Monday January 17 2022 Forecast (7:26AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)

A stormy Monday morning for the WHW forecast area, with most areas now in the form of rain, with snow only hanging on in the highest elevations of northern Worcester County through southwestern NH, where several inches have fallen. These areas will also go to rain early this morning before the main batch of precipitation lifts north of the region. We’ve seen some pretty heavy rain along with moderate to strong wind gusts across the region, with strongest wind gusts over 50 MPH along coastal areas, even a few gusts above 60 MPH. We’ve seen a variety of issues from this storm, ranging from some fallen tree limbs and power outages to areas of flooding on roads, in parking lots, and probably some basements. There are also some slick spots where excessively cold ground allowed the rain to freeze on it, so even where temperatures are above freezing there are still some icy spots to watch out for on untreated walkways early today. We’ll also have to watch for some coastal flooding at high tide this morning. Thankfully, most schools and some businesses have a holiday today for MLK Jr. Day, so the morning commute is might lighter than a normal one. Conditions will ease as we get to midday and afternoon as the low pressure area lifts north northeastward and heads for southeastern Canada after passing west of here, but it will still be windy at times as it passes by to our north tonight and some colder air makes a return back to the region. While the main precipitation will be gone, we can still see some rain and snow showers as the colder air comes back in. Expect dry weather but with chilly air and a gusty breeze for Tuesday between the departing low and approaching high pressure. This high will scoot across the region Tuesday night and offshore Wednesday as the next low pressure area, a much weaker one, heads out of the Great Lakes and into the St. Lawrence Valley. Its warm front will pass by early in the day, its cold front following by early Thursday, with a bit of unsettled weather, but Wednesday itself will be a fairly nice day with a milder feel to the air. The cold air will filter back in on Thursday and a secondary front will deliver even colder air for Friday, at which time we will be dry with the exception of some Cape Cod snow showers due to a northerly wind flow over relatively warm ocean water.

TODAY (MLK JR DAY): Cloudy with rain through midday (except snow to rain higher elevations northern Worcester County and southwestern NH), then mostly cloudy with scattered to isolated rain showers but also breaks of sun possible. Highs 38-45 except 45-52 southeastern MA, occurring by late morning before slowly falling during the afternoon. Wind SE 15-30 MPH with higher gusts especially coastal areas morning becoming variable for a brief time, then shifting to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with passing snow flurries possible. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds increase overnight. Lows 12-19. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds early with a chance of a little light snow southern NH and northern MA, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 36-43. Wind SE up to 10 MPH early, then SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with snow showers possible except rain or snow showers closer to the coast especially southern areas early. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers early morning, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-17. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sunshine except clouds and snow showers possible over Cape Cod. Highs 18-25. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)

Temperatures are expected to run mostly below normal during this period. We’ll have to watch passing low pressure areas over the January 22-23 weekend and probably another one later in the period for potential wintry precipitation threats.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)

Temperatures near to below normal and a couple additional opportunities for wintry weather (snow etc.) possible as we head toward the end of the first month of 2022.

51 thoughts on “Monday January 17 2022 Forecast (7:26AM)”

  3. January 22, 24, 26 are 3 target dates for potential snow. Please do not read this as “TK is forecasting snowstorms 3 times in 6 days.” These are just the watch dates.

    Odds at this point favor more a graze or miss for the first one early in the weekend, and it’s far too soon to speculate on anything beyond that.

    This is just a reflection of the “vulnerable period” that we are in. Being vulnerable does not automatically mean “snowstorm for me”. Some areas got snow from this one, mostly to the west obviously. The track was too far west for a snowstorm in eastern areas.

    As always, I’ll be following things and refining the outlook as needed and following the rules that make for non-confusing forecasting along the way.

    This will avoid things like having to explain to the readers why that mega blizzard that was posted for January 20 sometime last week is in fact going to be a cold front passing by with a few rain and snow showers. 😉 There’s a reason for doing it this way. It works… 🙂

  4. Temperature at 42 in Swampscott. Little difficult to read thermometer. Strong gusts but don’t have a read on it. Heavier rain earlier; lighter now; expect heavier rain again given what I see on radar.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Was up to 34 here at midnight. 41 now.

