Thursday January 27 2022 Forecast (7:38AM)

570 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 27-31)

Low temperatures at dawn range from just below zero to the lower 20s, coldest spots being in north central MA and southwestern NH, warmest being over Cape Cod. This is typical for a mid winter morning in SNE. We’ll enjoy a sunny day today but it will be pretty cold, however with light wind. Clouds will move in tonight ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the west, and this boundary will be in the region on Friday with a mostly cloudy sky and the chance of a few snow showers, but nothing impactful. As this is going on we’ll start to see a storm system take shape off the US Southeast Coast. We’ve seen (and continue to see) many of the same typical model antics leading up to this thing over the last few days, but sorting through all of that I’ve come up the following. The storm’s track will be offshore, but exactly how far offshore is still a little bit of a mystery. However, I feel it will be close enough to give the entire WHW forecast area a significant snowfall starting late Friday night / early Saturday morning, and tapering off during Saturday night. The storm will also produce a lot of wind and cause coastal flooding especially around the times of high tide Saturday morning and evening as tides will also be astronomically high. Sunday will feature dry weather with sunshine and chilly air, but a good day for post-storm cleanup, and on the current track I expect a generally lower water content snowfall for most of the region which helps with cleanup as you don’t have waterlogged snow to deal with. Fair and chilly weather will continue Monday as high pressure controls to close January.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures steady 22-29 evening, rising slightly overnight. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 30-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arriving overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast. Snow. Blowing and drifting snow. Significant snow accumulation expected. Highs 18-25 except 25-32 South Shore to Cape Cod. Wind NE 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow tapering off. Total snow accumulation 8-15 inches with a couple bands or areas above 15 inches favoring areas east of I-95. Blowing and drifting snow likely. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 2-9. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

Milder weather the first few days of February along with a chance of a couple rounds of rain shower activity especially around February 4. Turning colder at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

Overall milder pattern, but may start out on the cold side first with a snow/rain threat as we transition back to milder again.

570 thoughts on “Thursday January 27 2022 Forecast (7:38AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    So, do you think the GFS will come around?

    How do you mets deal with this model
    mayhem???

    looking at all of the models, especially 500 mb, it looks to me that it has to track more west than gfs is depicting.

    It would be most disappointing if the gfs verified.

    2. Good question JPD. I do wish the general public saw what we have seen here thanks to posting of model links by you and mark and so many others.

  9. Thru to hr 18 or so on HRRR

    Up by James bay, that trof seems way out of phase with the southern energy.

    But, I feel like there’s another trof/disturbance around southern Minnesota, western Iowa, eastern Nebraska that it could be more lined up with.

    Or I could be 100% wrong too, LOL

  13. Now at hr 26, I see the trof just west of Chicago.

    If one drew a best fit line through the center, from northeast to southwest, then as one gets to Texas, the southern end appears to line up just west of the best fit line. So, a little off I think from phasing.

    1. at hour 29, it looks like it is beginning to phase to me. I am no expert on this, but that’s what it looks like to me.

      2. Count me in for lacking expertise too 🙂 🙂 🙂

        My interpretation is they are not as aligned as one would want for a big hit.

  15. For Senor_Bisquick

    I was thinking about your question on FB about good groups. If you have an interest in our area wildlife, a really great group is Wildlife of Worcester County. It does extend beyond Worcester cty The photos are amazing. Folks are ALWAYS respectful and happy to answer questions. If you want to join, please tell John I recommended the group.

    https://www.facebook.com/groups/777912432353458/?ref=share

    1. Thank you, I appreciate your followup! I hike at least an hour a day, so this is definitely up my alley.

      1. John is the moderator. He is a wonderful person and exceptional photographer. He took an amazing photo of the full moon on the night my son was married and then he and his wife helped put the photo with wording for a Christmas gift for my son and DIL

        The creatures he and others find are amazing. I never knew of many of the bird species and am amazed that they are right in this area

  16. Isn’t one of the GFS bias to overdo northern stream energy? Would that be coming into play here at all?

  17. Just happened to get first block off, but class arriving soon. 🙂

    I’m switching to camp GFS or something a lot closer to it.

    Like a blend of 75% GFS and 25% others.

    3-6 out to 128, 4-8 along the coast, 6-10 outer arm of Cape and thank goodness, strongest winds out over the ocean and more northerly with a further offshore track.

    Little or nothing Providence to Worcester, points west

  18. Yeah I am not with you in this one Tom. 12-18 widespread. Euro backed off slightly(it was too amped) and is now in-line with others.

  19. Ok, we have the 12Z HRRR out to 48 hours.

    Here is the surface. Surface low looks too far off shore to me.

    https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2022012712/048/ref1km_ptype.conus.png

    Here is the 500 mb chart. Looks nice, but don’t know the configuration of the 300 mb and 200 mb charts. This could easily stay mostly off shore, or is the 200 mb is sharp enough,
    it could nail us still. Looking at NCEP at 40 hours, looks like nice curvature at 250mb. So perhaps there is still hope with this.

    https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2022012712/048/500wh.conus.png

    HRRR 250 mb chart T HR 40

    https://ibb.co/qCD87nk

  21. Thanks, TK.

    I have no clue what will happen, but I’m not liking the lack of consistency this close to the action.

    Regardless, it’s a beautiful day on tap. We’ve been blessed with so many this month of January. I call this a `classic’ January. Best one I’ve experienced in many years. It’s too bad I’m homebound this week, but at least I can see the bright sunshine from my windows.

  22. Thanks TK.

    This was the 6z Euro 10:1 Snowmap:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2022_01/ecmwf-deterministic-neng-total_snow_10to1-3547600.png.49c2b6cb673ce7f88b3694146f74705a.png

    Definitely ticked back southeast a bit and a little weaker. Thats two subtle ticks southeast since the 18z run yesterday. Hopefully we can reverse that today and it doesnt meet the GFS in the middle.

