Wednesday January 26 2022 Forecast (7:48AM)

556 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 26-30)

The cold is back! After a one-day break we’re back to the chill from Canada, and this time it will hang around for several days. We’ll at least enjoy dry weather with the cold for the next couple of days, but keep an eye out early today for icy patches on untreated surfaces in any areas where melt-water yesterday was not able to dry up before the temperature dropped last night. Friday, we see the clouds back along with the chance of some snow shower activity as another cold front moves into the area. While this is going on, a storm will be developing off the US Southeast Coast, destined to make a rapid run north northeastward just off the East Coast while rapidly intensifying, with cold air in place here. Yes, a pretty classic set-up for a significant snow (or mostly snow) event for us along with lots of wind. We won’t have a blocking set-up this time. Any wobble or wiggle in the storm’s path would be caused by its own upper level set-up. We’ll also be looking at coastal impacts because of combined wind and astronomical high tides as we head for a new moon (which occurs early next week on February 1). What’s left to figure out is the exact track of the low and the orientation of the precipitation shield (banding, dry slots, etc.) as to helping us figure out snowfall accumulation by numbers. I know that some maps are already out there, but I’ll probably make my first broad accumulation estimate in the comments section later today, and it will definitely be on tomorrow’s blog. I will see that a scenario of double-digit snowfall for a good part of the WHW forecast area is definitely on the table for a system that arrives Friday night and continues through Saturday. By Sunday, we’ll see improved weather and it will be a good day for post-storm cleanup as high pressure moves in.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -2 to +3 interior low elevations, 4-9 most locations, 10-15 Cape Cod. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 12-19. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arriving overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast. Snow. Blowing and drifting snow. Significant snow accumulation expected. Slight chance of a snow/rain mix Cape Cod. Highs 18-25 except 25-32 South Shore to Cape Cod. Wind NE 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow tapering off evening. Clearing overnight. Blowing and drifting snow likely. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

A dry and seasonably cold end to January. February likely starts with a temperature moderation and a couple periods of unsettled weather.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

Overall milder pattern but variable temperatures expected. Being near the border of mild to the south and cold to the north means episodes of unsettled weather are more possible.

556 thoughts on “Wednesday January 26 2022 Forecast (7:48AM)”

  4. Thanks TK.

    Logan now at 12.8” for the season to date.

    Could BOS and NYC be in a close race with this Saturday storm? Could both cities receive similar amounts?

  6. Thanks TK
    Snowfall Standings
    BOS 12.8
    NY 7.0
    BOS has increased there lead this month. Coming into the month BOS had 0.4 and NY had 0.2 If the 6z GFS verifies game over BOS will be the winner for winter 2021-2022. Last winter both cities tied with 38.6 inches of snow.

  7. Thank you TK!
    What are the thoughts on thunder snow with this system for our area, as we will have rapid development and pressure drops.? If the low closes off before reaching us will that decrease our thunder snow chances?

  8. Thanks TK. I know it’s early for lots of details but is it possible to determine where the biggest winds will be? Will it primarily be on the coast again or more across the region? After all the hoopla it is hard to believe we are still several days away.

  9. I am still waiting to experience thundersnow for the first time ever. I don’t think it happens where I am with this storm.

  11. I’ve experienced it about 4 times, one of those times it was with extremely heavy sleet. I can tell you that it never gets old and in my opinion one of the coolest weather conditions. The lightning seems even brighter reflecting off of the falling snow but yet the thunder is muffled but yet still loud.

    1. I agree. I think I have experienced it about a dozen times. It is so cool! And like you, once it was during heavy sleet near the end
      of that 1993 super storm.

      1. Hmm I see 6Z, I have the premium edition so not sure if the person viewing doesn’t have that then they can’t see it. Remind me how to to insert a picture?

        1. That must be it. Can you take a screen shot and save it and then upload that file to IMGBB? that would do it.

  15. Maybe this winter I will finally experience it and be able to cross that off the list of weather I have experienced in my life.

    1. Couldn’t we take the qpf output and apply a reasonable ratio?

      That’s why sometimes I take the qpf and mutiple by 11 for 11 to 1, 12 for 12 to one etc. and get a better feel for what might
      accumulate. Of course that is relying on the qpf output. If that
      is off, then all bets are off.

      for example the EURO 0Z qpf for Boston is 1.83 inches

      10:1 = 18.3 inches
      11:1 = 20.13
      12;1 = 22.14
      15:1 = 27.45
      18:1 = 32.94
      20:1 = 36.6

      6Z GFS ratio is 17:1 which is: 17×1.83 = 31.11 inches.

      So it boils down to what you think the ratio will be.
      Clearly it will be north of 10 to 1, but how far is the $64,000 question.

      Do you think the qpf output on these models is way off?

      Curious

  20. I still continue to be amazed at how quiet the surface map is even early Friday morning, around 24-36 hrs before the storm.

    Meanwhile, at 500 mb, things are evolving at the same time frame.

  22. Thanks Hadi for all of those links. Much appreciated.

    tip When making a screen shot (gif) on pivotal, there is an option for full screen vs half screen. I will attempt to show where here: In the drop down there are 2 options, one for half (default) and one for full. The full images look much better when uploaded.

    https://ibb.co/s2rPDk1

  23. Thanks, TK.

    Several models appear to be showing more snow for NYC and even Eastern NJ than the Boston area. Is this a function of the system’s jog east?

    1. I’m not sure.

      Those 2 outcomes ….. more snow further west on a further eastward track seem to contradict each other.

    2. It appears the models continue to suggest two bands of heavy snow so two distinct areas may get the Jack pot but almost everyone gets in on the fun.

