Saturday January 22 2022 Forecast (11:10AM)

43 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 22-26)

The ocean-effect snow machine tends to work in relatively short bursts in our area, as it’s not too often we have the conditions perfect to have it persist for all that long, but this time is a little different. Since early Friday, this has been going on, starting over Cape Cod and the MA South Shore, with a brief tapering break, then a return to activity that then shifted more to the north to include Boston and Cape Ann as well, and heading southwestward into southern portions of central MA at times as well. I’ve even seen occasional flakes here in Woburn which is about 10 to 12 miles northwest of Boston, being right on the edge of the northernmost band at times. Snowfall accumulations with events like this are often very difficult to get exactly right, due to the sometimes narrow heavier bands that can shift back and forth, or remain in place, depending on the exact location of little convergence zones and overall wind direction at any given time. These snowfalls often present in very high snow to water ratios, as previously mentioned by a fellow meteorologist on the blog yesterday (20:1 ratios can be very common and even sometimes they can go much higher than that). It doesn’t take much moisture to pile up a few inches of pure feather fluff snow. This is very easy to clean, but it can make the roads slippery if there is partial melting and refreezing due to previous road treatment but also very cold air in place, or a quick covering of snow is then packed down by vehicular traffic. Some may wonder why an onshore wind off an ocean that is quite mild (40+ degrees) would create such fluffy snow. Well the quick answer is that the air heading from eastern Canada and Maine into and across those waters was very cold, in some cases below zero, so yes, it does modify, but maybe only to the teens and 20s by the time it’s crossed the water enroute to the shore, picking up enough moisture to deposit the fluff in the still very cold air, even after it’s been modified. I mentioned that this set up is less common to see here because our “average” weather does not create this set up of northeast winds for very long periods of time to create the ocean effect snow, in contrast to a place like Buffalo, where they average colder than we do anyway and also tend to see more persistent winds from the west, giving them more opportunity for lake effect events. Of course if you take the entire Great Lakes into account, you’re talking about a huge sample size compared to our very small area of coast, so it pretty much becomes an irrelevant comparison at that point – but you get the idea by keeping it in the proper perspective. 🙂 So how about the rest of the weather for this weekend and early next week? Well, we are being missed by a storm to the south today, as became clear would likely happen during the past few days. And we’ll have more cold but generally dry weather for Sunday and Monday as weak high pressure dominates our weather, although some upper level energy passing through will bring some varying amounts of cloudiness during Sunday before we end up with more sun Monday. When we get to Tuesday and Wednesday, it gets a little more complex. We’re going to be in a set-up that guidance can mess up royally even just a couple days out. Tuesday a wave of low pressure passes to our north, a warm front passing by in the morning with no more than clouds and maybe some spotty snowfall. We “warm up” in a relative sense that day, pushing 40 or so, and then a cold front swings by later. It would likely be mild enough for a rain shower with this but I’m not even sure there will be enough moisture to produce anything, and then we chill-down behind that front Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is going to be more energy back to our southwest so we have to watch for a wave of low pressure to form, just in case it’s a little more of something than guidance currently indicates. If this is the case, Wednesday could end up messy with overrunning precipitation, probably of the frozen variety, or it could all end up happening too far to the south and we stay mainly dry and chilly. This will be the puzzle I’ll be trying to solve over the next few days. For now, for forecast purposes, I’ll lean dry but add the chance of some snow/mix for southern areas.

TODAY: Lots of clouds northeastern through south central MA southward with occasional snow showers, but more persistent snow shower bands especially near and south of Boston where up to a few additional inches of snow are possible. More sun to the northwest. Highs 17-24, but 25-30 Cape Cod / Islands. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 8-15. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32 Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-17 Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 20-27. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow early. Maybe a rain shower late. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow southern areas. Highs 31-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 27-31)

The overall pattern remains colder than normal. Watching for two potential low pressure impacts around January 28-29 and again about January 30-31. Too soon for any speculation on details.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

The beginning of a pattern change. Trending milder, some unsettled weather during the transition.

43 thoughts on “Saturday January 22 2022 Forecast (11:10AM)”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Great discussion as always !

    I find some of these projected southern stream Gulf of Mexico lows interested.

    If they verify, they are loaded with tropical moisture and if the northern stream can set up to make one of them turn north ………

    1. We don’t often have to deal with many of those in a La Nina, but we had one such on January 17.

      Something wants to get involved in about a week, and that’s been the source of the GFS totally losing its marbles on what to do. Every run is different, even the ones with the same general idea present such varying details. As we always say, the take-away from something like that this far out is just to know we remain vulnerable, and maybe with the idea that something from the southern stream may be involved with a potentially more moisture-laden system as we head toward month’s end. The good meteorologists will present it this way, rather than posting the run with the 30-40 inch snowfall totals (yes there was a GFS run with 30+ snowfall on it) and jumping aboard the runaway hype train. 😉

  4. Thank you, TK

    What a lovely early morning with sun trying to shine through a silver sky and snow now falling but floating. My granddaughter said it looked as if we were all in a snow globe and someone just shook it.

