Tuesday January 25 2022 Forecast (7:36AM)

311 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 25-29)

The last bits of light snow are exciting Cape Ann and a mix of snow/rain are departing via Cape Cod as we have now seen a warm front pass by. A general coating to 1 inch of snow fell during the night ahead of the front. Today we get a relatively mild day before a cold front comes through later and returns the cold of mid winter to our region for the rest of this week. High pressure will bring fair weather for midweek, but later in the week things start to change. A disturbances approaches Friday with an increase in clouds and perhaps a few snow showers, and as this happens low pressure will be taking place off the US Southeast Coast. This system will have pretty deep roots to the south including Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture, and all signs point to a rapidly moving and intensifying low pressure system making a run up along and likely off the US East Coast. This would likely bring a significant snow/wind event to our region Friday night into Saturday, the amount of both determined by the exact storm track.

TODAY: Cloudy start, then increasing sun. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 13-20. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-8 except 8-15 Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 0.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow likely. Lows 15-22. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Overcast with snow likely morning, tapering off during the afternoon. Highs 22-29. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

Fair, cold end to January. Unsettled weather to start February then fair and colder at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

Milder trend, additional unsettled weather at times.

311 thoughts on “Tuesday January 25 2022 Forecast (7:36AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    I still don’t think this upcoming system
    will be an inside run er/coastal hugger.
    I think solid hit/side-swipe/off shore are the players I know TK says inside is still a player. We shall see.

    Did not not not like the 6z gfs which was basically a side-swipe. Outlier or the real deal???

    1. Right in the expected range. I noticed on a page I admin that some people were “surprised” about last night’s event. Want to know why? Never mind. Guess why….

  4. Matt Noyes showed a projected snowfall amount of 6-12” for Boston-south.

    He also mentioned that we are coming into an historically stormy period.

    1. Well, it’s kind of the climate peak of the snow season I guess. Our bigger storms are spread out all over the place and people tend to shift around what they consider the stormiest period. For example, “Todd’s Rule: Major snowstorm most likely Feb 6-12.” Well, this one will fall outside that period (assuming it’s major).

      1. Not to mention MLK weekends. Actually, this time it did work out, just the “wrong” form of precip. 😉

        1. Take any 3 day period in January and it’s highly likely at least one will be impacted by low pressure.

          MLK Jr Weekend, specifically, has nothing to do with it at all. The dates of that change every year.

  5. CPC 8-14 day outlook, above normal temps but on the “low” end of their scale. Perhaps there is still room for snow?

  9. Yeah this isn’t coming inside. Split the difference and you get an 18-24 inch storm. Eastern New England special as of now. Mixing likely towards the south coast and cape per usual.

    06z euro held serve and ensembles looks good. Euro has been pretty awful this winter so hard to buy into this.

    2. I am still leery of the GFS, however, yesterday’s 12Z was good, then 18Z was more off shore, then 0Z was good again, only
      to have the 6Z off shore again. Is this a sparse data problem or
      a real trend????

        1. Each model seems to be displaying its worst performances in certain time ranges but then even inside that it changes based on which jet stream(s) is/are involved…. And that’s only on the larger scale never mind getting in closer to a system in having to figure out all the little details.

      2. The GFS has been bad for years now…It never seems to be consistent. With that said I will jump on the GFS train anytime it shows a big snowstorm. 🙂

      3. What do we do? Throw a dart?

        We are getting closer and closer.
        What model dysfunction will we see today?????

  11. Given the known recent margin for error, a low pressure track over or west of Boston is still not entirely off the table although it is probably the least likely scenario. I will be prepared to rule this out as early as tonight’s 00z suite, not before that.

    1. Extremely common. We see them many days per year here. That extreme a display of them is less common and dependent on very specific conditions.

      1. VERY creepy, scary looking to say the least, like something out of a horror movie. Are they indicators of a storm (tornado) coming?

      2. As a cloud watcher, I can safely say I have never seen these but would sure love to. And you are right, Philip. They are creepy

        1. That type of scud is very rarely seen here, where as ordinary scud is much more frequently seen. The conditions needed rarely occur in our area.

