Monday January 10 2022 Forecast (7:03AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 10-14)

One cold front has passed by and introduced windy and colder weather to our region, and that will be the theme of today with generally dry weather. However, another cold front is on the way, an arctic one, and this one passes through the region later today through early tonight. While this front may trigger snow showers and squalls for some of us, it will bring in a blast of bitterly cold air for all of us on Tuesday. This is one feature that most of the guidance has actually done pretty well forecasting several days in advance, so kudos to the guidance I guess! I’m still not trusting most guidance out beyond a couple to a few days though. It’s already had varying solutions just over the last couple days for the evolution and movement of an ocean storm east of the Mid Atlantic and south southeast of New England later this week. Before we get to that, however, as we start to moderate out of the arctic air, a couple disturbances will bring some episodes of cloudiness to the region and maybe a touch of light snow later Wednesday and later Thursday. By the time we get to Friday, the ocean storm should be cranking out there at sea, and while I feel it will be far enough away for no direct impact with its precipitation shield, a northeasterly air flow between it and high pressure to our north by Friday may create a period of snow showers across southeastern portions of the WHW forecast area – something to monitor and fine tune as the week goes on. Even after we moderate from tomorrow’s bitter blast, we’ll still run on the colder side of normal through the week, the first extended stretch of cold we’ve had in quite a while.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated late-day snow showers. Highs 24-31. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 20.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening with isolated to scattered snow showers and snow squalls, some of which can briefly cause very low visibility, strong wind gusts, and quick coatings of snow with hazardous travel. Clearing overnight. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill -5 to -15.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 7-14. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 0.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -1 to +6. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing. Wind chill -5 to -15 evening.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow flurries possible. Lows 20-27. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow. Lows 20-27. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers southeastern MA. Highs 28-35.Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 15-19)

Watching two potential storm systems to impact the region with wintry precipitation during this period, focusing on the January 15-16 weekend (especially later Saturday into Sunday) and later January 17 into January 18. Low confidence forecast due to uncertain guidance, but the pattern supports this. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 20-24)

Similar pattern – watching for a couple potential precipitation threats. Temperatures near to below normal. No details possible this far in advance.

84 thoughts on “Monday January 10 2022 Forecast (7:03AM)”

          1. He’s doing ok, mild symptoms showing up this morning, appt with his pedi scheduled for this afternoon including some form of a COVID test. Fingers crossed its negative since we have funeral services to attend later in the week for my grandma

            1. Oh boy, Sorry to hear but your GrandMother. Grandmothers are so special.

              Hope your son tests negative and feels better asap! Good luck.

            4. Oh Ace. I am just catching up today I had not seen this. I’m so sorry to hear and will keep your son in my prayers ….we all will

  7. So glad no flash freeze this morning. Streets and sidewalks bone dry. Tonight may be a different story?

    1. I was going to mention that. Snow that fell was fluffy, so I think there was settling/compaction due to the mild weather and rain and of course there was melting on top of that.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    Love seeing 3-10 as lows. Would prefer lower, but I’ll take any single digit night that I can get.

    1. So far, it is looking OK, but it’s only Monday and we know
      how sucky the medium range guidance has been.

    1. Sunday’s system appears well off shore as well.

      FWIW, Temperatures for Pats game look to be in the teens.

      BRRRR

      1. Good, colder the better. -15F would make me happy, harder to catch a pass. Any weather element that can work against Buffalo’s passing game.

  18. Ace, I’m sorry for your loss. 🙁 Also, I hope all is well there soon.

    Social media commentary: I was alerted to someone’s post today talking about the all out snowy pattern coming up starting with a January 15 snowstorm. When asked by several people where they got this info from, their answer each time was “trust me”. It turns out that this person is a plow operator having gotten this info from a “weather page” run by a weather enthusiast. This is a perfect example of the big problem regarding weather info. Bad information being relayed by ignorant people, which is then believed by others and passed along…..