    The 0z UKMET, 0z CMC, and 6z NAM were sizable hits for the entire region but a GFS/Euro blend would end up a SE MA special.

  24. Thank you Mark. Extremely disappointed in the 6Z Euro. I was expected so much more from that. Here go!

    1. I read 9.7. Should have looked closer and reminded myself
      it Was 10:1 and adjust accordingly. I retract the statement. 🙂

    1. Then it resolves to the one farther SW, which is Good.
      This is beginning to shape up as a MONSTER hit. Keep it coming NAM!

  35. Not sure we scale it back by 75% if it stalls as depicted. We’ve done this before and got burned both ways.

    1. Looks like about 18″ for me in CT.

      I’ll assume it’s pretty significantly overcooked and would happily take half of that.

  39. It actually moved slightly east from 6z run, trying to figure out the two L’s and their placement. It’s game on for coastal folks, no question in my mind (sorry Tom). Interior folks it’s going to come down to a nowcasting situation

    1. I know. Having browser issues and forced to use
      Firefox which will not allow me to get the link. I was able to use
      EDGE for a bit and thus posted some links, but then it crapped out on me and had to use Firefox again.

      I’ll try edge again soon.

        1. Yes its still snowing on both at 60 hours but comparing the snow totals on the two at that point in time, the 3km NAM is much less robust.

  43. So the NAM goes from 0 to 30+ inches of snow at Boston in 3 runs.

    There’s a message there.
    Already seen people out there who said it sucked yesterday say this is what’s going to happen now. This is how you separate people who “forecast” what they want to happen versus people who actually try to make an accurate forecast. 😉

    2. It is also how you separate the general public between who hears the words possible or changing situation and those who do hear the words. The latter group takes time to prepare yet continues to watch. The former, as my daughter said this AM when I was bemoaning fallout for Mets, will criticize loudly no matter the outcome. Nothing new. Sadly, they just get a voice from behind the anonymity of their keyboards. The tail continues to wag the dog.

  44. For sure TK, I for one just do it for the fun of it 🙂

    I see folks on social media losing their minds over this run. I am still sticking with what I had yesterday. 12-18 and a few spots closer to 2 feet depending on banding.

  46. Also I am not seeing this warm up for February except for a few days. The GFS has another system in the makings after next week’s warm up.

  47. Something just doesn’t smell right. Seems like a southeast MA special. Best chance of a foot or more Boston points south and East.

    South Shore to the canal – 12+
    Boston south and west to providence – 6-12
    128-495 – 4-8
    495-91 – 3-6
    Virtually nothing outside of I91

    1. Yeah going to respectfully disagree on this one. It’s for sure an eastern mass special, but this thing will tug west and deliver a lot more than 3-6 for 495-91 belt.

      1. Exactly, fits well into my 12-18 range. We have to keep an eye on those deformation bands, get one of those for a few hours and you get 2-3 inches per hour.

  50. I can’t hop aboard the snow train with confidence just yet unless the GFS comes around on consecutive runs. I’m not too concerned about the HRRR as its performance has been poor. I hardly pay mind to that particular model. However, this wouldn’t be the first time the GFS trumps the other models and I have seen too many storms move a tick East toll and disappoint. It’s still a viable option and cannot be entirely dismissed.

  51. Thanks, TK!

    Thanks to you all for your analysis, opinion and great sense of humor throughout the last couple of crazy days!!! Someone posted yesterday that the anticipation of extreme weather is as or more fun than the event itself! I agree! 🙂

    I see that a Bernie Raynoism (“windshield wiper effect”) has made it to the NWS lexicon:

    After a jog east with the 12Z/18Z guidance yesterday, this evening`s
    00Z models have ticked back west; a windshield wiper effect we often
    see in computer models leading up to these events and why you don`t
    want to hang your hat on one deterministic model run.

  52. Hey Tom:

    I’ll bring the potato salad if you bring the cole slaw to the last day of school on the Fourth of July! We already have three days to make up! 🙂

    1. Ugh…. I asked before and probably missed the answer. I thought contracts specified no school for teachers after June 30??

      1. That is true! I am teasing. Any no-school days have to be tacked onto the end of the school year. Don’t forget Juneteenth (Monday, June 20 ~ observed) is now an official state holiday with no school already. Our last day of school now is June 23. It was June 17.

      2. From what I’ve always understood, it has to do with the end of the fiscal year. It becomes difficult to pay teachers out of the previous year’s budget after July 1. In Sutton’s case, I think it would take a Town Meeting vote to move the money around.

  53. From JR

    Intense snows still on tap for Saturday…one signal often seen in these Bomb Cyclones..localized very heavy snow bands (2-3″ per hour) and on either side of them..only flurries…one of the models seeing this…such detail in the short range models nowadays

  54. Thanks, SAK, for sharing all-time Boston snows the other day.
    Here are my notes for Providence and Taunton/Norton (BOX)

    Taunton-KBOX (Records since 1996)

    December 5-7, 2003 25.9″

    March 31-April 1, 1997 23.3″

    February 8-9, 2013 22.7″

    January 26-28, 2015 20.8″

    March 7-8, 2013 19.7″

    January 22-23, 2005 18.0″

    February 17-18, 2003 17.8″

    December 26-27, 2010 17.5″

    December 19-20, 2009 14.4″

    February 14-15, 2015 14.1″

    February 7-9, 2015 14.0″

    January 12, 2009 13.9″

    January 7, 2017 12.9”

    February 9, 2017 12.4”

    December 19-20, 2008 11.9″

    February 2-3, 2015 11.2″

    January 20-21, 2001 10.3″

    Providence (Records since 1905)

    February 6-7, 1978 28.6″

    January 22-23, 2005 23.4″

    January 7-8, 1996 22.8″

    January 26-28, 2015 19.1″

    February 14-16, 1962 18.9″

    February 4, 1961 18.3″

    February 8-9, 2013 18.0″

    March 31-April 1, 1997 18.0″

    March 3-5, 1960 17.7″

    December 5-7, 2003 17.0″

    January 27-29, 1943 16.0″

    December 19-20, 2009 16.0″

    February 24-27, 1969 15.9″

    February 17-18, 2003 15.0″

    March 19, 1956 14.7″

    1. Providence is one of the cities I track, and my list matches this with 1 exception – I have 14.8″, not 15.9″ for the February 1969 storm.

