Sunday January 30 2022 Forecast (8:46AM)

111 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

The late January storm lived up to expectation, delivering the big snow, especially under synoptic bands that we know would be a factor. There was some good storm surge of 2 to 3 feet along the coast which thankfully occurred outside of high tide, making the flooding less severe than it could have been, although some neighborhoods were impacted by the significant amount of water pushed ashore. The wind damage and power outages were most concentrated on Cape Cod and parts of the South Shore and South Coast, where during the first few hours of the storm the snow was a wetter / pasty consistency that then froze to trees and power lines as the temperature dropped and the wind picked up. The snowfall distribution was as expected for the most part, with a little variability in forecast verification here and there as is nearly always the case with these events. Blizzard conditions were verified for several locations “officially”, including Worcester which wasn’t even under a blizzard warning, essentially making it the “Blizzard of 2022” for all points Worcester eastward. One of the bigger surprises of the storm for me was the persistence of an orphaned snow band that sat in central MA for a few hours after the storm had taken all of its “connected” snow offshore. Areas that initially slightly under-performed for snowfall made it up at that point. If there was a place where amounts were a little lighter than expected, that would be southern NH and north central MA, but this can often be the coast with a fairly quick drop off in amounts away from a storm that is concentrating its full fury closer to the coast, with drier air there and lack of heavier snowfall bands to make it into those areas. But with the storm now behind us, all that’s left is the post storm recovery (cleanup, power restoration), and the weather, while cold, will be fair and favorable for such efforts during these final 2 days of January 2022, under the influence of a cold Canadian high pressure area. The wind will still be up enough today for some additional blowing of the powdery snow that fell, so keep that in mind if you are going to be out doing cleanup or other activities. It’s also important to keep in mind that many areas will be dealing with large snow banks along the sides of streets and especially street corners. Tonight, as winds drop off, the temperature will drop down, with the deep snow cover aiding in radiational cooling of what little solar heat we had during the day, so it’s going to be quite a cold one, with a tiny bit more recovery in temperature expected during the day Monday. And then it’s time for a change as we enter February. High pressure moves offshore Tuesday and we start to moderate more significantly. By Wednesday, a disturbance goes by with a rain shower risk as milder air overtakes the region, and this mild air will continue through Thursday. Previously, it looked like Thursday may turn into wet day, but there are some indications that high pressure ridging will be strong enough to hold the next system off to the north and west that day, keeping our area dry. Going with that idea for now and will keep an eye on it for changes.

TODAY: Sunny. Blowing snow at times. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -2 to +3 interior, 3-10 coast. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 17-24 evening, rising overnight. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Temperatures steady 30-37 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 40-47. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

February 4 looks unsettled with a frontal boundary pushing through the region with rain and mild air to start and then colder air coming in possibly turning the rain to snow or at least snow showers before it comes to an end. February 5-6 look colder/dry, as does the end of the period, but we may have to watch a disturbance for some precipitation around February 7.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

General idea for this period is a chilly / dry start and a milder / unsettled finish with lots of fine tuning needed for specifics as we get closer to mid month.

111 thoughts on “Sunday January 30 2022 Forecast (8:46AM)”

      1. Also, Ace, in case you didn’t see. Early morning Cat answered your question. I knew years ago contractors were paid hourly. I wasn’t sure if it still held.

        2. Thanks Vicki, yes I saw. My comments weren’t meant to bash NWS spotters. It’s been widely known in my town that one of the spotters is always significantly higher than the rest. I was just reaching for a reason other than bad measuring.

    2. Thanks! It was sad to see people ripping the NWS for “bad / inaccurate” snow reports on their social media page. For 1 thing, they said it was the latest update, not the final version, and for another thing I think the relative few who have to make these comments are just ignorant. I know most people understand it better, but it’s just disappointing to see those people. They’re out there, kind of like my next door neighbor who decided to open his window near the end of my 3-hour butt-busting shoveling marathon to tell me he didn’t like where I was putting the snow from the driveway (even though this has been the place / method for decades including him saying it was fine – btw we share a driveway). Has he lifted a shovel to help? Nope. He was worried about not being able to “make the corner” with his pick up truck, which I’m sure somebody else will dig out for him. For the record, there’s plenty of room – he’s just a bad driver. It runs in the family given the amount of time his son has knocked the drain pipe off my house with his car. I could go on, but it’s not worth the energy… Oh well. Moving on… 🙂 I have to go dig through a hefty snow bank that continues to block me in so I can go do my mom’s grocery shopping. Carry on!

