Friday January 28 2022 Forecast (7:49AM)

409 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

Temperatures went up overnight – what a balmy morning! Well, in comparison to recent temperatures it feels rather mild. This is a brief interlude of milder air though today, ahead of a cold front that will bring us back to the colder side of things just in time for the arrival of our Saturday storm. But before that, we may see a few snow showers with the slow passage of the cold front today. Our Saturday storm has not even formed yet, and will do so this evening when a couple pieces of energy arrive from different places and start a storm party. Low pressure forms then moves north northeast and rapidly intensifies, passing somewhere in the vicinity of the 40/70 benchmark, could be a little bit either side, and could do a little wiggle in its track as it responds to changes in the upper level steering winds. These little details will help shape the specific development, orientation, and behavior of the snowfall area and any heavier banding and lighter snowfalls that can and often do develop in between heavier bands. Basic timing for onset of snow is from south to north during the overnight / pre-dawn hours of Saturday, then a storm that peaks during the day and evening, and leaves us late evening Saturday to very early Sunday morning. Two high tide cycles need to be watched for minor to moderate coastal flooding, the morning and the evening high tides on Saturday, with north-facing coastal areas the most vulnerable due to a northeast to north wind. The low’s track and behavior will determine whether or not a mix of rain gets involved over Nantucket and the outer portion of Cape Cod for part of the storm. I don’t think much rain will get in there, but the snow there will likely be a little wetter / stickier consistency due to that milder atmosphere, compared to the powder type of snow we see across the remainder of the region. The fluff factor may not be as great in this storm as it was in our recent significant snowfall, as the flakes may be much smaller in size. This can have an impact on overall accumulation too – a factor I have considered. Will blizzard conditions occur? Blizzard conditions occur when you have a period of 3 or more hours of sustained wind or frequent wind gusts over 35 MPH, combined with considerable falling and/or blowing snow (doesn’t have to be falling snow, but will be here), reducing visibility to under 1/4 mile. This is definitely possible especially closer to the coast where the wind is likely to meet that criteria versus points further inland. But still, inland areas can expect plenty of blowing snow, and drifting of the fallen snow, regardless of whether or not they reach “official” blizzard status. There used to be a temperature criteria for a blizzard (below 20F, below 10F for a “severe blizzard”) but these were dropped by NWS. Ironically, much of the region may meet the old temperature critera anyway. Power outages are always possible in a storm like this, but I think the drier nature of the snow and the leafless trees will be a mitigating factor. Once this storm exits, we’ll be left with a cold but dry day on Sunday, breezy but not too bad, so that post-storm cleanup can proceed without hindrance. The cold and dry weather will continue through Monday, the final day of January, before we see a moderation to greet February on Tuesday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 30-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arriving overnight south to north. Lows 15-22. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast. Snow, varying intensities, may fall very heavily under banding features with significant rates of accumulation. Blowing and drifting snow. Blizzard conditions possible, especially near the coast. Highs 17-24 except 24-31 Cape Cod / Islands. South Shore to Cape Cod. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-50 MPH inland and 25-40 MPH with gusts 50-70 MPH coast with isolated gusts 75-80 MPH possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow tapering off. Total snow accumulation 10-18 inches with bands of above 18-24 inches and isolated greater than 24 inch amounts possible, but not definite. Blowing and drifting snow. Lows 12-19. Wind N to NW 15-30 MPH, higher gusts with strongest in the evening, diminishing a little overnight.

SUNDAY: Early clouds, then sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts. Areas of blowing snow at times.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 2-9. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22 evening, rising overnight. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Milder with rain chances at times early-mid period . Colder later in the period, may end it with a snow chance.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Starting out chilly, then milder again. Additional unsettled weather threats.

409 thoughts on “Friday January 28 2022 Forecast (7:49AM)”

  4. Thanks TK. Just about the only thing I may get right about my prediction is that there may be two succinct bands of intense snow that the models were hinting at all week. Just hope there isn’t too much in the way of subsidence between them.

    1. Completely agree with the two bands setting up and there will definitely be subsidence in between. Wouldnt be surprised to see large variations in snow totals across relatively small distances. Good news is that even the screw zones in a storm like this could still pull out 15-20″.

    1. Wouldn’t be surprised if the inland areas in west central MA and CT end up with the jackpot. Notice how the second band sets up in both those frames.

        1. I don’t like all of the areas of lighter precipitation and I do not like how far off shore it is depicted.

    2. It’s still doing the double low thing. Most of the models up until yesterday had been showing that until the Euro and NAM began showing the single more powerful low. A setup like that is still a possibility.

