’s name to Buffalo Jr. 😉

    That’s it! Now we’ll see most of these not come true. 😉

  17. It might be my favorite WHW tradition so of course I’ll bite on the semi-scientific 2022 predictions, which like TK get progressively less scientific with time 😉

    *Winter will arrive this month, and will hit hard for a time (maybe starting Friday!). Colder air will make appearances for more than a passing day, and snow risks will increase. Enough to get our snow totals up to normal? Not for the season as a whole, but maybe for a time.

    *February-March will be anomalously warm. February 2022 could be among the warmest on record *if* the January winter burst gets done with us in time. Could be a colder/stormier interlude in March, but the winter ultimately finishes with above normal temps and modestly below normal snow.

    *An uneventful mid-spring (April-May) with no notable temperature or precipitation anomalies

    *Peak convective season (late May-July) features below normal thunderstorm activity and possibly features some drought development across the region

    *Summer 2022 features above normal 90 degree days, but won’t be overly harsh with more in the way of warm but drier Canadian intrusions as opposed to Gulf of Mexico soup. Drought may develop or worsen.

    *The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season features above or well above normal hurricane activity and will be a costly one for the CONUS, but pattern will favor Gulf or Southeast US strikes over Northeast.

    *October will be the wettest month of the year and will feature the best chance for any tropical impacts in SNE. Any drought from over the summer improves or ends.

    *Winter 2022-2023 will be colder and snowier than the past 3, and will feature more in the way of sustained colder weather and storm threats, starting as early as late November and likely by December. Think a 2012-2013 rebound to 2011-2012, but an earlier start…

  19. It probably won’t happen but that would be something if D.C. and Baltimore get to above normal snowfall for the season in just two storms. This happened in those areas back in January 2016 with just one snowstorm.

  20. Thank you TK for all of the hard work you put into this blog. I also want to thank the other Mets who contribute valuable knowledge and info here.
    My wishes for a happy and healthy new year to all on this blog!

  23. I’m going for something on Friday. Im using the LEGNA model For this one. It was accurate for December 9 after all. So Matt…maybe you will have the snow doe your ski day

      1. Yikes. I can’t believe he is old enough for his license. I took my test on December 1…..when we actually had snow in December….and there was a storm. The fun part was stopping and starting on a hill using the emergency brake when my dad’s car’s emergency brake popped up once car was in drive.

        He will do fine. Driving in snow if you have a December license is really important

        1. Indeed he is Vicki . He will be 18 in April & graduation is set for Memorial Day weekend . Where does the time go .

          1. I’m absolutely shocked. I remember when he became a teenager….I think about a year ago.

            Just amazing SSK

    1. NWS actually going with “snow likely” and 60% probability for my area on Thursday night. Surprisingly high confidence at this lead time, especially the way models have been performing in the mid-long range.

  26. GFS and EURO trending slower & further northwest. lets see what happens tomorrow but wouldn’t count out a couple of inches Cape, islands and southshore.

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