Wednesday January 5 2021 Forecast (7:53AM)

157 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 5-9)

High pressure is now east of our region and a warm front is passing through this morning. A combination of increasing mid level moisture and low level moisture will result in patchy drizzle and scattered to numerous rain showers from this morning through early afternoon. While the precipitation will be the most spotty over the interior (west of I-95), some of it can fall as freezing drizzle/rain this morning while temperatures are still below freezing, creating slippery travel on untreated surfaces. Temperatures will rise sufficiently to put an end to any problems by noon. East of I-95, there’s no icing threat, but that is where rain showers will be most numerous with even a heavier shower possible in some locations. The mild air of today will be short-lived, as a cold front will cross the region this evening and return a colder air mass to us. Thursday will see fair weather thanks to a small area of high pressure, but a low pressure area emerging off the Mid Atlantic Coast will move quickly northeastward, passing southeast of New England, bringing a widespread snowfall to the region Thursday night and Friday. The progressive pattern and slow strengthening of this low will prevent it from being a major snowstorm for our area, but it will be the first widespread appreciable snowfall of the season. Mixing with rain over outer Cape Cod through Martha’s Vineyard may hold down snowfall amounts there, and even more so on Nantucket, as the ocean water temperatures are still rather warm to prevent such influence. Also, lighter precipitation amounts will keep snowfall accumulations on the lower side as you head north and west of Boston. The current call on the “jackpot area” for snowfall is Boston’s southern suburbs and interior areas of southeastern MA that combine the heaviest precipitation with snow-supporting temperatures – but even there, not a major snowstorm. The fast movement of this system essentially makes it about a 10 hour event, from pre-dawn to early afternoon Friday, and we may even see breaks of sun before Friday is over. Expect fair and seasonably cold weather Saturday to very early Sunday before the next low pressure system impacts the region later Sunday. This one is more likely to be tracking north of our region, allowing a warm up and bringing the chance of rain showers.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and rain showers early through mid morning with some icing possible on untreated surfaces mostly west of I-95. Scattered to numerous rain showers, most numerous southeastern MA especially Cape Cod, mid through late morning. Highs 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH early becoming SW 5-15 MPH inland and 10-20 MPH coast with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Snow arriving pre-dawn southwest to northeast. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming NE.

FRIDAY: Cloudy through midday with snow likely (may mix with rain Cape Cod and Islands), accumulating 2-6 inches, heaviest interior southeastern MA. Breaking clouds and partial sun possible later in the day. Highs 28-35. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts especially coastal areas, shifting to NW later in the day.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early sun then mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 10-14)

Shot of arctic air early next week. Moderating temperatures but the chance of some unsettled weather later next week. More details to come.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 15-19)

Overall pattern looks colder than average with a couple of snowfall threats possible, but generally drier than normal.

157 thoughts on “Wednesday January 5 2021 Forecast (7:53AM)”

  4. Thanks TK.

    Ironically many accidents early near the South Coast where temperatures are well into the 40s. However, road temperatures are in the upper 20s.

    1. Unless those accidents all happened around 4-5am, then this statement is false. Road temperatures were above freezing by 5-6am for most of the South Coast.

      1. SAK, I was watching Ch. 5 traffic update and the reporter showed a map of that area and ALL locations in that area definitely showed road temperatures in the 27-29F range. This was sometime just after 6:30 am.

        Maybe then his map wasn’t updated?

  5. Thanks, TK…

    A bit of weather surprise this morning. It was slick on the roads from Taunton to Middleborough up Rt. 44. Salters were out, but not before many accidents. Was listening to Rob Carolan on WSAR and he theorized that the dewpoint temperatures rose before the air temp did causing slippery conditions.

    The car thermometer was 31º when I left Taunton. It was 36º 15 minutes later.

  7. FWIW, the 12Z HRRR has the 500 mb flow a little flat like
    the GFS did, We’ll see what it looks like at it gets closer.

  8. Thank you, TK.

    Sue, thank you for sharing your story about Jim Corsi. Corsi and (Lou) Merloni played together on the Red Sox in the late 1990s. Both are local guys, who made it to the big leagues and played for the team they grew up rooting for. Here’s Merloni talking about his friend, Jim Corsi, who passed away yesterday. https://twitter.com/LouMerloni/status/1478516000236703747

    1. Quite a tribute. Thanks for sharing.
      Never met Corsi, but I did meet Merloni as I played poker
      with him one day at a tournament. He was very friendly.
      He was still playing with Cleveland at the time.

