Sunday January 16 2022 Forecast (7:52AM)

116 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 16-20)

Another cold morning across southeastern New England, with low temperatures ranging from around or just below 0 in the outskirts of the WHW forecast area over southwestern NH and parts of central MA to the middle 10s over the ocean-water-modified areas of Cape Cod. The arctic air will start to relax its grip on the region today as high pressure moves overhead, providing bright sunshine for a good part of the day. You’ll notice the advance of some high clouds from the southwest later in the day though, and this is a forerunner of an approaching storm to impact us Monday, pretty much starting right around or shortly after midnight from southwest to northeast. The track of the low pressure area will be west of this region, from PA through NY State and maybe exiting New England via northern VT. The primary low will remain dominant with only a hint at new development just as the occluding frontal system is passing by our region Monday morning. Expect precipitation to start as snow for many areas, but along the coast it will probably begin as a rain/snow mix, or brief snow at most, before going to rain. This rain/snow line will then push northwestward fairly quickly and steadily during the early hours of Monday, maybe with a strip of sleet between the snow and rain. The expected snowfall accumulation hasn’t changed from what I wrote yesterday, and to summarize that, it’s no accumulation on Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Cape Cod east of the canal, a coating to an inch west of the canal through the I-95 corridor, 1-3 inches in the belt that runs along I-495 southwestward to I-290 / I-84 from the NH Seacoast to eastern CT, and 3-6 inches in the higher elevations of Worcester County (especially north), through southwestern NH, before all of these areas change to rain. There may be a few amounts in excess of 6 inches in the highest elevations of northern Worcester County and southwestern NH. The precipitation will cut off in the afternoon as a dry-slot moves in from the south, with only just a few scattered rain showers remaining. Wind will be an issue but most especially in coastal areas where wind gusts of 50+ MPH may occur in advance of the low’s passage, prior to the arrival of the dry slot. As the low lifts into Canada, some colder air coming around the back side may result in scattered snow showers (except rain showers at first Cape Cod) Monday evening. Low pressure moving away through the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure building into the Great Lakes will bring us a cold and blustery but dry day Tuesday. The next low pressure area is destined for a track through the Great Lakes and down the St. Lawrence Valley Wednesday and early Thursday. For our area this means a warm front will pass by early Wednesday with clouds and perhaps a touch of light snow, favoring southern NH and northern MA, a brief spike of somewhat milder air, and a cold front coming through early Thursday with a threat of rain and snow showers, followed by the return of dry and colder air.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Precipitation arriving overnight as rain or brief mix to rain Nantucket and outer Cape Cod, snow elsewhere with accumulation a coating to an inch west of the canal through the I-95 corridor, 1-3 inches in the belt that runs along I-495 southwestward to I-290 / I-84 from the NH Seacoast to eastern CT, and 3-6 inches in the higher elevations of Worcester County (especially north), through southwestern NH with a couple greater-than-6-inch amounts possible in highest elevations. Lows 15-22 evening, rising overnight. Wind NE to SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts Cape Cod / South Coast overnight.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Cloudy with rain through midday, then mostly cloudy with scattered to isolated rain showers but also breaks of sun possible. Highs 38-45 except 45-52 southeastern MA, occurring by late morning before slowly falling during the afternoon. Wind SE 15-30 MPH with higher gusts especially coastal areas morning becoming variable for a brief time, then shifting to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with passing snow flurries possible. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds increase overnight. Lows 12-19. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds early with a chance of a little light snow southern NH and northern MA, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 34-41. Wind SE up to 10 MPH early, then SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with snow showers possible except rain or snow showers closer to the coast especially southern areas. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers early morning, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 21-25)

Temperatures near to below normal. Watch for one or potentially 2 storm threats as we’re in a pattern keeping us vulnerable to winter weather threats.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 26-30)

Temperatures near to below normal and a couple additional opportunities for wintry weather (snow etc.) possible.

116 thoughts on “Sunday January 16 2022 Forecast (7:52AM)”

  4. Patriots piss-poor performance results in a blow out loss. Was the fix on? Or was Buffalo that good ? the pats simply that bad.? Wow! what a bitter disappointment. I thought at the very least, it would have been a competitive game. Not even close. Pathetic. Pats offense sputtered all night and the D was non-existent. When Josh Allen completed that long pass just before the half, the channel was changed and we put a movie on. Wasn’t going to let the pats ruin our Saturday evening.

    End of rant. Back to weather where I may be ranting some more later as the monsoon approaches, Double header disaster unfolding.