          I love these clouds – ominous and completely harmless.

  16. 12Z NAM is grabbing that vort in the SW needed to fuel the storm like the EURO is showing. It’s not holding it back as much as the GFS. Interesting few days for sue.

  17. These days I seem to have 2 strikes against me: I am not a snow fan and I don’t understand how to read the various models. I realize we are still a ways away from the event but is it possible to target a range of snow amounts given info or is talk of 2 plus feet as likely as 6-10 inches? I don’t want to pin people down early but would like to know if possible what’s realistic. Thanks.

    1. Inside 60 preferably 48 hours before onset is the best time to start throwing out numbers to the public, from an accuracy standpoint.

      1. Thanks. Guess I wondered if the outrageous numbers are contingent on everything clicking and if that is something that happens very rarely.

  18. Getting back to the time of year for a big storm. I have snowfall data for Lowell back to 1929. There have been 116 storms that dropped 10″ or more in Lowell in that time frame. Here’s the breakdown by month:

    November 3
    December 26
    January 27
    February 38
    March 23
    April 3

    There have been 15 storms that dropped 18″ or more on the city. There is no specific time to expect a “big one” as you’ll see below:

    31.3″ January 26-28, 2015
    30.0″ February 6-7, 1978
    24.0″ March 12, 1888
    24.0″ February 8-9, 2013
    22.8″ March 5-6, 2001
    22.3″ March 3-4, 1960
    22.0″ March 13-15, 2018
    20.1″ January 12, 2011
    20.0″ December 1-3, 2019
    19.0″ January 22-23, 2005
    18.5″ March 31-April 1, 1997
    18.0″ January 24, 1935
    18.0″ January 7-8, 1953
    18.0″ December 22-23, 1961
    18.0″ March 4-5, 1967

    1. Great info!
      And you’re exactly right. Big ones can occur any time it’s cold enough to support snow.

    2. The totals by month add up to 120 because there are 4 storms that occurred during the last day of 1 month and first day of the next, so it was counted in both months.

  20. I have similar data for Boston. Back when TK and I worked with the state climatologist, we put together lists of the biggest snowstorms in some of the cities across the Northeast, Over the years, I have maintained and expanded that file. Boston has also had 15 storms with 18″ or more:

    27.6″ February 17-18, 2003
    27.1″ February 6-7, 1978
    26.3″ February 24-27, 1969
    25.9″ February 8-9, 2013
    25.4″ March 31-April 1, 1997
    24.6″ January 26-28, 2015
    23.8″ February 7-10, 2015
    22.5″ January 22-23, 2005
    21.4″ January 20-21, 1978
    19.8″ March 3-5, 1960
    19.4″ February 16-17, 1958
    18.7″ February 8-10, 1994
    18.2″ December 26-27, 2010
    18.2″ December 20-22, 1975

    1. Very impressive that Boston (25.4”) outpaced Lowell (18.5”) for March 31-April 1, 1997.

      That probably rarely occurs.

      1. Depends on the setup.
        It’s somewhat analogous to a situation where a storm passes offshore and Cape Cod gets dumped on and Boston gets one inch.

  24. Hadi for you guys in eastern SNE. For me just a moderate snowfall. This reminds me looking at the 12z GFS from the January 2005 blizzard with more the further east you go less the further west you go.

  26. COWABUNGA and HOLY CRAP BATMAN!!!

    If only, but we ALL know that the GFS will NOT NOT NOT
    verify!!!!

    But the potential of this being a really big storm is certainly
    on the table. Likely Not 39 inches, but 12-18 is in the cards for sure with perhaps a bit more than that.

    CMS next and then UKMET and EURO. Taking a look at ICON now. 🙂

      1. Would you please do that. I’m surprised yours does not. The WP blog I ran for the man I worked with several years ago allowed all sorts of emojis. I can do a few from the iPad or could

        ⛈⛅️☁️⛄️❄️☃️☁️☔️☂️

        ✨⚡️☄️⭐️

  27. That GFS looks insane. Feeling a bit left out here in my neck of the woods in CT, but I’ll be fascinated watching this play out regardless of where the bullseye ends up.