  9. The temperature at my house in Lunenburg is 26. The paved surfaces are very treacherous, exactly as widely predicted last evening. I live at the intersection of a state-maintained road and a town-maintained road. Neither has been treated at all, and the primary school is just across the street. This is a case where a little pre-treating would have prevented a lot of trouble.

  11. Energy not really over land yet so most recent runs no more trustworthy than the previous ones.

      1. I know this could change but it has the feel of a 2-4 3-6 inch event. No thing is clear no blockbuster storm.

  13. Thanks TK
    ICE ICE BABY in central and western parts of CT. Numerous accidents on highways there were school districts that started with a delay opening changed to a closing.

  15. What’s going on in central MA and southern NH could have been avoided. The people that knew nailed the forecast. The people that should have been paying attention largely were not.

  18. OPerationals are still shifting, this afternoon will be the first set that we should get a good look at the 500V energy as it moves over the PNW. Tonights 00z will see all of it over land.
    6z EURO shifted NW
    6z EPS shifted NW

  20. A disastrous travel morning down my way as well this morning, even this far south. Thankfully I didn’t have to hit the roads in the early hours. Winter Weather Advisories were up by yesterday afternoon, definitely a lack of awareness/preparation by the DOTs/DPWs on this one…

  22. Why no pretreatment was done in CT.
    From CTDOT
    Freezing rain is not like snow and ice ❄ this event was a Perfect Storm: too cold yesterday to lay down liquid pre-treatment & tooDash symbol windy ahead of the weather to pre-treat with hard salt. We’re out there across #CT. When you see us, give us room to work. Warning sign

    Ryan Hanrahan reply to that tweet
    Not to keep this going but between 2 a.m. and 5 a.m. the winds were dead calm in Hartford. Before that they were generally than 10 mph (those measurements are also at 10 meters… so winds would be less at the ground).

    2. The CT DOT is flat out lying and hoping that the general public doesn’t understand how things work, in an attempt to cover themselves. The solutions they use to pretreat don’t freeze until it is below zero, which is wasn’t last night. Also, as Ryan mentioned, there was little wind in CT last night, except for right along the coast.

    3. Those pre treatments can be used in much colder conditions than last night, and they know it. Lies.

  24. Thanks TK !

    South shore rte 3 with many accidents this morning.

    Eastern sky was clear, western sky had low clouds.

    My guess is higher dps adverted in over the colder surfaces, resulting in condensation that wet the roads and with the prior cold temps, it formed black ice. Nasty ! Another car crash right near our middle school.

    1. That confirms what I stated above with regard to road temperatures well below freezing in most locations.

      1. No, it doesn’t – I just posted the data above that shows that road temps were above freezing well before the precipitation started.

        1. Well, all I can say (again) is that the WCVB Ch. 5 traffic reporter showed the map all over SNE and most showed upper 20s for road temperatures. If it was totally incorrect, then it should have been updated for the viewing public.

          When I get up in the morning and turn on the tv, I have to go with whatever the traffic reporter, tv met, etc. says as I don’t have the meteorological knowledge and other resources you, TK, WxW, and JMA have.

          I represent the general viewing public until this blog WHW says otherwise.

          But then, why so many accidents well south of Boston this morning where the air temperatures well above freezing?

          1. Perhaps because the accidents I was referring to were Marshfield, Plymouth area and the road temps above were for areas a bit further south and perhaps those road temps were slightly milder than “up here”.

  26. We have a person or two who reads WHW that works to treat our roads. Sutton did not treat as far as I can tell and we always do. Turned out we didn’t need to treat so that may be a moot point. I’d love to hear from someone who knows the job. The severe road conditions went from NJ to NH and out as far as NY.

    1. All of the town DPWs that my company forecasts for (all across southern NH and northern/eastern MA) were alerted yesterday afternoon of a potential icing issue this morning, and then the forecasts I sent at 2am also showed temperatures below freezing until 10-11am with rain developing around 7-9am. So, there’s no excuse for those cities/towns to not have been prepared.

      1. I always prefer to hear from those who do the job. Just as I do when meteorologists are too frequently criticized. Just as I always go to the source if I question something.

