Friday January 14 2022 Forecast (7:37AM)

126 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 14-18)

Today’s update holds very similar thoughts to yesterday’s. We’re dealing with an offshore ocean storm today that will create increasing wind, especially along the coast, but only minor precipitation, in the form of rain mainly over Cape Cod and up possibly to about Plymouth before it pulls offshore, possibly with a few insignificant snowflakes or some minor accumulation at best at the end later today. But tonight, as the storm intensifies and lifts toward the Canadian Maritimes, it will, combined with high pressure north of the Great Lakes, pull in an arctic air mass with a plunging temperature, a rapid freeze-up of any wet surfaces, and a very low wind chill. The arctic chill will be around right through Saturday night too as the high pressure area presses closer to the region, then sits over us for the early part of Sunday, which will also be a cold but more tranquil day. You’ll notice an increase in high clouds as Sunday goes along, and this will be due to the approach of a low pressure area from the south southwest. The expectation remains that this storm will have a short-lived but significant impact on the region Monday (MLK Jr Day), with its track to determine precipitation type. While I wait for the guidance to help us figure out the storm’s interaction with some energy in the northern jet stream (the storm is being carried by a southern jet stream in a split flow), the leaning will still be toward yesterday’s outlook, a low track that passes over or just west of the WHW forecast area, with precipitation starting as snow inland and snow/mix/rain in coastal areas, with possibly a change to rain pushing inland, but not 100% certain this will happen just yet, so the wording of the detailed forecast will remain vague enough to cover this uncertainty, which will be detailed more on tomorrow’s and Sunday’s blog updates. The storm, in whatever form we see its precipitation, will exit late Monday and be followed by drier, colder weather Tuesday.

TODAY: Cloudy. A period of rain Cape Cod / Islands that may end as mix with or change to snow this afternoon with brief minor accumulation of snow possible. Clouds may thin especially in western areas later. Highs 37-42 except 42-47 Cape Cod this morning. Temperatures falling this afternoon by midday. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH coastal areas with higher gusts, as high as 40 MPH inland and as high as 60 MPH over Cape Cod by later in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow shower anywhere but snow showers likely Cape Cod / Islands where some accumulation is likely. Lows 1-6 except 7-12 Cape Cod. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often well below 0.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny except partly cloudy with possible snow showers outer Cape Cod. Highs 16-23. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 0.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-8 except 9-14 South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.. Wind chill below 0 early.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Rain/mix/snow arriving overnight. Temperatures rise to 30s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Cloudy with rain/mix/snow likely, ending by late. Highs 38-45. Wind SE to variable 10-20 MPH, stronger gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Sun and clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 19-23)

Watch for a couple addition but probably weaker systems to bring mostly minor precipitation threats with temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 24-28)

Temperatures near to below normal and additional opportunities for wintry weather.

126 thoughts on “Friday January 14 2022 Forecast (7:37AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    6z gfs ensembes have moved NW.
    Looks like a pass right over boston area.

    Still waiting and watching.

  7. How far inland does the coastal region go? Looking at the wind estimates and wondering if Natick qualifies for gusts to 40.

    1. I just consider it “a few miles” as a rule of them, bit it’s also a function of geography.

      1. Thanks, TK. Are you more concerned about wind issues tonite or Monday. I realize that Monday’s outlook is still a work in progress.

  11. Thanks, TK.

    I suspect you recall tracking a storm predicted for Jan 16, 2016. You kept me calm by believing the system would miss us. And it did with little impact to travel on that date. After, you said many had no idea how large the system was that we had missed.

    1. I actually do, which is surprising because I have a better memory for storms from last century. 😉

  12. My non -meteorological experience tells me that these types of events can be tricky. We have been fooled before. As TK says , there is plenty of time to watch.

  13. I feel for portions of the interior Carolinas, as this is a cold air damming scenario that can create a large area of ice, that I’m sure they are not equipped at all for.

    1. Asheville has a winter storm watch beginning Sat. evening; the details reference both snow and ice, so there’s hope that people will be somewhat prepared.
      Thanks for the heads up! I have a daughter in that area.

  15. The 12z NAM is more phased. Deeper storm, more inland and puts a very, very strong 80-90 (850 mb) jet over New England.

    This projection, if verified, makes wind the headliner in eastern, southeastern and south coast locations.

  17. It’s looking more and more like Boston gets a few flakes, perhaps a few ice pellets and then a RAIN_WINDORAMA!!!

  18. Thank you, TK.

    Had the impressive ocean storm southeast of us been 150 miles closer and had the incoming Arctic high been closer we would have had a nice blockbuster winter storm today. Alas.

