Monday January 3 2022 Forecast (7:45AM)

92 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 3-7)

Low pressure moving rapidly northeastward will pass southeast of New England today. With cold air in place, the northern edge of its precipitation shield will be in the form of snow and bring an accumulating snowfall to the islands of Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard and a minor accumulation to the immediate South Coast of New England during the day today. We may also see some coatings of snow on the MA South Shore due to some ocean effect snow shower bands that may set up there as the day goes on. This will also be our coldest day we’ve seen in quite some time with pretty much the entire region failing to reach freezing and many areas staying in the 20s. The exception is Cape Cod and the Islands which sit just above freezing as of sunrise but will see the temperatures go down a few degrees during the day with the help of snow falling into air that is drying out at the surface resulting in cooling. The temperatures will moderate to a more seasonable chill on Tuesday as high pressure brings fair weather. This high slides offshore and moisture streams northward ahead of an approaching cold front on Wednesday, parented by low pressure that will pass north of our region by early Thursday. So Wednesday will be unsettled but mild, and Thursday will turn fair and cooler as the cold front pushes offshore. We’ve been watching the late week period for a storm threat, and as is to be expected, model guidance is all over the place solutions, so for now I’ll just keep the idea of unsettled weather with a chance of some snow/mix/rain for Friday, then fine-tune as we go along this week.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers possible MA South Shore with dustings. A period of snow South Coast and Cape Cod (accumulating a coating to 2 inches) and the islands (accumulating 2 to 5 inches, heaviest on Nantucket). Highs 25-32 except as high as 35 Cape Cod / Islands early day. Wind NW to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill often below 10.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the evening. Lows 33-40. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow/mix/rain. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 8-12)

Fast-moving systems. Fair/cold January 8, milder January 9, next frontal system brings chance of mix/rain showers later January 9 to early January 10, fair and colder to follow, and another disturbance may approach late period. This is not a high confidence forecasts with unreliable guidance, mainly developed due to pattern anticipation / timing.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 13-17)

Mid January trends continue to look a little cold, and questions remain as to our snow chances, as it looks a little on the drier side, but this remains a very low confidence forecast.

92 thoughts on “Monday January 3 2022 Forecast (7:45AM)”

  8. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Sure looks like it wants to snow. too bad this system is so far off shore.

  10. As of 11am, not precipitating on Nantucket and the dewpoint depression is 11F.

    I wonder if some backing off of the warning on Nantucket may be considered soon.

  13. The Mid-Atlantic storm today should be a cautionary tale for us up here. It wasn’t until the 18z runs on Saturday that the models started showing the potential for heavy snow into DC for today, less than 48 hours from the start of the storm.

    When I left the office Saturday afternoon, we didn’t have much, if any, snow in the forecast for our radio stations in DC and Rehoboth Beach, DE. When I got in at 3AM Sunday, we still weren’t sure that they would see much, as some models had a sharp cutoff just south of DC and some north of DC. That quickly changed during the morning as more and more models showed the potential for heavy snow, but at that point, we were less than 24 hours away from the first flakes.

    My point is – we have had this happen numerous times in the past where storms have seemingly appeared out of nowhere around here just 2 or 3 days in advance. They were always there, but the models weren’t handling them properly. Its the same old tale – the upper air disturbance responsible for the storm is still out over the Pacific. Once it reaches the West Coast, the models finally start to converge on a solution as we have better upper-air coverage, and can sample it better. This is the main reason why the models tend to be horrible with storms more than 48-72 hours out in the winter. It happens at other times of year too, but it’s much more noticeable in the winter when precipitation type is more of a factor, among other things.

    1. I will add, normally, when I get in for that 3am shift, I just take the forecasts that the overnight guy did over the previous few hours and run with them until I have had my coffee and a chance to see the newer stuff around 5-6am. However, I saw a tweet from WxWatcher about the rapidly evolving winter storm forecast he was dealing with on his midnight shift, and starting looking deeper into the models. So, thank you WxW!

    2. Thank you SAK. I have been looking and reserving judegement until we get closer.

      Would love to know TK”S and your take on what will actually take place. Sure, there are hints in your forecast, but I mean
      what is truly in your guts. We will NOT hold you to it.

    1. My only barely scientific gut feeling is not much on the Friday threat.

      Lottery ticket for a snow threat around the 13th. 😉
      No this is not a “forecast”.

  15. If we put the ensembles of the EPS and GEFS together for Friday’s system its not a blockbuster hit but it gives many a moderate snowfall. Still a wide range of possibilities.

  16. The way it has been I think any snow lover will take any sort of accumulating snow. Beggars can’t be choosers.

        1. oh the good old GFS fantasy storm then again that might be the time period in which I leave so book it lol.

  19. Cannot deny the trends though this morning….both the CMC and Euro have started trending further SE and weaker, and the GFS/ICON/UKMET have pretty much lost the storm.

    That’s not to say it cant come back when the energy responsible for this potential system hits the west coast. Some decent spread in the ensembles and we are still 3.5-4 days out.

    2. I know and I had a feeling it would I just hope it doesn’t. I rather see the Cape and islands get Rain

  20. Thanks, TK!

    Took a walk around the yard yesterday and noticed the daffodils have poked their heads up through the ground already!!!

    1. The ground is not as cold as it is supposed to be. Need sustained cold to get the ground to become cold and solid to keep the plants from doing that.

  26. Amazing how a place like Huntsville, AL has more snow than any of the official reporting stations in SNE so far this winter.

  27. Looking at the current radar, I’ll give the GFS credit….it did an excellent job modeling the northern extent of the virga 🙂

  29. According to the GFS it should be snowing in southern VT right now.

    JP Dave I know you won’t mind me using one of your favorite terms when I say the performance of that model just hours in advance was PATHETIC! 😛

    1. Of course not. Pretty funny. I am a wee bit farther South than
      Southern VT and I haven’t seen a snow flake here.

