Thursday January 6 2022 (6:09AM)

222 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 6-10)

If you are walking or driving on untreated surfaces early to mid morning, there are some icy spots mostly in the I-95 area westward as it was cold enough overnight to freeze the moisture on surface left behind by rainfall. High pressure brings dry and seasonably chilly air to our region today. Friday, we will see our first widespread significant snow of the season, a moderate and short-duration event as low pressure scoots northeastward off the Mid Atlantic Coast and passes southeast of New England in the process of heading toward the Canadian Maritimes. This low pressure area will be in the process of intensifying as it races by, so we’ll likely see some banding of heavier snowfall in a general area of light to moderate snow. Despite some inflated shorter range model numbers on recent runs, I’m not going to make any real changes to my preliminary outlook from yesterday other than some minor tweaks. Behind this system, expect a dry and cold day Saturday, then a quick moderation Sunday but along with the threat of some light precipitation (rain showers coast, mix or snow showers inland) moving through as low pressure passes north of the region and we see its warm front / cold front combination go by us. This will introduce a colder air mass for Monday as dry weather returns.

TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Snow arriving pre-dawn. Lows 23-30. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy through midday with snow of 3 to 6 inches, except 1 to 3 inches mid Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard where some rain mixes in and up to 1 inch outer Cape Cod and Nantucket where more rain falls, and pockets of over 6 inches possible favoring interior southeastern MA / RI, and also some sub-3-inch amounts possible in north central MA and southwestern NH. Breaking clouds and a glimpse of sun possible later in the day. Highs 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH over Cape Cod and the Islands.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill often near 0.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early sun then mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers possibly mixed with sleet and/or snow I-95 eastward, and snow/sleet showers possibly mixed with rain west of I-95, mostly midday and afternoon. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 15 at times.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated late-day snow showers. Highs 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 11-15)

One-day shot of bitterly cold air January 11. A couple of weak low pressure systems bring threats of snow or snow showers (maybe some mix) thereafter, but too early for details on any precipitation threats.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 16-20)

Overall pattern looks colder than average with a couple of snowfall threats possible, but generally drier than normal.

222 thoughts on “Thursday January 6 2022 (6:09AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK

    Model divergence abounds
    Gfs,3km Nam and Hrrr all want 6-8 inches while reg Nam,Euro,,Cmc, Rdps and Ukmet all want 2-4 , 3-5 ish

    Your 3-6 sounds very good to me.

    So far I am Not impressed by this set up at all.

    Here’s hoping we get under a juicy band
    and this system over achieves.

  7. “A winter storm is bearing down on us at this time.. we turn our full focus to the snow threat.”

    1) The winter storm is not bearing down on us at this time. So that statement is incorrect.

    2) Not a word about the black ice out in the suburbs.

    The quote is from a local radio station news anchor this morning. The weather provider that they use is also talking about double digit snowfall amounts in some locations.

  10. I feel like we’ve seen this before, a little storm in a progressive pattern, borderline warning criteria forecast at this range, only for it to overachieve. I think (based on gut and history) this will surprise us with some isolated double digit amounts.

    2. Agree & I have a strong hunch that Plymouth county will still be that bullseye. Fox 25 had 7+ as a potential. Anyway I just got the marching orders as I’ll be working it tonight . Stay safe everyone.

  13. WBZ is starting their morning news a half hour early tomorrow in order to “cover the storm.” … All 4 inches of it.

    I think the AM commute is the real issue. Even this morning it was a little dicey.

  16. I’m not sure what it is, whether’s its indicative of a 850/700 mb low ???

    But, while the sfc low is well southeast of the benchmark, there’s definitely a nice western extension of this system that’s creating heavier precip further west of a sfc low track than might be seen in a majority of instances.

      3. I feel like in past storms, we’ve talked about looking some distance northwest of the 850/700 mb low for the heaviest snow.

        Seems some occasions where, this has worked against Boston and SE Mass in the past.

        But, in this specific occasion, it may be working out perfect for us.