    1. Buffalo has gotten that good. No fix. I never believed in that stuff anyway.

      Losses don’t ruin anything for me, personally. My mom and I watched the game from start to finish together, even with some tea & cookies for a treat. 🙂

      I did not expect a win, though I knew they could have pulled it off had things come together just right. They did not. Buffalo is a superior team at the moment.

      Expectations for the Pats from the fan base in general are TOO HIGH. A team with a rookie QB going 10-7 and making the playoffs is pretty good. This was a successful season.

      1. yes, it was a successful season, however, their performance last night was pitiful. Disgraceful. The pats didn’t belong on the same field as the bills.

        1. Last night’s performance was very poor, no doubt. That was the proof right there, when it really counted, how much better a team Buffalo is now.

          That MNF game didn’t mean a thing last night.

          1. Sure didn’t. Buffalo is clearly a Superior team. No doubt about that. They could go all the way. Would love to see a Bills-Bucs Super Bowl.

      2. I am beyond impressed with our young QB, but knew he had the ability to bring us to the playoffs last summer. As for reasons….IMO it’s time to look at BB. I think fans are a bit upset that he’s doing to Jones exactly what he did to Brady. Bb made his typical inane comments post game and then allowed Mac Jones to take the blame. As far as I’m concerned, the question asked for two decades has been answered. Was the dynasty BB and Brady combined or was it one or the other. It was Brady.

    2. Allen is an exceptional QB….maybe as close to a Brady as one gets. And he brought the game he found last week. Sadly, with Jones’ lack of team talent and Allen’s talent combined with team talent, it was predictable.

      1. Allen is awesome and there are a lot of Pats fans (not you, not I) that don’t want to admit that. 😉

  5. 8-10 am tomorrow, 12z HRRR has a 90-100 kt !!!!!! (850mb) jet passing overhead.

    Convective looking elements on simulated radar.

  6. It’s no secret that I’m a fan of all weather, so I’m looking forward to watching the next event unfold. Pretty solid idea now as to how it all goes (as noted above in my discussion.

    I didn’t say much about a potential threat next weekend. As is to be expected, guidance is inconsistent and variable, as myself and my other met friends here have been saying it has been and will continue to be for an indeterminate amount of time to come. You know, like the GFS that brings the storm that the Canadian & Euro give the region next Saturday way out to sea instead and then gives eastern New England a major snow on the 24th while the other 2 models are dry. That kind of thing. It’s about the overall pattern – not model details, once you get beyond day 3. We’ve seen that prove true over, and over, and, over, and over, and over … and over. And it’s not going anywhere soon. So if you’re not used to it by now, get used to it. 😉

    Off to do mom’s errands! I gotta get a nice cold weather walk in around the local pond later too!

  8. Thanks TK.

    Can Logan squeeze out 0.1-0.5” of slush?

    I was pleasantly surprised this morning to see a number of comments here during and after last night’s game. Since I had to be at work today anyway, I turned off the tv and went right to bed at halftime. I heard on the radio this morning that Buffalo scored on every offensive possession except for the kneel down in the 4th quarter. UGH!!!

    I believe Buffalo is destined for the SB and just a matter of who remains from the NFC.

    A Bills – Buccaneers matchup? Interesting. 🙂

    My advice for Mac Jones…he needs to add “RB”to his skill set while he’s young. Mobile quarterbacks are what win games nowadays. Opposing defenses need to get their “backs broken” especially on 3rd downs. Is that the correct term?

    1. he showed he can get out of the pocket if he needs to in the Bills game in the first possession prior to the first interception which by the way was not his fault. What the Patriots needs are receivers that don’t drop balls in the cold weather.

  9. It’s an absolute torch here in Swampscott. Temps have doubled in last 3 hours. I am now at 8 degrees F.

    1. Wow! A budding meteorologist in the making? 😀

      Frankly I didn’t think it was quite cold enough anywhere around SNE to do that “experiment”.

      Nice! 🙂

      1. Hahaha. Thank you. Her sister is fascinated by weather and often follows this blog. This little sprite love science as a whole.

  12. Whatever became of that Pats team that won 7 in a row? They suddenly disappeared into thin air late fall and haven’t been seen since. One of many mysteries that may never be solved. Oh well. 😉

    Actually, if the Pats had lost to Jacksonville, would they have been out of the playoff picture entirely?

    1. They won´t tell, but I´d love to know if Judon was hurt the last month.

      I hope its that, otherwise, did he wear down as the season went on? He is undersized compared to most DE pass-rushers.

  13. Thanks TK.

    I am very interested to see how this event unfolds. I don’t think there will be too many surprises in the winter weather aspect. My numbers would be essentially identical to TK’s.