  16. Thanks TK!
    As much as it is nice to see that deformation band as depicted on the models for my area, I’m trying to remain grounded as we all know those bands usually don’t set up exactly how modeled. I can still wish though.

  19. 6Z Euro held serve from 0z by the way.

    There’s a cluster of ensemble members west of the mean implying this model could tick a bit further west like the NAM at 12z. Wouldnt hedge any bets on that though with most other models a bit further east.

  25. Philip, you asked about a husband-wife team on TV. I think the most famous example around here was Chet Curtis and Natalie Jacobsen. They did divorce at a certain point, but were married and on air together.

    1. That is oh so true. However, I think Philip was asking about
      an on-air MET husband and wife team. I think.

      Funny story about Natalie Jacobson…
      We were once shopping at the Roche Bros. store in Needham
      and I went over to the meat display to grab a steak. It
      turns out Natalie and myself had our hands on the same steak.
      It was pretty funny. Of course, I let her take the steak.
      Nice person for sure!

      1. Funny indeed! It’s a wonder she didn’t insist that “you” take the steak. You certainly did the right thing of course. 🙂

  27. If the HRRR double low structure verifies vs the earlier, single consolidated low, this thing is not going to pull as far west and I doubt we would be seeing historic 30″+ snow totals anywhere (as you can see in that snowmap Dave posted above). Still, 1-2 feet is not too shabby!

  28. Huge shift east in NAM. Doesn’t change much for eastern sections but further west might want to keep an eye out.

    1. Yep….and that is because it reverted to the double low structure like the HRRR is showing. See my post above. That would favor a track further east.

  30. I have a different perspective on a shift east.

    I just think the 12z’s so far are slightly slowing and I mean slightly slowing the closing off and its allowing the sfc low to get a tiny bit further north and east ….

    but then, the closing off still happens in a good spot and it gets tugged back.

  32. Has that double barrel low, but then pivots and starts to stall. Interesting run for sure. Not sure what to make of it.

  33. The double low structure on the NAM still consolidates to a single more powerful low 967 mb near the benchmark. Looks like it still gets the banding back to central CT.

  35. Still a great run but totals are going to come back to earth a bit. SE MA jack and a bit less snow western areas.

    1. I post Kuchera, but I am looking at qpf and ratios.

      Btw, what do you think the average ratio for this event will be?
      WxWatcher indicated about 15 to 1 yesterday. Do you agree with that?

      Many thanks

    2. Thanks, Tom. Can you please remind me how to read that yellow finger down through this area. Yellow is 65-70 (I think) but not sure what those numbers mean.

      1. 2 ways.

        One is to match the color to the key below with the numbers.

        If you have a cursor, you can place it on a location and at least with this computer, a pop-up appears with the wind speed.

    1. About 1.89 inches qpf for Boston

      At 15:1 that is 28.35 inches
      At 14:1 26.46
      13:1 24.57
      12:1 22.68
      11:1 20.79
      10:1 18.9

      We know the ratio will be higher than 10:1. How high is the question and the ratio will not be the same throughout the storm as it may be a bit lower at the beginning and quite a bit higher at the end. So, we are forced to use an average ratio, but we have to use something.

      In all honesty, those numbers I have above seem very realistic
      to me. Just a matter of the ratio.

      18-28 inches. There ya go. 🙂

  41. 3km NAM has the low center around 41N and very close to 70W, so about over and even slightly north of the benchmark.

  43. I much prefer a solitary low. In a double barrel situation, one of the lows could rob the energy from the trailing one and if it does so too far offshore, that is where we could end up disappointed and wonder what went wrong. Seen that too many times not to consider it.

    1. Nobody is going to be disappointed here in eastern new England, out by Mark’s way that could be an issue.

      2. NOBODY ??? here in eastern New England 🙂 🙂 🙂

        I think a certain blogger who shall remain nameless often states how he, I mean, how the blogger was not impressed by what happened.

        1. I’m on the edge of impressiveness! I’ll let you know tomorrow. I will say I am impressed with the model runs for sure. Let’s see if it all materializes.

          If you saw Harvey last night, you saw a man bursting with confidence about the forecast and storm and a man
          who appeared very very worried about the consequences of said storm.

    2. I agree, except if the 1st low is too far off shore, and the 2nd one can develop and get sucked back closer to the coast, then
      we are in business and that is what is being depicted. So let’s
      hope so.

    1. 12z 3KM NAM has about 1,81 qpf for Boston, so it’s ratio is higher to give Boston more snow than the NAM.