    Regarding the actual weather, I have nothing to add to my blog discussion at this time. Carry on. Stay warm!

    1. Fortunately, no one listens to folks on social media. If they do, that is their problem and their ain’t no way it will be fixed.

        1. Nope. It is that way with social media in general which represents such a small percent of folks that it isn’t worth the time.

      2. Some do, and it is their problem.
        Still though, some of those very people go on spreading the mis-information, and then when the forecast doesn’t work out, somehow the actual meteorologists get the blame. That part is unfair and that part I will continue to fight against in the name of my profession. No standing down until it stops.

        1. Of, course it is not fair. But those who listen won’t be swayed either. ‘Tis a bit like Don Quixote tilting at wind mills. All you can do is your best and ignore the best. I guarantee you will not make a difference

  19. Thanks TK.

    12z CMC clocks the mid Atlantic this weekend with another snow event. Need to move that high over eastern CA back west a bit to give that storm a chance to round the corner and move up the coast rather than scoot out to sea beneath us.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022011012&fh=132

    CMC, like the GFS, likes another opportunity towards the middle of next week.

    They are not all going to materialize but this pattern should be ripe with chances the next 2-3 weeks.

  20. Longshot, thank you for posting this: “The high temp for Quebec City tomorrow is -6 degrees. Wind chill -35 to -40.”

    I imagine myself running on the boardwalk in front of the Frontenac, overlooking the old town and the St. Lawrence. Wish I could be there. Alas, too much work to do. They’re also in lockdown, so there would be much open. I might head up there later this winter when things ease up.

  22. Impressive satellite image this morning of the lake effect snow bands from Ontario reaching all the way into central MA, RI, and NE CT.

    NWS Boston
    @NWSBoston
    1h

    [10:30 AM] If you think you are seeing some snow flurries this morning, you aren’t crazy! A finger of lake effect snow has made it all the way to Providence RI! Hartford, CT and Springfield, MA have also reported light snow this morning.

    https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1480561303408168963?s=20

  29. Does anyone know what the Winter Instability Index looks
    like for this PM and this evening?

    I used to have a link to a model for this, but I have no idea where that is. Anyone have a link?

    1. The WPC surface map doesn’t even show a 2d cold front.
      I guess the cold air will just ooze in here, which would suggest
      no snow squalls to me. Of course, that doesn’t mean that
      the WPC has the surface map correct either.

      1. From the NWS

        Some guidance suggests
        that snow showers may revamp across NE MA this afternoon, as a
        shortwave begins to nudge into the area between 20 and 22Z, but
        given the dry airmass in place, any show showers will likely
        equate to just intermittent flurries; visibility reductions are
        not expected at this time.

      2. That’s just poor analysis. There’s a front. It will be moving north to south across the region late evening / overnight (just a tad later than previously indicated).

          1. It’s been a little iffy.
            I don’t think they focus on surface analysis as much as they used to. A lot of people don’t even realize how important it is.

            But yes that arctic front definitely exists and it will be dropping southward through the region, probably passing through Boston between midnight and 2:00 a.m.

  30. 25 here in JP at the current time. Topped out at 29 during the daylight hours, but was 40 just after midnight.

    3. That’s wonderful to hear, Ace. My grandmother was 97 when she died also. Not sure if she had a great life, as there were hardships, but she gave a lot of love to her family and all kinds of people over the years. And she taught me about weather using the moon, the wind and a weathervane on top the barn.

  32. It will be interesting with this cold if the ocean temperatures (47F) will start a steady decline in the coming weeks. How low will it go? We will see.

    1. Because all the 12z models had no snowstorms. 😉

      That changed with at least one at 00z and still probably be wrong, at least with regard to something.

    1. Of course every run is different, and will probably continue to be that way, especially given what model we’re talking about. 😉

  38. Regarding the GFS “bomb”….
    Would like to see some support from
    the Euro and Cmc. Not there as of now.
    Watch and wait.

    1. There are a few hints that we could still get clipped by the Friday system.
      Provably not, but watching just the same

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