  24. Wow, still big 500 mb differences at hr 48 on just the very recent 12z HRRR vs 12z NAM at hour 48

    On the HRRR, the base of the trof is centered in east Texas.

    On the NAM, the base of the trof is centered in west Texas.

    1. Suggesting NAM will track closer to the coast and HRRR farther to the EAST? But over time, the 500 mb configuration could
      still become quite similar, no?

      1. Yes, I think so. NAM closer to the coast and HRRR further east.

        The 500 mb projections eventually end up similar, but the HRRR looks slightly more progressive and therefore, the center of the trof eventually closing off would, in theory, occur further east and then that would translate at the surface to a further east tracking sfc low.

  25. 7 years ago today, we had a huge snowstorm around here that kicked off the “snow blitz” of 2015.

    7 years ago today, StormHQ was born, when I spent the entire storm on my personal Facebook page making fun of the ridiculous hype (because I wasn’t actually working those 2 days).

    While that storm lived up to the hype in eastern New England (its Lowell’s storm of record with 31.3″), it has a historic bust of a forecast for NYC, where the entire city was essentially shut down based on forecasts that were going for 2 feet or more, but the storm jogged east at the last moment, with 8-10″ in NYC, but central and eastern Long Island getting buried.

    https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_01262715
    https://www.weather.gov/images/box/ClimatePastWeather/pastevents/Jan_26-27_2015/Jan_26-27_2015_Snow_Anal_box.png

  26. The NAM is already hinting at closing off and even negative tilting and the east side of the trof is just hitting the northern mid-atlantic coast line.

    The models that are further east, without looking back, I’d bet the closing off is occuring further east over the ocean south of eastern Long Island, the Vineyard, etc

  27. Thanks, TK — and SAK!

    I think I’m remembering thundersnow on the evening of Feb. 5, 2011. I had never seen it, and I initially wondered whether there was a bad electrical malfunction in my dishwasher or the adjacent wall! (I was looking out my kitchen window.) Once I calmed down, it was extremely cool.

  28. Oh boy 12Z NAM looks textbook. Perfect track, stalls south of us delivering incredible snow, I feel for the coast. Speechless

  30. To me, the question 60-72 hrs out now is very focused and simple …..

    which models look like the NAM at 48 hrs at 500mb and which look like the HRRR at 48 hrs and …..

    obviously, which projection is correct.

    On the table: 4-8 inches of snow in eastern areas with manageable wind vs potentially crippling south shore event with very heavy inland snows.

    1. Jackpot area in central CT through east/central MA is NEMO-esque. Extrapolated out I think the Kuchera totals would end up 40”+ In the jackpot zone.

        1. Except Cape Cod. 😉

          That’s too close. Boston’s snow would probably end up a lot wetter too.

    1. Mark, I thoroughly enjoy your posts. This one has tears of laughter running down my cheeks. Keep ‘em coming

      And thank you very much to EVERYONE for links and commentary. This is the best of weather

  37. LOL!!! Good one Mark. Too bad were still a few days away but that 12z NAM was nice to look at and it is still snowing past 84 hours.

  38. On a sad note…and one where I thought of you, TK….a dear man has passed away. Mr Mugar was a family friend. He gave so much to our city

    BREAKING NEWS ALERT
    David Mugar, a prominent businessman and deep-pocketed philanthropist who injected fireworks and cannon fire into Boston’s annual Fourth of July celebration, one of many contributions to civic life that left a lasting imprint on the city and region, died Tuesday night.

    As chairman and CEO of Mugar Enterprises Inc., Mr. Mugar oversaw a sprawling, privately held empire comprising real estate holdings, retail businesses, performance venues, and other investment- and arts-oriented enterprises.

  39. I also think ratios will be high away from the south coast, I mean 15:1-20:1 in many spots. Could make this even more interesting. But again it is NAM @ 84 hrs. Generally it’s terrible at this range so I wouldn’t get too excited

  40. With an 1+ across eastern SNE and snow ratio’s 12 to 20 inches. Blizzard conditions man I wish I was there lol.

  41. In theory, when the GFS starts to run and it hits hr 48, look at the 500 mb chart.

    Think of the bottom part of a roller coaster, when your about to switch from going down to going up.

    If, at hr 48, that bottom part of the roller coaster is over east Texas, I’ll bet the sfc low ends up east of the benchmark.

    If, at hr 48, the bottom part of the rollercoaster is over the east New Mexico/west Texas border, then the sfc low will end up btwn Nantucket and the benchmark.

  42. Been following this site for a while and love it! I’m definitely a novice when it comes to weather, but it has always peaked my interest. What at home weather station would you all recommend?

    1. Track decently off shore so heaviest snow across Eastern
      sections.

      Tale of 2 models, the NAM and RDPS. Pretty much shows
      the range of solutions. What will the GFS looks like?

  51. Frustrating to see the GFS consistently east and not backing down. This is the difference between 30″ and 5″ for my area. Definitely a big caution flag with the onset of the storm only 2.5 days away.

    1. Yup, Im concerned a smaller impact is still on the table. I do believe either way, eastern MA sees significant impact but is perhaps spared by the astronomical totals. Western areas, even less so if the GFS solution verifies.

  53. GFS still scary.

    Clearly a capture and slow down of the low and some backing of the heavy precip as the system goes from 974 mb to 959 mb

    959 mb !!!

    40-50 miles west is all that’s needed on that projection for something very memorable.

    1. GFS has not behaved well, so though it should be considered a viable solution especially if supported by other models, I wouldn’t lock it in yet. Yet, it is becoming a concern of mine since models did trend East last night.

        1. I’d like to see the 500 initiate a few more miles to the west which may thereby capture the bomb closer to the coast. The amplification is not the issue. It’s as amped as it gets. Placement of the 500 mb is key IMHO.