    2. The situation near our house in Lunenburg was a disaster, with no pre-treatment. The first sander went by hours after the damage was done. Before that, cars were lined up along the sides of Rt 2A. The only things moving were emergency vehicles. I saw a police vehicle slide sideways off the road with no wheels spinning.

      For the Friday storm, I predict 3″ of snow and 5″ of pre-treatment on the roads!

    3. Hi Vicki,
      I am in charge of snow and ice removal for a DPW on the south shore- think Brockton area. We have a weather service that provides us daily forecasts and storm alerts. We did receive an alert from them yesterday regarding possible freezing rain this morning. What we were not alerted to, and I don’t know if they could have, was the condensation forming on the roads that were sub-freezing. I think Tom mentioned that the dew points rose faster than the air temp. Anyway, we didnt have any issues even though our road temps were at 28-30 (we hav 4 road temp sensors in our town that I can see remotely) until 8:30am. So we did not need to treat. However, two towns to our east had to send trucks out to treat spot locations for black ice. IMO if the DPWs were alerted for freezing rain and thats what caused the accidents then yes, they should know better. Otherwise its hard to treat be prepared for something if you cannot anticipate it occurring- like condensation. Sorry if this was too wordy but there is SO much that goes into snow and ice treatment.

      1. Hi South OB.

        Thank you very much for the time you took to answer. I have been careful not to criticize what I don’t know and appreciate hearing from someone who does know. When I see the huge span of the problem it tells me there is something more to learn.

        I had noted Tom’s comment but didn’t fully understand. That makes sense. Also thank you even more than very much for all you do to keep our roads safe. I know many of you were out on Christmas. I also believe many DPW folks were delivering home test kits.

        1. You’re very welcome. I enjoy providing my insight because the more that people understand what we do the better it is for everyone.
          Thank you for your kind words 🙂

          1. 🙂 Truer words were never spoken. Enjoy your day and please be safe. I posted a thank you a while ago on my town FB to the folks who were out on Christmas. It made me happy to see that it received a huge number of likes which tells me many appreciate the job you do.

  29. This morning’s NWS discussion re: Friday

    At this point an advisory level event is the most likely
    scenario. The jury is still out on the track of this system, but
    latest ensemble guidance has the storm tracking just south and
    east of the 70/40 benchmark. This would mean a higher snowfall
    potential for the southeastern portions of southern New England
    and a lower potential for the northwestern portions. The
    consensus among the global model ensembles is for a swath of 4-6
    inches of snow across the east/southeastern areas including
    Boston and Providence. West of I- 495 would be more likely to
    see amounts in the 2-4 inch range. While 4-6 inches doesn`t fall
    into the category of a major winter storm it certainly should
    not be ignored. Latest trends suggest the heaviest snowfall
    would be in the early to mid morning hours Friday, thus the
    modest snow accumulations could impact the morning commute.
    Latest trends support the snowfall ending in the early to mid
    afternoon. Finer details will be ironed out in the next 12-24
    hours as the exact track of the system becomes more clear.

  30. Walked the shore as usual early this AM and the shore walkway was not treated. I cut my walk down to 3 miles and had to go slowly and gingerly. Saw some other who were a little to carefree and slipping and sliding. Not a fun walk.

    2. I am wondering if this could be one of those situations in which a strengthening low pressure has banding that the models are not picking up on right now. So general 4-8 like the NWS map is showing but a narrow band of 8-12 setting up somewhere.

  33. Looking like as Tk said above south of Boston (south shore looking like the jackpot of potentially 6 inches which in my opinion is a good storm . Friday morning commute could be a disaster for certain areas .

  34. More from CT DOT not pretreating.
    Lots of questions on pre-treating the roads coming in. Here’s a quick overview:
    Too cold: liquid pre-treatment freezes creating dangerous conditions
    Too dry: hard salt blows away by many vehicles
    traveling on highways
    Too rainy: treatment washes away

    1. We pretreat all areas before the storms . We fill the skid steer salt bin attached to the machine with about 50 bags of salt manually. It’s a great spreader with good spread & the machine can go around the campus quickly .

      1. I’m working 3-11 this week before I start my regular 11-7 on Tuesday . I’ll probably work this storm which means I go in 3pm shift tomorrow & will leave Friday night at 11pm .