      Let’s play the ratio game from 10:1 to 20:1

      10:1 18.1 inches
      11:1 19.91
      12:1 21.72
      13:1 23.53
      14:1 25.34
      15:1 27.15
      16:1 28.96
      17:1 30.77
      18:1 32.58
      20:1 36.2

      Therefore the 3KM NAM is using an overall ratio of about
      17:1

    1. Kuchera is a method for calculating snow fall developed by
      Evan Kuchera, a US Air Force meteorologist. It takes into account temperatures in various parts of the atmosphere.
      It is better than the 10:1, but it is no where near perfect.
      Just ask TK. 🙂

        1. I am happy with the isolated outages on his map and hoping the wind gusts to 50 tops is accurate. Seems to match up with TK if I read inland correctly as well as some other projections out there.

  54. I am waiting on the 12Z HREF. I am underwhelmed by
    the output of the 0Z HREF. Probably because it speaks
    the truth and I CAN’T HANDLE THE TRUTH! 🙂

  57. Thanks TK. Appetizer snow happening right now where I am. It looks like a foot of snow is likely where I am.

      1. Yes Jimmy I see that on radar. I was expecting only widely scattered flurries or very light snow today.

        Is that break-off from the actual storm?

  62. Now that we are really closing in …..

    time for the small nuances …..

    the snow will start a little lighter and later than modeled

    and

    wherever the most intense western band is, west of that subsidence and low level dry air will cut models amount down some.

    1. Tis modeled to start around 10-11 PM.
      If anything, it is possible we have off and on snow
      starting anytime now right up until the onset of the
      real stuff.

  64. What is a more exciting term to the media?

    “Bomb Cyclone”
    or
    “Polar Vortex”

    Obviously, a Bomb Cyclone explodes over an area, much as a bomb does, causing mayhem and destruction in it’s wake, but a Polar Vortex is like a monster, coming down out of it’s northern cave a few times during the winter to wreak havoc.

    Right now, BC is in the lead, but only due to rency bias 🙂

    2. There was a snow storm in the late 1990’s. All I remember is being threatened with both “An Apocalyptic Storm” and “Meteorological Armageddon.”

  67. Hot off the press, updated NWS snow map

    https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1487101542553427970?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Eembeddedtimeline%7Ctwterm%5Eprofile%3ANWSBoston%7Ctwgr%5EeyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19%7Ctwcon%5Etimelinechrome&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.weather.gov%2Fbox%2F

    1. One in eastern Mass, dependent upon where a coastal front sets up, separating teens and N winds from low 30s and NE wind. This front will be on the Cape thru the first 1/3rd to half of the storm.

      Then another where the best 700 mb to 850 mb NE flow is. That should be Merrimack Valley to Worcester County.

      Of course, can move with track of storm. So, if storm verifies a little closer, push these westward if it tracks a little further eastward, push these eastward.

  70. Why is 10 my low end amount? Accounting for potential dry air antics in western parts of the WHW forecast area.

    Most of the banding should be 18-24. Still feel anything over 24 will be rather isolated.

    1. Still, a pretty potent storm. How often do we see
      snow estimates of 18-24 inches around here?
      Pretty rare for sure.

  75. Dr S. Just saw your post on weather wisdom. A mutual friend recommended it this morning. Dave does an exceptional job. I only sporadically listen to podcasts so didn’t know of his until today and am now following. Thank you for posting it here

        2. I was just thinking earlier “imagine if this storm didn’t even crack the top ten” – I’m sure it will but man… after three days of saying the word historic anything less than a foot and a half will probably get all the armchair critics out.

  77. So, I would say the 12z suite slightly, very slightly backed off on how quick the 500 mb low closes off and therefore, where it closes off.

    Its not a big change, but just enough to nudge the sfc reflections east a bit, but not a lot.

    Now, we need to ask, are there any more atmospheric pieces that the models need a better sample of or are they all in place and being well sampled.

    Just takes a slight little something thats not well sampled to make one more adjustment on tonight’s 00z runs. If its well sampled, then 12z should be really good now.

  78. Fairly impressive snows to our south in CT and now, most of RI. When will Boston see its first flakes? sooner? later? than expected?

    1. I don’t think this is directly related to the storm.

      Its partially the approach of a cold front, that will supply tomorrow’s very cold air.

  79. Follow the track, look at short range stuff. Global models don’t see the banding signatures as much.

    Again sitting in eastern mass looks great, it’s always been further west the issue all along.

  80. We had a nice burst of moderate snow here in Manchester CT with big flakes that coated the ground. Tapering off now.

    Good to see at least that pretty much all models at this point put my area in eastern CT in the 12-16″ range though I dont like how close I am to the rapid drop off just west of Hartford.

    The insane totals in eastern MA shown on the models from last night have come back to reality which is not a huge surprise.

    Still think 1-2 feet is a good call for the entire region which encompasses everyone on this blog. Most in banding and southeastern areas, least in the subsidence zones and western areas.