      1. It is Baloney if you ask me. It has NEVER EVER been correct as the numbers are ALWAYS too low. ALWAYS. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it. 🙂

  30. Is anyone else noticing that Pivotal Weather website is very slow! Annoyingly so? While the usual slow one, Tropical Tidbits is flying.

  31. CMC is coming in gold too. Crush job. My biggest concern really isn’t a cutter, it’s losing this too east. Wish this was Thursday and not Tuesday. A lot can go wrong.

  33. I look forward to the NAM showing 72inches…We have a long way to go guys. Excited to seeing something fun coming hopefully.

    1. Cape and Islands could get some serious wind.
      AND if the EURO winds that Mark posted pan out, we’re all
      in trouble. We don’t need that.
      Snow is one thing, but don’t need wind damage and power outages on top of the snow and cold. Not for that at all.

  41. At 500 mb, GFS, UKMet and GDPS all closing off low in the vicinity of Cape Cod.

    These type of multi-feet, waterlogged snow storms with at least 1 moderate flooding high tide usually takes south shore coastal towns multiple days to recover from.

    Well, the ultimate question is will this projection hold through Friday?

    1. We shall see. All indications are that some form of a powerful storm will exist. Just how powerful and the exact track.

  42. My brother and I and our families would like to thank you all for your prayers and positive thoughts. My sister in law’s procedure was postponed yesterday. My brother just called and said the procedure this morning went well. There was some worry Sheri might not survive it. Your thoughts and prayers were certainly heard. She has a long road ahead still but this is a wonderful start.

  43. Well I know everybody is keeping things in the proper perspective. Have fun with the model runs and I will be back later to comment with more thoughts.

    I have a busy 6 hours ahead of me so I might not be able to check in here too often. No promises but I may attempt some preliminary numbers in the comments section starting after tomorrow’s 12z data. Thursday morning’s update will have my first full accumulation forecast.

    P.S. My mother’s story was not complete for last night’s Inside Edition. Tonight’s episode is preempted by channel 7 because of something related to something like politics or something but I’m sure if it’s on tonight’s show there will be a way for us to get it. More about that later too…

    Cheers!

    1. Simply the rate of deepening but do they ever love terms that us mets have been using behind the scenes for decades. 😉

    1. I think coastal flooding will be an issue but I am still having trouble figuring when the storm will arrive and depart relative to the tides.

  47. I always loved Barry’s bombogenesis!!

    Did he coin that term or just use it?

    bombogenesis
    /ˌbämbōˈjenəsis/
    nounMETEOROLOGY
    a phenomenon or process in which there is rapid and sustained falling of barometric pressure in the center of a low-pressure system, indicative of its strengthening into a powerful storm.
    “the storm will intensify rapidly, so quickly, in fact, that it will likely undergo bombogenesis”
    Definitions from Oxford Languages

  48. It will be interesting if Boston ends with the jackpot amount. The Presidents Day storm in 2003 (27.5”) was the last one I can recall, and even that amount is STILL suspect to me, after these many years now.

    1. I remember Todd Gross at the time stating that the “average” for the area was closer to 19 inches.

      1. Considering that it was 2.8″ higher than the next highest total, which was Blue Hill, yes, that 27.5″total, it is extremely suspect.

  49. I sure as heck hope the EURO is wrong.

    We don’t need a 500 mb closed low capturing and looping that powerful a storm in that spot.

  50. I know the EURO upgrades have worsened its performance.

    I’m worried though.

    The model has a history of nailing storms that form off the east coast which become historical monsters.

    1. From what I know Philip, and someone correct me if I’m wrong, but when storms get really intense they can often “close off” from the flow of the atmosphere and stall on their own

  54. 12z Euro a beast for sure….it does close off and does a cyclonic loop south of New England, eventually bottoming out at 967mb…

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2022012512&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Worst case scenario for wind and coastal flooding. And for snow, widespread 18-24″+ amounts with ratios.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2022012512&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  55. If the models are correct,

    we’ll flood the coast during the storm, then ……

    about a week later, we’ll flood everything else with a sudden, rainy warmup.

