Thursday January 20 2022 Forecast (7:40AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 20-24)

A cold front has passed by our region and a wave of low pressure moving up along it, passing just to our southeast, will cause a period of rain to snow this morning with some minor snow accumulation especially near and south of I-90 / I-84 before we dry out. But it will be turning colder as the day goes on and any untreated wet or slushy surfaces will become icy with time. Much colder air moves in tonight through Friday, when some ocean-effect snow showers may occur over Cape Cod due to a northerly wind blowing that very cold air over relatively warm water. Some of these ocean effect snow showers may start to impact the South Shore of MA Friday night and Saturday as we get a temporary turning of the wind a little more northeasterly as low pressure passes southeast of New England during that time. High pressure will build in with cold and dry weather Sunday holding through Monday as well as another low passes far to the south of our area.

TODAY: Cloudy with rain changing to snow this morning, ending by midday. Snow accumulation from a coating to 1 inch with locally up to 2 inches possible, mostly near and south of I-90 / I-84. Clearing northwest to southeast later in the day. Highs 33-38 except 38-43 South Coast early, then gradually falling temperatures during the day. Wind NE to NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except clouds and snow showers developing Cape Cod. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunshine except clouds and snow showers possible over Cape Cod. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Possible snow showers Cape Cod and MA South Shore. Lows 10-17. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers MA South Shore and Cape Cod with a chance of a period of steady snow on the islands and outer Cape Cod. Highs 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22 Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 28-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 25-29)

The overall pattern remains colder than normal. We’ll have to watch low pressure to the south for potential impact, but nothing clear-cut at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

Temperatures near to below normal and a couple additional opportunities for wintry weather.

82 thoughts on “Thursday January 20 2022 Forecast (7:40AM)”

  4. I’ll take some ocean effect snow showers Friday night and Saturday.

    Doesn’t cancel school and maybe we can whiten up the ground.

    2. Looks like rain here as well. If there is any mixing, it is so
      damn light, I can’t see it.

      Onto Cleveland!

  17. Thanks TK.

    Beautiful outside with a light snow falling and about an inch accumulation so far here in Coventry with a temp of 29. Kids have a remote learning snow day. Cant believe they are home for an inch of snow but the side roads are snow covered and it is more the timing of the precip onset and end.

  19. Thanks TK.

    Today’s event, not that it ever looked big, is looking like an under-performer. Just not quite enough amplification of the surface wave developing along this front to keep precipitation around longer, as well as temperatures not falling as fast as modeled. This surprises me a little; conventional wisdom is that anafrontal snow underperforms, which is true, but this didn’t look like a typical anafront setup to me. Sometimes these frontal waves running parallel to the mid-level thickness lines can actually overperform. I believe the October snow event in 2020 was like that, but definitely had a more amplified wave.

    Onto the next one, though looks like we may be cold and dry for awhile…

    1. Hmmm, say until the 29th-30th?????

      Wish the Euro was on board, but both the GFS and the CMC
      have a fairly powerful system then. We shall see IF it is still
      there on this morning’s runs

  20. Good blog by Eric Fisher on what he sees for the rest of the winter….

    https://boston.cbslocal.com/2022/01/19/second-half-of-winter-forecast-mild-february/

    Plenty of cold and a couple snow chances the next two weeks, potentially a larger opportunity towards the end of the month as the models have been toying with. The Feb. pattern really does not look good as has been discussed here….few of the indices we want to see for snow/cold appear to be lining up.

    He does not address March though in his blog…should we flip the pattern back in February, how long will it last?

  22. Today is the 44th anniversary of the “First” Blizzard of 1978 (January 19-21). Boston got socked with 21.4″ of snow which stands as the city’s 9th biggest snowstorm.

    1. I don’t remember this individual storm, but I remember not too long after this and before the blizzard of 78, we must have had a mild rainstorm. As a result, the roof of the school I attended collapsed and we also lost a week of school for that too ! We must have hardly been in school that year from late January through the most of February.

