Friday January 21 2022 Forecast (7:39AM)

137 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 21-25)

Cold and mainly dry weather will be the story for the next few days. Ocean-effect snow showers will be one exception from the MA South Shore to Cape Cod today, where some minor snowfall accumulations will occur, and a few more of these may occur tonight into Saturday as well as a storm passes to the south of our area, keeping the wind’s trajectory just onshore enough. High pressure will be the main player in our weather through through Monday, supplying the cold air. High pressure shifts offshore Tuesday with moderating temperatures, and a frontal boundary approaches from the west with a chance of some precipitation – and by then it may be mild enough to talk about rain showers.

TODAY: Clouds and snow showers MA South Shore through Cape Cod with a coating to as much of 3 inches of accumulation, except a band of greater than 3 inches likely over a narrow area. More sunshine elsewhere. Highs 18-25. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Possible snow showers Cape Cod and MA South Shore. Lows 0-8 north and west of Boston, 8-15 Boston through Cape Cod. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers MA South Shore and Cape Cod early. Highs 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH early, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22 Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 17-24. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of mix/rain showers. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 26-30)

The overall pattern remains colder than normal. We’ll have to watch low pressure to the south for potential impact early and again later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

Temperatures near to below normal and a couple additional opportunities for wintry weather.

137 thoughts on “Friday January 21 2022 Forecast (7:39AM)”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Not too much cloudiness here.
    Wishing Snow SE of here would move up this way. Not looking likely.

  5. Logan recorded a “Trace” of snow yesterday but I was at home all morning and I didn’t see one flake mixed in. It was ALL RAIN!!!

    1. throwing this out there ……. so, my dad was telling me how in Pembroke, it was drizzly, but when he went south to Plymouth, it was snowing. I told him I thought that might have happened because the precip was a little heavier to the south yesterday.

      So perhaps, the smallest patch of steadier precip passed over Logan yesterday and for that brief period, it fell as snow ??????

      2. Explanation just as good as any other Tom, but this is why Logan shouldn’t represent the city and its neighborhoods. JPD didn’t mention any snow either yesterday.

        2. I tend to agree re Logan representation, but I’m not sure anywhere could have been representative. We had the snrain….mostly very fine snow…a good portion of the morning but absolutely no accumulation. Then we had sun. I was surprised when my SIL told me it had snowed all day where he was on the cape. But again, no accumulation

    1. Yikes both sons in law on the cape today and utility trucks are now know for their ability to drive in snow

  10. It has been pounding snow the last 30-45 minutes.

    Piling up quickly !!!!

    Best ocean effect in 20+ years here.

  11. Thanks, TK.

    This extended winter period can be described as follows: Dry and cold, unless it’s precipitating, in which case it’ll warm up and there will be (mostly) rain.

  12. I don’t think I’m exaggerating to say visibility is around 1/4 mile and in a sheltered area, there has to be 2-3 inches of snow.

    But, real fluffy. It gets near 32F Sunday and this will sublimate to a half an inch. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. From What I see on radar, I believe it.

      I take it, you are not in school today? Or are students testing
      and you can sneak peak at your phone?

        1. I remember teaching order of operations years ago. We used the “Please Excuse My Dear Aunt Sally” mnemonic.

  14. Bear in mind that it’s so fluffy, but I think we have about 4 inches.

    Not the usual ocean effect scenario.

    Normally, it’s more showery in nature, a pulse then a back off with occasional breaks in the clouds, then another pulse.

    Not this time. Continuous moderate to heavy snow. But visibility starting to increase a bit and intensity easing.

      1. Radar shows that. Looks like a real lull. I wonder if it will
        pick up again later? We shall see.

        Either way, you got a bonus today. 🙂

      1. I can only read the start. I gave up on several media sources a bit ago. It seems to answer a question I’ve had on my mind and asked about here recently. If models are inadequate, why are they so heavily relied on?

        1. I can send it to you if you’d like. It’s not an article about giving up on models- more saying that as more people see those models we need to keep educating and reminding people that it’s a tool, not an inevitability.

          1. I had the sense that was the gist. It is what leaves me curious. Thank you for offering to send. I think I can open once I get on my computer later today.

  17. Too bad Boston won’t get in on the “ocean effect” snow. I find it interesting that phenomenon is actually difficult to achieve even though the city (and Logan especially) is right on the water as well.