  58. Thanks for the links Mark
    I don’t think anyone will say this winter is a dud if this storm pans out.

  59. Thanks TK.

    I’m more and more doubtful this storm ends up out to sea. You may still see some out to sea runs through the 0z’s tonight, and that would be normal for this range, but I think we’re already starting to get some better consistency on a hit. I still think the bigger risk for eastern SNE is a track too far west. We’ve seen many times when you get these very high amplitude patterns that storm tracks can correct west up to the last minute.

    I think much of SNE is probably safe and in good shape, but I think that’s the failure mode to keep an eye on. Areas around NYC and the coastal mid-Atlantic are definitely not out of consideration for being the jackpot.

    And in terms of the totals, they could certainly be big. Obviously skeptical of some of the really astronomical output, that could only be achieved via a classic cyclonic loop, which I’m not sure we get. But the idea of a widespread 12″+ with areas of 18″+ is very much on the table.

    2. Agree 100%. Mt biggest concern is too close for the immediate coast. Praying that doesn’t happen snow wise.

  60. A Common theme that the models may be starting to pick up is that there could be two intense bands of heavy snow – one positioned over central mass and another parked over southeast mass. Areas in between could see “lighter” snows relatively speaking but still with significant accumulations. We’ve seen this set up before. It’ll be interesting to see if this comes to fruition assuming we get a BM or near BM storm.

  61. Too soon for snow bands as far as I am concerned as the isn’t locked in. Maybe by Thursday we would have a better sense.

    I actually like the Canadian today. Splits the difference between Euro and GFS. Confines the heaviest snow to eastern New England with that track.

    1. The ICON looks to right on target to me.
      18Z GFS will be starting in about an hour, but I am more
      interested in the 0Z runs.

      I am watching closely, but trying very hard to not get too
      excited about this just yet. I’ve seen too many great looking
      storms get ruined for us.

      If you look closely, the EURO now introduces MIx to far SE
      sections of MA.

      Something to watch.

      1. Always discussed ahead of time and rarely makes it up here this time of year and doubtful based on the track currently projected.

        1. Based on current track, however, as WxWatcher has warned, with these highly amplified systems, a track
          a little more West is possible. If that were to happen,
          the mix/rain line could approach the boston area.
          I sure HOPE NOT!, but something to watch.

    2. Speaking of bands.

      Does anyone have a link to that model that showed banding.
      IT was on this site a few years ago and I have long lost the link
      and the bookmark I had for it.

      It was so cool. We may need it.

  63. So much for the pattern flip to start February? Perhaps more fun times ahead after this weekend….

    Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    6h

    Was the focus of this week’s blog but latest #PolarVortex (PV) animation suggestive of yet another stretched PV in early February that favors #cold/#snow in eastern N America possibly followed by a bigger PV disruption as troposphere becomes more favorable to exciting wave energy

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1485979331260260352?s=20

  64. Something to keep in mind, we could get several inches of over running snow prior to the storms arrival. Not sure how the models handle that in terms of their output.

    1. I think the snow maps we are looking at certainly include
      that snow, however, do they accurately account for it?
      Could start snowing as early as 6-7 PM Friday evening.

      1. That is one thing the models are not very consistent on. Some start the snow as early as 7PM Friday night while others hold it off until daybreak Saturday.

    2. Could be almost akin to the “PRE” events we often get in advance of tropical systems that move up the coast. Cool stuff.

      Loads of potential with this one and we haven’t even discussed thundersnow yet…

        1. Got it. Looked almost like moisture was being pulled northward ahead of the developing storm by the approaching front.

    3. I’m certainly not stating that there WILL be two areas of S+ snows. I’m simply making an observation. We do not even know whether we get a BM storm in the first place.

  65. Correct me if I am wrong anyone but quickly looking at the 18z NAM it looks like it showing a PRE event later Friday PM and evening.

  66. The snow that the models are showing on Friday is ahead of another cold front which essentially gets overwhelmed by the approaching storm as it moves offshore Friday night. I’ve have snow showers in my forecast for Friday for several days now, completely unrelated to the coastal storm.