    2. Lies, lies, and more lies.

      Too Cold: Pre-treatment chemicals work until the temperature is below zero. No applicable.

      Too Dry: This is why you use chemicals, and not salt. Poor excuse.

      Too Rainy – Temperatures were well below freezing long before the rain moved in.

      Translation: We blew it, but we’ll just throw a bunch of excuses out there and hope that nobody realizes that we’re more full of crap than a newborn’s diaper.

      2. We have the best snow crew at my place hands down . We ate well known & all of the team takes a tremendous amount of pride in what we do , absolutely 0 cutting corners ( not here ever !!!!

    1. “could” happen, but do not be surprised if the numbers get
      changed between now and tomorrow evening. 🙂

  38. Ryan Hanrahan sounding off on the CT DOT. I agree with his points.
    One thing I’m thinking after this morning’s disaster… we need the state DOT to stop operating in a black box. If it’s true pre-treatment wouldn’t work (I’m not sure that’s the case) then why weren’t they telling us that ahead of time? Would have been useful to communicate

    My forecast yesterday was for freezing drizzle and freezing rain to create problems on untreated surfaces during the morning commute. I never imagined that nothing in the state would be pre-treated!

    We see those lines on the highways before every storm. I see towns dump truck fulls of salt on cold days ahead of storms even on my small side road. All of that happens on cold days and it makes a difference

    At the same time… freezing rain is always dangerous. And it wasn’t just Connecticut… from New Hampshire to New Jersey things were a mess. Hopefully we can all work more collaboratively in the future to get the best message out to our viewers.

    There are lots of people who work very hard to get things like this right – from the NWS to TV meteorologists to the hundreds of plow truck drivers I saw salting the roads on Christmas morning… away from their families. Hopefully we learn from this and do better next time

    2. I saw this comment. It seems to be mature, fair and most importantly respectful, based on the knowledge Ryan has.

      Trying to look from all sides, It made me wonder why the very many folks on the road also didn’t heed warnings of ice. I know many do for snow. As I noted here last night, I mentioned ice to my kids and several others. One in RI didn’t have a problem. Others planned their commute accordingly.

    3. CT DOT absolutely blew it. You see the white pre-treatment lines laid down on the pavement before every storm here, even when a dusting is forecast, and in MUCH colder weather than this. Someone was asleep at the wheel.

  39. Mark I liked each and every one of the points Ryan made. I hope people take the time to read them. Did you have much icing in your part of CT?

    1. Yes I think it was icy pretty much everywhere in the State this morning. I was on a call with the City of Stamford earlier and they mentioned it was a mess down there earlier.

      No school delays here though and fortunately I didnt have to go out this morning as I have been working from home this week.

  41. Central and Western parts of CT were bad. Jack Knifed Tractor trailer NB I-95 in Norwalk RT8 in Waterbury shut down due to Jack Knifed Tractor Trailer. There were many more accidents on highways than those I mentioned.

  42. Also of note, when that convective line of showers moved through around 11AM here, we had a brief very heavy downpour and a slew of ice pellets came down with it. Temp was 37 degrees at the time. Not sure if it was sleet or hail?

  45. I said yesterday that everyone was paying attention to the Friday storm and not talking about the potential for icing this morning. Most of the forecasts were on top of this, so the blame all lies with the DOTs and DPWs who apparently didn’t pay attention to any forecasts at all.

  48. I’ll throw my 2 cents in here re: road treatment and this morning. I’m in Central MA, immediately NW of Worcester. Weather provider gave us regular daily forecast yesterday morning around 3AM, and indicated little to no precipitation before 6AM this today. 11:30 AM yesterday get first “storm warning” from provider indicating potential for increasing clouds, little to no freezing drizzle between Midnight and 6AM, then hit or miss freezing drizzle to drizzle between 6AM and Noon.

    None of that info available to me as of noon time yesterday raises any alarms bells for preparing for a wide spread freezing rain event. Something to note, maybe have to send a truck or two out to hit “normal” troublespots.

    Checking on things late in the afternoon, I see TK’s and SAK’s warnings about a icy situation developing for this morning. Then NWS issues Winter Weather Advisory. Spider sense gets tingly. New storm warning comes out. Both NWS and weather provider indicate freezing drizzle/mist starting between 4 and 5AM. Consult with crew leaders, we make the call at 7PM last night to bring salting crews in early at 5 AM to either start salting and be ready to salt, depending on realtime weather.