      1. Thank you, SAK! I will fix. The City of Taunton’s official station, prior to 1996, was the Taunton Water Works where official records go back to the late-19th century.

    1. But improved, it’s a good run for inside 95. Much better than previous ones. It’s starting to move slowly.

  60. In true Tom Brady fashion, “Let’s Go!!!!”

    All systems go IMO. I really like the NWS snow map, maybe shave a few inches to the west but all in all pretty good.

      1. Let’s just make sure it doesn’t puke all over itself again on the next run after consuming those solids!

            1. LOL !

              This director, I think, has a new movie due out, moon-fall.

              Another realistic movie, in this one, the moon heads towards colliding with earth.

  64. To clarify, focus on the upper end of my range and the probable banding for eastern MA. The lower side of that range is for points west.

  67. Thanks TK.

    I’d be a bit cautious with “locking it in” at this stage. Much of the hi res guidance (HRRR, AWR, FV3, RAP), granted at the edge of their range, would support very little impact outside of the immediate coast and especially Cape. Outside of the GFS, there’s been a decided east trend in most of the other 12z runs as well (CMC/RGEM, UKMET). I suspect the Euro follows with an east jump.

    Still think the pattern supports a good hit at least in eastern MA, but much west of their (i.e. Worcester west and southwest) increasingly looks out of luck.

  68. FWIW, the Canadian did shift SE from its 0Z run which was over Cape Cod. Still good for eastern areas but less snow in western areas. Still a foot plus though out this way.

    UKMET (which was also over the Cape at 0z) has made a huge shift southeast as well.

  71. For the CT folks on the blog (and probably the central MA folks directly north of us as well)……

    This post from Ryan Hanrahan on the American Wx forum:

    Seems like the goal posts are narrowing now. I think getting >12″ here is starting to get pretty tough. We’re seeing a tick east with the hugged solutions and a tick west with the OTS ones.

    I like 6-12″ for HVN/HFD to the RI border for now.

    1. Still seems a bit high to me out there, unfortunately. Models are trying to converge on a solution outside of the BM.

  72. From this morning’s NWS discussion:

    Friday night through Saturday night…

    ***A Strong Winter Storm will impact southern New England Saturday***

    After a jog east with the 12Z/18Z guidance yesterday, this evening`s
    00Z models have ticked back west; a windshield wiper effect we often
    see in computer models leading up to these events and why you don`t
    want to hang your hat on one deterministic model run. This remains a
    decidedly chaotic forecast with decent run-to-run consistency in
    some models/ensembles, but large model-to-model discrepancies.
    One of the biggest struggles is how to resolve the upper air
    pattern with northern and southern stream energy that may phase
    leading to a more volatile system. The biggest outlier is the
    GFS which continues to depict a track well southeast of the
    40/70 benchmark, while the NAM/Canadian/ECMWF are further
    northwest (if much slower, in the NAM`s case). For now the
    forecast continues to go with a blend of guidance, more or less
    in line with the ECMWF run which is a compromise between the GFS
    east and UKMET west. Ultimately the evolution of the parent 500
    mb trough that digs into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys Friday
    night and Saturday will help to determine the track of the
    surface low. Confidence is high that this low will strengthen
    rapidly as it moves up the east coast, likely undergoing
    bombogenesis, meaning its central pressure drops at least 24 mb
    in 24 hours. This will bring the threat for significant snow,
    potentially damaging winds, and coastal flooding.

    Thinking this morning is that the significant snowfall threat will
    be centered over southeast Massachusetts, diminishing to the
    northwest. Given QPF of nearly 1.5 inches toward eastern MA and a
    cold column leading to snow-to-liquid ratios greater than 10:1,
    snowfall totals of 12 to 18 inches are possible; greater beneath any
    deformation band that sets up somewhere northwest of the low. A
    Winter Storm Watch has been issued for eastern and central MA as
    well as eastern CT; this is where we have the highest confidence of
    significant snowfall.

  73. If this falls apart, there’s always Sunday February 6th for building anticipation leading to eventual mass disappointment.

  74. Pattern looks decent to me as we head into February (aside from the brief warmup/rain event late next week). Cold reloads and a couple winter storm threats follow, beginning with next weekend.

    Jim Cantore
    @JimCantore
    1h

    And for those that are feeling left out with our pending weekend storm, don’t you worry, we have a very energetic and progressive pattern heading into February. Enjoy the ride!

    I don’t like upcoming pattern for western precipitation.

    https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1486715546573836292?s=20

      1. I’m always looking ahead….can never get enough. And its looking more and more like I am not going to get enough to satisfy me with this one. 🙂

  75. On a more serious note, looking at the dewpoint projections

    the western precip shield, wherever it gets to, is going to have to overcome a lot of initial dry air and constantly advecting in dry air, since the offshore track will keep the flow more northerly vs northeasterly.

  76. Things move both ways, let’s see how it shakes out. I certainly feel better being in Boston than Worcester for this one. Not usually the case that’s for sure

  78. Thanks WxW! I have the same concern. Thankfully I have tomorrow’s update to address / adjust this if need be.

  80. I literally burst out laughing at the Kuchera 30+.
    The 12km NAM, to use an expression often used by Dave: WHAT A JOKE!