      I am getting pretty fed up with these models. 🙂

  30. From a colleague in the DC area…

    “Can we put this to rest now? Yesterday here in DC, I saw
    some people saying, “it’s been so mild, the ground is too
    warm so that will preclude any sig accumulating snow.” No
    problem at all. I got 6″ in Silver Spring, and the snow
    was largely light-moderate most of the time.

    Yes, the initial snow melts esp. when the pcpn changes
    from rain to snow and the temp is still a bit above freezing,
    but the melting snow on the ground quickly removes a lot of
    heat out of the topsoil and pavement, and cools it to freezing
    rather fast.

    Of course, it’s harder outside the winter months. esp. during
    the day with the sun angle higher, but even here, if comes
    down hard enough, long enough, it won’t matter.

    On Sep 12, 1993, Denver CO had a high of 92 F. The next day
    they had 5″ of snow for their greatest snowfall so early in the
    season. Sioux City IA was 88 F on April 8, 1988 and the
    next morning, 2″ of snow was on the ground. So, it can actually
    be hot the previous day, and it still doesn’t matter!”

    1. I can add to this, recalling the Denver area being near 100F and having a moderate snowstorm just a few days later – this just happened within the last couple years.

    2. You don’t have to tell me this. I have seen this so many times
      over all of my years. Snow intensity will overcome almost
      anything.

      I have to laugh when some mets say there won’t be any accumulation of the roads because they are too warm.
      Horse Shit! If it comes down hard enough, it will accumulate.
      Sure, some accumulation is lost while the pavement cools,
      but it WILL accumulate.

    1. The Euro’s storm is Friday. Saturday’s forecast is dry/cold.

      As for the actual forecast (as noted above), I think we have a threat of “something” Friday, and Saturday will be dry/cold.

    1. Inevitable. Kind of a disservice to the science of the weather. But It goes on in every field from
      politics to sports to business. I will stop right here.

  33. Based on how nice the sunset is from Woburn but how low in the sky it is to the NW-W, I can only imagine how awesome it must look from southwestern NH and north central / northwestern MA right now.

  36. I ended up with about 1 inch of snow at my location. Much of far southern New Jersey and Delaware saw 8-12″+. Really looking forward to seeing the totals plotted on a map; the gradient will be insane.

    Down this way at least, the sharp snowfall cutoff ended up about 25 miles or so south of forecast. Certainly not a bad forecast, but it does go to show the power of dry air in these situations. In particular, when dry air is *invading* at the same time a storm system is also invading, the dry air will usually win on the northern edge. If it’s already dry, but not getting any drier, then that increases the odds of the dry air gradually being overcome. SNE dealt with the invading dry air as well today, but up there it wasn’t even close, whereas we were on the razor’s edge here.

    On the contrary, as one of TK’s posts above talks about, the “warm ground” theory is complete nonsense. When you have sufficient snowfall rates, the warm ground will always be overwhelmed. That is especially true this time of year when the sun angle is low, and also in cases when the air temperatures are at or below freezing. Now, if it’s a lighter snow intensity or the air is warmer, it becomes a different story, especially by late Feb and beyond. But none of that was present today in areas from DC to Delmarva.

    1. Yeah, the SREF is beyond awful. I don’t use it at all. I would guess it’ll be axed entirely from the NCEP suite in the next few years. It’s already “left for dead” so to speak, no longer in development (nor is the NAM) and is just sort of “there”. The development of the HREF, which is an excellent ensemble model, has totally supplanted the need for it.

  38. 18z GFS and ICON still pretty weak and largely out to sea for the Friday threat. What snow does fall is once again over the Mid Atlantic, Cape and Islands.

  39. I believe Regan Airport is where the weather records are kept for Washington D.C. They recorded 6.7 inches of snow today. Normal snowfall for the season in Washington D.C. is 13.8 inches.

  40. 16th wettest year on record for Boston was 2021.
    Not overly impressive considering the summer.

  42. My son and I just did our prayers and he asked that we pray for snow. So I asked for some snow to go sledding and my son said I want a TON of snow!

    So you are all welcome!! Big storm Friday!!

    1. Friday is my mom’s Angel day. She would want your sons prayer answered. So I’m going with the LEGNA model.

        1. MLK Weekend is always a good bet for a snow event, at least around here. 😉

          I remember Todd Gross would focus on February 6 – 12 timeframe every year.

  44. Well lo and behold….Friday is back on the 00z GFS!

    Hour 84:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022010400&fh=84

    Hour 90:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022010400&fh=90

    Good for a quick 3-6″ moderate snowfall across much of the region….

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2022010400&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    2. That’s the control run, which is just 1 of 51 members of the Ensemble. There are also some members with just 4-8″ total over that 45 day period.

      The mean is around 21″, which is fairly close to normal.

  49. 00z Euro has trended a bit weaker and further SE now. Still a region wide accumulating snow but on the lighter side….2-4″.

    00Z Canadian would deliver 3-6″

    Blending it all together, 00Z model consensus would yield a moderate snowfall across much of SNE Friday.

  50. 06z NAM (12 km) has 0.0 snow for Boston through 15z Friday with the low center almost by Boston’s latitude.

    So that’s basically nothing from the NAM to almost a foot on the GFS.

    We know, for starters, at this range, the GFS has usually “found” the storm it kind of lost previously, but is likely over-strengthening it and probably (seems to be a more recent bias) taking it too far N & W. We know the NAM’s issues that far out. Lately at this range, Canadian & Euro have been, while not great, a little bit better.

    Early leaning: Light to moderate snowfall for Boston area based on that very quick and simple analysis. More delving to come.

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