  55. CMC cranking now, then Ukmet and then Euro. 3 more
    to add to the mix. I still think the more East solutions are wrong
    given the upper air configurations. But who knows.

      1. Did you see that? I don’t see that either model is out far enough? Or is that what you think will happen?

            1. Someone posted it on the AmericanWx forum. There is another site for the UKMET but it is zoomed way out and very hard to read

    2. Upper air config shows the 500 a tad too east IMHO. I’d like to see it initiate further west a few miles to capture the low closer to the BM.

    1. To my untrained eyes, it looks like there’s good clustering west of the mean and is being influenced by some far east members

  58. Eric said last night that regardless of the track that this may well qualify as bombogenisis. I think he was more firm than May but I can’t find the link and do not want to misquote . It may have been on tv which would explain why I can’t find a tweet He detailed the definition as well.

    1. Even a complete miss of the precip (which won’t be the case), it will qualify because of the rate of deepening of the low. It will be deepening somewhat similarly to that Jan 4 bomb we had a few years ago (tho the track may be a bit east of that one). When you get bombo-development you can generate heavy snow bands pretty far away from the low’s track anyway – so that’s definitely something to watch.

  59. I also noticed that the GFS shows a 984 mb low – a tad weaker than yesterdays solutions. Would like to see it deepen a tad sooner which also may affect placement.

    1. The very low pressures on yesterday’s runs was probably overdone, but it will still be an impressively powerful cyclone.

  60. 12Z GDPS KUCHERA SNOW. Something is up for sure.
    Here we go again. MOTHER NATURE has found yet another way to SCREW us again and provide a nice tease! This I say after it still shows 14 inches for Boston. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    I want it all!!! I don’t want no stinken 14 inches! I want 35 inches!

    https://ibb.co/w7qk17M

  61. Calling ImAlwaysRight, you’ve been lurking too long. It’s time to step out of the shadows again. 😉

    2. I saw this coming IF this were to verify when the models came out late yesterday evening. Once models begin to come together on a solution as we get closer to the event, it typically sticks, unfortunately.

      1. So it now looks like the good ole NAM is an OUTLIER!!!!!!

        Let’s see how far to sea the Euro Goes. Perhaps all the way to Bermuda!
        )(@*(#&()!*@)(*#!)(*@#)(!*)(@#*!()*#)(!*)(@*#)(*!()@#*()!*@()#*)(!*@#()!*@()#*()!@*#()!*()@#*)(!*@#()!*)(@#*()!*@#()!*@()#*!)(@*#!**@#(!*@*#&)(!@#&()!*@()#*)!(@&#)(*!()@#*()!*@()#*!()@*#()!*()@#*)(!*@#()*!(*((!#*#@&$*&@*#&$*(@&#*($&*($&@(*#&$*(@&#*($&(*@

  65. 12Z UKMET 10:1 snow. Likely have to add some to this for
    ratio.

    https://ibb.co/GcmzW4Q

    1.32 inches qpf for Boston.

    at 15:1 that would be 19.8 inches

    Not too shabby, but falls short of expectations due to the TEASE
    of previous runs.

  66. This is exactly why TK, WxW, myself, and others have been saying that we won’t come up with amounts until 48 hours or so before a storm.

    The example I posted above from 2015 should have been a huge red flag. Yes, we got blasted here, but forecasters were nearly unanimous that so would NYC, and a little jog to the east at the last minute meant that it ended up as a moderate snowstorm in the NYC, and not a blockbuster.

    1. Unfortunately, you are so correct. It could come back West a little, no? We shall see.

      I am guessing probably not.

    2. Was really hoping this wouldn’t be the sequel to that 2015 system, but it does seem to be trending that way.

  67. With Arod about, I though for sure we would get clobbered.

    There is still some time for things to shift.

    Oh right, shift even more OTS!!!!!!

  68. somewhere along the way I seem to remember the models shift and dance on day 4 and 3 than tighten up on 48 hr. away from the event

  71. Been watching the slow but steady jog eastward for a while now. With nothing to block it, or prevent further eastward movement this could turn out to be a less-than-impressive event. Perhaps even a dud. We shall see.

    1. I NEVER though that we would be dealing with a more Eastward track as I was scared to death of a more Westward track.
      Oh well, New England weather. Gotta love it.

          1. I did call it up and you are correct.

            I need about 10 re-reads, but I think it means a better 5 day forecast vs what actually happened at 500 mb the closer you get to 1.

            1. Interesting. I’d read that completely as the opposite the first time around. As in, I thought it meant that the closer to 1, the more model error.

                1. It’s a model correlation to the 500mb pattern worldwide. So, a correlation of 1 means that the forecast was absolutely perfect every time. The higher the number, the better. So, what that chart says, is that over the last month, the best models worldwide (not necessarily around here), for a Day 5 forecast, have been, in order

                  ECMWF
                  UKMET
                  CMC
                  GFS
                  IMD (not sure which model this is)
                  FNO (again, not sure)
                  CFS

  73. I hope I can give voice to the citizens of the immediate south shore.

    East !! East !! East !! That would be a relief in Marshfield.

    If this were a 990 mb storm, I’d be disappointed too.

    970 mb ish, no thanks !

  75. One positive about the UKMET, if you compare the 12z UKMET with the 0z from last night, it made a HUGE shift west. So that is a step in the right direction. I am just really disappointed to see such a dramatic shift SE and weaker in the Canadian.

    I would be surprised if the Euro didnt come east, let’s just hope its a subtle shift.

    1. At this point, there is no way I could predict which way the Euro would go, but based on trends and our luck, it will be East.
      Hope not

  76. My gut tells me weaker and East. We really need it to join camp NAM and then it’s a crap shoot. If it doesn’t, then the outcome may be crap!

