Tuesday January 4 2021 Forecast (7:51AM)

125 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 4-8)

Our pattern while similar in terms of activity starts to trend colder as we pierce January. One would expect this as we head toward the heart of winter as well as little further away from a pattern that kept us so mild. But we’re not done with mild air quite yet. You may not feel that way if you step outside this morning where many places sit below 20. First, we will have a bright and cold day today, the first day with substantial sun since December 23. High pressure will provide this for us, and it won’t be as cold as yesterday was, though still chilly – with temperatures climbing into the 30s. High pressure shifts offshore and low pressure passes north of the region Wednesday – a mild day that turns wet. A cold front will charge through the area Wednesday night returning a seasonable chill to us by Thursday. This sets up a wintry precipitation threat for Friday as low pressure takes aim at the Northeast. Model guidance is still showing a fairly large spread of outcomes, not only in the low pressure’s track, development, and intensity, but in snowfall amounts for the region. For example, through midday Friday, model snowfall output for Boston range from nothing at all to just under 1 foot of snow. Ah, so the accumulation is going to be 0 to 12 inches? Sure. That’s one way to look at it, but not the right way. The right way to look at it is that it’s still too soon to talk numbers. I’ll go no further than just saying that the higher probability, based on how I think the pattern will help this play out, is a light to moderate snowfall for the majority of the region. But there are still questions to be answered and fine tuning to do. Behind this system comes a cold and dry day to start the weekend on Saturday.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief sleet possible northern MA southern NH early morning. Chance of rain showers midday-afternoon, favoring eastern areas. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the evening. Lows 33-40. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snow/mix likely. Highs 34-41. Wind variable 10-20 mostly E to N 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 9-13)

Systems may bring precipitation later January 9 into January 10, with another threat later in the period. Overall temperature trend is colder.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 14-18)

Trend continues to be for near to below normal temperatures near on the drier side of normal for precipitation but active enough that a couple snow/mix threats can occur.

125 thoughts on “Tuesday January 4 2021 Forecast (7:51AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    So nice to see the sun !!

    I´m not going to get excited about Friday until the 00z runs Thursday night and I see precip headed in a favorable direction not too far from southern New England.

  4. Good morning TK.
    NOT excited about Friday. Just too much model divergence.
    How about a bit of consistency model to model, would that
    be to much to ask? I guess it is.
    IF there is a way for it to get screwed up, it will.

    NAM looks like a bit of snow then mostly rain. We shall see
    what it predicts with the 12Z run.

    GFS 6-10
    Euro 2-3
    UKMET 0
    CMC 3-6
    NAM Perhaps an inch or 2 prior to rain.

    This does not look that great to me.

    1. Interesting that the Mid-Atlantic had no rain-snow line, but we up here we’ll likely have one.

      Only in New England…oh well.

  6. I think we are at that point in the year where we are adding more daylight at the beginning and end of each day … maybe a minute or two. Sun will set at 5 PM on February 1st.

  7. Thanks, TK.

    Regarding the snow to our south (eg, mid-Atlantic) and the rain/snow line setting up in SNE, doesn’t that have to do in part with the positioning of the cold air high?

  8. Thanks TK! You mentioned on the previous blog you were leaning light to moderate event for Friday. Curious on your definition/criteria for “light” and “moderate” and equivalent snowfall amounts. Here is mine. Light = 2-6” Moderate = 6-10”

    1. Not TK, but here is my JPD scale FWIW:

      Light: 1-3,2-4
      Mod: 3-6,4-8
      Heavy: 8+
      Heavy+: 12+
      Heavy++: 18+
      Heavy:+++: 24+

      You know which one(s I like !

        2. A little early for that. How can he even say that with so much uncertainty on the table??????

          Oh well.

          1. He is being very careful to say preliminary or possible or might I am still going with the LEGNA model for this and it still looks as if this might be some fun snow

  14. As I said yesterday – the vorticity maximum responsible for generating our Friday storm is still over the Gulf of Alaska. Until it moves onshore and into the upper-air network late tonight or early tomorrow, all model solutions are suspect.

  15. The anticipation is rising.

    Don´t do it to yourself folks.

    Stay calm until Thursday 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Otherwise, disappointment factor is very high.