      1. TK, I’ve always questioned the spotter from Sharon. People in the town have admitted he is always high. I’m wondering if there is any benefit of that other than bragging rights.

        1. We had one in framingham who was always high also. I have not seen him/her in a while so think maybe schooled or ignored

  4. Thank you, TK. Good write up.

    It seemed the orphan band that hung on long enough to bring an even 24 hours over this area surprised most Mets.

    That was the fluffy, larger flake snow we had january 7. It also accumulated much faster of course than it had all day. I was pleased to see both whitinsville and northbridge came in with 19.4 and 19” measurements …..right at my 19.7. I’m closer associate with those areas than I am Sutton since our house sits literally on the border.

    1. The most surprising thing to me (and probably others) wasn’t that this band existed – we knew the wild card of these, but the persistence of it after it was “left behind”. It was more fascinating than frustrating from a meteorology / weather geek perspective. 🙂

      1. Exactly. The bands lined up exactly with the map Pete posted Friday night when he upped his numbers. He has a history of stepping outside the lines and with very rare exception being absolutely correct. If he is incorrect, he always apologizes on air. Having chatted with him after one storm all misread, I learned he also takes any error very personally.

        The others were also excellent. Channel 25 gave me pause a few times but he isn’t close to a favorite. Still he is a good met. The others IMO are exceptional.

        1. Speaking of exceptional…..did anyone post the tweet where Jim Cantore referred to Harvey as the GOAT? Maybe someone posted here and I missed it. Off to look for it.

        2. There were definitely some adjustments that we all needed to make. Eric spoke of having to eliminate his heavier band to the west, at the time thinking it wasn’t going to happen, until it did happen. Nobody really could have seen that coming quite the way it did. I didn’t think he made a bad gamble by trying to approximate where the heavier bands would be. He, as the others did, cautioned what could go wrong.

          I reiterate that our group did a great job trying to forecast / adjust / update a very tough and hard-hitting winter storm.

          And even if I didn’t agree with the size of Harvey’s 24+ snow area, as I acknowledged before and will again, in Harvey’s own words once spoken on the WBZ TV show “People Are Talking” (hosted by Tom Bergeron), “I want to make the best forecast that I can make, and control only the things I can control.” I know that he and Jim C. have been good friends for a while and Jim’s GOAT comment was very fitting. In reality we probably have had and still have a few GOAT’s – because we have a great market here. 🙂

  6. From August 1984 through December 2008, the average January ocean temp at the Boston Harbor Buoy was 4.9C

    (I will post this link a bit later)

    It was 6.1C during this blizzard

    That´s +1.2C compared to that almost 25 year time period

    Have to think this extra relative warmth available to the storm in the ocean, added additional moisture to the ¨death bands¨

    1. This is what the AMO does.
      We have a lot more to learn about it.

      I have no doubt that it is a contributing factor.

    1. You never know. All it would take is something like the 1979 Presidents Day Storm getting NYC but not Boston. They could catch right up. 😉

      My 32.1 for Boston in the WHW contest is not looking as good any longer. 😉

    1. Awesome. Very kind words from Jim Cantore, who’s a great guy himself.

      Met Cantore once years ago when he was out in Natick doing his thing with a snowstorm. My wife, son and I drove out there in the snow. I spoke with Cantore and he invited me into the production truck. Pretty cool. Wife and son wanted no part of it.

      1. Awesome you had a chance to meet him. I have always thought highly of him too. High praise for Harvey indeed

  11. TK after this storm do you think BOS will get close to or a little bit above normal snowfall for the season?

  12. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Beautiful day yesterday. Loved that persistent synoptic band yesterday as My location was under it for 7 hours.
    Hard to say, but JP had between 21 and 24 inches. Not too shabby.