    (Thanks, JPD.) 😀

    1. 🙂
      But we had a 2nd model join the club, the CMC/GDPS
      Double your pleasure, double your fun. 🙂

      How can 2 models have 30 inches and yet another has 10 or less and others are in the middle. Seems like too much disparity to me.

      Something is up.

      Watch it end up a total MISS OTS.

  81. Why can’t we get an approaching storm that is pretty clear.

    I Loved Dr. Stupids animated gif earlier.

    Yes No Maybe, I DUNNO!!!

    1. What are your western lines of demarcation for “SE MA?” Seems to be different person to person. Is it I-95 between PVD and BOS?

        1. Tom & I are still looking to get a decent hit here south of Boston . I’ve been getting ready & bringing a lot of wood In to keep it dry .

    2. Yep liking my numbers too. Eastern Mass special. Watch where those deformation bands set up. There will be winners and losers.

  83. Saw this tweet and can’t agree more.

    Note guys, you’ll see a lot of nonsense in the next 24 hours about models shifting left, right, north and south. Ignore the noise. That shifting is the models handling convective feedback. The key is that 500 MB low formation. That is all that matters to me with these models.

        1. Not sure who that is.
          I’ll check later.

          Just need to look at the whole picture. 500 is a big part, but not nearly all.

  84. Trending east might come back west a little. I’m down here near PVD Airport. Hopefully it trends east will save a lot on snow removal.

  88. Mark mentions several February snow threats. He also alludes to the fact that while milder than we’ve been in recent weeks, the indications are that early to mid February will do February things and won’t be a torch.

    Also, the cold and dense snow pack across central and most of southern Canada aren’t going away any time soon. This will impact our weather in February and possibly March as well. Of course, annoyingly, it could also impact our weather right into April. Who knows.

  90. So, did anyone else notice that on the 384 hour, the GFS has a 1069mb high over central Quebec? That would shatter pressure records all across eastern Canada and the Northeast US.

    Just one more reason to think that the GFS has lost its marbles.

  94. As a novice, the variations among model tracks and amounts from run-to-run, this time around, seem baffling to me and maybe not even one of them has the real or maybe even near-real solution. Friends and family are asking what I think. My response is that 1) my brain is “mush” and 2) I’ll get back to them around noon Friday. Not that we’ll know lots more by then but I am hoping we do.

    1. Exactly why I get pissy when nws or any of our Mets are criticized. Thanks to the keyboard warriors out there, it is a lose lose situation.

    1. I feel like we all have a bad case of “modelitis”. Maybe we will know more when phasing starts but I remain skeptical. To add to it, I have heard TV mets announce very different start times over the past 2 days. I swear I heard one say around midnight and another say we should start seeing flakes around 10 AM.

  98. So let’s see, that makes 3 models calling for 30-35 inches!
    NAM,CMC and Now the EURO. Can that totally be tossed?

    This storm could be epic or a complete bust!

    Unbelievable!!!!

    2. Therein lies the problem . We are probably 35 hours out from something and we don’t know what the something is!

  99. How did the old timers, as Don Kent, seem to be right a lot without all the data we have today. It’s like the more info we get the tougher it is to forecast?

    2. Kent and Copeland didn’t suffer from data overload. We have superior tools today but the tools we have do not necessarily serve us well 100% of the time.

  100. Looking at the EURO qpf from Pivotal, it has 2.51 inches
    for Boston.

    We know the ration is going to be higher than 10:1.
    For fun, let’s take some average ratios and see how much
    it would be:

    11:1 27.6 inches
    12:1 30.12
    13:1 32.63
    14:1 35.14
    15:1 37.65

    20:1 50.2

    Now I through the 20:1 just for fun. According to that F5 MAP it looks like they are using the 12:1 to 14:1 as the ratio, Which seems reasonable to me.

  101. Reading from a few Mets online that the issue with the GFS is that it really matches fairly close to the Euro aloft and for some reason isn’t translating to the surface.

    1. On the 12Z runs, the Euro closed it off at hour 54, while the GFS not until hour 57. The NAM had it closed at 54 and even started at 51. CMC, same as name, closed at 54 and started at 51.

      Interesting

  104. Thanks, TK.

    I like looking at satellite photos. Sometimes, during hurricane season, I can tell if it might really hit, unless it’s really wobbling a lot. But with these storms, I am totally lost. I read all your comments re: models and other information that I don’t understand but I totally respect and admire. I took a look just now at the satellite of what was moving east from the mid-west; that small area almost off our coast just moving north-north east and then out to the east many clouds moving north w/ a bit to the east. I couldn’t guess at any of that – I guess it’s all going to come together at some point but where (here obviously, no miss I presume) but just how bad I can’t guess. I have to admire all of you who can make better guesses w/more knowledge and information. And time as things get together. Right now my guess(stupid, I know) is just snow tomorrow which is not the big deal and the major storm gives most snow to SE New England w/less inland. Just putting my 2 cents in and probably wrong!

  105. On the 18Z HRRR run, at 27 hours the 500 mb trough has sunk a little more South than the 12Z run. I am hoping this means more curvature and a little more Westward track. We shall see.

  107. Definitely sharper curvature on the 18z HRRR 500mb than there was on the 12Z. Good sign for storm to come a bit more West.

    Btw about 3 mb stronger on 18Z

      1. The 500 mb is almost going negative. This could still get sucked NW a bit and still deliver. Just too early to know for sure.