    Off the top of my head, I can’t recall the last time Boston has had any ocean effect flurries let alone accumulating snow.

    1. It’s easy to understand if you take into account the most common wind direction when the coldest air is moving over the region. O.E.S. events, based on geography, occur south of Boston more often than Boston northward (with the occasional exception of Cape Ann – it’s snowing moderately in Rockport and part of Gloucester right now).

      1. They also get it fairly often in advance of coastal storms as the winds become easterly. Everyone just assumes it is part of the storm, when it really isn’t.

    1. This is an interesting time frame.

      It is around the time of a pattern change.

      Just beyond this time frame, the first Pacific storm hits after a dry spell, so I’m guessing we are transitioning to a negative PNA

      Eric F has been tweeting about watching for a storm during the pattern change.

    1. The only one that missed it was the GFS, but I’m sure part of that is the resolution. All the other models had it. They may have whiffed on the intensity, but that’s the be expected with microscale things like this, but they all had the snow.

    1. Lightly. It had completely wound down to flurries. A little steadier now.

      Just peaked at the radar. Our town is at the old exit 12.

      If I had to guess, the moderate to heavy snow is from exit 11 to exit 4 or 5, just south of Plymouth and of course all points east to the water.

      1. These are all the old exit numbers. I don’t know the new ones yet, but they represent the mileage to the Sagamore Bridge, where rt 3 ends and rt 6 begins.

  22. Wilmington NC is 32F with light freezing rain.

    I get that the interior Carolinas can get frozen precip a lot, but Wilmington, wow !!!!!!!

  23. Thanks, TK.
    Thinking of you, Tom, and Marshfield all morning.

    What’s the quick weather update from the ‘Field?

          1. I am just enjoying watching it. As Philip said, we have bright blue sky with some low clouds ringing the horizon

    2. HA HA HA HA HA

      Watch the sucker or something close to it verify.
      Would not surprise me in least bit. 🙂 🙂

  28. Probably an inch or just under in pembroke & definitely not seeing what Tom is seeing just down the road . According to ch 5 at noontime this is going to pickup again tonight so we shall see .

    1. You seem disappointed SSK but that’s still an inch more than the rest of us n/w from the South Shore. 😉

  29. Pictures of the ocean-effect snow showers on the South Shore and Cape Cod got me thinking about the times I spent as a child on the Outer Cape in the 1970s. And now, looking back – as I’m prone to do, I’m about quite nostalgic about everything – I’m rereading Gladys Taber’s My Own Cape Cod. The book was written in 1971 so I’m reminded of the way it was. Of course, one thing that hasn’t changed much is the weather.

    In another book, Country Chronicle, Taber describes winter in rural Connecticut (50 plus years ago) so well:

    “There is a strangeness about a winter morning when the temperature is zero or below. Day begins with a pale glimmer along the horizon beyond the lacings of dark branches. …

    Quite literally there is no sound. And therefore the motionless air seems to sing – a melody from the beginning of time. … Winter has a whole orchestra of her own, and the sounds of winter are chiefly percussion notes – the crack of ice, the plop of snowfall from the roof, the crash as a tree gives up a branch under the weight of snow. The harsh cries of bluejays and the call of an owl at night and occasionally the scream of a bobcat in the upper woods all announce it is January. …

    We live in a world of noise and confusion, and a good many scientists agree that man suffers from it. We are bombarded with noise from jet planes to riveting machines, from subways to sirens. And I think, as I feel the healing of the winter-morning stillness, that we all desperately need some quietude in our lives. I notice how we scream at parties and shout at meetings and what a tendency the young have to toss bombs and smash windows, and I wonder whether part of this isn’t a reaction to frayed nerves.

    Winter means work; there is no arguing around that. Nature does not make it easy. Snow shoveling, plowing the road, thawing the car out, getting in firewood, cleaning the ashes from the hearth, filling the bird feeders – and always and forever mopping up melted snow, thawing frozen pipes, feeding stray barn cats – all of this would be alien to a tropical inhabitant. But mankind, whatever else one may say, has the ability to adapt and manage, whatever the climate involves.”

  30. Thanks TK.

    When it comes to ocean effect snow on the models, you have to be very careful. As SAK mentioned above, global models like the GFS generally don’t have the resolution to capture it. And even hi res models that do have the resolution may give the impression that they are under-forecasting, even though they really aren’t. Ocean effect snow, like lake effect, tends to be very dry and fluffy. Snow ratios may be 20:1-60:1. In other words, a very innocuous looking QPF output can produce much more snow than you’d otherwise think. So if you’re looking at a 10:1 snow map, you may see little or nothing show up, but in reality you may need to multiply the numbers several times over.