    1. I am past that. I am curiously looking at all of the guidance now more in a SICK way to see HOW they might SCREW UP!

      I am not even sure I would trust the 0Z runs Thursday evening.

      1. It will only be warmer if the track really hugs the coast or
        tracks inland. Otherwise cold enough for snow.

      2. That´s on the table, with every other imaginable scenario as well.

        Depends on the strength of the SE ridge, in some sense, we need it to strengthen a bit or we´ll have another OTS like yesterday.

        Also, depends on any phasing.

        All details to be ironed out.

  17. While everyone is focused on Friday, there *could* be some icing issues tomorrow morning in southern New Hampshire and possibly the Merrimack Valley. Some of the models are bringing the rain in a little faster tomorrow, developing by 7-8am. Meanwhile, temperatures don’t get above 32 until 9-10am. That’s a problem.

    2. Keeping a close eye on that.

      But not many will pay attention and then wonder “why the surprise?” 😉

      1. Of course, the timing of it – the morning commute, couldn’t be worse. Since we forecast for a bunch of cities and towns in southern NH and northern MA, that’ll result in a busy shift for me tonight.

  20. News stations should think twice about so much live coverage of people stuck on I-95 unless they want to keep catching people making the snow yellow.

    2. The storm doesn’t really exist yet. And I think I saw it stronger on two model forecasts, which can’t be trusted.

  25. GREETINGS! From Texas. I haven’t posted in a whike since I Moved to Texas but man do I still read the blog and get that nostalgic feeling of tracking winter storms even tho I don’t live in Mass anymore. Good old times. I hope you guys get that storm on Friday or Old Salty will not be happy

    1. I feel the same way when I am down in St. Thomas. Though sometimes I am jealous. I am hear right now but seems that mother nature just doesn’t want it to snow while I am here

  27. This morning’s discussion from the NWS:

    At 96 hours out our best forecast tools lay within ensemble model
    guidance. There is strong agreement among the global model ensembles
    that the surface low will pass very close to the 70/40 bench mark.
    In this scenario most of southern New England would see accumulating
    snowfall. Ensemble mean 24 hour snowfall amounts from each of the
    GFS/CMC/EC models fall in the 3-6″ range in the Thursday night –
    Friday night time period. The consensus for the “bulls eye” of
    highest accumulations is over the I-95 corridor. The GFS ensemble
    resolves a track a bit further north and west placing the heaviest
    snowfall over western MA and southern NH. The relatively strong
    agreement among global ensemble guidance right now suggests an
    increasing likelihood for at least an advisory level snowfall event
    for portions of southern New England and perhaps even a warning
    level event. Again, considerable uncertainty remains so we`ll
    continue to monitor the latest trends as the event draws nearer.

  29. Just quickly compared models to ensembles
    GFS to the east of many ensembles of the GEFS
    EURO and CMC more inline with their ensembles
    EURO surface map though looks a bit off in terms of surface low placement based off the 500V map which I think would pull more precipitation a bit closer to the coast than being shown on the surface map but thats is just me not 100% sure.

  30. Can tell it’s been a slow winter for snow lovers with how cautious everyone is around Friday haha. Obviously too early to guarantee anything, but my thoughts haven’t changed – it looks like a great setup for SNE to me. Not for a blockbuster, but for a quick-hitting moderate event (moderate to me being ~ballpark~ 4 to 8 inches).

    Pattern looks quite interesting the next 2-3 weeks. There was a bit of a “freak-out” among the usual (non-WHW) suspects the past few days about guidance trending to a lengthy warm interlude mid-month. Not happening. The game has totally changed in the Pacific. It will change back again eventually, but these next 3 weeks or so are our window for true winter. However, I agree with TK that beyond Friday, cold and dry is definitely favored over cold and stormy, at least at first…

    1. Yes, yes, and yes. And an extra yes in case I forgot one. 😉

      As for #’s, I’ll boldly go where everyone has already gone by tomorrow morning and venture a guess. 😉

        1. If I go low, odds favor it being because it’s colder with less precip due to a faster, slightly flatter system. But that’s almost saying too much even now.

    1. Sign me up for either the NAM or RDPS….I’ll take my 6″ and run!

      This would be a nice start to January which looks like it may actually live up to its namesake and turn out to be a seasonably “wintery” month.