  68. Great tweet from the NWS

    The NWS would like to emphasize this weekend storm will not even BEGIN to develop off the Carolinas for another 72 hours.

  69. Recon flights have gone out today with data that will be ingested into the 0z model runs tonight per NHC Miami.

      1. Wow!

        This “could” be something else. So cool to watch and monitor this, no matter how it turns out.

  71. I see WCVB (AJ) going hard with the mix line already. Not sure how they can show that when not one single model introduces that.

    2. I think for the south coast and cape. If I had a million bucks every time we do this for big storms and it Ramey happens.

  72. I found this on the Channel 5 website:

    Friday Night
    Watching a potential winter storm. Cloudy and becoming windy with snow showers in the evening and steady snow likely after midnight. Low 23F. N winds at 10 to 20 mph, increasing to 20 to 30 mph. Chance of snow 90%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches.
    Saturday
    Watching a potential winter storm. Snow along with gusty winds at times. High 27F. Winds N at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of snow 100%. Snow accumulating 8 to 12 inches.
    Saturday Night
    Watching a potential winter storm. Windy. Snow in the evening will transition to snow showers overnight. Low 14F. Winds NW at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of snow 90%. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected.

  74. Whatever comes our way, what’s the timeline?

    Staff at my school are asking me whether Friday late afternoon/evening events should be cancelled.

    Can someone field that question for me?

    1. Pretty much every model I have seen hold any meaningful snow off until after dark Friday at the earliest.

  76. Inside Edition airs on Channel 6 in Providence at 7:30. We get the Boston and Providence channels here. Will keep an eye out.

    My guide says that Inside Edition airs on Boston Channel 7 at 11:35 pm. Not sure if it’s the same show. Will check it out.

    1. Yes, looks mighty nice, as long as it doesn’t decide to hug the coast. Upper winds “look” to bring up here in about perfect
      position. Let’s hope it stays that way.

      1. I think that is too far off shore as well. I am more worried
        about a possible closer path. Not an inside runner, but a path
        closer to the coast to possible introduce mix/rain possibilities.
        Does not look that way at this time, but that is my worry.

  82. The Blend of Models, which is usually conservative since it is exactly what it says it is, a “blend” of all the models, has a general 12-20″ across the region on the 18z run. The 12z was a general 8-14″.

  84. Even the GFS is closing off at 500 mb and at the surface, one can see the slowing motion near the Cape.

    I know its great for snow, but this is not good.

    Kind of one of those that looks like everything is coming together and the atmosphere can reach its full potential kind of events.

  87. Gosh its fun watching you folks toss this back and forth. Making my winter just checking in every few hours. Thanks for sharing your knowledge and passion with the rest of us!

  89. Saturday east coast tides will be a problem for 2 different reasons.

    Morning tide is 10.6 ft and since the northeast wind won´t have maxed out, my first guess surge is 2-2.5ft, but that brings it close to 13ft with building waves. That can be somewhat impactful.

    The stall later Saturday into Saturday night. The tide will struggle to go out. Tide is 8.9 ft, but this could be a 4-4.5 ft surge which again, gets to over 13ft with huge waves.

    So, at this early stage, I´d guess minor-moderate flooding Saturday morning and moderate flooding with the most vulnerable locations possibly facing major flooding.

    1. Ryan Hanrahan
      @ryanhanrahan
      11m

      Is a blizzard possible? Absolutely. But a big snowstorm is far from a lock. The afternoon GFS shows why with a notable tick to the east. Still plenty of uncertainty as to where the heaviest snow sets up.

  91. There will be plenty of wobbles and again my biggest concern isn’t a coastal bigger but that it ends up too Far East. That’s a real concern.