  19. Thanks TK.

    For most of eastern SNE, I would slightly revise my 3-6 from yesterday to 4-7, with a couple 8-9 inch amounts possible. Little bit of a snowier trend with good signals for some intense banding and a slightly longer duration event as the storm wraps up a bit earlier and keeps SNE in the developing comma head a little longer. But overall very little has changed.

      1. Should be a good one for you guys! Not a blockbuster but I’m sure you all will take it after the past couple months. Won’t be the last good snow event this month either…

        2. When the snow gets up around 8 inches, it begins to get
          serious for sure. Perhaps we stay a bit under that, but this is looking more and more like a moderate to heavy event
          vs a light to moderate event. We shall see.

          RDPS up next along with the ICON

    1. Knowing my interest in the weather, my students have been asking me, “Do you think we’ll have school tomorrow?” all morning long.

      My snarky reply: “I’ll let you know Monday!” 🙂

      Thanks, TK.

      1. My sons school is saying we are doing all that we can so there is no snow day tomorrow. Hello you are in Brockton which will be a hard hit .

  22. Hey all…if I may interrupt for a second…..well over a week ago some mentioned January 7. My response was “hmmmmmm the 7th.” Easy to check. Since then I have made several comments re snow on the 7th…..and why. A reminder, of when it was going to snow December 7 and I said, no the 9th. Well 8/9 it was

    I’ve posted a few times recently that the model that is unfailingly accurate WHEN IT SHOWS UP is the LEGNA model which showed snow on the Jan 7 consistently. I never doubted snow on the dec 9 nor did I doubt snow for tomorrow. Again, easy to trace in WHW comments. It is my mom’s Angel day. She was not a fan of storms, but knows I am and is simply giving a wink that she is always near. As we all know….I’m a firm believer in signs

    I suspect you have figured it out, but if not….Spell LEGNA backwards …

  23. Not sure this will translate, but the 12Z HREF is now showing
    1.5 – 2 inch per hour snow rate down in Kentucky for later this PM. Will be watching this feature fore sure.

    1. Waiting on the 12Z, but SW of us, it is already showing
      1-1.5″ per hour and a few areas of 1.5-2.0″ per hour.
      Waiting to see what it pastes for our area.

  28. With regard to the schools and snow tomorrow, it is for certain there will be either in-person learning or the traditional snow day depending on location. Between Baker and the DESE has seen to it that there will be NO remote learning anytime the remainder of the school year.

    I bet Boston has no school tomorrow for sure, and much of eastern MA. A 3-day weekend ahead! 🙂

    1. Absolutely agree . My sons school in Brockton likes to wait until the last minute & saying today doing everything to avoid it ( there probably in the high total area ) May cannot come quick enough .

  31. Last year Boston NY ended up tied for the season with 38.6 inches.
    Standings so far
    BOS 0.4
    NY 0.2
    I think BOS will have a much bigger lead when this storm system is over.

    1. Yankees and Red Sox also wound up tied in the standings. Sox `broke the tie’ by winning the wildcard game.

  32. Very true. I was really hoping last season that storm system in early March that never panned out was going to be the one game playoff to decide it all.

  33. As I mentioned last night, this system looks like a nice 4-8 range with several spots over 10. Wouldn’t rule out a foot somewhere. Fun times!

      1. unless a good part of it melts/sublimates Sunday, at least in southeast MA.

        We’ll probably get to low 40s Sunday and dps won’t be far behind.

        Snow melts quick down here by the ocean.

  39. Do you have a ballpark estimate for Natick? Seems to be right on the cusp of me using the snowblower or the plow guy coming. Things a bit crazy with south shore being in the sweet spot.

  40. Watch for the snow ratios up in Boston, N&W. Will be higher than 10:1.

    I have Natick around the 6 inch mark.

  42. Despite recent trends, we still have a spread across models…

    Despite my #s, the door is still unlocked.

      1. Yes. People only pay attention to big #s.
        Most ppl anyway on social media.

        SAK said it last night and he’s 100% correct.