  77. Boston still is fine in most scenarios, I would be worried the further west. This isn’t going east where it misses everyone.

  78. Where do folks consider Natick–I know we are in the coastal plain, but would you consider us in “Eastern Areas”

    1. Eastern…for the most part. However in the GFS scenario, you are just far enough west that you would get literally half the snow Boston does.

    2. No mans land in this scenario. When its an inland snow event, Natick gets mix/rain. When its a coastal special, much less snow. I’m in the same boat, it sucks.

  79. There always seems to be an intense band that sets up further west than modeled in these setups near the outer precip shield and I think that happens here. It’s the area of best forcing/frontogenesis and its often displaced well NW of the storm center. There will be tremendous inflow off the ocean with this system, so holding out hope for some higher totals across west/central MA and CT.

    There’s often two areas of snow maxima that happen with these storms…the outer jackpot band and the inner heavier banding closer to the storm center. Then you get that area of subsidence in between with lower totals. Just impossible at this point to tell where those areas will be.

    1. The problem is that the band you speak of is the one that strikes eastern areas only according to those models excluding the NAM given it’s track outside the BM.

      1. Well depends what model you look at. Even the GFS scenario would support this feature farther west but the operational models are not good at showing this.

          1. Correct, it is likely not going to be just one wide heavy swath of snow. There will be more than one and the model does not have the resolution to identify the areas of mesoscale banding. We’ll see it when the short range models come into play.

            1. Agree. I’ve been saying that some of the models seem to be picking up on two axises of heavy snow: one in eastern MA and another to the west. However, if the storm travels outside the BM as illustrated on the GFS, UKMET and ICON, I feel that second band wouldn’t extend westward beyond eastern MA. Time will tell. Let’s hope for a BM special so everyone gets in on the action 🙂

  80. I am hoping this is what Bernie Rayno calls the windshield wiper and things start trending west starting with the 0z runs tonight.

  86. Euro is hanging back the southern stream energy more, similar to the GFS, but the northern stream is stronger. Its gonna end up east, but hopefully not by much.

  89. WTH? Between hour 66 and 72 the low center jumps due east from the OBX and chases that convective blob out to sea.

    1. The other models still show similar totals outside of the NAM which is more robust. The only difference between the models is low placement.

  96. The EURO is more favorable than the GFS and is closer to the NAM’s solution. A cautious sigh of relief.

  100. Thanks TK.

    Minus the NAM, easy to explain the eastward trend on most of the 12z runs. Just holding a little bit more energy back over the Southwest. Phase just a little bit later.

    I do still think it has room to wobble back the other way a bit. Getting towards crunch time though. I think most of eastern MA and RI are good for 12″+. More about the western edge at this point.

    3. Kuchera doesn’t work well in this set up. Ignores too much about the actual atmosphere.

      Totals in the max areas are usually quite overdone.

      1. qpf for Boston is 1.83 inches. at 10:1 that is still 18.3 inches
        And it would only go up from there. Pick your ratio.

        Ok, you say 12:1 then it would be: 21.96 inches

        So, still looks mighty fine to me.

  105. Due to the cold dry air to the north I would think there would be a very sharp cutoff on the northern and western edges with this weekends system

  106. Reading a lot about issues with that run so won’t place a lot of emphasis on those totals. Way overdone IMO shave that in half and it’s realistic. A lot of convective feedback from that run is what I am reading. But I will let those smarter than analyze it.

    1. usually these models I guess tend to pull surface lows further to the east than they should because of the convective feedback that never actually exists to the east of the low.

  107. Love that run. Freeze it there. EURO historically doesn’t make quick adjustments but see if there is a trend on future runs.

  108. Tweets from Meteorologist Steve DiMartino

    Note, the ECMWF isn’t further east. The lifting properties are a bit better defined. We clearly are going to have the strongest lifting on the coast. GFS shows the same thing in New England. As a result, you get very strong sinking air that creates a sharp cut off.

    In short, right now we have a stalemate between models revolving around that 500 MB low-pressure development.

  109. Just returned from Star Market, quite busy to say the least. People already preparing for the worst.

    Why only 2 checkouts open????

  110. Anyone else rapidly aging with these model runs ??

    🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Today feels like its been 60 hrs in length already.

    2. I have been convinced for TWO days that it is Saturday. And all I’m doing is reading. You guys are doing the research

  111. Do these model shifts, assuming they don’t reverse soon, translate to lower snow/wind totals for Natick? Thanks.

    1. Higher wind and lower snow totals given the lower ratios and especially if rain mixes in down there.

      1. Thanks. I don’t understand why things would be wetter here if storm moved farther east. Also why would wind go up? Appreciate your help as I am in the intro class.

        1. Wouldn’t be wetter “here.” It would be wetter the further south and East you go so places like Nantucket would see lower ratios and therefore lower snow totals though still significant. As it pertains to wind, since Nantucket is closer to the center of the storm, the impacts from wind on the island would be much greater than those seen the further away from the center you go.

          1. My apologies. I thought you said Nantucket! My bad. For Natick, it still falls within the axis of heavy snow and ratios would be higher than 10:1 thus snow totals would still remain largely unchanged even with the shift East. However, locations like western MA and CT would miss out on the fun if the low does travel outside of the benchmark as the axis of heaviest snow would not impact those areas. Also, the further East the low travels, the less wind Natick will experience as it will be further away from the center of the storm.

  112. Hi Philip. Went to market early and saw the same thing.

    Here is my SUPERMARKET FORECAST.

    Today: The Surge
    Thurs: Panic Buying
    Friday: Aisle Warfare

    Probably a more solid forecast than the storm itself!