    1. I’m not `feeling’ it as far as Monday is concerned, at least not for coastal areas. I don’t like snow/mix to rain solutions. Might as well not snow. Glop is kind of gross. The good news is that ski country will get some much-needed snow.

  19. 12z NAM says only snow in Canada.

    My biggest concern is the wind tonight and potential power outages with the cold incoming.

    I was talking with with my youngest yesterday about being grateful to have a warm house etc.. and you know what he says to me. “Baba we should build a hotel so anyone who can’t afford a house can stay warm when it gets cold, that’s what I want to do when I get older” oh my where does that come from. Too sweet.

  21. Thanks TK.

    I don’t believe Boston will see measurable snow Sunday night-Monday. May start out briefly as a few flakes or pellets.

    Meteorologically, this is a classic warm storm. Retreating high, strong WAA aloft, inland track. All the factors you look for to limit winter weather. I don’t think New England ski country will do especially well either, though they may get a front end thump.

    We’ll have to see about the wind threat. That’s an impressive LLJ on the NAM, nearing 90 kt at 850 mb. However, very often the wind threat gets overplayed in these cases due to strong low level stability keeping most of that wind trapped aloft.

    2. Well, I don’t like it either. However, I am not surprised one
      single bit.

      Maybe we’ll get lucky and when the upper air is better sampled
      tonight, things will change. I am NOT counting on it and It would
      be a pleasant surprise should it happen.

  24. Hadi, your child’s statement is so wonderful: “Baba we should build a hotel so anyone who can’t afford a house can stay warm when it gets cold, that’s what I want to do when I get older.”

  27. What a roller coaster ride we will be on temperature-wise the coming days. Yesterday in the mid 40s and sunny (it felt toasty). Today starts out mild but ends colder and tomorrow is quite cold, followed by seasonable and sunny on Sunday. Monday back up to the mid 40s and rain, followed by seasonable on Tuesday, Wednesday back up to the 40s again. After that it looks like we’ll get more consistency. But, I must say I’m skeptical. I’ll believe it when I see it. I think we’re going to be in for more oscillation.

  28. Well one significant puzzle piece remains over water and will be coming over land tonight…

    As previously stated, I (and others) will put a little more stock in the guidance starting at 00Z tonight. If it is still showing the same solution then I’ll start leaning even more toward that western track, but this is still not a guarantee.

  29. I been saying since I put out my outlook for this winter that within a few days of me leaving this winter we will get a storm. This Monday storm is before but the GFS is showing a storm on the 23rd the day after I leave. So book it in as a lock to just mess with me. Just don’t have it on the 22nd.

      1. yeah its why this one looks like snow to rain while the GFS has a snowstorm on the 23rd all my fault sorry WHW community. I will be gone soon 😛 😀

  31. TK – What exactly does that Pacific energy have to do to to so we in SNE can get more in the way of “frozen” precip for Sunday/Monday?

    2. If the northern stream energy (the one coming in from the NP)
      is flatter it will force the southern stream energy to stay more to the South and move more to the East, thus possibly allowing
      a snow storm here. If that Northern Stream energy digs more,
      it will allow the Southern stream storm to move more North and West, giving us a rain storm.

      As models depict it now, they expect it to dig enough to pull
      the storm West of us.

      We shall see what they do after the energy comes ashore.
      My guess is, the storm will be pulled WEST! But I hope not

    3. The faster it is to interact with the Low the more west and inland the surface low tracks. The slower it interacts the further south and east it will be. Of course another thing is how fast does the surface low move but in general the models are in rather good agreement about that.

      1. as well with what JP said flat vs more amplified. which is also dependent on the western ridge which is a bit stronger than what models are depicting if I am reading the surface analysis correctly.

          1. The above answers are adequate, but any event really depends on a lot of things. It only seems snow events are to many people because snow events are much more scrutinized, and it also is a precipitation type that occurs in a set of conditions we only get for a portion of the year.

  33. I guess my anticipation in the 00z model suite, is to see, as the upper low crosses the province of British Columbia and is better sampled, will this lead to a projection of an even sharper northern stream trof and an even more phased system ??

    As it is, the 12z and 18z model runs seemed to have lowered the projected pressure to upper 970 mbs and have an 80-90 knot (850) mb jet.

    What if the better sampling projects an even better phasing?
    mid 970s pressures ?? An 850 mb jet nearing 100 knots ??

    I´ll try to stay awake thru to the 00z GFS 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  34. The wind is currently gusting to 30, maybe 35 mph in my neighborhood and maybe 40-45 mph at the Brant Rock seawall. Our Ford truck was shaking, parked at the wall.