        1. But too many social media folks are for the most part not worth listening to. I’m working with on remembering this and
          simply ignoring. I don’t ignore well but I am getting better.

          Surely they don’t make up more than an infinitesimal part of the whole in real life. I posted a tweet full of “Lexington” parents comments on the other page last week. Turns out not one was from Lexington and all were trolls

  46. Our local powerhouse news station on the radio is now mentioning amounts that include a foot. This is from their weather provider in Pennsylvania and not the local TV station.

  48. My Weekend Outlook and updated snowfall forecast is up:

    https://stormhq.blog/2022/01/06/weekend-outlook-january-7-10-2022/

    I raised numbers slightly since yesterday, but am still below most of the models. Part of that is my conservative nature in forecasting, and part is that I think the models are still overdoing everything. This is basically an 8-10 hour event. It’s not going to snow an inch an hour the entire time. I think the double-digit amounts will be very limited – you’ll see the upper-end of my forecast is 5-8″ across the I-95 corridor and SE MA/RI.

  50. I mentioned this to TK and he concurred – beware the model low temperature forecasts for the next few nights. The models have always struggle to account for the fresh snowcover after a storm. They’ve gotten better in the past few years, but still underestimate it. I think we’re going to really radiate Saturday evening until the clouds come in after midnight, when temperatures will start to rise. Wouldn’t surprise me if some places got into the single numbers Saturday night. Many of the models have caught on to this somewhat, but the 12z NAM for example, kept everyone in the 20s.

  56. For really all of the big SNE metros tomorrow (BOS, PVD, ORH, even BDL) my final call will be 5-8″. But there will probably be some 10″ or slightly higher totals out there (as well as a couple lower ones). Quite respectable for such a fast moving system. Good old fashioned snowstorm. No mixing (save for maybe the Cape), no big wind or coastal flood concerns. Just the snow 🙂

    2. Ty WxW! Can you comment on the FV3, you know the model that pretty much gives 1-3 inches to the entire continent? 😉

      1. I have definitely not been a fan of it so far. I do look at it, if only because it has the FV3 core and that’s the direction all of the NCEP models are likely heading. It was atrocious with the big snowstorm down here the other day – it brought accumulating snow much, much too far north. And in general I’ve found it to have a wet (or snowy) bias, both with winter systems as well as summer convection.

        At the moment, it looks like Tropical Tidbits hasn’t updated for it since yesterday’s 12z run, likely due to NCEP server issues yesterday. Pivotal has today’s 12z run, and in this case it appears generally in line with most other guidance.

        https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwfv3/2022010612/048/snku_acc.us_ma.png

  59. From Ryan Hanrahan
    Models showing the potential for a band of heavy snow (very effiicient snow flake growth, thundersnow possible, and a bit of “fluff factor”) most likely in NE CT to near Boston

  60. FWIW I agree with ch 5’s current snowfall map most as of this time. I can’t post it at the moment but I’m sure somebody can cover for me on that one. 😉

  63. Interesting shift in where the HRRR thinks the most important center of low pressure will be between its 12z run and it’s 20z run.

    I always wonder about this model in regards to these types of systems.

        1. Just shows you even some of the short range guidance still struggles with under 24 hours to go…

  65. doesn’t it have a tendency to try and concentrate on precipitation that isn’t always there to the east?

  66. 18z GFS trended higher with snowfall again. Showing more than .7 to 1 inch of precip across Eastern Mass with a 10 to 1 inches thats decent of course its the 18z but the trend is our friend.

    2. I am so thrilled about this. I have seen the story on TV 4 times and can’t get enough of it.

      I definitely want to know the story about the letter and what happened.

  69. Interesting to note the different approaches by the schools. Tomorrow is clearly a no-brainer day to keep people off the roads in the entire eastern mid-Atlantic and Northeast. From what I understand from you guys, Boston Public is closed entirely. However, down this way, Philadelphia is just switching to remote learning for the day, but keeping a full day.