  93. One note: A track even right over 40/70 is not always a guarantee biggie, because dry air on the western side of the storm can plan a role as can a somewhat elongated system, which this may be as well. Again, not saying “no biggie”, but just another factor to consider that may come into play. Another example of why some of us won’t throw out forecast amounts until inside 60 hours, preferably 48 hours prior to start. I’ll TRY for 60 this time given the scope of the threat, so maybe sometime Wed PM? (TBD)

      1. I always do. 🙂 If I talk about them before Thursday it will be GENERAL and not locked in.

  94. Watched channel 5 and 7 tonight. Interesting because they were looking at different models I suspect. Channel 7 seemed to have a wide swath of snow in eastern MA. Channel 5 seemed to have the mix line along 495 corridor. Some snow amount ranges were mentioned but not in a very serious way.

    1. Ch 5 was reacting to / showing the ECMWF solution. And those were both channels that mentioned numbers but also very clearly explained not to take them as locks. They all (I saw all of them) did a great job at 6PM.

  96. Local media did EXCELLENT job with this on 6PM news I saw them all. Minimal or no hype – the TV mets were especially good. Only two of them mentioned numbers but were very vocal about saying it was just a very preliminary idea.

    Different subject: Still not sure if tonight is the night my mom’s story is on Inside Edition, but it’s airing at 11:35PM on Ch 7. We’ll see.

  97. I took a few min again late today after my projects to glance beyond the weekend / Monday and it looks like the early days of February will see an immediate pattern change. If that’s right then we’ll gauge to see what kind of staying power that has. But it looks like the see-saw is goin’ back the other way in a hurry. That may put a massive dent in the new snow that falls in rather short order. But now I’m getting ahead of myself. 😉

    2. Agreed, it could be a major meltdown next week. With some potential for a heavy rain event thrown in, that’ll be worth watching…

  98. I really don’t understand the 18z GEFS shift east. If anything the mean upper level pattern looks more favorable for a slightly closer track. The deterministic run was similar though – closer to the Euro in its upper level pattern, but didn’t really budge on its surface forecast.

    FWIW, the 18z Euro looks very similar to the 12z. Could argue it is a tick further east but I think that’s more a slight timing difference, with it being a bit slower (which has been a trend today).

    We’ll see though, it wouldn’t shock me if the 0z runs follow suit and jog east a bit. I expect tomorrow to be the big day in terms of nailing down the big picture.

      1. Yeah, that’s as good as it gets. As depicted, that is absolutely perfect for heavy snow in SNE. If that main trough axis tips a little more negative as it nears the coast though, it will pull the surface low to the west and introduce the mixing scenario.

        Still plenty of time to watch but you guys certainly appear to be in a good spot 🙂

        1. Exactly, but not sure if can go more negative. Lol
          Not too worried about mixing Climo says that would be south of the city towards the cape.

          Tomorrow will be very interesting for sure.

  99. Agree with your thoughts above, WxWatcher. Tomorrow is an important day for getting the first nails in place. Hope we don’t have to pull them at the last minute and nail them somewhere else… HAHA

  100. If the snow totals stay as is we should be able to get a Blizzard Warning hoisted. The NWS doesn’t do Blizzard Watches anymore. Should be able to meet wind and viability criteria. Curious if things stay as what they will decide.

    1. Snow totals are irrelevant for a Blizzard Warning. I’ve already done numerous forecasts in North Dakota on the radio this year where they were under a Blizzard Warning with clear skies.

    2. Blizzard is determined by wind & visibility (used to be temperature too but they removed that). Snow totals play no part in it. While it would be exceedingly rare here, you can have a blizzard under a clear sky with no snow falling.

    2. I saw that tweet…what a buffoon! Never would something like that happen today with all the improved technology and snow removing equipment we have today.

  102. TK:
    I “speedwatched” Inside Edition on Channel 6 in Providence and I did not see a story on Mom. Maybe it will be on Channel 7 tonight at 11:35.

      1. Ha, yes absolutely. NWS always starts out low with their snowmaps and then trends upwards as the event nears. I like the areas they have painted to start but would have made the 6-8 area an 8-12, the 8-12 area 12-18, and the 12-18 area an 18-24″+.

        I also think there will be an intense outer band with the system displaced farther west somewhere across CT and west/central MA like we often see with these systems. Could throw that map way off in western areas.

    1. My mistake – I read this statement too quickly. The flights are planned for tomorrow and Thursday and will be ingested for the 00z runs Thursday night.