    Thank you, may I have another.

    Made up for some lost sleep yesterday and did’t get up till 930 which is a rarity for me.

  13. If I read the Taunton discussion currently, seems there is a possibility of there being a lot of moisture available for the next system (High PWAT’s)

    Let’s hope the northern jet flattens, pushes the cold front through and suppresses the bulk of the moisture to our south.

    This is a watcher though as one outcome could be to melt the 1.5 or so inches of water equivalent snow and put down another 1 inch of rain on frozen ground in a short time period.

  14. The euro currently seems to give the northern stream a little more influence and has a colder solution, with even some snow.

    GFS not a lot of rain, but not as much northern stream influence with us in the warm sector.

      1. Sure is 🙂

        Also, around Tuesday, lightest easterly low level flow off ocean.

        Possibility for a touch of frz drizzle at some point ??

  15. GFS seems to be trying to edge towards the euro.

    Possible severe weather chance for gulf coast.

    Much different scenario, but another busy weather week.

  16. Thanks, TK!
    Good morning, everyone!

    Thanks again to everyone here at WHW for an educational and fun week!!!! I had a crash course in Kuchera, true snow and death bands! 🙂

    Did anyone catch a final total from the NWS office on Commerce Way in Norton? I see “Norton” listed a couple of times on the final snow report, but it fails to say if it’s the National Weather Service or not. I have been keeping snowfall totals from Taunton and BOX throughout the years and would like to add this storm’s total to the list. If anyone saw that number, could you share it with me?

    I also believe I saw a 71-mph gust from the East Taunton airport around 11 am on the automated instruments there. That’s one of the strongest gusts I’ve had ever seen there!

    Great men’s final from the Aussie Open this morning! ¡Rafa!
    He won this 21st and record-breaking men’s title!

  17. Thanks TK.

    I managed about 9” here and had some drifts to 18”. Snowed lightly to moderately about 24 hours straight with blizzard conditions at times. Still a good storm but I missed the heavier 20”+ totals by literally only 20 miles to the east.

    00z UKMET was even further south with the late week storm threat than the Euro and also delivers a general 6-10” to the area:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022013000&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    12z GFS as Tom said seems to be trending that way as well and is now showing a rain to mix to snow scenario.

    2. Sorry for that, Mark. And for JJ. I was hoping that last band would stretch your way. Since it surprised many, I’m going with my thought that it had angels wings 🙂

  18. Thank you, TK.

    What a fantastic month this has been, weather-wise. A `classic’ January.

    Ventured out today – feeling progressively better – and shoveled out my car and also a portion of the sidewalk which the city hadn’t done. Met a new neighbor, Morris, who is from England. He and I shoveled the 12 feet of sidewalk that hadn’t been done. First thing he said was, “what surprised me is that it’s so sunny and gorgeous today.” I told him that this is normal. Arctic highs come in behind a snowstorm and usually provide us with a sunny day or two. And yes, that is a shocker to anyone from that part of the world, as I mentioned yesterday. Low pressure area don’t pull through England and then a cloudless day arrives. Never in winter, and rarely in other seasons. We’re blessed in New England with plentiful sun and so many gorgeous days.

  19. Thank you very much TK, this was a challenging storm for you and your colleagues, but handled it well.
    Mark I share in your frustration with just missing out on the heaviest snow bands that set up just a dozen or so miles from me also. I ended up with 11” where Vicki not too far to my east received 19” I believe. No hard feelings Vicki. Enjoy!!

  20. Mark and JJ:
    You’re both welcome to come up to my driveway and walkway to grab as much snow as you want to take home. Maybe we can get DoorDash to help out. 🙂

  21. Josh:

    When I teach weather expressions to my Spanish students, I use today as an example for “Hace sol” (It’s sunny) and “Hace calor” . They equate “It’s sunny” with “It’s hot”. I tell them that there’s brilliant sunshine after a major snowstorm, but bitterly cold.

    Beautiful deep blue skies topping off blankets of white!

