Tuesday January 11 2022 Forecast (7:34AM)

158 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 10-14)

Some areas received a coating of snow in the pre-dawn hours from snow showers and snow squalls as an arctic cold front made its way southward across the region. Some of these snow showers continue over southeastern MA at dawn but will be moving out soon, although a few additional snow showers may occur near the outer portion of Cape Cod today due to the arctic air flowing over the relatively warm ocean water nearby. We have one more very cold night on tap tonight before high pressure shifts offshore Wednesday and a warm front moves through with an increase in cloud cover but also a warm-up, with the temperature going above freezing for most as a milder southwesterly air flow takes over. A couple disturbances will pass by the region, one to the north Wednesday night and another probably to the south of us Thursday night as that frontal boundary slips back through as a cold front, but other than a brief episode of light snow with either of these, not really expecting much to happen. The energy will help ignite an ocean storm south of New England Thursday into Friday, the bulk of which will pass offshore, but it may be close enough to throw a period of snow/mix into the Cape Cod area for a while on Friday. We’ll need to keep an eye on this system just in case it ends up further northwest than currently expected. Either way, its movement into the Canadian Maritimes will help drawn down another brief shot of arctic air for the start of the weekend.

TODAY: Early morning clouds and a few snow showers southeastern MA and eastern RI, and occasional clouds and snow showers outer Cape Cod through at least midday, otherwise sunny. Highs 7-14. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 0, as low as -15 at times.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -1 to +6. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing. Wind chill -5 to -15 evening.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow flurries possible. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few snow flurries. Lows 20-27. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers southeastern MA and chance of snow/mix Cape Cod / Islands. Highs 28-35.Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow shower. Lows 8-15. Wind N 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 0.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 17-24. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 0.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 16-20)

Watching two potential storm systems to impact the region with wintry precipitation during this period, focusing on January 16 and January 18. Low confidence forecast due to uncertain guidance, but the pattern supports this. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 21-25)

Similar pattern – watching for a couple potential precipitation threats. Temperatures near to below normal. No details possible this far in advance.

158 thoughts on “Tuesday January 11 2022 Forecast (7:34AM)”

  4. Thank you TK.

    We have a beautiful 1/2″ of fluff this morning in Lunenburg. It was great being outside when clearing off the cars – there is almost no wind right now.

  9. Thanks, TK.

    While it’s cold it really isn’t that cold. In fact, I was not impressed early this morning. Disappointed. It’s been significantly colder, even in recent years, WITHOUT so much darn hype. I admit, I kind of bought into the TV hype, thinking wow, this is going to be a bitter Arctic blast. Running at 6:30am this morning, I felt I was gypped a bit by the TV mets. The first half mile was cold, but very manageable. After that it just wasn’t that cold.

    1. Agree. Last nights news broadcast would make one think
      it has NEVER been this cold in the history of the area!!!

      I can’t stand the media hype. Crap, it’s January in New England.
      Occasionally it gets damn cold. Live with it.

      1. Reports made it seem like it would be close to record cold and then came in with low of 7 and record was 10 below.

      1. I’m with Joshua.

        I can remember living in Millis and commuting to
        Northeastern each day. One morning it was 17 below.
        I went out and took a deep breath, got the car started and was off to school. Just another friggin day is all.

    3. It’s right around where I expected to to be after our well-defined front with snow squalls.

  14. It’s about 6 degrees here on the north shore. Doesn’t feel all that bad but I did skip the shore walk which I do everyday. Maybe this afternoon. I think the snow squall gave us a quarter to a half inch.

    Actually more interested in the weather for the Pats game on Saturday night and what appears to be a precipitation event on Sunday as TK mentioned.

  15. Just an FYI … In the C-19 Chat section, I posted the link for the new program to download your vax info to your smart phone. the program started yesterday.

  16. Well, it’s still only 8 here in JP.
    Certainly very cold and it will be a very cold day, but nothing
    we haven’t seen before.

    I am not impressed with 8 degrees in the AM, however, 8 degrees at 2 PM would be impressive. I don’t think it will be 8, but it might be 10,11 or 12, which is still pretty impressive. It is not often we see daytime temperatures in the single digits or
    even low teens.

    Can the Friday system sneak close enough to the coast?