    Not impressed by the wind at this time.

    Onto the next one

  7. Thanks TK.

    Very, very windy here at work. Glad I made it as I took a taxi. Wouldn’t think of taking the T on a morning like this. I’ll do that on the way home though. Before I left work to check on my basement…water of course. 😉

    As long as the water stays away from the heating system, I’ll be ok. Rain “should” end by noontime, correct?

  8. Thank you, TK!

    Looked as if we had an inch or two of snow before the rain. Now we have slush. Roads don’t appear to have been touched in our neighborhood

    1. I stand corrected. I checked the cameras. The roads were treated around 3:15 am. Snow was still mixing in around 6:30

  9. Thank you, TK.

    Quite windy in Back Bay. Not enough to topple the John Hancock building, though.

    While I don’t like a sou’easter. The rain was a comforting sound in the wee hours of the morning. I’m an extremely light sleeper – get up between 6 and 10 times a night – and notice pretty much anything that happens at night. As my son says, “Dad, you’re a human alarm system.”

    1. I may have missed any stronger winds as I sleep through just about anything. Takes a lot to wake me up at night.

      I awoke about 7:45 and believe me the winds were nothing special. Not sure even enough to knock over a house of cards.

      Onto the next one… Whenever that is and whatever form it takes.

  11. Once again, I have a question for those who treat the roads. First, I need to say that I respect what each and every one of you does to keep us safe. Second, I’m hearing lots of accidents in town and folks are saying roads have not been treated. I know the last part is not accurate as I said above. We have at least an inch of slush on the roads. Is there a way to treat that?

  12. Thanks TK.

    By and large, I’d say this system has been well-behaved. You always have to expect some surprises with highly dynamic storms like this, but most of the aspects seem to have worked out quite close to the forecast. Winter precip transitions worked out well, wind threat mainly confined to the coast and even there, solid but not especially impressive with gusts mainly under 60 mph. Credit the models also, they did very well from inside days 4-5.

    As TK said, there are several potential precipitation events in the next 7-14 days, with snow likely to be favored over rain for the most part. In fact, there’s even a “bonus” opportunity Wednesday night into Thursday before we get towards the potential bigger ticket items. It’s a busy pattern.

  13. By the North Conway webcam, they have gotten a lot of snow.

    Good for the white mountains. Slopes should be in good shape.

  16. I would be curious if Boston even received a quick coating before the changeover. Currently rain/snow line into southeast NH and southwest Maine.

    1. Here, too. Well, I’m not far from where you are.

      I’m about to do my run. Was waiting for the rain to end.

  19. Blue sky and sun showing up a bit here. I postponed my food trip today until tomorrow but now am second guessing that decision.

  20. It was slushy early this morning in Westwood. We must have received a small accumulation before the changeover. There looks to be a little ripple of energy that may form along a cold front that if it were to come close enough, it could deliver a small snow event sometime late Wednesday. I remember TK spoke to the fact that snow threats could appear with little notice.

  24. i hope the Thursday possibility happens but i hope the weekend storm does not happen Saturday. I have v flight out of Boston 830am to NYC 5 hour lay over in NYC with a flight going to St. Thomas at 1220pm. I very much hope it doesn’t impact my flight.

  25. I know it’s far out but the Euro and GFS are showing a bitter cold day next Thursday 1/27 with highs in the single digits and lows below 0 that morning.

  27. On this Monday evening I decided to dig deep into my vinyl collection and pick out one of my absolute favorites: Band of Gypsies (Live). Jimi Hendrix in top form (December 31, 1969 – Filmore East, New York City), with his (then) newly formed Band of Gypsies. An unbelievably talented group of R&B and soul musicians, including Buddy Miles. Better than the Jimi Hendrix Experience band, in my humble opinion.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYm3dSXKloA

    1. Nice. My son only listens to vinyls and is creating a nice collection. I wish I had my old records. I suspect my parents jettisoned them in a move. I think I’ve said my son has my old KLH stereo. And it still sounds amazing

  30. Monday’s weather reminded me of the rainstorms of the late 1970s. Short-lived, big wind & rain, snow inland, sun following the low’s passage.

    More and more about the recent weather is reminding me of the 70s and 80s. 🙂

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