    1. I had an Instacart delivery this morning. The shopper was exceptional. He picked perfect substitutions.

      Lots of empty shelves but that has been the case out this way for weeks. Poultry, rice, dairy products and others…..absolutely bare.

        1. I have not been able to get light cream or half and half or cream cheese in any form in weeks. I can get it at the farm out this way. Poultry is sparse too.

          I rarely use milk so get the shelf stable horizon about once a month

  113. I’ve gotten 6 private message today asking something like “so we’re really getting 3 feet of snow?” … A popular FB page has been very successful at spreading this rumor this time. I’ve reminded each and every one of them that coming to a blog like this, or going to NWS or local media is the way to find out your forecast that is made by people who are actually qualified to deliver you that information. 🙂 Hopefully more and more as listening.

    I haven’t had much chance to look at anything yet since 12z. I have a postponed 90th bday party for my mom at my brother’s house later today so I’ll be a bit tied up with that for a while, but hopefully I sneak in a peak-in at the INFO and comment further.

    Saw NWS’s map – even tho I don’t have my #’s yet, I feel kind of what they are posting right now is in the ballpark!

    BTW, 30 inches was probably never a possibility with this thing. Remember what I said earlier about those Kuchera #’s. Some models just cannot deliver you #’s that are dependable. The key is knowing when that’s the case.

  116. Ok, so I am thinking around 10 inches or so for Auburn area? Looks like southeastern Mass is going to get the jackpot. Man, this is still waaaaay too much snow for this old lady. Lolol.

    1. That model has gone INSANE. Looks like it might be a complete
      MISS!!!!!!()@&#*)&!*&@*&*(&*(&!*@(&*(&@*(&!*(&!*

    1. It’s also a hideous model…The move east was expected as usual with these storms. It will start to trend further west late tonight tomorrow a bit more.

  119. Quick look at the 18z NAM and it is a miss for most of SNE with the exception of the Cape and Islands.

  122. Nam is actually party sunny and breezy here on Saturday. Lucky to even see a flake, lol.

    On a positive note, at least there wont be much to wash away in our 55 degree rain storm later next week….

  123. Per Ryan Hanrahan….

    First cut of snow totals I have is 3-6 west of I-91 and 6-12 east of I-91. I’ve got 12+ inside 495 and most of RI.

    1. He may want to re-think that. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      RDPS out in a few. We’ll see if it’s in on the cruel joke or not.

  124. The 18Z NAM is laughable. How could it change this much in 6 hours. OMG )(!@()*#)(&*()@#*)(!@*()#*()!*#()!*(@)#*!)(*#)(!*#()*!()#*!()@#*()!*#()*!()#*()!*@)(#*!()#*()!*@()#*()!*#()*()!*#()*

    https://ibb.co/R7cj2ky

    A MISS for almost all of SNE and Side-swipe graze to far SE , Cape and Islands.

    What a Joke.

    I guess Mother Nature has punched us in the mouth!

    FIGURES!!!

    Please someone step up and inform us that the NAM
    had initialization issues!!!

    What a REVOLTING DEVELOPMENT THIS IS!!!!

  125. What the hell do the tv Mets go on and say, some of them start at 4pm …….

    Saturday: partly sunny, 40% chance of 2 feet of snow ??

    They are going to earn every penny the next 36 hrs

    1. If they are smart, they discount it. An 18z off cycle run of the NAM at 84 hours showing a shift of hundreds of miles from its previous run should be tossed….at least until it shows some consistency and has other model support.

      1. Reasonable.

        I just feel bad that, this is what they see headed to the camera.

        I know it’s an 18z run with a lot less atmospheric data inputted, but as JoDave states above, I don’t remember a recent 18z NAM run making such a change either.

      2. Even the models that have shifted east are still a significant storm for pretty much everybody. There is a little support right now for a complete whiff.

      1. This literally happens every time we are heading for a major storm. Windshield effect and things will come around! Stay cool!

        1. I don’t know how to stay cool, Never could. Doing the best i can. Waiting for the damn RDPS to get out far enough.

  126. If I was a TV / radio media person, I’d continue to avoid specific numbers and mention a slight trend eastward today, and that we’ll continue to watch and update, and leave the potential for the major storm IN PLACE. There’s no reason to change it based on a NAM run beyond 48 hours. I suspect most of them will do this. But ouch I can only imagine what the followers of that page that put out the 2-3 foot historic storm are going to write on his page after they see that. 😉 Glad I’m not that guy!

    2. The problem is that when people like that have their outrageous forecasts bust, their followers pile hate onto the professionals, too.

      Meteorologists are treated poorly as is. People act like predicting the weather is easy. It’s legitimately incredible that we can do it with any accuracy at all.

      1. It gives me hope that there are people like you who actually understand this…

        Of course everybody on this blog understands this. I speak of many members of the general public that are not sitting on this blog.

        Education is key and a lot of us do our part. But it can be very hard to educate people who don’t want to learn anything.

  127. To Debbie Stone & J Woodsmall…

    Your messages were in moderation and I just approved them both. I just wanted you to know that. I wasn’t at the pilot’s chair to do that until just now. I know you both on FB but welcome to the actual blog. 🙂

  128. So at quick glance, the NAMs basically “decided” that the primary low is going to be about 300 miles further east on the 18z run from where it was on the 12z run. Seen this. It may be a crock. Give me 2 or 3 more runs like this and then I’ll pay attention to it.