  20. It will be interesting if Logan ends up with a recorded 0.1 inch from the early morning squalls. Let’s see what the climate stats say later this afternoon.

  22. It appears now that the Northern stream may lift a little north
    allowing a closer pass of the ocean storm. Even the GFS is
    looking a bit more interesting as it comes out.

  26. I am not sure the overall pattern would support a track like that the GFS is showing. With that said the GEFS shifted west and is east of many of the ensembles. Many of the ensembles are within the benchmark to over SE Mass.
    EPS wide spread with the ooz but the EURO is more centralized with the EPS. Lots of time between now and Monday to iron this out but the SE could see a decent storm out of this.
    Before we talk about this though that ocean storm is still some what up in the air as well Could track closer to the coast. which would impact the second storm.

    1. Right about the expectation.

      Local media did a good job keeping this cold shot in the correct perspective. I was very pleased with how they even explained Boston’s high temp for today would be at midnight.

      That stuff is important as it helps complete the understanding that the core of this cold is passing through during the day.

      There’s always educational opportunity with each weather event.

  29. Judah does qualify these tweet by saying he is not predicting a repeat of 2014-2015….

    Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    Jan 10

    1/ As I write today’s blog, the predictions for the mid-tropospheric circulation with increasing high latitude blocking especially near Alaska & deepening troughing in eastern N America could potentially yield the most active mid-winter pattern in the Eastern US since 2014 & 2015

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1480544094770409477?s=20

  30. Ryan | Forecast
    @RyanMaue
    3h

    If the GFS model is accurate for the next 2 weeks (it’s not), then wooly mammoths will be expanding their habitat across the entire United States, except for Florida, of course.

  33. 12z GEFS for the Sunday/Monday storm threat…..

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2022_01/Jan11_12zGEFS150.png.b6c018b59a93ad04db0148bfffcf0b45.png

    Huge spread amongst the ensemble low tracks from inside runners to whiffs out to sea. Overall mean looks good near the benchmark.

    6 days out so plenty of time to watch this one. I agree with Matt that an inside runner/rain storm doesn’t seem to fit the pattern we are in and I would lean towards a colder solution early on. What happens with the Friday ocean storm is likely to impact what happens with this follow-up threat.

    1. This pattern is locked and loaded. Not all the opportunities will be hits and we could get unlucky, but I think odds are good for 2 or 3 more decent snow events before Jan is done.

  35. Just did some errands. It is spectacular outside. Bright sunshine, not too windy, refreshing air.

    I’m a total wimp in summer. I admit it. I can’t bear anything over, say, 88F.

    But, I’m in my element in this kind of weather. So, I’m ecstatic that we’re having this stretch, with some snow chances, too.

  38. May I ask a favor. Please. My sister in law is fighting a rough battle. She had emergency surgery for a ruptured colon last Thursday. It’s still one day at a time.I strongly believe in both the power of prayer and of positive thoughts. If you have a minute, I’d sure appreciate a prayer or positive thought. Thank you very much !

  42. Off the subject, but for anyone interested, my wife
    and I watched the new movie on Amazon Prime entitled
    The Tender Bar, starring Ben Affleck and Christopher Llyod.

    We thought it was excellent and we really enjoyed it.
    It is such a warm and loving movie. I highly recommend it.
    Not suitable for children. or view it yourself before letting
    the children see it.

    Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-DS9vtLeEs

  43. 12z model commentary…

    Same deal as always – not really worried about run-to-run details especially from day 4 onward.

    That said, I think Friday’s system may be a tad closer than the average position on the guidance, and I think the threat for Sunday / Monday may end up being 2 different threats, one Sunday, and one Tuesday, but I’m getting ahead of myself. FWIW, if the system is more of a single threat, I shy away from leaning on the operational models – lean toward the ensembles – not a hugger / not an inside runner, and this is out on a limb even more but it probably won’t be a powerhouse either.

  44. For the Sunday/Monday system…..GFS, Euro and CMC ensemble means are all well east of the operational runs and show a track closer to the benchmark.