  82. I’m getting messages from people telling me the snow is early.

    No.

    SAK and I have emphasized for a few days that today’s flakes are UNRELATED to the storm.

  83. The dual low structure of this thing being modeled is what is keeping this storm from being historic and pushing prolific snows further west. These lows do not consolidate and close off in time to bring a single, powerful low in tight like the Euro and NAM were showing last night.

    We’ll see how this thing evolves as it is developing in real time. I’m sure there will be some surprises. Case in point our January 9 storm that dropped widespread 8-15″ with 2-4″/hr snow rates. Not one model was showing this leading up to the onset of the storm.

    1. Mark, as I mentioned above the jackpot area for the storm – according to the Euro – has moved much farther north, to the area near Bangor, Maine. This suggests to me that the consolidation you’ve mentioned is happening too late for us, but in time for that part of Maine.

    1. Nice uptick in the HRRR further west. Entirely possible if we can get that outer band to pivot over Worcester County and into eastern CT.

  86. So now the Euro keeps it much farther offshore. Good to see that the models are all in agreement with 12 hours or less until the steady snow moves in. Oh wait….

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    1. “about” 1.84 inch qpf for Boston or very close to Boston.

      At 15 to 1, that is 27.6 inches.

      This Kuchera is about 31 inches for Boston with a ratio
      of 16.8 to 1

      The general consensus with all the model Kuchera ration is somewhere between 16 and 17 to 1.

  89. I am a wine drinker and have a wine collection. My household rule is no drinking of anything prior to 5 PM. If I read one more confusing model or map change, I am going to break the rule!

    Nothing serious … just vacillating between epic storm and epic bust.

    1. What a great shot of Harvard Stadium!

      And thank you TK, SAK, and others for informing, educating, and entertaining me day by day!

      2. Lord of the dry air is pretty funny or was that meant to
        be loads of dry air? Either way, it’s accurate. 🙂

  93. Ryan Hanrahan
    @ryanhanrahan
    7m

    My dark horse candidate for snow jackpot in this storm? Suffolk County, Long Island.

  94. Buoy 41002, due south of Cape Hatteras, NC and due east of Charleston, SC has a SE wind, so the low is going west of that buoy.

    In the last 2 hours, its pressure fell from 1010.1 mb to 1006.7 mb, or about 3.5 mb in 2 hrs.

    temp: 67F, dp rising to 64F, so plenty mild, humid air ready to get involved

    Storm in its infancy ………

  95. OK, yesterday we had the NAM, the 3KM NAM, the CMC and the EURO All giving a huge hit.

    Now we have the NAM on an island without even support from
    the 3KM NAM.

    I think all this hype of a historical storm is just that. It will still be a nice snow storm, but historical. Nope. Sorry.

    1. That map by the way is aggressive….particular in western areas. He has 18-24″ back to me. I like it. Not sure if it will verify, but it looks good!

    3. I don’t see the adjustment on that map. Still showing 2 ft for most of eastern MA except 18-24 down on the Southcoast and cape.

    1. Still have to look at everything, and there are factors that work against those somewhat overdone top #’s to begin with.

      Those mets are doing their job right up to and through the storm.

  99. I am officially modeled out. Attempting to pin down detail with them has been an exercise in futility. Time to start looking out the window and watching radar/satellite 🙂

    There are two certainties with this:

    1. We will all be removing a substantial amount of snow.
    2. There will be surprises….somewhere.

    1. Agree Mark. I was just thinking that.

      Hey who was the guy at Accuweather that would put on his “Big Daddy hat” when’s storm was coming? Is he still around?

  100. I’m not really in the mood to bring anything negative here but I did want to point out one thing that disappointed me. I was made aware of a social media post by Matt Noyes that had some 24 inch amount(s) on it, and one of the comments by some clueless person was quite nasty and telling him that Harvey beat him to it. Beat him to what? Harvey made Harvey’s forecast yesterday. Harvey will make Harvey’s forecast today. Matt was/is doing the same thing. Pizza bets aside, since when is it supposed to be a competition to see who is “better”? It’s not. Maybe the networks / stations compete for ratings, but these meteorologists are constantly giving their all to make the best forecasts they can make. Maybe they don’t agree all the time, but that’s the nature of the science. People like that comment-dummy need to get a life.

    Ok, back to your positive feeling day. 🙂 I just had to get that out.

    After what I have reviewed today so far, no changes to my current forecast.

    3. Several years ago, I had someone comment on one of my forecasts a day before storm that I needed to raise my snowfall numbers considerably because they were lower than everyone else and obviously wrong. Guess what, they weren’t.