      1. Agree….0.5″+ precip in the I-95 corridor should yield 6″+. Not sure what algorithm that model uses for “tru snow” but it always seems low.

  36. Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for a good portion of the WHW forecast area (mostly west of I-95) for the reason noted by SAK earlier today. We mustn’t look beyond nearer threats just because the forecast a couple days after that includes the word “snow”. Tomorrow morning’s situation may be more dangerous for many people than a light to moderate snowfall a couple days later.

    1. Indeed, it’s quite cold at the surface, anything that falls may freeze on contact, at least for a bit. I find driving in sleet or freezing rain conditions worse than snow. Less grip and less certainty (not that snow provides certainty, but with snow it feels more predictable in terms of how the car will react).

      1. I have to focus on the icing tomorrow AM around here on my shift tonight, among other things. I will get to Friday’s storm at some point, as I do have to come up with numbers for my forecasts, since it’ll be on Day 3 in the forecasts I send out in the early AM.

        As I’ve mentioned before, I do forecasts for radio stations in 3 different cities in North Dakota. They are all under a Blizzard Warning until 9am. Only 1-3″ of snow, but winds of 20-30 mph dropping visibility to near zero at times in blowing snow. Oh, and it’ll drop to -20 to -30 again for Wednesday and Thursday nights after the storm. Winter is alive and well in other parts of the nation.

  37. Former Red Sox reliever Jim Corsi passed away. He was 60. Cause was liver and colon cancer. A local guy (born and raised in Newton; died in Bellingham, at home), who spoke with a regional accent and was so down to earth. One thing I remember about him is that he threw a palm ball. An unusual pitch these days, though it was fairly popular in the 40s through 60s. Here’s Corsi at Jet Blue Park in Florida (2013) showing how to throw a palm ball. https://youtu.be/_6WV7ois3Rw

    1. I met Jim about 10 years ago at a Doug Flutie charity golf tournament. He was an incredibly nice and funny man. Gave my friend and I his golf tees. I was heartbroken when I saw the interview he did recently with Steve Burton. My prayers are with his family and friends.

  38. Ugh, some of the locals are totally ignoring the icing threat tomorrow morning. I really don’t like news directors. 😛

    Friday’s the big story! Go to Friday! Snow snow snow! That’s what goes through their heads…

    1. Thanks, Mark. I received the same advisory. I txtd my kids and a few others. They were all aware but never mind mom worrying about them

      I had not seen the NWS map. Thank you. My sons in law are debating getting their snowblowers from Ashland where one SIL has his building. I will pass this along also

    2. I saw the lead in and managed to get to the girls to watch. I’m still crying so if there are typos. That is why. What a beautiful woman and how amazing that your dad is still right beside her and you

      1. A txt from my youngest….

        “ Soooo sooo cool!!!! She’s such a sweet women! I swear she looks younger now than when she was at dads memorial almost 6 years ago!”

    3. My wife and I watched and we both had tears in our eyes. Such a heartwarming story. Your Mom is a sweet lady and your Dad is definitely by her side.

  42. FWIW, the 00z NAM 12km is a coating to 2 inches for pretty much everybody, maybe a bit more outer Cape Cod.

    1. disgusting, seems old man winter just doesn’t want it to snow while I am here of course based on the EURO wants to freeze us all middle of next week lol.

  43. I wouldn’t worry about the NAM or anything else right now. Remember what SAK mentioned about better sampling tomorrow.

      1. Yeah, it’s just coming onshore, which means it still isn’t properly sampled, and won’t be until the 12z soundings. Until then, still not trusting any model solutions that much.

  48. Model consensus tonight looks like a 2-4 or 3-6″ snowfall across the region with highest amounts SE MA. This thing is just flying along with nothing to slow it down. Not enough time for it to blow up until it is east of us and heading towards Nova Scotia.

    While the NAM could turn out correct, I would caution worrying too much about it yet. The NAM at this lead time for the last storm had the DC area getting nothing and the precip shield way to the south. We all know how that turned out…

    1. Pretty awesome for your family to receive that letter all these years later! I can’t believe your Mom is turning 90!

  51. No matter what happens the rest of my day, watching that videoclip has made it.
    Wow.
    Thank you, Brian.

  55. TK, what an incredible story, it almost makes you wonder. So happy for your family especially your mom.
    Mark thank you for posting the link as I did not see it live last night.

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