    Now I have to figure out how to say “Kuchera” and “death bands” en español. 🙂

    1. Love it.

      “Grupo de muerte” just doesn’t sound good. In fact, it kind of sounds like a notorious Pinochet death squad.

  23. Severe rain and wind storms are hitting Ireland, the UK, the low countries – Belgium and the Netherlands – and parts of Scandinavia in succession. See link below. First, a storm named Malik earlier in the week, and now a few days later, Corrie (named after the first on air female Dutch meteorologist, Corrie van Dijk). These are southwesterly storms, by the way. They tend to come in clusters, one after another in fall and winter. They bring more wind than rain to most places. The sustained gale force (and often severe gale) winds are incredible to experience. I will say that. It’s not just a gust or series of gusts. No, it’s wind that howls continuously. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-60187954

  24. I think definitions of our storm are getting mixed up in various places … internet, TV, and conversations I’ve had.

    As I understand it: 1) it was the 2nd highest January snow storm total recorded here, and 2) it was the highest one-day total for a January snow storm. also

    Could someone please confirm the above as correct or incorrect?

    2. I thought it had tied for one in your 2. Maybe they found another flake to bump it up. You’d think they could have 🙂 🙂

  26. Concerned about flooding potential later in the week. Guess we won’t know details for another few days. Is February still supposed to be warmer temps or has that changed?

  28. If the southeast ridge is not very strong or the central US trof is not very deep, featuring a strong low pressure area, I would lean towards these colder solutions.

    Without the 2 previous things, the dense, cold air in Canada will prevail.

    Could even end up a quickly passing through cold front and all the precip getting suppressed to our south.

    1. still 24+ hours of temps above freezing and melting with the colder scenario, but not a big surge into the 50s with 50F dewpoints.

  29. Joshua… Glad you are feeling better!

    Vicki… Replied to your 9:44 a.m. reply just so you don’t miss it (it’s pretty far up the thread already).

    My neighbor apologized to me, which was nice. We had a nice chat after that.

    I’m going for a short walk around the local pond to feel some wind chill and take a few photos before today’s games get underway.

    I’ll take a look at all the 12z stuff and maybe have a few comments on that later. 🙂

  30. School closing starting to come in already for tomorrow:
    Attleboro, Warwick and Rockport.

    Taunton extended its parking ban to tomorrow morning.

  31. Yesterday’s storm was the fourth greatest in Providence (Green Airport) history:

    February 6-7, 1978 28.6″
    January 22-23, 2005 23.4″
    January 7-8, 1996 22.8″
    January 28-29, 2022 19.3”
    January 26-28, 2015 19.1″

    Records since 1905.

  32. We are now connected to the North Pole by a continuous snow pack and ice that runs from here to there. 😉

    1. Yes, I saw that. Still 5-6 days away. Anything can happen.
      We shall see.

      Lots of dense snow pack all over. Something the models don’t always factor that well.

      1. GFS says the current snow pack will be gone by 2/9 or so, south of Boston. That is if nothing comes from the late week storm.

    2. My son did a bunch of measurements all over and came up
      with an average of 24 inches on the dot.

      I removed an average 24 inches off of the 2nd floor deck.

      So. I am feeling pretty good about 2 feet here in JP.

      I am still marveling about that Synoptic band that we were under for a full 7 hours.

      I would like to learn some more about how/why those bands form. As I kid growing up, I could never understand how
      a town 10-15 miles away could end up with so much more
      snow than my town got. Now I know the cause, but not
      totally how it happens. Is it similar to the outer bands in hurricanes?

      Are deformation zones and synoptic bands the same thing and if not, what are the differences?

      Would this be one of the main causes of the banding?

      https://ibb.co/9vnSqTW

      In addition to some other contributing factors.

      1. There are other factors, but that’s largely the base reason right there.

        I kind of analogy I like to use is to visualize the surface of a pond with a stone dropped into the water. You have a point of impact and a bunch of ripples (sine waves) radiating out from the point where the water was displaced.