        1. I see that far too often. People on Twitter and Facebook talking about which model “nailed” or “did a phenomenal job” 24 hours before the storm actually happens.

  101. Looking quickly at tropical tidbits, I think it looks like another AirForce recon plane is sampling the east coast in time for 00z models.

      1. It is pathetically piss-poor.
        What are we now less than 12 hours away and STILL no model agreement. What is going on???? They should be doing a little better than this?

        My gut keeps tugging at me telling me that the low will pass too far East to deliver the good stuff. Oh sure it will snow, but the big numbers won’t be achieved. Hope not.

        I saw that Mark Rosenthal has declared that all systems are GO!

  105. Got a report from East Providence that the fire stations have back hoes parked at each one. My assumption is that they are just going to be using the fronts of these are plows when needed. One can mistakenly infer that they are expecting to need a backhoe to move 20 feet of snow. Not the case. 😉 Have to make due with equipment / worker shortages of late.

  106. I think the psychological impact of looking at Kuchera snow projections is real.

    If one keeps seeing 28-34 inches over and over and over and then one ends up with 14, it probably feels like one got flurries.

    That Kuchera method probably is difficult to attain the majority of times, I´m guessing.

      1. oh absolutely.

        I´m a visual learner, that´s why I try not to look at it as often.

        I´d be easily influenced and then, disappointed.

    2. The psych of seeing any map applies. All day I’ve had people asking me about amounts, and if they have seen a range, the only number they are quoting to me is the top number of the range. I’ve educated each one of them. All I can do is keep doing my part.

      Many people know better. But many still do not.

    3. Doesn’t calm me in the slightest!

      I think they have taken a might drink of the Kool Aide!!!!

      Look at this….

      .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/…

      Highlights…

      * We now have high confidence in a historic major winter storm for
      eastern New England. Widespread 1 to 2 ft snowfall with localized
      3 ft is likely for eastern MA and RI along with blizzard
      conditions.
      * Snowfall rates could reach 2 to 4 inches per hour at times during
      the day on Saturday with possibility of thundersnow across eastern
      MA and RI.
      * In addition to potential historical snowfall, strong winds up to
      hurricane force especially along the coast will lead to bitterly
      cold wind chills on Saturday along with minor to moderate coastal
      flooding.

      If this is a HISTORICAL storm, I’ll eat my computer!!!!!!!!

  110. After watching the ups and downs for 3 days, it looks like the final furlong will be a slow fade east. While not a big snow guy, I now have a garage full of wood and plenty of food for next week.

  111. What’s `concerning’ – if you like lots of snow – is the inconsistency throughout. Models are often inconsistent, of course. But, we’ve seen not only inter-model divergence fairly close to the event, but also intra-model divergence, with each run of the same model showing sometimes quite different outcomes.

    Regardless, even if the RDPS verifies it’s still a healthy amount of snow in Eastern locations.

    I just hope for Mark’s and JJ’s sake that the low tracks further west than the RDPS projects.

    We shall see.

    As Mark said, it’s time to nowcast. Take a look out the window and see what happens.

    1. I think paying close attention to the short range high res guidance is important for the next 12+ hours.

      1. Which ones specifically so I may look along with you.

        HRRR, RAP, HRDPS, RDPS, HRW FV3, 3KM NAM?

        thanks

  113. Been seeing a trend of snow ending a little bit earlier than it looked previously. Nice bite on the storm’s butt by dry air as it’s getting read to head out…

    1. Dependent on deformation zone. However, flakes may be rather small, nothing like the FLUFF job we had not too long ago.

      1. I would say that 20:1 is a bit of a stretch. I have been
        using 15 to 1 in conjunction with qpf to get a good feel
        for the amount of snow.

      2. I like storms with small flakes, but there is a disadvantage in that the snow does not accumulate as fast or as much.

  118. Ryan Hanrahan on Twitter:

    “This is still a challenging forecast. The jet stream setup is classic for a New England blizzard but there are some big red flags – it looks like the storm that forms is going to try and follow thunderstorms over the Gulf Stream well offshore. A strange looking setup.

    Just looking at the jet stream evolution I’d expect a big one. But it’s almost like there’s a tug-of-war. If the end result is a really disjointed system (which is definitely possible) I think snow lovers will be siappointed.”

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1487186035306020864

  119. JPD, I sent you an email (again, the one I sent last night bounced back as a failed delivery. My old email account has been very undependable lately).

  120. To me, anything over 12 inches is a big storm. And, it looks like all of Eastern Massachusetts will get that; even most if not all of the Cape (Nantucket could be an exception). Wind will also be a factor everywhere along the coast. I expect major beach erosion on the Outer Cape.

    Yes, epic would be nice. But, historic or epic amounts may not happen. We’ll have to wait and see.