    1. Sure are some interesting tweets. Glad I finally figured how to use it when the PNW had the heat wave last summer

  109. I’ve mentioned this before but I will restate it here regarding the Kent / Copeland era. They really only went out 3 days. They weren’t even any 5-day forecast back then. The expectations were that day three was just kind of an approximation. The 5-day forecast showed up later in their careers and they adjusted to it but both of them admitted the dislike and the difficulty. You can figure out the rest of it from there. 🙂

  111. After review of ALL available 12z guidance, no changes to my #’s and I generally agree with NWS update.

    I have 20 as my top, but 20, 24, not a huge difference. I have left room for tweaks before tomorrow morning’s update which will still be just under 24 hours before we’re underway. 🙂

    I hope everybody is having fun doing the model thing. I’m having fun watching JPD ride his modelcoaster. 😉

    Off to find out which media outlet just left me a voicemail this time… 😉

    1. I second watching our friend JpDave.

      I feel for him with the models that show a graze or moderate impact.

  112. Maybe it’s me, but I love the dispersion of the EPS. Much more representative of all the reasonable options on the table, as opposed to the GEFS which is, as it often has been, laughably underdispersive for a 20+ member ensemble.

    On the other hand, the consistency of the operational GFS has been wonderful. I’d much rather have a deterministic model consistent, even if wrong, then all over the map like all the others has been. So if you want to pay attention to any of the global models at this stage in the game, pay attention to that one 🙂

  113. https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1486785143876591616
    I like to stick at looking at the 00z & 12z suites of the models, been rather consistent with the 500Vorticity placement of the troughs. Difference is strength of the trough, though minor I feel like is the main difference between the GFS/EURO.
    I could see this storm being a big storm for eastern New England or almost nothin with us not getting a real solid idea until tonight or tomorrow morning.
    No matter though fun to track. I would mention that if the euro is correct, many of those below average snowfall forecasts for Boston could end up being low.

    1. When they are sure it won´t be partly sunny with a gusty north breeze Saturday and only needing a winter weather advisory for Nantucket. (I´m half serious)

  115. Doesn´t this winter torture of storm track just want you to make you wish it was summer year round ?

    There is definite interest, but not this level of passion for tracking hurricanes.

    2. Could it be we get less hurricanes here than snowstorms? I don’t know. I prefer summer and watching the radar for thunderstorms. And as I previously said I Iike looking at satellite images. I think it’s a combination of fun and frustration trying to figure out how much snow; where the most snow will be, etc. I am pretty sure for one thing. We’ll know by Sunday!

  117. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    The 18z looks like the biggest hit to date.

    Look at the winds and where the heavy snow gets to.

  119. If the 18Z NAM Kuchera can’t convince anyone how poor a tool this is, they’re officially beyond help. 😉

    From zero to 42+ in 24 hours (5 model runs).

      1. As I always look for a great storm…Nobody wants to see a major catastrophe here so thank God its not reliable.

        1. 957mb just east of ACK would be devastating for the east coast of MA.

          Fortunately this is weather fiction at its finest.

      1. We can have a major storm cleaned up at the hospital & have it looked like it never even snowed in no time .

    2. Sure fun to look at but ain’t happening. I think SAK and TK’s numbers are more in line with reality. I’m guessing a tad less than what they are predicting. Boy, do I hope I’m wrong. Fairly soon, the models won’t be helpful anymore – not that they have been to this point 🙂

      2. The NAM NEST is a “model within a model”. It has a smaller domain than the NAM, but uses initial conditions based on the NAM. From there it basically downscales them using a much higher resolution and more sophisticated computing system than what the regular NAM uses. It’s much more able to “see” small scale features like banding and convection that a lower resolution model like the NAM can’t.

        Here is it’s 18z snow map. A wee bit different than the “other” NAM:

        https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc&rh=2022012718&fh=60&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

        1. Amazing to see the regular NAM and 3km NAM so ridiculously far apart. The 3km actually looks LESS robust and further east than 12z.

    1. Is it the QPF that’s not realistic from this output? It is higher than I’ve been seeing but not by much.

  126. None of the higher resolution meso-scale models are enthused with this storm right now (HRRR, ARW, 3km NAM, RAP, etc). Red flag indeed.

  127. Ace – to answer your question, my snowfall map would look very much like the NAM 3km. Sharp cut off on the northwestern periphery of the envelope of precipitation shield. I think a major snow storm is likely from Boston, metrowest, along the I95 corridor, south and East. Big bust potential north and west of 128 in my mind.

  128. Conversation between Ryan Hanrahan and Scott Nogueira on the American Wx Forum a few moments ago:

    Ryan: I don’t think a lot of people realize how unusually sensitive this forecast is to fairly small changes in the evolution. The fact that all of the mesoscale models are way out there and the EPS distribution has grown quite a bit from 0z to 12z is a pretty big red flag.

    I’d hedge toward a bigger solution but man there’s a lot that’s pretty weird about this one.

    Scott: Yeah, even moreso than normal. I get it. I would have thought the mesos would be the one to wrap this over my house, but the opposite is true.

    Ryan: Exactly. There’s something weird going on. The fact that 30% of the Euro Ens members don’t even give Boston 6″ shows that this setup is really freaking challenging.

    2. Way too aggressive but it’s so pretty to look at. Big potential for their forecasts to bust. I really feel for all the Mets. Not an easy forecast and could go either way or somewhere in the middle.

  131. Hello NWS

    Do want to briefly touch on the potential for exceptional to extreme
    snowfall rates. Both NAM and GFS Bufkit soundings show 80-90 units
    of omega coinciding with the favorable snow growth region. Given
    that a double barrel low could develop with the potential for an eye-
    like feature at some point, wherever the mesoscale snow band sets up
    could see 3 to even 4 inches per hour snowfall rates. With this
    forecast package, we have capped the totals at 24 inches. But if we
    get more confidence (especially if the GFS comes further west in
    line with the international guidance), the forecast amounts for
    southeastern MA could go up into the 30 to 36 inches range. And with
    the winds gusting over 50 to 60 mph and temps well below freezing,
    stay off the roads on Saturday if possible.