  107. FOR JPDAVE and anyone else interested, I found the site you were asking about that shows frontogenesis (banding) projections for both the GFS and NAM:

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/

    A bit early now but will be interesting to look at as we get closer to Saturday.

  108. Follow that energy in the southwest tomorrow evening… 0z NAM definitely looks poised to come west.

    Off to the night shift here 🙂

    3. If you compare most recent GFS 12z SAT position to current NAM 12z SAT position – significant difference.

  111. The NAM worries me more.

    Each successive model suite shows a more impressive 500 mb set-up and this looks like the most impressive 500 mb outlook on the NAM so far.

    Concerned were headed for a sub 970 mb sfc low, maybe even a deeper system that gets captured by a closed 500 mb low and plods along for 6-12 hrs just southeast of us while at max intensity.

    1. the wind all the way up and down I-95 nasty. Don’t know what the tides are for lower manhattan but the funneling in the sound could be rough

  112. The Battery´s high tide Sat morning is 5:10am Saturday morning.

    Bridgeport, CT in Long Island Sound is 8:15am Saturday morning.

  114. Mark I will never forget with NEMO parts of CT got 6 inches of snow in one hour. Biggest snowstorm of my life with 30 inches of snow.

    1. I was just reading back through the blogs of Feb 2013 leading up to that storm. Some eerie similarities to this one with the Euro consistently showing a huge hit first and the other models further east and latching on later. NAM then came in showing a huge hit and astronomical 40-60″ snow totals.

      A bit of a different set up here but some similarities as well. The ceiling is high with this one if we can reach it, and the potential is certainly there for the jackpot to be further west than some of the models are currently showing.

      1. Wait. I think SC means South Carolina but don’t want to assume. They have had snow a couple of times already when we have rain.

      2. The NAM always used to do that but not sure it is in this case. This is a very elongated system so that depiction of snow back southwest into SC may be plausible but I would defer to TK.

  116. The whole progression of the storm has slowed down on this NAM run. It may be overcooked but the slower progression you would think would favor higher snow totals? And based on that look, all of SNE should get into the big snows, including western areas.

      1. Yep, east of both 18z and 12z yet close enough for Boston to still pull 20″ with 20-30″ SE MA. Lower totals though most of the rest of the region.

    1. That snowfall is nearly cut in half over the 2 previous runs.

      22 inches from the 12z run, 18 inches from the 18z run, 12 inches from the 00z run.

  120. I feel bad that western areas lose out on big snow, but further east is better to lessen a high impact hit on eastern areas with a storm that strong.

    Oh well, Euro probably right up the CC canal. LOL !!

  123. Eric had a great potential discussion just now. I’m praying this hits at the best high tide solution. He said tomorrow being day 3 out is when numbers begin to be discussed in earnest.

    1. Problem with Kuchera is that it doesn’t take into account varying processes in play where the snow forms, so those numbers are OTL.

      1. If only!

        It does look like we are vulnerable for a few more snow/mix threats first half of February though. Beyond a brief mild spike and some rain late next week, nothing is screaming torch to me (yet) and the pattern looks to remain active for awhile.

  128. 00z Euro has ticked east a bit (hopefully not the start of a trend) but is still a big hit for pretty much everyone on this blog.

    Hour 90:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2022012600&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Hour 96:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2022012600&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    10:1 Snow with 12-20″ (Kuchera will be higher):

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022012600&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    1. Thanks SAK, great writeup. I was wondering when you were going to be pulling the trigger on the Extreme Hype Watch!

  130. Keep in mind something like the GFS takes into account 10:1 ratios and if that the eventual track then it would be like SAK mentioned closer to 20:1.

    Euro looks unchanged. It’s the biggest battle we’ve seen in a while. I mean GFS looks just fine for folks 30 miles inland but I want everyone to share in the fun.

  134. Models suites trending east. Though it shows big snows for Boston, the continued trend is something to be watched. A graze is still very much on the table.

    1. Hope not I honestly do not believe that happens, but if there is a way to get screwed, then so it will probably happen

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