    Hazarding a guess (I’m probably wrong) I think Boston and vicinity get ~15 inches. I think Marshfield gets the jackpot at 19, Worcester, 12, Providence, 14, NYC, 9.

  121. If I wake up tomorrow in Boston and it’s partly sunny and there’s a northerly breeze, shifting to a northwesterly I will keep in mind what Tom said yesterday morning in his post.

  122. Pete showed the same snowfall rate loop that he showed last night. Last night it had a whole lot more 2-3 inch per hour rates than the most recent loop, which was mainly 1 inch per hour rates with pockets of 2 inch per hour rates. This is from their in-house guidance.

  123. This is what has concerned me. The GFS has been consistent and historically has been the outlier that ultimately verified. Also, I do not like the double barrel set up. One low typically gets robbed of its energy as it is transferred to another low but too far east. Wouldn’t be a first and won’t be a last.

  126. NWS all in on their afternoon forecast discussion.

    Harvey Leonard not backing down.

    Pete Bouchard just ramped UP his snow totals from what I am reading.

    I just don’t get it based on the guidance today.

    Here’s Ryan Hanrahan’s response on the AmericanWx forum:

    1 hour ago, CT Rain said:
    I love the enthusiasm… but that BOX AFD seems completely divorced from the reality of every piece of guidance today.

    Posted 4 minutes ago
    It is strange to see a lot of the TV people ramping up and the BOX AFD bordering on Armageddon. I don’t really see it after the 12z runs and the data since – particularly in the Hartford area. Running with a 12-20″ total was just too much for me given the guidance. Even getting more than a foot seems like a challenge at this point.

    I do like the look for S CT for a nice burst overnight.

    1. I don’t see anyone bordering on Armageddon and I have little patience for folks cannot just post their thoughts but need to stand on the heads of others along the way. I have always liked Ryan but his crown just slipped for me.

      I’m afraid This is going to get nasty and I’m sorry to see that

          1. ❤️

            True but he just didn’t need to…..especially after he posted …shared above by JJ I think….about how difficult this is to forecast.

  128. I received 15 inches in Westwood from the last storm. Wouldn’t it be funny to not surpass that tomorrow after all this.

  129. One thing I will say in the NWS, Harvey and Pete’s defense….the models have been horrendous. Inconsistent run to run and inconsistent vs one another. At face value, the setup looks text book for a massive New England snowstorm. The question is whether the double barrel low set up, and the lows attempting to chase the convection out into the Atlantic, actually materializes or a single consolidated, more powerful low forms sooner and tracks closer to the coast. I give those mets credit for going with what they think will happen and not reacting to every waffle of the inconsistent models.

    Let’s give the system time to actually develop and see what starts happening. The shorth range models might have an entirely different look 6, 9, and 12 hours from now. As I said earlier, there are going to be surprises with this. Let’s hope they are for the better!

  131. I mentioned this to TK a little while ago. One thing that concerns me is that I raised my numbers this morning. Nearly every time I give in to the models and bump my numbers up within 24 hours of a storm is when my original forecast verifies. It doesn’t happen every time, but a good 80% of the time.

  132. I think you guys will be happy.

    I keep seeing the 700 mb low placement and its over Cape Cod and the 850 mb low is not too far southeast of that.

    Add in a little ocean enhancement first third of the storm when the colder air first arrives.

      1. I think you want to be NW of the 850 mb low and 700 mb or you want them to be southeast of you by a bit.

        I think 🙂 🙂 🙂

        Because, on the NW side of those circulations, you have a NE low level jet pumping moisture into our region.

        1. Hey, I dunno. My brain is mush today, so I might be
          mis-remembering some old material I have read. 🙂

  133. That buoy 41002 I mentioned earlier, south of Cape Hatteras, east of Charleston, pressure down to 1002.7 mb with a due south wind.

  134. The comments above remind me of a time when Stuart Soroka was on air explaining how the set up was perfect for a major snow storm for the Boston area. He said on air that he was trying to figure out what could go wrong so there would not be a storm.
    Well, guess what? There was no storm! Nothing!

    So, food for thought.

      1. Me, too.

        By the way, his forecast still projects a ton of snow. I think people forget that 18-24 inches of snow for Eastern Massachusetts is a lot. Even if Boston winds up with, say, 16, that’s a really nice sized storm.

    2. Yes, I always liked him.

      He and I had a nice conversation at the Star Market Deli counter
      in W. Roxbury one evening long ago. Good guy, He SHOULD be on air!

      1. Agree. I’d say the same for Pete and JR who I’ve had the distinct pleasure to work with….more Pete than JR. and Eric who has never hesitated to answer my many questions politely and in detail. We really have the jackpot.