  132. Thank you Mark for the NAM update.

    I want to play the qpf game again.

    Best I can tell, the qpf map has 2.38 inches for boston.

    At 10:1., of course that is 23.8 inches

    Let’s use a reasonable ratio, say just 12:1, then that would equate to: 28.56 inches. Any higher ration tops 30 inches.

    Then it is NOT the Kuchera totals that are suspect, it has
    to be the QPF.

    The 3KM NAM only has 0.73 inch qpf for Boston.

    Now that is one hell of a difference! That is INSANE

    One of these models is clearly WRONG!

    The answer is probably in the middle. 12-18 inches sounds pretty good.

      1. Thanks Vicky. Looks like Harvey is all in. Even if it doesn’t verify, I respect him making a bold decision.

  135. Kuchera should generally do better than 10:1 in this event, especially in the sweet spot. I could buy an average ~15:1 ratio in southeast MA, which would be enough for some 30″+ pockets *if* a more western track verifies. The 3-4″/hr rates discussed by NWS Boston in the heaviest banding are totally reasonable.

    Be careful with Kuchera on the western edge though. Just because it’s cold doesn’t necessarily mean the ratios will be high. It may just mean small, withered snowflakes that struggle to pile up.

    1. Thanks Hadi. Common theme on all these, not much variation in the jackpot zones but lots on the western edge which I think is what’s still be to be determined.

    2. I’ve never been scooped by my own collage on the blog before. lol. I was busy posting it and replying to comments and finally got around to here. Haha. Where’d you find it? 🙂

  139. A little tongue of moisture has put some light snow showers into the South Coast / Fall River MA area. This is just a little moisture plume ahead of that cold front that SAK and I have been talking about for tomorrow. It’s completely unrelated to the upcoming storm threat.

    2. Those Kuchera #’s are too high.
      Better to use 10:1 then adjust to about 15:1 (see WxW’s comments earlier).

          2. Yes, don’t look at KUCHERA at all.
            Get the QPF or use the 10:1 (Same thing).
            And apply the 15:1 ratio.

            Been doing that all day.

    1. Certainly looking much better.

      Beginning to look like we are in for it big time!

      I would like to see this as Boston’s all time records largest snow storm. Likely will not happen, but one can dream.

  145. It was mentioned the other day but nothing since then. Thoughts on thunder snow with the current scenario?

  146. 12z GEFS is West as well, not surprisingly.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2022012718&fh=54

    There is also a cluster of members NW of the mean, implying this thing has some play to tick further west.

    Really would love to be in play to get into the outer band and have it pivot overhead. There is probably going to be a second jackpot area somewhere west where that happens. Very common with these types of storms to have a couple different bands set up with huge totals and a subsidence zone in between.

  147. Keep coming west Winter Storm Bobby. This is what our CBS station in CT is naming the storm. It has been doing this since the early 70s.

    1. Hahaha Bobby. What’s the next one, Cindy?

      Have you noticed that this useless practice of naming winter storms has resulted in pretty much ONE of them being remembered by name: Nemo. Gee I wonder why! 😉

      I’ll never agree with naming winter storms. What do you name a non low pressure warm front overrunning ice storm that causes millions of dollars in damage? Are they going to name fronts too? Oh wait, they already have names. Warm front, cold front, stationary front, occluded front.

      The practice of naming tropical (warm core) systems is a little more useful and it’s obvious why, but naming things that originate in the mid latitudes? Bad idea. It always was a bad idea and always will be a bad idea.

      Ok, rant over. 😉 Back to your regularly scheduled storm anticipating. 😉

  149. I have spent lots of time today reading the ups and downs of different runs etc and now have an estimate of 8-12 on the low end and 24 plus on the high side. Will there be a narrowing of estimates tomorrow or will it be trick or treat? I think I will see these maps in my sleep.

  150. So everyone has noticed the models with the BIG #’s, but other than WxW and myself, has anybody been following the higher res guidance (like what he mentioned above)? Can’t just ignore those. Everything has to be taken into account.

      1. Oh not at all. He has a legitimate thought process there that can very well take place. I don’t quite agree with it myself at this point.

        WxW pointed out earlier that he’d rather see a more consistent piece of guidance that didn’t quite have the right idea than models that jump all over the place run to run. The GFS wins that battle at least, if nothing else. It’s been very consistent and even when it shifted a bit today at 18z, it was rather subtle. That can’t be ignored completely.

        The higher res stuff has been fairly consistent with a SE leaning as well (not talking about the 12km NAM – that’s a piece of shit lately). Again, not saying these are the solution we are going to see, but they should be watched as well for trends.

        The conversation between the two mets (I forget their names) posted above tells you how complex this situation still is.

        Even if I don’t agree with Harvey’s mega bullseye, he made his best forecast and still has plenty of time to adjust if needed. This is what at least the folks on this blog understand (and hopefully many others). Sadly there will be others that would be ready to drag him down if that didn’t verify.

        Just saying we still have a little way to go, and we’re obviously in a situation where we will all need to be ready to fine-tune right up into the beginning of the event. 🙂

        1. Folks everywhere need to understand this. It was honestly what I was thinking when I read and the posted here his map

          Maybe repeat this at the top of each of your blogs for a while. Ya know I will remind folks

          “ Even if I don’t agree with Harvey’s mega bullseye, he made his best forecast and still has plenty of time to adjust if needed. This is what at least the folks on this blog understand (and hopefully many others). Sadly there will be others that would be ready to drag him down if that didn’t verify.”

        2. Thanks for the explanation, TK! Perfectly logical. If nothing else, this storm has been fun to track and has hopefully allowed most of us to deflect away from COVID associated challenges even if for brief period of time.