    I understand the “no more snow days” mentality in light of our current technology, but if the snow day era is indeed ending, which it seems to be, I’m sure glad I was a kid before it did. Snow days were the best days…

    1. I firmly believe in the rite of snow days for children. But kudos to schools that have remote in place.

      1. Agreed, and with the (appropriately) more cautious approach to school decisions used these days, the days off could pile up fast. So it’s very worthwhile to have the virtual option to fall back on if needed, even if I don’t think it should be the go-to every time.

    2. I am a strong believe that if it would classify as a snow day, it should be a day off for the students and teachers. In the future I have a bad feeling it will be gone but if I ever have a family and its snowing out, I will say its a snow day get your backsides out there and start sledding and making snowballs. I think many would have the same feeling. Kids already have to much time being taken up by school and it is not helping the kids get ahead of other countries.

    3. It’s absurd. Expecting a child to be available for learning on Zoom while snow is falling out their window is ridiculous. I’d also argue that tacking on a 180th day in June when everyone is in summer mode does not make-up for a day in January but perhaps that’s a bridge too far for most…

  71. More From Ryan Hanrahan

    Besides growing more efficiently the other issue is that dendrites tend to pile up more quickly. The snow becomes light and fluffy! So instead of a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio you get 15:1 or even 20:1.

    An where that snow band sets up we expect 1 to 2″ per hour rates and the potential for even heavier totals than we’re currently forecasting. Stay tuned!

  73. As TK and JPD alluded to, HRRR showing a big difference in positioning of the low – between 12z and 20z runs. This would have an impact on snow totals in different locations, correct?

    1. If either ends up being correct, yes it would make a difference. Not sure we’re going to know these little details for another 12 hours.

    1. This one I feel is somewhat reasonable – maybe shift a tiny bit east. Hard to tell how that will set-up.

  75. There was a site where we could see the banding.
    I don’t remember the model, but I do remember looking at it.

    Does anyone have a link?

    Many thanks

    1. You might me thinking of the model that shows frontogenesis potential. I remember posting those a few times but they were taken either from Twitter or the American Wx forum. I dont recall the website or whether it was from a paid service or not.

      Regardless of what it is showing, it is such a crapshoot to try and figure out precisely where those heavier bands are going to set up until they are happening in real time.

      2. I didn’t display any emotion there – just merely stating what the run said. 🙂

        I haven’t changed my forecast at this point.

  77. Coventry Schools announced the kids are on a “remote learning snow day” tomorrow with a reduced schedule, getting out at 12:30. Virtually every other school in CT is outright cancelled so the kids are not happy!

    I guess the plan was that the first two snow days would be remote learning/reduced schedule and any additional snow days beyond that would be true snow days and made up at the end of the year.

    1. Ugh. May I vote for them to have a snow day please 😉

      Sutton had tried to do that in reverse …first two days snow days and rest remote but DESE shut it down and all have to be snow days.

      1. Yeah I am not sure on their rationale, the reverse seems more logical. At least it is an early release and they have the afternoon off!

  78. 6″+ in Nashville, setting a record for them for the day.

    Charleston, WV with just under 9″ now and still snowing.

  79. Its hard not to get a little excited about the upcoming pattern for the remainder of the month. Take a look at the 18z GFS loop from start to end and you can clearly see the potential that exists. Ample cold air, trough setting up over the east, and storms riding around the base and up the coast. I’m sure the specifics will change from run to run but I like the overall setup.

  81. Do some of these models now showing reduced snowfall lead to lower totals tomorrow or are they just noise with everything else?

    1. Mainly noise at this point. It’s going to all come down to the bands and where they set up. It’s tricky in this environment.

      I still think a 4-8 range is the way to go.

  82. HREF still shows 1-1.5 inch per hour for about 4 hours give or take. That’s where we get our numbers.

  85. So yup. I may be nuts believing in signs. As I think most know here, the crescent moon was special to my mom. She called it God’s fingernail. On the Eve of her angel day when I have knew there would be snow, her God’s fingernail has a halo around it.