    But for the wind, I really have no answers. My gut tells me it will generally underperform due to the low level stability. Talk about playing with fire though with how strong that LLJ is. I think that the wind headlines that NWS Boston has out are appropriate. High Wind Warning only at the coast, then a Wind Advisory for the coastal plain.

    For fun, I’ll take a guess that Blue Hill Observatory will have a peak gust between 75-95 mph. But as usual that will be the exception…

    Watch the tidal levels also. Looks like mostly just minor flooding based on the current forecasts, but these events can overperform in that regard…

      1. Yes, too cold/stable at the surface for most of that wind to mix down. If the surface was warmer, or the temperatures aloft colder, it would be a different story, but that’s rarely the case when there’s a southerly wind component. So most of that wind stays “bottled” aloft, but so close you can almost hear it like a jet engine overhead. But add just a little elevation like BHO, and that could make 30+mph worth of difference.

      1. Not exactly. The immediate coast, the way I think of it and the way many NWS offices have their zones divided up, is only areas within about 1-3 miles of the coast. But the “coastal plain” can extend several 10’s of miles inland, depending on where you are, and it doesn’t have a super strict definition. In my mind, the areas under the Wind Advisory in MA pretty much constitute the coastal plain, while the High Wind Warning is just for the coastal strip.

        https://www.weather.gov/box/

  14. I find it interesting that the WWA isn’t all that far west of Boston considering it’s going down in the books as a rain event for all practical purposes.

      1. I think Logan starts as RAIN. Perhaps some flakes in the neighborhoods, but it won’t last long, even if it happens.
        Could start as rain in the neighborhood. Watch the temperature later this evening, especially towards and just
        after midnight. I would NOT be surprised if Logan reaches
        40 prior to precipitation onset. Depends upon how fresh
        that Easterly to ESE wind freshens before the precipitation arrives. Ocean off of Boston is currently 45.5 degrees,, 5.27 degrees above average.

    1. Thanks, TK!
      Happy Sunday!
      Onto the Red Sox (if they can solve their work stoppage issues!)
      Bruins have been playing great hockey as of late.

      It’s hard to read, but I think the 12Z HRRR has a wind gust over Boston at 73 knots which is 84 mph at around 10 am! 62 knots over New Bedford.

      1. The Bruins, wow, fun to watch.

        Dropping Pasta to the 2nd line has changed them from a 1 line team, to at least a 2 line team and I like the pairing of Coyle and DeBrusk on the 3rd line. Speed and power. Maybe they (Coyle and DeBrusk) can help each other get going.

  17. +1º as the morning low here in the west end of the Silver City of Taunton. 17º now.

    I looked over my notes on Taunton cold recently:

    +1 was the lowest minimum in 2021, on January 31 and February 1.
    The last time it was below zero here was February 16, 2016 when it was -3º. That was a three-day stretch of negative lows:
    -11º on Valentine’s Day, -10º on February 15 and -3º on February 16.

    The year prior, during and after the record-breaking snows, we recorded nine, below-zero minimums during February. That was the time that houses were banging and creaking because of the cold!

    It was -20º on January 22, 1984. I don’t remember that.

    Taunton shares the all-time coldest record for Massachusetts at -35º on January 5, 1904. A wing of the Taunton State Hospital caught fire that night.

    Here’s the front page of The Boston Globe from that day:

    https://imgur.com/Wgyrz9C

  18. I see from a Jim Cantore tweet that there well could have been a tornado touchdown in/near Fort Myers, FL.

    Seems many videos to support this.

    My wife and daughter are near Miami and that area has a tornado watch until 3pm.

        2. These wintertime tornadoes are bizarre. Never would have occurred back in the day, not even 20, 30 years ago.

          Our climate has gone completely BONKERS!!!

          1. While I do believe we are seeing some things now that we didn´t see decades ago, I don´t think this is one of them. Its climatologically average to have some severe weather down around the Gulf Coast, even during the heart of winter. And of course, our better technology and everyone with phones captures it easier.

          2. They’ve always been around. Our radars just detect them MUCH better these days.

            And severe weather is NOT uncommon in the South in January anyway. Look back to the 1980s to find some pretty significant tornado outbreaks in the South and Southeast very early in the calendar year. This is even more likely in a La Nina year due to more warmth from the tendency for ridging in the Southeast, even if it’s not dominant.

            It’s really important to keep things in perspective. The severe weather down there is NOT because the climate has gone bonkers. Not at all.

  19. Does anyone have any thoughts on icing on pavement at the onset of rain , given the cold affecting the pavement temperature ???