          1. I sure agree. Just look at the lack of comments on the covid side of this blog. It has been a well needed respite

  155. Are the Weather Gods listening to me and trying to do everything they can to move this storm system back west???

  156. For comparison, I caught a glimpse of Pete’s map. He has a much much smaller bullseye area than Harvey does (22-28) and it’s in a narrow band north of Boston. I believe this is based on their in-house guidance. For most of the metro area he had amounts in the 14-20 inch range.

  157. Harvey saying who knows this could be a Historical storm for Boston . He feels it’s game on & is very , very comfortable with the forecast he just gave . No hype just a straight forward we have a big one on the way straight through midnight Sunday morning .

    2. Brian is a good forecaster. He has been there since the mid 1990s. 22 was a longtime Weather Central client pre WSI purchase. 22 was one of the first adopters of using the precision microcast model animation on air, which was the Weather Central proprietary model and it was damn good for its time. It was a precursor for all the futurecast and model animation maps you see on air now.
      As for that map – 22 is in Springfield. The majority of their viewing audience is in the CT River Valley of MA. Springfield Amherst Northampton Greenfield. That map could very well verify there with adjustments for the hilltowns west and east. He is not concerned with the Berkshires (Albany) Connecticut (Hartford) Worcester (Boston)

      Even if the more ambitious model scenarios prove correct, there is an enormous amount of dry air that is going to need to be overcome in those valleys, then dry air advecting with a north wind is going to eat at this thing on that western edge and the benchmark track for a bombing low is a main ingredient for CT River Valley of MA shadow negating model accumulation amounts.

      1. You too Vicki! Neighbors and I already have a pool going on when we lose power. Living in the woods is peaceful and all but there is also peace in lights and heat 🙂

  162. I just read the term “cyclonic vorticity” in the Twitter responses to Bernie, and all I could think of was Daffy Duck.

    2. This shows that “two band” signature I was talking about earlier (and hoping for)…..heavy outer band further west, subsidence zone in between, and a second heavier band closer to the storm center. This is the setup we need out here for something special.

  171. if anything like this happens, I say we all get together somewhere for a class photo. God knows we’ve all been with each other on here long enough.

    2. One of the best pics are my brothers in lawn and beach chairs next to a 15 foot snowbank the day after the Blizzard of 1978 with bright sun shining.

      I’ll be digging out (pun kind of intended) all the classic memorable photos for next year’s 45th anniversary of the storm.

    1. Noting this is one of the only pieces of guidance left that leaves this thing as a single low center.

    2. He has called into the Weather Channel from his home near Philly and been put on the air live during snowstorms in the past.

  175. I´m going to name my next dog Kuchera.

    Then, we the dog gets in the trash, I can yell ¨damn Kuchera !¨

    3. Be careful! When I was in high school, my brother-in-law had a Great Dane named Macho. One night when I was visiting, the dog got loose in the very densely populated area where they lived. The two of us were running through the streets in the dark screaming “MACHO-MACHO!!”

      2. Hahahahahaha. And I think I’m going to be singing that song in my sleep now

        You brought an awesome memory for me

        When I was in high school, our older dog (Mimi) loved to go the cemetery with us because she could run. But she could barely hear. One day she got loose. To get her to come back, My mom stood outside and yelled “Mimi, do you want to go to the cemetery.”

  176. Marshfield´s DPW has a sign out on our local Rte 139

    ¨do you know where your emergency shelter is¨

    ¨prepare for flooding¨

    there was something else, but I can´t remember it.

      1. I was kinda taken by the wording, but the immediate coastal roads, the villages (like Brant Rock), they really can cause a threat to safety, as the water can get waist to chest deep in some specific locations.

        And then, any location without power faces a cold Monday and Tuesday with a very cold Sunday night and Monday night, so home temps could become too cold to remain.

          1. I haven´t, but thanks for the heads up. They do have a sense of warped humor with storm briefings sometimes.

            Good luck with the storm Sue and to everyone in your town.

  179. Ch. 4 has peak gusts of 55 MPH out to 495. I am wondering about the Natick area and thought this seemed high. Any ideas if this sounds accurate?

    1. I have a thought, but I don´t know if its correct.

      It will be very, very cold inland and I wonder if this could help stabilize things a bit to keep winds down some away from the coastline.

  180. TK – What are your thoughts about Ch. 10’s in-house guidance? Do you know what its track record for big storms is?

    1. I don’t really keep track, but I can’t remember any instances off the top of my head where it was outrageously bad. Maybe someone else has a better memory of it.

  181. 00z HRRR coming aboard.

    Same time vs 18z, more intense low and closer to the coast.

    Can I add 15¨ to my morning predictions ??

      1. Awesome. All the ducks are getting aligned.
        I want a historical snow for Boston. What are my chances?
        50-50, 25%, 10%, 5%. It isn’t 0 that’s for sure.

    1. I’ll say. Looking good.

      Now will the 0Z NAM do an about face or go Bonkers with
      some 40 inch totals???? he he he

      2. of course, with the closer HRRR track, the NAM is bound to track west of Boston and send 40 inches out to Burlington VT and Albany NY

  185. That snowfall thought I had this morning, I´ll already say it

    I was and will be wrong 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Extremely wrong, LOL !!!

  188. Clearly, the models are seeing earlier and better phasing.

    Big plus for widespread big snows ….

    But, with that earlier and better phasing, look at these pressure projections going lower and lower

    Bad bad bad news for the coastline.

      1. So is the 3km NAM.

        It has that not one center low or an elongated low, but its at a much lower pressure and closer to the coast.

  192. I Press The Like Button
    From Ryan Hanrahan
    Snow totals are going up at 11. We’re getting new information now and will have more in a bit. Stay tuned

  193. I’m interested to see the difference between 12km & 3km 00z NAM. First time the NAM has changed outer to middle of Cape Cod to rain (12km).

