Wednesday January 19 2021 Forecast (7:45AM)

66 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 19-23)

A warm front moves through this morning, setting up a breezy but relatively mild day across our region. This warm front extends from low pressure moving north of New England, and its cold front will then cross the region during the early hours of Thursday with a few rain and snow showers. But just as the front is moving off the South Coast, a wave of low pressure will move up along it, resulting in some overrunning moisture which will meet the colder air to bring a brief snowfall to the region Thursday morning. This will move out by later in the day and then we’re dry and cold, but windy, Thursday night and Friday, although ocean effect snow showers are likely over Cape Cod late Thursday night into Friday as a cold northerly wind travels over relatively warm ocean water. The weekend also looks cold, and we’ll continue to watch a storm system set to pass southeast of the region on Saturday. Guidance has developed more agreement that this system will just graze southeastern areas or be a near-miss, and that remains my leaning as well, but it still has to be watched. High pressure builds in with dry weather Sunday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind variable under 10 MPH early, then SW 5-15 MPH with gusts to or a little over 20 MPH possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers then snow showers overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Cloudy through midday with a period of snow likely – accumulation 1 to 3 inches except under 1 inch southern NH and northern MA as well as outer Cape Cod and the Islands. Increasing sun thereafter. Highs 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH early then NW.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Snow showers developing over Cape Cod. Lows 12-17. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sunshine except clouds and snow showers possible over Cape Cod. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 10-17. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow, favoring far southeastern areas. Highs 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 24-28)

The overall pattern remains colder than normal. There will be low pressure systems to watch for potential impact, about 3 during this period, basically every other day. None of these are guaranteed hits – we just remain in a vulnerable pattern during this time.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

Temperatures near to below normal and a couple additional opportunities for wintry weather.

66 thoughts on “Wednesday January 19 2021 Forecast (7:45AM)”

  5. My dad down in Chapel Hill NC is preparing for 3-5 inches from what they are saying down there. Rare for sure and will cause a mess for days. They might end up with more snow this year.

    Tomorrow’s system will be something at least. Coldest stretch of winter coming up after today and what we get for it, nada. Keep on tracking, something will pop.

    2. I shared here last weekend that northern parts of SC had four inches while we had slush and rain. Curious, isn’t it

    3. It happens once in a while.

      Many examples of weather like this going back through the decades.

  8. The 12Z NAMS (0-1 inch) have backed off considerably on the snow for tomorrow Morning. Oh well, even a sneaky little snowfall can get screwed up in this pattern. 🙂

    This is getting laughable. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  10. Thanks TK. I’m pretty much in agreement all around…

    I think 1-3 is a good call for tomorrow in most areas. Minor event obviously but potentially impactful for morning travel due to falling temperatures.

    Weekend is a miss, Euro over-amplified the southern stream in the medium range. Nothing new there.

    Below normal temperatures continue the next 10-14 days, and there will be additional snow chances, despite the large number of chances that have failed to produce so far. As TK mentioned, multiple chances between about the 25th and 30th.

    This pattern does have a looming expiration though. It should be very close to the start of next month that we bring back the western trough and Southeast ridge and bring a return to December’s pattern.

  14. Good morning, and thanks, TK!

    Vicki, how is your sister-in-law? Know of my prayers and love!

    Today is the 20th anniversary of the infamous “Tuck Rule”/Snow Bowl II game between the Pats and the Raiders. It was the last game at the old Foxboro Stadium. In my opinion, it was the game that changed the Patriots’ fortunes and, dare I say, New England’s sports fortunes forever!

    What a moving ceremony to honor Willie O’Ree last night! What a beautiful man! The B’s could have used Willie!!! 🙂

    1. I remember writing about snow events there in the 1990s. Doesn’t happen all that often but once in a while….

    1. What a great memory of a spectacular game. It was hands down Mac’s favorite game. We looked high and low to find him a video of the game back when they were not at all easy to find. Somewhere imhave the VHS tape our son finally found.

      Thank you for the memory and thank you to Tom Brady and the Pats for two decades we would not have dreamed possible on this night 21 years ago.

  19. Thanks TK.

    Eric tends to agree about the upcoming February pattern:

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    1h

    Going to have to cram in some significant winter during the home stretch of January. Polar vortex increasing to near-record strength and looks to finally couple with the troposphere +AO

    Portends a pattern reversal and milder February in the east

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1483815422654832652?s=20

    The irony of this though is that the second image he posted shows the AO peaking in the next two weeks and then becoming less positive as we start February. The GFS even has it dipping negative by Feb 1??

    1. John Bagioni
      @FaxAlertWeather
      1h

      Just me, but I would be wary of going full-blown torch with February until we see some added assist with the MJO phase. Even with a strong PV, would not be hard to stay close to normal overall, unless the Pacific joins the warm party…

      1. Eric Fisher
        @ericfisher
        1h

        A -PNA February can definitely still slide some snow our way, for sure. Very much doubt it will be a harsh temperature month here, though

  20. Thanks, TK. I really appreciate your clarity!

    Vicki, I’ve also been remembering your sister-in-law. Do you have any recent updates?

    1. You are so kind. Thank you for asking. She is taking positive Baby steps. Her white blood count is down to 14/15 from 17. The CT didn’t show pockets of infection anywhere but in the area they were aware of. They are draining her lung to hopefully be able to remove the ventilator (she lost one lung when she had cancer several years ago). Your positive thoughts and prayers are making a huge difference.

  22. Vicki, I continue to think of your sister in law. Difficult situation. Glad there is some incremental improvement.

  26. Everything on track for tomorrow’s mini event. The only thing I will do is slightly tweak the 1-3 to 1/2 to 2 1/2 for accumulations with emphasis on the lower side of that. Not really anything more than a tiny adjustment when you consider we’re talking about hundreths of an inch of melted precipitation.

      1. Probably not during the event (other than where we get some slush). But if any wet untreated roads / surfaces exist by sunset / evening, they will freeze up quickly.

  27. Hey JPD, do you remember this from 7 years ago? 😉

    Woods Hill Weather
    January 9, 2015 at 4:37 PM

    Ok! Forecast worked out well today, timing, snow amounts, and the clearing, which for some reason the NWS did not go for. They kept it mostly cloudy into tonight. I’ve never been too sure where they come up with their sky condition forecasts because they are not good at all the majority of the time.

    Cold night! Cold weekend but not as cold as the first Arctic shot. This is not a surprise as the second shot was known to be less potent. But we will still feel the chill through the weekend. Cold Pats game! But we also know it could be much worse.

    I think next week will be “milder” but not overly warm. Current feeling is that we’ll have to watch for lots of cloudiness but not so much storminess. That said, there will be a shot at something late Monday, but it looks minor and biased toward the South Coast. But 3 days off so will monitor.

    I also don’t see anything after that materializing into a snowstorm threat for SNE through the rest of next week and carrying forward into the week after that. Pattern change around January 24/25, then we start talking about snow threats for 6 weeks.

    Old Salty
    January 9, 2015 at 4:40 PM

    Now You’re talking!!!

    And your forecast was spot on for today.

  28. Almost 7:30 in the morning and guess what is falling from the sky with 36 degrees. Why RAIN of course. We even get screwed out of a mini event. Go figure. I suspect it will flip over to snow soon, but how much moisture will be left???

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