  129. Yes please. I say it. SAK says it. JMA says it. WxW says it. NWS says it…

    https://scontent-bos3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/p180x540/272466472_238662528438751_598586518602912524_n.jpg?_nc_cat=111&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=L1LYQGiTJBUAX-eETm7&_nc_ht=scontent-bos3-1.xx&oh=00_AT-1f5fgL7o_RQf_IoKbdEVmCFP0IRtPKGbWocP9EftInw&oe=61F6036E

    NWS text to go with the above image…
    “Why limited details regarding the potential winter storm Sat? Well, the average model error at this time range (3 days out) is over 150 miles! For example, where will the rain/snow line setup? 150 miles could range from Cape Cod, MA to New Haven, CT. Hence, still too early for specific details. Nonetheless, potential for heavy snow, strong winds, coastal flooding and dangerous seas remains high.”

      1. We are right at 3 days. When I issued my forecast this morning, Saturday was day 4.

        And there is a little wiggle room around that 3-day mark depending on where the energy is for the system, etc.

        There really isn’t just this solid line that we cross that suddenly we go from untrustable guidance to perfectly trustable. It just simply doesn’t work that way.

  130. Ought Oh!

    18Z RPDPS 500 mb looks to flat. Not sharpening up fast enough to get it up the coast. Another Fish Storm? We shall see.

    2. Every time I see that thing I want to call it the “Herp Derp Model”. It comes from something my son used to say when he was little.

  133. 18Z RDPS is off shore some, but still delivers a foot or more
    to Eastern sections. At least it is not a total miss.

  135. If the 18z NAM looks to verify come Friday night, lets each give $100 and we´ll buy a snow-making machine from a ski resort.

    Run on high all weekend ………. first stop: JpDave´s yard, then Hadi´s, then Mark.

    You get 6 hrs and the home owner has to supply the water.

      1. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        Just trying to find some humor in that NAM run.

        Any run can have changes, but I wasn´t expecting that kind of change.

        1. Me either. That was a real SHOCK!

          I saw the 500 mb at 48 hours and said I don’t like the looks of that and sure enough, Boom!!

    2. I would have no complaints about a miss, tons of sports, in laws are in town. I love the hype before, but as I age the clean up and disruption on life. I also got tired of being sorely disappointed

      1. Awesome! He was one of my all time favorites. Loved his presentations.

        He is contractually prevented from posting? Just curious.

        I catch him on Weather blast and on Face Book.

        1. Mark is long time favorite of mine. I am a co-admin on a weather related Facebook page and he’s a member there – once in a while will chime in. Always nice to see when he comments. 🙂 I also check out his forecasts.

          I can still hear his voice with that background music when he used to do the old WVBF 105.7FM in Boston back in the 1980s. “For WVBF Satellite Computer Weather, I’m Mark Rosenthal!” I actually have a clip of him saying that on a mix tape I made back around 1985. HAHA…

    2. He was my all-time favorite as well! He was so enthusiastic and passionate especially related to snow. Bruce Schwoegler was another one I admired along with Bob Copeland.

      1. Schwoegler did not have the same skill as Mr. Rosenthal or Mr. Copeland, but Bruce’s enthusiasm was unmatched.

    1. New England Storm Chasers … don’t let its name fool you. It’s a good page to discuss weather on. I’m an admin there along with 7 other people.

          1. Ok . Far from over . I already received the call it’s mine if I want . I need to work my two shifts Friday night & Saturday but after I can do snow if I want . Go in 11pm Friday & leave 7 am Sunday — zombie life !!

  142. 18Z GFS 500 mb a little bit flatter then 12Z at same time.
    Don’t like the looks of that. Predict GFS to more East.
    We shall see.

    1. It’s going East, but still gets some snow into Eastern Sections.
      You can say good-bye to those huge totals!!!!

      1. That run shows at low down to 956 as it passes by. That’s what would allow for those greater totals along the coast despite being outside the BM. There is no more room for error.

  147. A west shift is notorious with these systems once they are sampled more. I would not panic at this point, watch the 500MB and see how it shakes out

    1. That GFS 500 mb is sweet if only about 50 miles more West.
      So close. If that 500 closes off sooner, we’d be in business.

      Let’s see what the 0Z runs bring. If they continue with the slide
      Eastward, then I’d say we’re cooked.

      Waiting on 0Z!!!!

      2. Agree. Still time to adjust a little bit we’re running out of time. If this were 24 hours ago, I’d say plenty of room for wobbling. We are less than 60 hours away from onset.

    1. Having just chatted with you, TK, I’m thinking this would be your choice of wording combined with numbers.

        1. In other words, we need to stop any further eastward movement or this will become a fish storm 🙁

  149. Just think tomorrow at this time we will be talking about what could have been. The 3 day rule has been right again

    1. Tomorrow would be two days which is even more frustrating. So do we need to downgrade to a two day rule. It bounces back to what other means are available other than models. And i say that having watched the absolute can of worms created by the Models.

      My heart bleeds for folks Who stand in front of the camera when the majority of individuals just don’t understand…..no matter how many time those folks use the words potential or possible or share ranges that are Read as everyone in the range gets he highest number.

      1. Technically, I’m the meteorological world, tomorrow is day 3. Super strange to me but that is just what it is.

        2. According to Eric….you all knew I’d ask him since I’m a stickler for always going to the source ….today is three days out tomorrow is two days out. When he said five on Monday, he meant five no matter what time of day because Saturday is five days from Monday

            1. So weird – SAK and TK would say otherwise. In fact, if I’m mistaken, it’s a pet peeve of SAK’s. I’m with you. To me, we are three days away, but technically that is not correct as it pertains to weather.

              1. Not sure the reasoning but It didn’t make sense to me either. According to two major Mets, tomorrow being two days away is absolutely correct meteorologically. Both of the ones I asked used the proper day numbers in their tweets this week

                I suppose if you carefully state in the morning that today is day one of a forecast, that would make sense. But you cannot say as of today that Saturday is four days away. My guess is that is where the confusion lies.