    2. Yes, I remember.
      That was a good one, but with not nearly as much wind.
      I believe Boston received 21 inches or close to it. It may be
      I measured 21 inches.

    3. First of all, that storm was only a 12-hour event, mainly on January 20, ending just after midnight on January 21. Bob Ryan (not the writer from the Globe) was a meteorologist on WCVB at that time. The morning after that storm, after seeing Boston get 21.4″ in just 12 hours, Bob Ryan declared on-air “if you live here for another 50 years, you’ll probably never see another storm like that in your lifetime”. Two weeks later….

    1. Yes, but 3 runs in succession have shown the system.
      It would be something to have it keep it going for 9 or 10 days.
      Highly unlikely, but TK has been eying this period for something.

      1. LOL …… I thought a 950s mb storm, regardless of precip type might do it.

        Of course, that kind of pressure, we might lose 5 ft of shoreline …… details ……. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  27. 1-20-1978…

    I remember that very well.

    That month was remarkable…

    The series of storms we had that January was probably more impressive than the one we had in February that everybody talks about….. I suppose that is just a matter of opinion and also depends on your perspective. That storm was remarkable too.

    1. There was one storm where there was pretty sharp dividing lines between snow/sleet/freezing rain.

      Here in JP we had snow and a crap load of sleet for a total accumulation of 6 or 7 inches. Was that ever difficult to shovel!
      Not too far South and SW, there was no sleet, but rather freezing rain and not too far North and West it was all snow. That was an interesting storm.

      1. Probably January 11 1978.

        I had 5+ snow then almost an inch sleet then lots of rain.

        Two days later I had a snowstorm of about a foot on Friday 1-13-78.

  31. That time frame the GFS is showing for that low could be a start of a pattern change and when there is a pattern change happening that can be a good time for storms…

      1. oh and I am leaving tomorrow so mother nature will let everything hit once I am gone . That GFS run puts Billerica right on the edge of the jackpot area 😛

  32. What’s going to be happening next Tuesday-Wednesday? The tv mets have it as the usual mixed mess with borderline temps. Let me guess, coastal hugger?

    1. We can’t tell yet. It’s just a window to watch. Details won’t be possible until we get to about 3 days away from that time frame.

  33. So some of you may recall I talked about a 282 hour forecast map used for hype fodder on a weather page somewhere on social media from a GFS run on January 8, for today (January 20)… This link takes you to that forecast map for 06z today from that run. Compare this image to today’s 06z surface map and then tell me how great a forecast this was by the GFS. 😉

    https://scontent-bos3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/271662490_4794374513989650_4440946528252639344_n.jpg?_nc_cat=101&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=ulUwl8WmrGkAX8Wow7s&tn=CtySQxFApxfVFP-A&_nc_ht=scontent-bos3-1.xx&oh=00_AT_6KkfmBl63anaCwptNENnk_oanSK7WKNSHWSHI-4eJLw&oe=61EF10DF

    1. With those flurries and sprinkles today, this was my mind´s visualization of the surface map. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  35. As usual, the ocean has taken snow away from Marshfield this winter, but looks like it will give back a little tomorrow.

  36. Wow, this is pretty good for ocean effect.

    1/2 mile visibility and moderate snow.

    Fluffiest snow I’ve seen in Marshfield.

    Roads covered.

      1. The 11Z Hrrr hasn’t a clue about the snow down your way!!

        Btw, I see Marshfoeld wind is NW. 850 mb winds also NNW. So what is producing this snow?? Speed convergence? Outer band from storm to SE? Some sort of other meso scale convergence?

      2. Thanks !

        Some neat things ….. the cloud deck must be thin, because I can somewhat see the moon and now a tint of blue on occasion, but its still coming down pretty good.

        With the front windshield warmed, the snow falling is melting to essentially a light drizzle/mist. So, in snow form, its impressive but when melted, its a light mist really.

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