    12z GEFS:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2022_01/Jan11_12zGEFS150.png.b6c018b59a93ad04db0148bfffcf0b45.png

    12z EPS:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2022_01/Jan11_12zEPS150.thumb.png.f833fa921192fa580916b4bfa2b97aa3.png

    12z GEPS

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2022_01/92922880-6BB5-43C6-956C-952E95A86A0B.png.8d547a2d9a79f7930220483371463f8d.png

    1. Pay more attention to these, also a weaker first wave Sunday and something that lags it becoming a threat 2 days later.

      1. Interesting idea… Perhaps what happens with Friday’s ocean storm could impact the configuration and strength of the Sun-Tues system (or systems)?

        1. Yes. I mentioned this idea back on Saturday on an amateur page to kind of give the readers there a heads-up that it wasn’t just about “the models”.

    2. Operational runs in all instances are on the western envelope of model solutions.

      In the EPS, note some extremely strong low centers in the 970’s right near the benchmark.

      This has the potential to be a big one NW of the track if everything comes together.

      Keep in mind these same models were showing this system well out to sea 12-24 hours ago. There will be many more changes in future runs I’m sure.

  45. The GEM’s op run is also tight to the coast or right over New England for the late weekend threat it depicts. The fact all 3 major global models did that in one run for a system that far in the future tells me that they are still missing a significant piece of the puzzle, and my A.M.E. theoretical application tells me that they are misfiring on what to do with pieces of energy, all in the same way. Not the first time we’ve seen this, if I am right. If not, well, at least I won’t be detailing anything about this threat for a few more days. 😉

    1. If there is the promise of anything on the 16th, my dedicated and remarkably accurate LEGNA model would be in place. Otherwise, not so much.

    2. Good! I love Tuukka. Talk about a guy that has given his all to a hockey team and gotten nothing but crap from so-called fans. The guy left for personal reasons and nobody could respect it. Disappointing. He’s a solid goalie, and when it came down to a game 7 to win it all, he got no support from his team that night yet got all the blame. Shame on those “fans”. Shame on them. Go Tuukka!

  47. Thank you, TK, for continuing to inform and educate me.

    Hello and belated Happy New Year, everyone. We returned to the US this morning after 2 1/2 weeks in South Africa — so I have been enjoying summer. The cold and bright sun were a great welcome back, too. 🙂

      1. 18z GEFS is actually a tiny tick east of the 12z GEFS when the storm makes its closest pass, and both outside 40/70.

    1. Yeah he was well liked & a fixture in homes for years . It was on my at my house when I was growing up & my son grew up watching it as well . Been a sad January !!

  50. TK – What configuration do we need for the Friday system to make subsequent events to be mostly snow?

    1. That system won’t really be a large determining factor, but only play a part in the overall puzzle. We’ll see how its associated upper level configuration fits in with the overall flow pattern.

      Making the assumption that the late weekend / early week threat is one system, there’s still too much wiggle room to be sure. And beyond that, we don’t even know of any specific threats due to the model situation, as previously discussed. What we do know is that the pattern is somewhat favorable for the next few weeks for “things to happen”. But even a pattern that looks promising doesn’t guarantee anything specific. We still have to take those case by case.

  52. I love the set up for Monday’s storm. Ensembles are much further East than Ops. I think we get a doozy.

    1. A bit early to be sure on that. I’m a little leery of the GFS suddenly amplifying things starting with one run. This reminds me of the problem the ECMWF used to have, but doesn’t have as badly now for some reason.

  53. Not that I put great stock in the CFS, but if it has its way, the Northeast will get 3 outbreaks of arctic air with temperature departures of -20 to -40 F in late January to early February.

    Those forecast maps remind me of the 1980s.

        1. Oh that’s fine. 🙂 I love seeing the different models posted. People can do that all they want. It’s fun, and at the same time it can prompt discussions on the actual performance, for the benefit of those who like to try to figure out stuff. 🙂 Same idea with me bringing up that CFS temperature forecast on a previous comment. 😉

  55. It is funny after one snowfall last week and potential snow threats the next couple weeks I don’t hear winter is cancelled. It was non stop in December.

  56. Something to keep in mind, we have a massive injection of cold air for the system. My guess that should shunt the system off the coast. I would place bets on a decent system at this point near the benchmark.