    5AM, crews roll into the garage. Nothing happening. No mist, no freezing drizzle. Figure, oh well, swing and a miss. That’s two hours of sleep the crews lost and 2 hours of OT paid out, but better safe than sorry. Crew sticks around, loads up trucks and waits.

    8AM mists descends and look at pavement temps and see they are still below freezing. Crews roll out and start treating town. Get about 3/4’s of the way done before precipitation really picks up. A few icy side streets that are at the end of salt routes, but in general whole town is salted during ice event and very little impact to traffic.

    Others, not so much.

    With that said, given the time frame of onset of drizzle, I’m sure there’s an argument to be had about just waiting to see if anything happens by 7AM (when most crews start). And even though a gamble, the “official” forecast language from a variety of services indicated concerns, but perhaps was a bit under-forecasted and didn’t have the alarm bells really ringing.

    At the end of the day, a public official has to weigh when and how to spend public resources. Spend too much for nothing, get criticized. Spend too little and get a mess, get criticized. Hit a storm just right, hear nothing (no news is good news!). But you need to be honest about, that’s all. Usually you give the public the info behind the decision, and the majority will understand. Might not agree, and you’ll always be second guessed. But the public will see through a lie in a minute, and just make things worse.

    Maybe a bit more than 2 cents…

    2. Thank you. Again a fact filled and respectful comment. As always, and as I said to South OB, thank you also for doing the very best you can in what are never cut and dried circumstances. I’m sure that is one place can all agree as we do with Mets!

  50. I like a widespread 3-6″ over most of southern New England on Friday, including northeast CT, all of RI, and all of eastern MA. Some potential for a 6-8+ band over eastern MA, but too progressive to get much more than that. Similar to TK’s thoughts overall.

    FWIW, if we had a -NAO, these numbers could be triple. Just nothing to slow the freight train down on this one…

  51. The way this winter has been beggars can’t be choosers. You got to take what you get a snow lover.

  52. 18Z NAM quite a ways OFF shore!

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2022010518/042/ref1km_ptype.conus.png

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2022010518/048/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    That makes 3 or 4 reasonable pieces of guidance that
    say the is just an advisory level event of 1-3 or perhaps 2-4 inches.

    Yet a Winter Storm Watch is up. Hmmm I suppose a watch
    could be warranted if they other guidance pans out.
    Tricky. Myself, I do not believe that this will be a warning
    level event. I would love to be wrong on this one.
    We shall see.

      1. We’ve seen this numerous times with this model, usually when it’s out about this range.

        Given the forecasts from Euro, GFS, and FV3, I’ll lean slightly toward the 12km NAM, but not completely.

        I want more info. I’ll have solid #’s without a doubt by tomorrow’s update, but let’s just say right now I agree with SAK’s update pretty much 100%.

        1. Isn’t the FV3 one of the 3 stooges? 🙂
          UKMET is in the same camp as the Euro and GFS as well
          as the regular NAM (32KM).

          I’ll bet anything Logan struggles to get to 3 inches.

  53. The pattern that appears like it wants to set up towards mid-month is quite interesting… AO/NAO appear to dip back negative, though not too strongly. But the MJO at long last seems to want to move into the stormier phases. With a mean trough axis near or just west of the East Coast, there could be some “big ticket” potential down the road. Obviously not a guarantee of anything….

    In the shorter term, a legitimately colder pattern appears to be taking shape, but as TK has telegraphed, cold and dry will be the rule at least at first. That is quite an Arctic shot early next week, haven’t seen one of those in a long while.

  57. About 45 minutes ago, we had torrential showers that belonged more to summer.

    And with the ground semi-frozen ???, it surely created some brief run-off in the parking lots and streets, etc

  59. Time to set up Mom’s next interview. She’s going to need an agent at this rate. 😉

    WBZ TV tonight @ 11pm newcast.

    1. Cool. I really believe hallmark would be interested in the story for its signed, sealed and delivered series

  63. Banding could certainly be a factor on Friday, as it often is in storms that are developing as opposed to mature. You could see strong areas of upward motion yield one or two (it’s often two) main bands oriented parallel to the storm’s direction of motion. Those are the bands which could yield some 6-8″ totals, perhaps further west than some may think. But they are compensated for by surrounding zones of sinking air where you may only get 1-3. Don’t assume “further east = more snow” for every town. That’ll be a general rule, and I like the general 3-6, but there will be locally higher and lower amounts.