    The ocean is angry and building steadily. Thankfully, it was low tide.

    1. Marshfield airport reporting gust to 33. You are closer to the water, so could easily be seeing 35-40 mph.
      Saw a 56 mph gust at Nantucket.

  36. Good Sunset Watch in effect for the next 30 minutes in southern NH, parts of eastern and central MA, down into eastern CT and maybe western RI.

      1. Though I would love to stay in Mass for a snow storm I have to get back to St. Thomas and my flight is Saturday morning so this is probably one of two days I would ever ask for a snow storm not to happen.

        1. I also love that kind of weather, as you (and most everybody) knows. 🙂 You and I diverge as it gets warmer and more humid though.. HAHA.

  42. The 12z GFS snowstorm is gone on the 18z, but that’s not a surprise. I heard somebody say that models are not that reliable beyond a few days. 😉

  43. The late afternoon discussion by NWS is excellent. It’s not quite a Walt Drag level discussion, but it’s excellent just the same.
    The discussion was written by KJC & Loconto…
    I love how they basically said they let the NBM make the forecast for them from Tuesday on. 🙂

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
    430 PM EST Fri Jan 14 2022

    .SYNOPSIS…
    A passing powerful coastal low combined with building strong
    high pressure over Quebec will bring strong to damaging winds,
    dangerously cold wind chills tonight. Minor accumulation of snow
    expected across Cape Cod tonight as well. Dry weather but
    blustery and frigid for Saturday. A strong storm will impact
    the region late Sunday night into Monday with heavy snow over
    the higher elevations and mainly rain in the coastal plain, with
    strong to damaging winds along the coast as well as coastal
    flooding. Blustery and cold weather returns Tuesday. A weak
    frontal system may impact the region Wednesday followed by
    colder weather Thursday and Friday.

    &&

    .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/…
    430 PM Update:

    Distant but powerful coastal storm centered approximately
    39N/68W will continue to move NNE into the waters south of Nova
    Scotia by early Saturday morning. Meanwhile ridging associated
    with a strong 1040 mb high pressure cell near Hudson Bay
    continues to build into interior New England. Due to a
    tightening pressure gradient between these two features, N/NW
    wind gusts have begun to develop across most of SNE. As of this
    writing, gusts 25-35 mph have been common; through a gust
    recently of 60 mph was reported at Nantucket.

    No changes to active headlines were made with this forecast package.
    We remain concerned for strong to damaging N/NW winds; very low to
    dangerous wind chills as Arctic cold air moves in; and minor, sub-
    Advisory snow across Cape Cod and the Islands that could lead to
    slippery travel tonight.

    More detail:

    == Strong to Damaging Winds ==

    Will be at least blustery NW winds across all of SNE tonight, with
    gusts up to 40 mph outside of wind-headline areas (mainly NW of I-
    95).

    We still remain the most concerned for damaging wind gusts between
    60 to as much as 70 mph across Cape Cod and the Islands. Bufkit fcst
    soundings from NAM and GFS still show mixing to about 900 mb as
    stronger cold advection occurs. Progged 925 mb winds are as much as
    65 kt across the Mid to Outer Cape and Nantucket between 6 PM and
    midnight. High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Cape and
    Islands where the greatest risk for tree and powerline damage and
    possible power outages exists.

    From the I-95 corridor south and east to the Cape Cod Canal, we`ve
    maintained the Wind Advisory. 925 mb winds here are in the 40 to 50
    kt range between late this afternoon to late this evening. Expecting
    gusts here in the 45-50 mph range, strongest of that range near Cape
    Ann and along the South Shore. Minor wind damage is still envisioned
    here, but it is possible this Advisory may be cancelled earlier than
    its expiration.

    A gradual decrease in gust speeds is expected overnight but blustery
    to strong gusts still likely into the pre-dawn hrs.

    == Rain Changing to Snow and Possible Slippery Travel ==

    Current radar as of this writing shows coverage of rain mainly from
    a Taunton to Marshfield line south and east. Precip will continue to
    pull away into the coastal waters, but not before a transition from
    rain to snow across Cape Cod and the Islands. This transition looks
    to take place between 7 to 9 PM. Today`s guidance has sped up the
    eastward egress of the precipitation axis and thinking for most
    areas snow should taper off between midnight and 2 AM. The exception
    is across the Outer Cape where enough ocean-effect instability and
    favorable trajectories for ocean effect snow showers will continue
    or develop and last into Saturday morning.

    Snow amounts generally range between a coating to a couple inches.
    Given the colder air rushing in and that much of the precipitation
    fell as wetting rains, slippery travel is more likely across Cape
    Cod and the Islands. We do also have some concern for parts of
    Bristol and Plymouth Counties as well.