        1. Yup. Pete and JR were two down to earth people at Lyndon. Pete had a funny mannerism and it still comes across in what he´ll sometimes say on TV.

          Dave Epstein, I think was a year ahead of me and I didn´t really know him. He certainly has carved out a nice role for himself in the local Meteorology market with both his strong weather knowledge and gardening expertise.

          1. Agree. I love them all, but Pete holds a very special place in my heart. He was so kind when Mac was fighting his battle. His wife had fought her own and thank God had won.

  138. Over the past couple hours, the HRRR and other models like it have stopped the small eastward track change seen on the 12z models and continued at 18z.

    But the 21z and 22z HRRR has stabilized as has other short range models.

    I wouldn´t be surprised now by a slight, very slight western change at 00z, with a slightly less emphasis on a double barrel low.

      2. Double barrel central.

        23z RAP has that setup too but closer to the coast. Better outcome and more robust.

      3. 15z or 10am now, its cranking good now from Boston´s northwest suburbs points S and E.

        Low starting to get captured.

        I think what today has done, I know it sounds crazy, but, if the low is too close, you could conceivably have sent all the heavy snow bands inland, west of us.

        This correction today, I believe brings an increased chance that one of the bands is over eastern MA.

        I know thats not necessarily showing up on all snow projections, but looking at 700 and 850 on everything, I think Boston, Jamaica Plain and Marshfield have a good chance to sit under a heavy band for a while.

    1. As the crow flies, 1 mile, maybe 1.5 miles.

      Thankfully, however, we have the South river, which is tidal, but its huge accompanying salt marsh.

      And, that salt marsh holds a ton of water and has done a good job in the 20 years we have been here, holding back the water.

      A neighbor, at the end of the street, who we get along with, their back yard is at the marsh and even in the worst surges we have seen, the water comes up onto their yard, but stops short of the road.

    2. He’s close enough so that people at the shoreline can hear him yelling “Ok sea breeze, come and get me!” during the summer. 😉

  141. An ever-so-slight overall downward trend on the numbers for RAP & HRRR over the last handful of hours – nothing too drastic.

  143. I’ve heard some of the timelines bringing steady snow to the South Coast as early as 9PM. I don’t see that. It will be later.

  144. When I was heading home from school around 3 pm, I spied a convoy of power trucks headed toward the Cape on Rt. 495,

    1. Good idea.

      I think, power wise, we might be ok Captain.

      We get in trouble with wet snow.

      Thinking this won´t adhere to our trees and much.

      Without snow, the trees standing have been through a lot.

      Hoping no surprise 65+ mph gusts.

      Good luck down there Captain !

    2. Captain my son in law was working on the cape today and a friend I was just chatting with by phone was in Bourne buttoning up his summer house. Both said there were tons of electric utility trucks heading there….from all over. Canada, Florida, Georgia to name a few

  145. This is not a criticism, just meant as humor… 🙂

    I did catch all the local TV folks and their forecast maps. Each one of them can represent a major forecast model. Harvey is definitely the 12km NAM. 😉

  146. I remember a couple times in the early 80’s when we were expecting a big storm and Harvey had to come on the air and interrupt the programming in the evening to say that the energy was heading east and was going to miss us changing 12-18 to 2-4. Classic for some of those clippers back then that were going to hit the Jersey coast and explode and head northeast but instead peeled off to the east with all the convection and heavy bands.

    They really didn’t have all the tools we have today. Can’t believe we have been so lucky to have him for so many years. He will be missed when he retires.

  147. Trying to line up low positions with the coast of Maine to the north …..

    I´d say, 18z and 00z HRRR fairly similar, with maybe a 20 mile westward change at 00z ??????

  148. Enjoy the storm up there all! Happy for all you snow lovers 🙂

    Gonna be a pretty solid hit down here too. Not quite on eastern New England’s level, but believe it or not will likely be the biggest single storm total for me since I moved down here over 3 years ago!

  149. Thanks to this forum, I had “Kuchera” in my head all day!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Kuchera would be an awesome name for a heavy metal ’80s band!

    I am beat tonight. We gave finals this week, started a new semester with three new groups of kids, had an emergency in the chem lab today at lunchtime and we all had to evacuate the building. Everything is okay.

    Remember when Friday used to be date and party night?????
    Hahahaha. If I am still awake for Final Jeopardy these days, that’s a big night! 🙂

    Thanks to everyone at WHW here for a great and educational week. The warm-up bands are done. It’s time for the headliner.

    Good night, y’all!

  151. I feel obligated to hazard a storm total guess for Boston Logan:

    23.8″.

    I’d give them about a 2 in 10 shot of breaking their single storm snowfall record.