  64. I have only seen 1 local TV person so far today (Pete) and there is clearly disagreement between at least him and the NWS. The area that NWS has 4-6 and a winter storm watch out for, Peter forecasts 1-2 southeast and 2-4 northwest. So as you can see there are still some differences of opinion and working out of the details ongoing. Just part of the forecasting process. 🙂 You can make a legit case for either of these forecasts being reasonable. My bet is that by this time tomorrow they will be in better agreement.

  65. Disclaimer: This is not picking on anybody, just a fun observation.

    Friends and former college pals JR & Pete have vastly different numbers for interior southeastern MA. JR is at 6-8 inches while Pete is at 1-2 inches. I think these 2 should make a pizza bet again. 😉 It would have to be on the quiet though since they don’t work at the same station like they did last time they did that. 😉

        2. Oh I know. It was an observation at that time – made me think of their pizza bet.

          My numbers might change too. 😉

    1. Love it! The part about school cancellations caught my eye. I don’t think under normal circumstances this would be enough to close schools, but with the COVID situation I wonder if it’s an easy call to just give a long weekend

      1. I was thinking the same thing! When the supers see the first flake, the cancellations will come flying in. Today was the worst day for staff and student absences of the whole school year! I have been covering other teachers’ classes in addition to teaching mine!

      2. Hahahaha. It wasn’t there when I posted or I didn’t see. After a two hour meeting this evening I’m not seeing much.

        How is your little guy, Ace? I’m sorry. My brain is closed for the night….see above….wasn’t he exposed?

        1. Yes, thanks for asking. He tested negative after day 5 last Friday and no symptoms. His speech therapist that exposed him isn’t doing well though and has recently been hospitalized.

  67. 18z and 00z models so far are trending more amplified and a tad further west. Lets see if it continues.

  68. Not that we have better sampling you can the models starting to latch on. Widespread 4-8 inches with maybe a max 10 in one or two locations based on banding.

  69. 00z model suite with an overall shift NW and more robust tonight. Nice banding signature there, despite the quick movement of this storm.

    Here’s the up close look at the 00z 3km NAM Kuchera Snowmap from Pivotal Weather showing a widespread band of 6-8″ inland:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc&rh=2022010600&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Watched both Ryan Hanrahan and Eric Fisher tonight at 11 and they both increased their snow totals to widespread 3-6″ and have a band of 6″+ somewhere from eastern CT into RI and east/southeast MA.

    Ryan mentioned the potential for 1-2″ per hour snow rates Friday morning for a time and a “fluff” factor to the snow that could result in some higher 6″+ amounts.

    Both Eric and Ryan also mentioned a trend colder for the Sunday system and have introduced a light wintery mix into the forecast as opposed to plain rain showers.

    Ryan mentioned things could “get interesting” towards the end of the 10 day forecast next weekend as well…

    We are in a new weather pattern folks….finally!!

        1. I’m loving it. I seem to be on the edge but still so early. Pete is upping his map for that area. Others too I’m sure

  70. TK, I watched WBZ news tonight (it’s the one Boston news station I get here) and your mom did a great job again! She is becoming a pro at this. Who’s next on her schedule!?

    2. I cried again. Such an amazing woman. She has been my hero from the second I met her at Mac’s memorial.

    3. Not sure yet which one will be next. 🙂
      She is pretty good – as you know she loves talking about my dad. 🙂

    1. It is? It’s 28 here in Nashua with fog, so the roads iced up again. Similar situation all along the Route 3 corridor from Tyngsboro to Concord.

      As for the Friday system, not changing my forecast yet. Just because most (but not all) of the models shifted northwest tonight doesn’t mean that is the way to go. If they all shift south and east again at 6z and/or 12z, everyone that bumped up amounts is going to look foolish when they have to drop them again. You should NEVER overreact to one model run.

  72. 00z HRRR comes in with more snow – people all over social media get excited.

    00z NAM comes in with more snow – people all over social media get eve more excited.

    00z GFS comes in with more snow – even more excitement on social media, and everyone starts bumping up their forecasts.

    00z ECMWF comes in with less snow – silence on social media

    Funny how that works.

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