  89. Euro has been really consistent for many runs – that isn’t something we see too often.

    RAP & HRRR nudge east and south a tiny bit with the “jackpot” area, numbers not too out of control on those models. I don’t necessarily trust those 2 though. The Oh Canada models are also a little east and south. UKMET seems a bit low.

  91. Snow has ramped up quickly here! Coming down moderately now and deck is completely covered.

    Radar really blossoming to the south. This thing is coming in hot and seems to be a bit ahead of schedule here.

  92. Really nice banding signature over me right now and dumping now. Some extremely heavy snow just to my east in Putnam County and NW RI that has got to be 2-3″ stuff.

    We are easily over 2″ and snowing around 1.5″ per hour. This stuff is adding up FAST. Huge fluff factor.

  98. Not as heavy here, Mark. About 2.25 so far. Looks about to pick up. I’m hoping if we do have thundersnow I won’t be back to sleep so soundly that I miss it

  99. Just got out farther onto the deck and made a better measurement. We are up to 5.5″! This thing is going to be a major overachiever in CT along and southeast of I-84. As heavy as it has been snowing here, the heaviest of the banding has been positioned just south and east of me on a line from BPT – New Haven to Colchester to Windham County to NW RI and now up through Boston. I could easily see double digit totals in some of these locales.

    A touch less QPF here but the snow is extremely light and fluffy and mounting up fast. This has way exceeded my expectations.

  100. 2.1″ of snow in last 30 min in Seymour CT for a rate of 4.2″/hour.

    Bob Maxon on NBC30 just upped totals for south and east CT to 6-10″ and said he might be low in many areas as some 1 foot amounts will be possible.

    Columbia CT reporting 8″….
    https://imgur.com/b24j3L0

  101. Overperformer definitely incoming SNE. Banding present as expected, but probably going to be a lot of 7-10, locally 12 or a little more…

  102. If you’re checking radar at this early hour, check out the scale of the main deformation band – it currently extends almost perfectly from Philadelphia to Boston!

    1. I’ve been watching it all night…havent been able to go to sleep!

      4″/hour snow rates reported now in both Seymour and North Haven, CT

      1. I have not even been in the meat of that heavy band and still have over 6″….the snow is pure fluff. I would not be surprised if the ratio is somewhere in the 15-20:1 range.

        The snowmap for CT that NWS issued at 3:30AM was low for what had already fallen, let alone what the actual totals will be (double that). They also should have upgraded Hartford and Tolland Counties to a WSW in their 4AM update.

  105. Snowing very hard here in JP.
    Looking out the window, looks like at least 3 inches already, if not more.

    Just sent a robo call to staff indicating that the building is closed today. Interesting, in the past it would have been a “snow” day.
    Now it is a mandatory “remote” day. 🙂

    1. I believe you may be correct about 10 inches. It depends upon
      how long we can stay under the impressive band. Get out of that band and snow fall rates really drop off.

      But, right now it is pounding big time!

  110. One observation, Up until a few minutes ago, what little wind there was, was drifting in from the NE. Now it is drifting in
    from the NW.

  111. Mark,
    Re: Model or website depicting banding

    There really was one. Not sure who posted the link.
    It may have been WxWatcher or it may have been Matt.

    One could select different kinds of banding signatures.

    It was really cool to see and use.

    I cannot find a link to it. Google searches were useless.

  112. Curious what final ratios will end like, my guess closer to 15:1. Snow growth temps are optimal

    1. It looks that way from my window. Of course I have not been out there, so can’t tell for sure. 🙂

    2. 6Z GFS has Ratio at 10:1 at the coast line with 12:1 Here in JP
      and 13:1 just inland from JP all the way West past Worcester.

    1. The band is narrowing some, but wondering if pinwheeling might bring us more light to moderate steady snow.

  119. Snow has most definitely lightened up here. Visibility has
    gone up as well. Not totally light yet, but I think Vis here
    has gone up from about 1/4 mile in Heavy Snow to about
    1 mile in decent light snow.

    Unless that band cranks up, we will fall short of double
    digits.

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