        Now think of a “messier” less symmetrical version of this with the point of entry represented by the low pressure center and a much slower moving version of the ripples (not perfect sine waves but a few irregular ones due to perturbations in the surrounding atmosphere). The ripples are waves and represent your banding both enhanced and suppressed activity.

        1. Thank you so much. I think I have a much better understanding. Can some sort of convergence also play a roll? It other words, it would almost be like an area of
          convection within the synoptic system.

          Many thanks chief.

  35. Photos like this are reminders that we still get off relatively easily with a lot of these compared to the “high water mark” of winter storms for our area (southeastern New England)…

    Hampton Beach NH, Blizzard of 1978

    https://scontent-bos3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/272896446_1299552183879560_7942689098978530380_n.jpg?_nc_cat=100&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=5cd70e&_nc_ohc=e2BgLbyhcnkAX8-ZC_b&_nc_ht=scontent-bos3-1.xx&oh=00_AT-G4JuWJ1I5X5OpwHuImWwLa6KbzfIgRjzqVKtkJxuhFw&oe=61FB47BE

    1. Yw 🙂 These days with the amount of comments things can get lose in the shuffle up there!

  38. I’ve looked over today’s guidance from 12z and kind of thought about the general pattern…

    Cold & dry but much less windy for the final day of January.
    First of Feb will be a nice day too, milder not 100% sunshine.
    Moisture plume from a dissipated low from the south brings the chance of some rain showers as it will be quite mild Wednesday. Thursday-Friday I like a slower timing with a fair weather day Thursday, variable clouds, and quite mild, followed by a Friday that starts rainy, ends snowy, and may carry an icy mix in between during the transition. Sometimes guidance can overdo the amount of moisture for these systems at this range, so that may be the case too. Something to monitor. Colder next weekend, but I don’t think we’re going back into a cold pattern with only a brief warm-up to precede it. I think we’ll have more of an up-and-down temp regime in the medium range.

    Football games…
    I’d like to see Cincy & San Fran win, but I fear we may get KC & LA.

    Bruins game…
    Go Bruins! 😉

    1. Agree re super bowl. I do NOT like Mahomes and don’t want Rams either. I’m hoping at least one you named will be in SB or It will be a letdown

  39. It was fun watching the storm here yesterday, but my son has really outdone us. We just learned that he is at the lighthouse (Graves Light) in Boston Harbor. It is owned by his friend’s family. They were out there for the storm. The water is still too rough to get back.

    My son was working the camera during the live interview with Eric for WBZ. He is one of the two “knuckleheads” referred to in the interview:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LceJ0HMaXwg

    2. THANK YOU. This is amazing. I’ll share with a friend or maybe on Sutton FB site. She is spending a night in a light house off of the Maine coast this summer. She booked it maybe a year ago and it is booked until 2023.

      I’ve always thought I’d like to live in a lighthouse. What an amazing experience for your son.

  41. What a game.

    What a comeback.

    So happy for the Bengals and their fans!

    Really like Burrow.

    Needless to say, I am not a KC Chiefs fan.

    And to all the pundits last week who said no-one can stop Mahomes. Yes, good defenses can. Adjustments, you need to adjust. Bills never adjusted last week, and played atrocious defense (as did the Chiefs, for that matter).

  42. No matter what happens from here on I don’t think there has ever been a more exciting NFL playoff season overall (regardless of who you root for).

    1. Absolutely. It doesn’t hurt that the team I’d like to see win, now that my other pics won’t be there, will be there

  43. The Bruins are being soundly beaten by a team that looks like a bunch of skating avacados.

  44. The gfs and icon seem to be trending colder for the Friday storm. Can’t see Euro

    Cold morning here -2 did the models show such cold temps this morning?

    2. The models don’t forecast this type of cold very well AT ALL. Deep snow cover, clear sky, light wind. Model forecasts easily 10 to as much as 20F WRONG on a routine basis.

      Trust me, they would not have forecast Norwood to be -13. 😉

  45. Now the Gfs, Ukmet and Icon want to deliver a good slug of snow Friday, while the Euro and Cmc say no. Here we go again
    fwiw, the gfs wants to deliver nearly 20 inches kuchera.

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