    I find that the ARW is typically the best with it, and definitely has been in this case. Sometimes it can get too aggressive in less favorable setups though, so you have to use caution.

    1. 100% agree.

      In our science it is so important to know the shortcomings of our tools, lest we play the fools. 😉

  32. I sure would appreciate it if I could ask for continued positive thoughts and prayers.

    My sister-in-law, Sheri, is fighting very hard right now. Her family has to make some decisions. The most immediate has the potential to have a positive outcome or to have a negative outcome.

    Her husband , sister, children and I sure appreciate your support more than I can say . Thank you!

  33. Link-https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022012112&fh=42

  34. So, a new intense band seemed to form and now, in far eastern Marshfield, we are out of it on the east side.

    Went from heavy snow to shut off over a quarter mile, really neat !
    I have breaks in the overcast here, if I look west, its dark and lower visibility.

    3-5 inches on the ground in my neighborhood.

    1. It’s very Buffalo-like. Don’t get it nearly as often as they do because of how frequently the wind is in the “right” directly there versus here. Most of the time those snow showers are forming just offshore and aiming out over open water because of a northwest wind, but today was different.

  35. Vicki, I’m sorry to hear about your sister-in-law’s setback. My thoughts are with her and her family.

  38. Thank you all very much. You are all special. She one hell of a woman. I cannot recall if I’ve said here. She is a cancer survivor but did lose a lung. She then had bacterial meningitis and fought hard to work through that. More recently she had a set back with shoulder surgery in good part because of the changes in her body from chemo and survived that. And she never one stopped smiling.

  39. Snow machine is taking a little break but should fire up again later tonight into Saturday and by the time it’s done I think some of the “jackpot” amounts may be as much as 8 to 10 inches in Plymouth County. There will never be 8 to 10 inches on the ground even in the area that gets the most snow though, because what fell today will have either blown away or sublimated for the most part, and then the process will repeat overnight and tomorrow. Gloucester / Rockport may be a little more involved in the next round.

    1. Sheri is no doubt an absolutely amazing woman. I will be keeping her and the rest of your family in my thoughts.

  47. This ocean effect snow is making it pretty far inland. Heavy coating here in Sharon and still snowing.

  49. Euro Canadian rain maker is now an out to sea fish storm. This model inconsistency is truly laughable. Who knows what it will do over the next week to 10 days.

  50. Sun was shining through a few minutes ago with only a few flakes falling. Now sun more or less hidden ans snow picking up
    a tiny bit.

    1. We had some rather sparse flakes here under what I would unscientifically describe as “partly blue-ish sky”. I found it very enjoyable. Then we got more cloud cover and the flakes stopped. Go figure.

  51. I don´t think I saw it on any other model, but the 00z GFS kind of threw some light snow towards us on Wednesday, I think ? Something on the northern edge of an otherwise OTS system.

    I´m wondering if its 12z op run has it ??

    1. 6Z, does not. However, the position of the high and the cold
      temperatures kind of hints at perhaps some O.E.S. Let’s see what the 12z runs show.

  53. After going 6 for 6 in last week’s NFL game predictions, how likely is it I go 4 for 4 this week? Not likely.

    I will start trying by saying both road teams win today.

    2. Hmmm 49ers aren’t beating GB tonight :). I see
      Cincinnati giving the Titans a good fight for sure. A lot depends on how healthy Henry is.

      1. You’re probably right about SF, but this is why they PLAY the games. 🙂

        Nobody thought the Cowboys would lose last week, except me apparently. 😉

  54. the snow has picked up the past 45 min – 1 hr

    Not as heavy as yesterday, but certainly steady and visibility varying btwn .75 and perhaps 1.5 miles.

      1. I noticed the harbor buoy wind switched from 040 earlier to 340 degrees, so this coastal front or convergence line has moved a bit southeast again. Thats when Marshfield gets its best ocean effect, when that boundary is just east of me. Earlier this morning, it was west of me and we had a few flurries.

  55. 12z NAM at 84 hrs for Tues night looks like the 00z GFS did.

    I think another post cold front wave of precip behind it.

    Light rain or light rain to snow

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