    Ocean effect made it to South Sutton

    https://imgur.com/a/uMZJH5t

  5. Today was a PERFECT example of Sublimation.
    This morning’s snow left a nice coating of snow with
    everything very white. Now, it is ALL GONE!
    It certainly did NOT melt as it is still only 24 here.
    It simply sublimated and a nice example of a solid going
    directly to a gas.

    Sublimation
    The transition of a substance from the solid phase directly to the vapor phase, or vice versa, without passing through an intermediate liquid phase. Thus an ice crystal or icicle sublimes under low relative humidity at temperatures below 0°C. The process is analogous to evaporation of a liquid.

  7. Thank you, TK.

    Glorious stretch of weather, for the most part. The way January should be, in my view. Would be nice to have some more snow. But, at least the Charles river is frozen, even in Boston near my apartment. It’s a beautiful sight, and one we did not get to see last year when it only half froze over.

    On days like these I can run endlessly; a marathon if I had to. The air is as clean as can be, which allows my lungs to really expand as I breathe deeply (something that’s not possible in summer). After running, not tired, blood pressure is normal, pulse, too. So very different in June through August.

    1. Unlikely. Sometimes our best opportunities come during pattern transitions. Even when we go back to the more December-like pattern we’re not putting the lock on anything in terms of winter weather threats. We are pretty sure what the overall regime will be, but the specific are still impossible to determine.

    2. If I had to hazard a guess I’d say we actually get more snow in February than we did in January (note, I’m not expecting much the rest of this month), but that February is much milder on the whole. I know it sounds strange. But, timing is everything. This month, we’ve only once had the coincidental timing of high pressure in the right spot and a low getting close enough to us as it passes to our southeast. In February, despite a prevailing southeast ridge of high pressure, we may get the timing right a couple of times as the relatively few incursions of cold air coincide with (redevelopment) of systems right off the coast. I’ve seen this sort of thing happen in past winters.

      1. It’s happened many times, which is why the assumption of “Southeast ridge = little or no snow” is a bad one to make. It can contribute to a less-snowy pattern, but it can also do the opposite. There are too many other factors in play to let just one be your reason for assuming the weather will be a certain way. 🙂

  12. One issue the current version of the GFS seems to have is insane over intensifying of surface lows in the 144 to 204 hour range. It’s doing exactly that on today’s 18z run.

    2. Yep, very fun to watch. Not taking that away from anybody. But when I’m making a forecast, I still have to apply science, and my applied science continues to tell me that the GFS remains a p.o.g. for a tool right now. 😉 I’m really hoping they can iron out whatever was messed up on the last upgrade with the next one…

    1. I love him. He’s been the target of a lot of hate from probably the same so-called fans that keep hating on Tuukka Rask. Whatever. I’m a real fan. 🙂

  16. Tannehill’s performance was really brutal. Also, several really questionable coaching decisions by Vrabel. Happy for Cincinnati. Have not had a winner there in a while.

    Now, it’s hoping that SF knock off GB (not going to happen, I know).

    Tomorrow I’m picking the Rams and Bills. We shall see.

  21. TK believes in miracles, and now I do, too. Al Michaels’ voice is ringing in my head “do you believe in miracles?” What an epic contest, in the snow and cold. Love football games in the elements.

    And Aaron Rodgers proved once again why he is NOT a winner. A great and talented quarterback, but not a person who handles big moments. He’s also a jerk, in his personal life and on the football field (or at least towards people around him on the football field). Why people compare AR to TB I will never understand. One person – TB – almost always wins, especially in big moments and is a special teammate and a good person in real life. The other person – AR – almost always loses in big moments and is not a special teammate or a good person.

  22. TK, I’d like your stock tips, too. You are obviously great at weather forecasting, predicting outcomes of football playoff games. I need a stock analyst at this point.

    1. A colleague and I were just talking about how un-trustable the GFS in that range right now. It will eventually drop that idea.

  25. And it looks different at 6z. System is still there but offshore. Key factor is that a system is there and we need to keep tracking.

  26. New weather post…

    I re-evaluated both short term and long term. I was kind of on the wrong path in the shorter term thinking that we’d have a little more influence from high pressure, but not quite the case, hence the addition of a lot of cloudiness for today and a few snow showers for tonight, and then I beefed up the expectation (a little bit, don’t get excited) for Monday night / Tuesday morning as that disturbance has a bit more moisture to work with.

    Not much I could change beyond the 5 day period of the forecast. The general ideas remain the same and as you know by now, I can’t make any solid guesses on the late week threat, if we even have one to guess on by then. 😉

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