    == Falling Temperatures and Very Low to Dangerous Wind Chills ==

    Onset of sub-freezing air looks delayed, with mid-20s temperatures
    currently being reported at Pittsfield and Keene. Cold advection
    will cause temperatures to rapidly plummet late this afternoon into
    tonight. Sub-zero wind chills should develop in the Berkshires early
    tonight, and south and east into the I95 corridor by midnight.

    Low temperatures tonight range between 5 above and 5 below zero,
    with mid teens across Cape Cod/Islands. Lowest wind chills in the
    Berkshires, as low as 30 below zero by early Saturday morning; and
    between 15 to 25 below across northern CT and much of RI/MA
    excluding the coastlines. Wind chill headlines remain valid with no
    changes needed.

    If you do have plans outdoors tonight into the overnight, dress
    appropriate for very low to dangerous wind chills as frostbite can
    set in on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes in the Warning
    area in the Berkshires and as little as 30 minutes in the Advisory
    area.

    &&

    .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/…
    Saturday into Saturday Night:

    Still will have a tight NW pressure gradient through at least the
    early afternoon. Despite high pressure and sunny conditions, frigid
    early morning temperatures only warm to highs in the single digits
    to low teens above zero, and the mid to upper teens across southeast
    New England.

    So the main story for Saturday will be the continuation of blustery
    to gusty winds, Arctic cold and very low wind chills, and continued
    ocean effect snow showers intermittently affecting portions of the
    Outer Cape. It looks as though the ocean effect snows should come to
    an end around the early afternoon per high res guidance.

    Even into the early to mid afternoon, wind chills between 5 and 10
    below should continue across most of SNE. Should lose the gustiness
    into early tomorrow evening, but sustained winds around 10 mph into
    the evening could support wind chills between around 5 above to 5-10
    below.

    &&

    .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
    Highlights…

    * Cold and dry Sunday with light winds

    * A strong storm will bring mainly rain in the coastal plain and
    strong to damaging winds along the coast late Sun night into Mon.
    Minor to moderate coastal flooding possible during Mon high tide

    * Main risk for heavy snow will be over the Berkshires and northern
    Worcester Hills

    Sunday…

    High pres builds over New Eng with light winds and sunshine. After a
    very cold start to the morning, temperatures will recover into the
    mid 20s to lower 30s.

    Sunday night into Monday…

    Strong consensus among deterministic and ensemble guidance for a low
    track across interior New Eng. There is a cluster of GEFS members
    that have secondary low track across SE New Eng but primary low
    further W remains in tact. Additionally, mid level low expected to
    track across eastern NY. As a result, high confidence that this
    storm will bring mainly rain to the coastal plain after a brief
    period of snow. Greatest risk of 6+ inches of snow will be confined
    to the Berkshires and possibly into the northern Worcester Hills. As
    a result we issues a winter storm watch for these areas. Perhaps the
    bigger concern is the risk for damaging E winds along the eastern MA
    coast Mon morning along with widespread minor to moderate coastal
    flooding.

    Ptype and Snow Amounts…

    Cold air will be well established Sun evening ahead of the storm. We
    expect precip to begin as snow for much of SNE after midnight Sun
    night, except perhaps along the immediate coast where it may just
    begin as rain or a rain/snow mix as ESE flow off the ocean quickly
    warm the boundary layer. This increasing easterly flow will result
    in rain-snow line advancing west across the region late Sun night
    into Mon morning.

    We do expect a decent front end thump of snow over the interior as
    nose of strong mid level jet increases forcing for ascent, but it
    will be a somewhat limited window due the the advance of low/mid
    level warming northward across SNE. The longest duration of snow
    will be across the Berkshires where upslope from easterly low level
    jet will enhance snowfall. Highest confidence of significant accums
    expected in the Berkshires with potential for 6-10 inches of snow
    before precip tapers off to light rain/snow/drizzle by midday as dry
    slot overspreads region. Snow accums up to 6 inches possible for
    northern Worcester hills but confidence is lower as low level
    warming will occur here quicker. For the rest of the interior west
    of I-95 generally expecting 1-4″ before the changeover to rain.
    Along and SE of I-95 including Boston and Providence not expecting
    anything more than a coating to an inch before getting washed away.

    Damaging wind…

    Potential for damaging winds may be the greater concern as a very
    anomalous easterly low level jet lifts NE along the south coast and
    eastern MA. 925 mb winds 70-80 kts and soundings enough mixing in a
    shallow boundary layer to support a brief period of damaging wind
    gusts to 60-70 mph lifting north along Cape/Islands and the eastern
    MA coast sometime Mon morning to early afternoon. The exact timing
    of these winds still need to be worked out but this will have to be
    monitored closely. These strong winds will likely produce minor to
    moderate coastal flooding which will be discussed below.