                1. So weird. I could have sworn that both TK and SAK just educated us on this topic. Perhaps, I misunderstood.

                2. Though Saturday is certainly 72 hours or 3 days away, I think they count today as day 1 instead of day 0. That would make tomorrow day 2, Friday day 3 and Saturday day 4. I think there is a difference between how many days away something may occur and what day it is actually labeled.

  152. This afternoon a 1980s music radio station ( I won’t identify it) the DJ put out the word that snowfall totals would be up to 2 feet like it was the final call. HOW IRRESPONSIBLE!!!!!!

  155. Pretty much ready to write this one off barring some significant improvements with the 0z runs, at least for my area. Most folks in eastern MA are still in play for a decent system but I’d keep the expectations low for any “big” totals.

    Boy do the morning Euro and NAM runs showing 20-30″ inland seem like a distant memory now…

      1. That’s what I’m worried about now. If the Boston area ends up with less then a foot it will be a huge disappointment.

        1. That would only be based on too much reliance on model guidance snowfall numbers before they were reliable.

        2. Could very well happen. I’ve seen this happen way too many times. Once it begins to trend in any particular direction, that trend typically verifies.

  156. I’m going to see if I can clarify the difference between how many days away something is and what forecast day it is…

    Today is Wednesday.
    When the forecast was made this morning today was day one. That makes Thursday day two. That makes Friday day three. And that made Saturday day four.

    But if you are counting how many days away something is you don’t count the day that you are on. Today being Wednesday makes Thursday one day away. It makes Friday 2 days away. And it makes Saturday 3 days away. That is what Eric meant when he said it was 3 days away.

      1. Yes we basically said the same thing. I didn’t see that comment before for some reason.

        The only time you use day zero is when you are counting how many days away something is.

        When you are using forecast days and you make a forecast early in the day the forecast for that day is a day one forecast, not a forecast for something that is one day away. Once you know the difference then the rest of it follows.

        2. It’s funny. When I educate my patients on the quarantine guidelines, I have to remind them that the first day of symptom onset is actually day 0.

        3. Maybe there is a “Day Zero.” I think there is even a song about it that starts something like:
          Day-Zero
          All my troubles seemed so far away
          Now it looks as though they’re here to stay
          Oh, I believe in Day-Zero

    2. That is where I think the confusion is. The wording isn’t consistent.

      SAK said in his 1/26 post today that the system is four days away. (“…But, it’s still 4 days away, and a lot can change”) In the same discussion he referenced a link by NWS also on 1/26 (today) that says it is three days away. That completely confused me.

      But also recall the discussion I had with you re Eric’s post Monday. He said five days away which caught my attention. I suspect you remember the rest of the conversation.

      I’m not faulting anyone. Several have asked so I did what I like to do and tried to figure it out

      https://scontent-bos3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/p180x540/272466472_238662528438751_598586518602912524_n.jpg?_nc_cat=111&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=L1LYQGiTJBUAX-eETm7&_nc_ht=scontent-bos3-1.xx&oh=00_AT-1f5fgL7o_RQf_IoKbdEVmCFP0IRtPKGbWocP9EftInw&oe=61F6036E

      2. Trust me, I know how confusing it is, and mainly because the two ways of wording it can be easily used interchangeable. I’m going to keep this in mind when I write about such things in the future. 🙂

  159. I get it, the day thing. Where I get hung up is why is the forecast day inclusive in the counting? It makes it seem like you’re still making a forecast as the event is happening. It’s not a forecast at that point.

  160. Weather dynamics are fascinating. There are so many variables that models must contend with, but mets like TK and SAK must analyze and interpret. And, of course, nothing happens under experimental circumstances. We can’t hold anything constant, or pretend that confounding variables aren’t there.

    To me, the other interesting thing is that the trajectory of the weekend storm will impact our weather after the storm has passed, at least in the immediate aftermath. And some storms can literally bring about pattern changes and shifts in the weather dynamics.

    1. Believe it or not, there are some parallels with economics and econometric forecasting. The latter is MUCH less precise. It is after all a social and not a natural science. Yet, the modeling is similar in some ways. Exogenous shocks can also disrupt sometimes so much that they change the way in which the economy is modeled going forward. Essentially, exogenous stimuli can shape the endoneity of future models.

    1. Just don’t get hung up on every single run . We have a significant winter storm coming for a good part of the area .

        1. Yes! This is the part of the storm that I enjoy as much as the actual storm itself! Love tracking and anticipating weather.

  168. I like the westward jog. What a set of model runs today, enough to make you seasick.

    I really like Mark’s comparison shot of two model runs: the NAM with next to nothing in terms of snow for most of the area, except the Cape and the Islands, and the Euro with an absolute blockbuster (37 inches in Boston, for example). Could models be any more divergent?

  169. Do the 18z and 06z runs of the ECMWF have less data inputs like the 18z and 06z runs of the GFS and NAM?

  173. I could be wrong.

    I think, at 500 mb, the now running 00z NAM´s southwest energy isn´t as buried or elongated westward as it was on the 18z NAM.

    1. Yes, just looking now around Arkansas at same comparable hours and the trof is deeper as lower 500 mb heights are further south.

      I´m only going back and forth between 18z and 00z and not comparing to this morning´s 12z.

    2. The low looks as though it’s much closer to FL than 18z run. Definitely seems like a much better position

      1. yes, well the trof to its west is deeper and thus the flow is more SSW aloft instead of SW or even WSW on the 18z.

        Southern extent of trof looking so much better compared to 18z with every passing 3 hr panel that comes in.

  175. The difference between the 0z and 18z runs at hour 54 is comical. Hundreds of miles apart. It’s clear the 18z was a hiccup run.

    This is going to be big again.

    1. Could be a game changer especially since the Euro looks more favorable once again. So much for the trend. Hehe

  176. I give this a 50/50 chance to be an epic run.

    54 hrs and the trof is really deep and headed towards closing off.

