Sunday January 23 2022 Forecast (8:15AM)

88 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 23-27)

While high pressure tries to control the weather here in New England it will have issues keeping a couple of small intruders out – those intruders being a couple of rather weak disturbances coming along via the Great Lakes. The first one will bring cloudiness today and perhaps some snow showers this evening. After a sunnier interlude during the day Monday, the next one will approach Monday night into Tuesday, with a shield of snow ahead of its warm front bringing a small accumulation to at least parts of the region. While we get briefly into the warm sector as this low travels just north of here, Tuesday ends up as our mildest day of this forecast period, because the cold front will then swing quickly through with colder air returning Tuesday night, and a second front will whistle across the region early Wednesday bringing in another shot of much colder air, a gusty wind making that feel even sharper. High pressure brings fair weather Thursday with a slightly temperature moderation but still sub-normal.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, partial sun possible. Highs 31-38. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Patchy clouds, more sun likely. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds return. A coating to 1 inch of snow possible overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of snow early morning. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow shower. Highs 30-37 morning, falling into the 20s afternoon. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-8 except 8-15 Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 0.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

Temperatures are expected to remain generally below normal for this period. We remain vulnerable to potential storm systems as well with the first one to watch between later January 28 and January 29. Guidance, as expected, has been inconsistent with this and offers no help in trying to make many early guesses on the impact from this system, so that will happen later.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Pattern change starts to take place with a milder trend trying to develop as we see more upper level high pressure becoming established over the southeastern US, but with a lot of cold air in Canada this still leaves our region vulnerable to unsettled weather with temperature fluctuations.

88 thoughts on “Sunday January 23 2022 Forecast (8:15AM)”

      1. Completely possible. And if I had to pick who I wanted to win that game, it’d be Buffalo. But as for who I think is going to – KC.

      4. With the Pats out of the picture in the AFC for the foreseeable future (yes, I said it), this is Allen’s time to take advantage. He needs to establish himself as one of the greats and to do that means do damage in the playoffs and make the SB. If he can get past the Chiefs I believe he will do just that.

        1. Great comment. You know I believe Allen is definitely one of the greats. If he brings the same game today as last two weeks, it should be great to watch.

  2. Thanks TK.

    Looking at Jacob’s futurecast radar regarding the “potential” weekend event, it’s offshore having to rely on drifting westward towards us. Is this a “Norlun” of sort?

    2. He just showed one model that showed that on one run. We won’t be able to know how much that system impacts us, if at all, let alone details like that, until starting about 3 days ahead of it. But yes the model he showed did show something like that – I saw that too.

  4. Good morning and thank you, TK.

    What am I likely to run into, driving along the west side of 128 early Tuesday morning? It sounds questionable….

    1. We may actually tune in.

      I too would love to see a Brady/Allen Super Bowl. Think there would be any viewers????

    2. Sweet! That would mean he would face SF and Garapolo. That might not be a gimme though even at home. An epic matchup perhaps?

  6. Good morning and thank you TK

    The system for next weekend has been modeled all over the place, but currently modeled to be off shore with possibly some impact, depending on model. Long way to go on this one.

    It is looking more and more like there will be a storm Strength and track to be determined.

    I’d like to see a biggie this Winter. Could this be the one? ???

  7. Thanks, TK!
    Happy Sunday, everyone!

    We are giving semester final exams this week. We are halfway through the school year this week. Can you believe that???

    Prayers continue for your sister-in-law, Vicki.

    Divisional playoff weekend hardly ever disappoints! Looking forward to two more great games today!!!

    Stay healthy and happy, everyone!

    2. The good part is there is no wrong in hoping for what we would like to see happen. In this case I will hope you do not get what you want. I will never wish for a man who gave us so much to do anything but win.

      2. with some of Brady’s antics since he has left the Patriots and seeing what I am seeing with Bill makes me feel alot of the crap coming out lately about Bill and Brady is Brady trying to keep his image clean when its not. I respect everything that Brady did with the Patriots but I have certainly lesson my respect for him. Brady the player is great, Brady the person I question.
        I also would like to see Jimmy G get a ring and i would not mind seeing Stafford getting one after dealing with the Lions all those years.
        I also don’t want to keep hearing Brady was more responsible for the Patriots sucess when it was both of them, but those seniments will only increase if Brady makes it all the way.

    1. As you have educated and reminded us, models 7 days out are highly reliable and mostly flawless! 🙂

      2. Part of this is a lot of them are told to do it (news directors, they look at the net and the apps and see what’s “looming”).

        I’ve no issue whatsoever talking about a potential event on mainstream media but it’s IMPORTANT to clearly put it into perspective and avoid doing things like posting model runs, ESPECIALLY snowfall forecasts so far in advance. Those numbers stay with people.

      3. I’d be very surprised if they were not using words such as potential or this may well change. I know from Pete and others, as Brian said, that they are directed from corporate to “be the first.” Exact words

        As far as mentioning the possibility, I’d prefer they do

  14. ECMWF is way out on the late-week thing. It’s interesting because as JMA and others have noted, this model tends to over-amp the pattern, but it’s not doing that here.

    Loooong way to go on this one. I’ll be shifting my main focus to the disturbances coming by tonight and later tomorrow night / early Tuesday so I can refine those forecasts. I’ll keep an eye on the stuff beyond that – back burner stuff for now.

    LA strikes first, up 3-0.

  15. What’s your best guess this far in advance? You leaning one way or another?

    I would love to see Bengals or the Bills. Both organizations have been through a lot over their history. Would love to see the Rams and Stafford make it. Stafford did so much for the Lions org and hung in there with them for so many years. I am done with seeing Brady and Mahomes this year.