  196. 3km NAM already has Providence at 15z (10am) Saturday at the same amount it had for the entire last run.

  197. Huge banding signatures on the NAM as to be expected from a storm this powerful. You get under one and you are snowing 3-4″ per hour while in between bands in the subsidence zones you have flurries.

    Would be a crazy dispersion of snow totals depending on where those bands set up.

      1. That’s subsidence between two heavy snow bands….an area of drying air and lighter snow.

        There will definitely be banding in this setup resulting in haves and have nots.

    1. That is a scary look. But it is the NAM and only one model run. And its notorious for these types of overamped runs.

  201. Mark I think I last saw a NAM run like that was just prior to the blizzard of 2013. Even if you cut those NAM totals in half as the NAM over does snowfall its still over a foot of snow for all of CT.

      1. What do you think 1.8″ QPF equates to for snow in CT if this were to verify? This is likely 15:1 stuff…..it would end up much closer to Kuchera than 10:1.

        Or do you think the QPF these models are spitting out is overcooked?

        1. My inkling is that this particular NAM is producing more precipitation on its simulation than we will actually see.

          Ironically the FV3 is far lighter and indicates the dry air issue that WxWatcher spoke of earlier. That has been a pretty consistent feature of that piece of guidance.

          1. Yes too robust and too far west, likely. But even if we cut the QPF by a third, that’s still a boatload of snow.

  202. The Jan 4, 2018 blizzard passed us by at 963 mb, I believe.

    I don´t remember if it did about a 6 hr stall or loop, but I do remember it had a +4 ft storm surge.

    Water rescues were needed in Marshfield.

    Please, I hope what might be a similar surge happens sometime in the 1-5pm time frame, 2 hrs either side of low tide.

    Cape Cod Bayside, if that wind then goes north is going to get all that water piled into the bay for the evening 9pm tide.

      2. They have been utilizing them for quite a while now in winter storms to gather as much info as possible. I think it’s a great practice. 🙂

  207. NWS Boston
    @NWSBoston

    [9:15 pm] Tonight’s 00z weather models, there were 9 #winter storm recon dropsondes courtesy of the USAF over the western Atlantic. The purpose, to better capture initial conditions that may influence the northeast winter storm Fri night/Sat. #MAwx #RIwx #CTwx #BombCyclone

        1. It’s ok Tom I’ll be there as I’m sitting this one out . My only issue is leaving the hospital Saturday am after shift to head home .

    1. Thanks, Mark. Hope you get some sleep. You have been sharing great info day and night. Thank you. And thanks to all who have shared updates and well reasoned explanations

    1. CAUTION on that Snowmap posted above….it appears to be screwed up.

      00z UKMET QPF is 2.2″ QPF in Boston and 1.1″ back to Hartford. This would equate to 15″+ in Hartford and 25-30″ in Boston. Snowmap looks way low.

        2. Ahhh so you did. I had copied the blog early am and sent to son when it still said 12-19. With all the comments, I hadn’t noticed an update. I thought my new station was off when it dropped to 13 and then when I looked a short time later it was in the 20s

  224. Holy crap. Hadn’t perused the comments since mid afternoon, it’s changed a bit! Looks like my Toro battery powered snow blower will be tested! Glad I have 3 batteries!
    Thanks for all the great updates.
    Tom

  225. NAM / ECMWF vs everyone else now. Where have we seen that before?

    Secondary battle: Kuchera vs reality.

    Tomer Burg Tweet: “While we talk about snow ratios, I’m going to add my *VERY STRONG* warning to avoid using Kuchera ratios. These only use a single variable – max 1000-500mb temps – and don’t factor in dynamic factors that affect snow growth. They will especially perform poorly well inland.”

    Burg holds a masters degree in atmospheric science from Albany SUNY and is currently working on his PhD in meteorology at University of Oklahoma.

    No, we’re not going to get a widespread 24-40 inches of snow. Not happening.

  226. 00z Euro with another absolute CRUSH job, especially for eastern MA.

    Sat 1PM Surface Map:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2022012800&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    10:1 Snowmap with 12″ Hartford, 20″ Worcester and Providence, and 24″ Boston (adjust up for ratios):

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022012800&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera Snowmap for fun (and with lots of disclaimers)…

    3-4 FEET Eastern MA
    2-3 FEET Worcester County and eastern CT
    1-2 FEET western CT and MA

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2022_01/1984463120_index(1).png.e59b341cc511e71b14acfb4e8db133b2.png

    1. Too much in the way of models and maps are over-cooked right now. I’ll take a more reasonable forecast with lower amounts. Please.

  232. From Bernie who’s been calling this since Monday. Get a lot of credit for ticking to it

    STATEMENT FROM BERNIE RAYNO (LOL, I always wanted to write that): I have seen this many times in the past. You ride the NAM on this, it isn’t perfect and will likely be overdone in some areas, but overall it will out perform the GFS and EURO. Twitter live at 5:45 am.

    1. The top left forecast has Worcester getting hammered. Only time I’ve heard this the whole week, and I don’t see any of the other ones even close.

      1. Usually do get a strong band a little further northwest than modeled

        and

        out there, it will be really fluffy and pile up like crazy.

  237. checking all of the models and only looking at qpf, they look to average about 1.75 inches for Boston.

    The consensus ratio is 15 to 1.
    That would be 26.25 inches
    Even if we lower qpf to 1.5, then it’s
    still 22 inches. Even if we lower the ratio, still a crap load of snow. And even 1 75 could possibly be low.

    I think 20-30 inches is a reasonable snow forecast.

  239. Danielle (Niles) Noyes is back on air. She’s with her husband Matt on NBC-10. Is today her first day?

    I would be curious if there has ever been a husband-wife tv met team on a Boston station. 😉

  240. Watch for major dry slot in some spots. Very concerned about that for some. Where does that set up is the million dollar question.

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