        1. I know. I’m getting neck pain. I don’t know which way to turn anymore! Yet, this is what makes a pending potential blockbuster so exciting.

  180. Yeah the NAM is stalling and deepening the low off the outer banks and down to 981mb. It has slowed everything way down vs 12z.

    1. I was talking to Hadi about Pivitol. I finally discovered their “hobbyist” subscription. SHORT money at $10 per month. Booted my Sirius subscription in lieu. I love “Yacht Rock” and all but what’s better than more functionality for model torture.

  185. 12-20 inches from Worcester to the canal on that run. That’s more in line with the Euro. I’ll take it.

  187. Ryan Hanrahan on the NAM run on the American weather forum:

    Well that’s a weird evolution but damn close to a monster hit in SNE.

  190. Great improvement clearly from the 18z run. That 500mb on most of the models should have it tucked closer. I think this comes more west tomorrow and we end up with a near benchmark track.

    This will be a massive system for costal areas and a very good system out to Worcester county. Let’s not forget ratios, easily 15:1 for the Boston area and maybe closer to 20:1 for areas west if the city. The offshore track has its advantages.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2022012700&fh=84&r=us_state_ne_s&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

      1. I hear ya. I am hoping we can get everyone double digit snows. But clearly the best chance is for costal locations.

  191. Based on recent events I’ll just stick with the waiting until tomorrow’s update for #’s. I want the entire 00z suite including ECMWF.

  193. Million dollar question, does the NWS convert that to a Blizzard Warning. That final track is essential to making that happen with the winds.

  194. At a pressure between 965 to 975 mb, I wish there was some way to bring the snows further west without bringing the low a lot further west.

    I mean, over the benchmark and the coast´s least concern is how much snow there will be.

    1. Remember that storm 600 miles away a few years back. Precip shield should be very expansive. I think TK eluded to this earlier.

  197. Reading ICON stalling, not good for the coast. I think we will see a shift back to a BM track and widespread 12-20 inches with spots closing in on 24+.

    I will have my numbers first thing in the morning. Let run a fun contest. How about we guess these cities:

    Boston
    Worcester
    New York
    Concord
    Falmouth
    Springfield.

      1. I can only keep track if they are on contest page. Which reminds me, I haven’t recorded the overall contest. Will do that tomorrow too

  199. Great 00z suite so far. Windshield wiper effect in full force here. Still would like to see another tick or two west but great improvement overall and there is still time for more adjustments.

  207. GFS on an island on it’s own at this point. We’ve seen this before over the years with the GFS and generally it caves.

    All systems go.

    1. There is some potential validity to that solution just as much as the ones to the west. This one is not going to really focus until inside 48 hours. It happens.

    2. Low tracks over the Outer Cape and flips the Cape to mix/rain. Big snows for everyone else out to the NYS line.

  209. Talk about whiplash!!

    And yup, I remember that storm that was 600 miles out. I have never really gotten over how amazing that was!

  211. Regardless of how much snow falls, by next weekend it could very well be long gone. Pete has 50+ with some rain for next Wednesday-Friday then chilly again on his 10-day forecast.

  215. Feeling much better tonight as long as the Euro holds serve at 1AM. Still need the GFS to come around though. Would have felt more confident if we had at least started to see a shift west in the 00z GEFS ensembles but no dice (yet).

  217. I was thinking about the definitions of light, moderate, major, blockbuster etc. There are really no official definitions for this. In terms of snowfall, it’s a matter of opinion and also a function of geography.

    Personally, I used to think 1-3 was light, 3-6 was moderate, 6-12 was major, and 12+ was the start of your blockbusters, but if you think about it, a 1-3 inch snowstorm can be a major snowstorm if it were to occur in Atlanta GA, and there are a host of other aspects of weather that can go into determining this. So it’s basically not that helpful to try to fit these events into neat little envelopes. 🙂

  221. 00z Euro holds serve, perhaps a tick SE with the heavier totals but its squarely with all the other models in the “non-GFS” camp right now.

    00z Euro 10:1 Snow:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2022_01/101.png.868486ea0887b7e8dd70664521fbb547.png

    00z Euro Kuchera Snow:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2022_01/kuchie.png.466cb871fa7deffb08f88a0bc83d36bd.png

    I’d probably split the difference but either way thats a big dump for E MA, especially south of Boston.

  222. I’ll have numbers in my blog post tomorrow afternoon, but for the forecasts I’m writing for clients tonight, the numbers I came up with are very similar to what the NBM is showing,

        2. Thanks SAK. So you’re vowing with a light to moderate event for eastern sections with virtually nothing elsewhere?

  224. good news is …. we can use Water Vapor satellite loop later today to get an idea what the energy in the southwest/southern plains is doing at that crucial location.

    Then try to see if it looks like the GFS or some of the other models.

  226. 6z HRRR, I think, handles the energy more similar to the GFS and as a result, well, its 48 hr projected sfc map looks east

    I give the GFS solution equal odds.

    I think a small piece of that energy lagging could easily happen.

    Onto the 12z runs

  228. Good morning. Things looking on track. Love the 06z NAM become vertically stacked. Euro looks great. GFS clearly needs to see a therapist :). It’s got issues to resolve.

    All system go. My range is going to be 12-18 and a few packets in heavier bands close to 2 feet. The coast especially vulnerable places like Hull and Situate should be preparing.

  229. While being distracted by the models, I lost track of how damn cold it is out this morning. My weather station is -7.4. Brrrr

  232. I expet the GFS to come around for the 12z run. I have it on good authority that the enema administered to the GFS has been successful in eliminating t’s major constipation issue. All is back in order.

Comments are closed.