    1. Thank you very much. Thank you everyone. Just spoke to my brother. She is on a ventilator with seven IVs but she is fighting to get better. She beat stage 4 cancer so is one heck of a strong woman

  59. Don’t knock the NAVGEM guys….there are several 18z GFS and 12z Euro ensemble members that look exactly like it! Lots of 970mb-980mb bombs near the benchmark.

    Potential is there for this storm to be a big one, perhaps biggest in years in some areas, but hard to get too excited yet at 5 days out. If it is still looking like this on Thursday, may be time for SAK to issue a Severe Hype Watch!

    1. As far as the NAVGEM goes, I look at the overall performance. It’s never been a good model. But you know, even a broken clock……. 😉

  60. Here is the 18z GEFS for Sunday night/Monday:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2022011118&fh=144

    As mentioned above, the ensemble mean looks NOTHING like the operational. All members except one well east of the operational.

    Quite frankly I am still more worried about a sideswipe or miss out to sea at this point than an inland runner. 18z ICON at 180 hours looked like it was going to go that route.

  63. I don’t like it when guidance advertises a big storm this far out. It rarely pans out and the end result is a miss or a grazing. The only big storm that was advertised this far out that panned out was the blizzard of 2013.

      1. Don’t think it’s too early to discuss the system. Too early to put out numbers but never too early to discuss the potential.

    2. I can think of others…Superstorm of 93 comes to mind. That was raising eyebrows over a week in advance, and with inferior model data.

      5 days out isn’t really that far in advance but I agree, in this fast flow pattern with inconsistent and unreliable modeling, I am not going to get excited until we get to Thursday and see some more consistency with the model runs.

      1. I was thinking of that also. It is the one where my in-laws called from London where they were visiting friends because they had heard about the storm…..well ahead My sons birthday is March 13 and he still remembers having to cancel his party 🙁

    3. There have been a few. I want to say 2008 or 2013 (not sure why I can’t remember specifically which year) there was a major snowstorm well-forecast about 5 days out. It happens, but it’s not a frequent occurrence.

  64. Before whatever comes later in the weekend, early next week, another plunge of cold Saturday.

    18z GFS projects 8F at 8am Saturday and the 00z NAM has 2F for the same time in Boston.

  67. 00z GFS cuts the storm over central PA, stalls it out there temporarily and then ejects it northeastward. End result is a front end dump of snow in SNE, followed by a period of heavy rain, then dry slot.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022011200&fh=129&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera Snow:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022011200&fh=159&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc&m=gfs

    I’m going to take a gamble that the ensemble mean does not agree with this solution.

    1. At 18z Saturday the position is already about 100 miles further NW with the mean low center. Not so sure …

      1. One thing I will say is that there are a lot of very flat, weak, and out to sea members in the ensembles that are skewing the mean east. If you take those out, you are left with a lot of stronger members hugging the coast, closer to the operational.

        Good thing the models are doing this now, rather than 2-3 days out. Plenty of time to shift back east 🙂

      2. Also – as Tom pointed out, very cold air mass incoming for Saturday. That airmass isnt going to dislodge easily. Even that GFS solution with the track over PA results in a front end thump of 6″ of snow across much of the interior before a change to rain.

        1. The problem is, that air mass may not stay as long as it looked like before. High pressure forecast position is quite different now. Set up is not ideal if this is a good forecast. The ensemble mean is already considerably west from 2 runs ago as of 06z on the 17th.

          1. 36 hours ago that high was over eastern CA and sending this storm out halfway to Bermuda while we enjoyed cold and cirrus. The positions and movement (and strength) of these features have huge implications on the evolution of this low pressure. Dont know why I torture myself 5 days out trying to figure this stuff out…..just going to have to be patient and wait until we are in better range 🙂

  68. GEFS is still outside but a lot closer. That’s a trend to pay attention to as well. We’ve a long way to go on this one, given it’s almost a week away still.

      1. 06z operational GFS continued to move further west. At this rate (in the event that op GFS trend was correct) we’d have a mild day with scattered rain showers. 😉

  70. The 00z GFS operational run is more than 100 miles farther west than the westernmost member of the Ensemble. In other words, the op run is an extreme outlier. Toss it.

  71. 00z Euro looks very similar to 12z. Potent coastal hugger and 983mb as it tracks over western LI and into CT. Snow to heavy rain scenario in most of SNE.

Comments are closed.