    Tuesday through Friday…

    Focus for the long term period was placed on Sun night/Mon storm. We
    followed NBM guidance for the Tue to Fri period. Not looking like
    any significant storms during next week after Mon.

    1. Long Term portion which covers the Sunday / Monday storm was written by Kevin Cadima, who is without a doubt one of their best!

      Also, I know the faithful are feeling faithless when I see so many NAVGEM maps posted….

  44. The pattern looks good the rest of the month as has been discussed….some hope perhaps we can keep it going into February as well…

    Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    4h

    I have found predicting this #winter to be challenging so why should February be any different? GFS has been suggesting a bit more confidently yet another stretched #PolarVortex as we approach February. Would certainly bias #colder East US but cold polar cap heights keep me wary

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1482050072431017991?s=20

    1. Another Judah tweet….

      I think he is off his rocker!

      Judah Cohen
      @judah47
      Jan 13

      “Snowstorms to the left of me!
      Snowstorms to the right!
      Here I am stuck in the middle with rain.
      Yes I’m stuck in the middle with rain,
      And I’m wondering what it is I should do.
      It’s so hard to keep this smile on my face.
      Losing control and running all over the place.”

      2. That’s good ole Judah. But I have a thing for people who are off their rockers a bit anyway, so I can appreciate it, especially the parody. I write a lot of those – most people never hear them. 😉

  45. Non-weather…

    The latest plan for a new arena for the NHL’s Arizona Coyotes in Tempe was rejected, which may very well mean that team will be packing up and moving.

    I think they should relocate to Quebec City and bring back the Nordiques name with the same uniforms they had before the original team moved to Colorado and became the Avalanche! They can use the uniforms they had planned on changing to if they never moved as their 3rd alternate uniform.

  46. Winter storm watch hoisted here. I am on the very southern edge of that warning so not that jazzed up. Honestly I’d rather it just rain versus a flip.

  48. A framingham friend just messages me that there is a halo around the moon. Six years ago Sunday was Macs memorial. Several here celebrated Mac’s life with us. Macs brother flew in from CA six years ago tonight so a halo is a fitting memory. Sorry ….my phone doesn’t do great moon photos but still….

    https://ibb.co/wWwHkfV

      1. This is one of those instances where it doesn’t hold true. These cirrostratus are on the back side of a storm that is departing. But often we see them with high clouds from an advancing system, hence the saying. 🙂

        1. I assume then we will see the “real” halo around the sun late Sunday afternoon then around the moon early Sunday evening. 🙂

          I just hope we don’t see too many subsequent “huggers” in the coming weeks. Conceivably we could still have a bunch of them, even in a so called “cold & stormy” pattern, correct?

          2. That will depend on the timing and make-up of the high cloud shield. I didn’t have the halo up here tonight, but it was quite good to my south!

  50. New Bedford high tide is 7:30am Monday morning.

    Current timing has strongest wind maximizing around that exact time frame, having been strong and building during the previous 6 hrs at low tide.

    If this timing holds, it may maximize surge at high tide on the south coast for locations who reach high tide 7-8 am Monday morning.

  51. Well I guess the data from that northern stream energy has been invested into the models and the result is a track even stronger and further west as we had feared. 00z model runs are brutal with a heavy windswept rainstorm and little to no up front snow across most of SNE. The changeover looks to potentially extend all the way to Canada.

    We had planned to try and make it up to Stratton on Monday to take advantage of the fresh snow but might have to reconsider. The fresh powder is beginning to look like 4” of slop with wind blown sleet and rain on top!

  52. Wind is absolutely ripping here and the temp has plummeted to 11F. I can’t even imagine what it is like on the Cape right now!

  53. Wind was strong and solidly east a while ago. Now the the neighbors flag is going in all directions. Temp at 13 wind into kid 30s

  56. Oh boy. Colbert mentioned the letter and showed a picture of it. How many more rungs are on this ladder? 😉

  57. This storm will blow through and on to the next.

    Don’t forget that on more than a few occasions the models would be predicting a great snow storm only at the last minute have the Nam start shifting west. and we would get a rainstorm. The same can happen in the opposite direction too.

      1. I was wondering regardless of season, what the rough percentage of storms coming off the continent hit the sweet spot on or just around the benchmark. My uneducated guess would say maybe 10% or less. Wxw, TK or JMA would of course maybe get us a ballpark with the variables in mind. Just a macro look.

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