    1. As far as football goes, I kind of have a thing for the Bills and/or the Bengals for the same reasons you stated, but when it comes down to it, I’m just looking to see some good games.

      As far as late week’s threat: I have no leaning at this time. Any model solution we see can be up to several hundred miles off. By the time we get there, the timing might be different by as much as 24 hours either way and the track of any system may be vastly different from any given model run. They’re not helping us this far out beyond identifying a potential threat of unsettled weather. I’ll probably have this approach tomorrow too, then a little more focused each day after that…

      2. I bet places like the Rockies and Midwest, snowfall maps can be posted and presented to the tv viewers several days in advance with little if any doubt. Here in the northeast too many parts to the puzzle.

        1. It’s the exact same in the Midwest, and it’s probably even more complex in the Rockies. New England is not the hardest place to forecast in the country, despite popular belief.

          Denver area, places like the Black Hills of SD, and the High Plains of Texas are the first 3 that come to mind that present extremely difficult forecasting scenarios. New England is no picnic, but these places are more difficult, on average, in my opinion.

          1. Try the Pacific Northwest, where you have the Cascades to really complicate things. What’s the snow level? How much precipitation makes it over the Cascades to the areas east of there. How much cold air makes it west of the Cascades into places like Seattle and Portland.

            I forecast for a radio station in the Spokane, WA/Couer d’Alene, ID region. They have been stuck in a pattern of dense fog for days on end, with little improvement expected over the next several days. It’s no picnic trying to forecast there.

            Another place where snowfall is a lot more difficult – downwind of the Great Lakes. For lake-effect snow, the wind direction is of the utmost importance. The wind direction is 240? Buffalo gets 1-3 feet. It becomes 260 instead? Buffalo gets a few flakes and the southern suburbs get 1-3 feet, while the northern suburbs have sunshine.

            1. Thankfully my PNW forecasts for “the big guys” didn’t have to have all the specifics that doing a regular media forecast would require. That would drive me nuts. And yes those snow squall gradients in the Lakes are nuts. They make what happened along our South Shore yesterday look like a piece of cake.

  16. Hi Vicki , I have been awol. I never really was involved in the weather , but my thoughts and prayers are with your sister in law! All the best

  17. Sorry, I will NEVER root for the Bills. They are in the same division and rivals with the Pats. That would be like rooting for the Yankees when the Red Sox are out. It just won’t happen. Ever.

    Oh, and matt – Jimmy G already has 2 rings.

    1. I would like Jimmy G to get a ring playing not because of the Patriots.
      In my order. When the playoffs started this was my cheering on order.
      Patriots, Bengals, 49ers, Rams, Bills, Cardinals, Steelers, Bucs, , Raiders, Eagles Chiefs, Cowboys
      So one of my two NFC teams are going to be in the Superbowl with Bengals or Bills, Chiefs.

      1. PS I would like the Bengals to win it all as they have never won the big game and only made it to two of them.
        49ers because of Jimmy G and getting a second shot at getting a ring of his own.
        Bills same as Bengals but same division which is why the 9ers are ahead of them.
        Rams would of been higher if the played nice today but they didn’t. I am happy that Brady did not go on so all the Brady meant more to the Patriots then Bill talk can stop. If he went back to the superbowl, would of been very loud music. I don’t want the chiefs so the whole Andy Reid is better than Bill talk can be shut down.

  19. Well I finally got a game wrong, but what are the chances that 3 straight games end on a gwfg by the visiting team with the clock going to zero?

    1. My SIL did Also so you are in good company.

      I will not hope for the rams. A helmet to helmet against 12 and 12 gets the penalty. And a helmet to helmet on top of the goal line and some ridiculous rule gives the team with the penalty the ball. And then the rams player throwing his helmet as he got onto the sidelines when the bucs were closing in.

        1. Agree. I have a video of my SIL calling the play for the last TD before they lined up. Except he thought it would be gronk to receive and not Blate

  20. My mother’s story aired on NBC Nightly News after the game today. It will be available online later. 🙂

    1. Just saw the story, TK! We had the news DVRed after the game.

      Even though I know the story and know what’s coming, I keep getting emotional and choked up when I hear it again.

      It was extremely well done by NBC!

  21. We’re seeing a changing of the guard at the QB position. Young QBs are shining in these playoffs and it’s great to see.

    1. When they have a team to support them. Sadly, the one QB in the games I watched, didn’t. (I didn’t watch yesterday)

    1. Yes, truly high drama. Incredible. Give each QB a few seconds and they’re bound to score.

      Also, astoundingly bad coverage. it can’t get worse on both sides than this. Yes, they’re great QBs, but to have guys that open blows my mind. Over and over again.

  24. I’m surprised that this was the hardest loss for me. I’m not a bills fan but just feel as if they’d earned this one.

    1. I agree. I feel terribly for Allen and the Bills. Their defense (coordinator) let them down big time, especially the two plays with 13 seconds left in regulation. Way too soft in coverage. No strategy. It was as if they were defending against a touchdown.

      1. GFS has big impact, not as much but still powerful. Support for the Ops from their respective ensembles as well. The only saving grace for a historic storm should it pan out would be lack of blocking. Still with that set up 1-2 feet would be doable. Let’s see what consistency comes about today and tomorrow before we start getting into specific numbers.

    1. Euro, cmc and gfs really amplify the system for fri-sat. We really need to watch this one as we are getting closer to event time. Hmm, could we be using the B word?????? Depends on track and amplification. It has my attention!!

  27. New weather post…

    Not very excited about models yet – that event threat is beyond day 3. Tuning knobs start to get turned about Wednesday, much more so by Thursday.

Comments are closed.