    1. Won’t be an issue other than wet/slushy snow where there is accumulation before a change to rain.

    1. 26 here in JP and was up to 27. 🙂

      I expect it to be 32 by 10 PM and about 36 or so by Midnight.
      Let’s see how far off I am. 🙂

        1. Well, if that is the case, it should snow for at least an hour or 2. 🙂 I’ll be up till midnight, so I’ll let you know.

      2. I bet you will be on target or very close JPD. Unfortunately this event is a no-brainner rain/wind event. Maybe next weekend?

  22. Taunton pm discussion up …

    ¨bufkit time section shows 60-70 knots down to near 500 ft along the immediate coast¨

    1. 3 to possibly 4 ft storm surge for Providence, 2-3 ft for eastern Mass coastline.

      Flood potential characterized as mostly minor with an occasional pocket of moderate flooding.

  25. A quick update for my sister in law, Sheri. She is still fully sedated with a ventilator and multiple IVs but….They did a bronchoscopy today and there is no pneumonia. And her white blood count has dropped two points two days in a row. Thank you all for your prayers. They are heard. God is Great

  26. Vicki, I am so sorry to hear about your sister-in-law. Hoping her recovery continues smoothly. She’s in my thoughts.

  27. Thank you all. I know your positive thoughts and prayers are working. I just spoke to my brother and her white blood count is now down from 17 to 12.5.

    1. Cool. I overheard my SIL say he is on a roll but no idea what that means. He nearly had last nights Score but was off by one point (Bills)

      1. wow! I mean don’t get me wrong, as I said earlier, I wanted the Pats, but when I picked based on who I honestly thought would win, I went with the Bills. 😉 I seldom sweep anything like this. I didn’t bet any actual $, just for fun. 🙂

        1. To go 5 for 5 is impressive. Despite the slow start, I do expect the Chiefs to prevail. So that would make you 5 for 5.

          I predicted a Cowboys win and was wrong. I’m amazed SF won.

          Did not see the game. Was on a long bike ride. Have to take advantage of the beautiful winter days. Biking, running, anything outdoors is a lot of fun in this weather as long as you dress for it.

        2. I thought he was nuts when he told me score ahead of last night. He’s the one who has me reading stats……because he said it is better to learn it myself 🙄

  29. Mike Tomlin is an underrated coach. I’ve never understood the animus towards him in New England. He gets the most out of his players. And you can tell that they like him.

  30. Wind now SE in Marshfield, 14 mph, gusting to 24.

    Boston Harbor Buoy is SE at 20 knots, gusting to 29 knots.

    Its started over the ocean just east of land.

    A couple hours of that and plenty of maritime air will be ready to overtake the eastern third of the local area pretty quickly as the storm intensifies and some wind develops inland.

  31. I very much like that the 49ers won over the cowboys. My ideal superbowl would be Tians/Bengals out of the AFC and 49ers/Rams out of the NFC.

    1. I wasn’t able to watch the game but am sorry the cowboys did not win. I know they are JJs team so always hope for them. As far as super bowl. Bucs and bills work for me

  32. Snowing now moderately in Coventry CT with a light covering on the unshoveled portion of the deck.

    We are keeping our plans to drive up to Stratton tomorrow am where a foot of new snow is expected. I’m expecting an interesting drive up there, particularly when we get to VT. Excited though about the prospects of a rare powder day! There are likely to be some wind holds on the lifts but hoping those are temporary as the winds should subside late morning when the storm center tracks overheads. I’ll check in at some point tomorrow!

      1. We bought the IKON passes this year which are a bargain all things considered. You only really need to go 5 times to basically break even, and the passes are good at Stratton, Killington, sugarbush, and Sunday River just to name a few. We are also going to be using them in Utah in March.

        Vail resorts have the EPIC pass and have Mount Snow, Okemo, and Stowe. I believe Stratton is owned by Alterra. The prices are jacked pretty much everywhere now though and the Epic and Ikon passes are the only way to go.

  33. Insane snowfall rates in upstate New York tonight. 4.6 inches in 1 hour measured by the NWS office in Buffalo. Talk about a crush job!

  34. Near blizzard conditions in Coventry CT with heavy snow and about an inch accumulation. Wind is ripping now… too bad this can’t last!

  35. Careful when going outside. Although temp is 41 here, sidewalk was very icy due to cold from the past few days,

  36. kind of a fun thing to watch even though the track SUCKED.

    5:30am: 25 and heavy snow, 25F, wind light out of N/NW
    7:30am: 36 and rain, 36F, wind 12 out of E/SE

    quite a quick jump in temps with the wind shift

    5″ of snow on the dot.

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