  152. 850 mb and 700 mb centers further northwest.

    Havent looked, but everything points to an increase in snow amounts and some to the west again.

  153. Just when you thought the totals were coming down, you get pulled back in again. It does seem that the trend is less and I am watching for any moves off the highest totals. With limited hours left, there is not much more time for this crazy ride.

  154. I’m asking for snow reports from my kids lol. Maybe I haven’t shared this, maybe I have, I don’t know but I have four kids, three of which are triplet girls. Of the girls, one in DC, one in Philly, One in Beverly LOL. Son in NYC. Anyway, the DC and Philly gals are reporting light snow with coatings so far.

  155. I think the HRRR and RAP look impressive for the eastern third to half of Massachusetts.

    A little better at 500 mb again compared to 12z and 18z, therefore, a little closer to the coast and more intensification.

    I do think the HRRR is also, as we get very close, picking up on western areas really fighting dry air at lower levels.

    My guesses:

    Logan: 25.3¨
    Marshfield: 22.8¨ and good luck to who measures that
    Worcester: 13.1¨ they get into the westernmost band for a bit
    Springfield, MA: 5.7¨

    2. 22.8 marshfield Tom , crazy . Throw out a number for pembroke & we have a breakfast bet at the mug whoever is closer .
      Marshfield- 17.5
      Pembroke- 20

  159. According to my radar scope SNOW is nipping at the heels of the South Coast. Looks like snow is falling in East Central/Southern CT and the bottom 1/2 of RI.

    I must say, the radar signatures along the coast looks pretty decent and encouraging. Looks to me like the low is developing at least close enough to the coast to be meaningful up here.

    Historical? I don’t think so, unless some unexpected MEGA
    bands set up and we can never know about that until they happen.

    I want me some THUNDER SNOW tomorrow! Off to TV Land. Re-watching OZARK. Love that show.

    Check in before retiring to see if anything has changed.

    Will be watching Harvey.

    2. Only reaching the ground in southwestern CT, NYC, and Block Island as of 9PM. And some of that is still actually from the cold front that went by.

  162. That’s a heck of a lot of snow projected on the 0Z NAM. Often overdoes it, but can’t be discounted. Would be borderline historic if it verifies.

    One thing I have major concerns about is significant beach erosion and property damage on the Outer Cape, from the elbow (Chatham) northward to the Cape Cod National Seashore – Fort Hill area (Eastham).

    1. So what are your thoughts? I know the models aren’t always reliable and you often say that you need to apply meteorology. So, what say you?

      1. My thoughts are still the same as they were in the post above the comments section but I will be posting the next version of that in a few hours. 🙂

      1. Harvey had it at 9 for us Tom . I can’t wait until his forecast verifies. Harvey’s forecasting this week has been exceptionally good .

            1. He is another that makes me proud to have in Boston. They have all been exceptional……for anyone who knows me, there might be a bit of a hidden message there 😈

  165. Well, I hope this snow doesn´t intensify too much the next few hours.

    Its 34F out and the harbor buoy breeze is 050, so its going to be a few to several hours of wet snow.

    Certainly don´t need to paste the trees with 4-5 inches of snow prior to the real cold air, but more importantly, strong winds arriving.

    1. I’m on shift now I’m just hoping it’s not treacherous when I leave the city at 7 am . I’ll just go nice & slow as I’m in no rush .

    1. Not hockey related but saw your 5:00 comment …I have a 5 time also but darn near broke that during the games Sunday. So I laughed loudly at your post

  169. We have a sugar coating on the deck. My daughter suggested I put our extra ring camera (normally used for back yard critters) inside my slider, looking onto deck. Smart kid if I do say so. I cropped out the extension cords on chairs in case we need to use them for generators

    https://ibb.co/FzH1cwS

  173. Snow forecast remains the same here…
    The 10 is for areas like southwestern NH, and the top #’s are for the bands. Still don’t think we’ll see that widespread an area reaching or exceeding 24 inches, partially due to flake size, and partially due to orientation / configuration of heavier banding.

    Also, earlier start aided by the frontal boundary that went by, but also earlier finish seems more likely, so the overall “storm time” for snowfall is the same.

    1. Took a snooze after the Bruins. Up for a while now. Snooze in a while. Back up around 6:30.

      Myself & my son will be on shovel duty with 3 passes planned between early afternoon Saturday and late morning Sunday, but we will be joined by neighbor with snow blower as well.

      At least whatever falls will be quite lightweight. The first pass will just be a volume reduction because it will be blowing around like crazy.

      1. Sounds good. I’m planning at least 3 cleanups myself, with battery recharge time in between, but probably good old shoveling having to fill in. Go easy, lot of snow to clear!

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