Monday January 31 2022 Forecast (7:54AM)

146 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

On this final day of January, we’ll enjoy bright sunshine with less wind than yesterday, but with last night’s clear sky and light wind along with fresh snowcover, the temperature dropped efficiently with many locations sitting a handful of degrees either side of zero. Your regional cold spot is Norwood at -13F and your “warm” spot is Provincetown where a combination of some wind and the milder ocean water kept the temperature at about 20F. This is a typical spread for a clear, light wind, snowcovered mid winter morning. Temperatures will become a little more uniform during the day today as we have light winds and abundant sunshine and while most areas fail to reach the freezing point it will be nicer feeling than yesterday’s colder temperatures, especially since we will also enjoy lighter wind. We’ll welcome February on Tuesday with a sun/cloud mix and slightly milder air as the high pressure area that sits over us now will move itself offshore. There will be a low pressure area to the south of New England that will be in the process of unraveling itself, and its leftover moisture may cause some rain shower activity for us on Wednesday as we’ll be immersed in much milder air by then on a southerly air flow with high pressure offshore. For our snowcover, expect a slow melt in sunniest areas today (south sides of buildings, etc.) but watch for a quick re-freeze of any meltwater tonight. This process repeats a little more zealously Tuesday and Tuesday evening. By Wednesday, the melting process will be accelerated but we will avoid flooding issue due to the lower water content snow and the lack of heavy rain. We stay mild into Thursday when we’ll have a cold front approaching. The timing of this boundary will help determine when our next widespread precipitation arrives, which will be in the form of rain. Right now I am leaning toward later in the day. As the front goes by, colder air will waste little time getting in and we may transition to a period of freezing rain and/or sleet, then snow to end as a low pressure wave comes along the front and passes just to our south. The amount of moisture falling with cold enough air will ultimately determine both our ice and snow impact, and it’s still a handful of days away so we’ll have time to fine tune this before its occurrence, but for now just plan on a slightly messy end to the work week.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-17 evening, rising overnight. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to S.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind S up to 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Temperatures steady 30-37 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 40-47. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny morning. Cloudy afternoon with rain arriving late, especially northwest of Boston. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain likely, may change to freezing rain and sleet especially north and west of Boston. Lows 28-35. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with freezing rain and/or sleet mixing with or changing to snow before ending. Temperatures falling to 25-32. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

Cold/dry February 5-6 weekend. Watch for disturbance to bring snow/mix threat February 7. Cold/dry end to the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Milder trend. Unsettled weather most likely mid period.

146 thoughts on “Monday January 31 2022 Forecast (7:54AM)”

  9. Quick question Tk: Do low pressures tend to follow the gradient? I’m clearly not going to explain this correct.. But If we had no snow in the area wouldn’t the low tend to go more west? Now that we do have a decent snow pack wouldn’t the low try to stay more south? I realize other factors play into where a low may go too.

    1. That wouldn’t really have any impact. There used to be a belief that the edge of a snow pack influenced low tracks but it really does not.

  10. Thanks, TK

    -9º here and at the East Taunton airport, the coldest temp since February 15, 2016 when it was -10º.

    Snow day from school.

  11. Thanks TK.

    Stoughton hit the jackpot with 30.9” but there is school there today. From what I heard on the news, surrounding towns schools with less snow have a snow day. Oh well.

    1. NWS discussion About Thursday night into Friday

      Thursday and Friday…

      The main focus for impactful weather in the extended forecast period
      comes later Thursday into Friday. A moisture laden system which
      originates in the south central U.S. on Wednesday night will lift
      northeast across the mid-Atlantic Thursday/Thursday night and across
      New England early on Friday. It is accompanied by a very deep
      moisture tap extending all the way to the Gulf of Mexico bringing
      PWATS in the 99th percentile of climatology early February. This
      moisture will be acted upon by an incoming cold front, low level
      jet, and the right rear quadrant of a 300 mb jet to drop 1-1.5″ of
      QPF over southern New England from Thursday to Friday. The biggest
      question regarding how impactful that will be revolves around
      whether it falls as rain, freezing rain, snow, or a combination.
      That will hinge on the evolution of the atmospheric temperature
      profile. The low slides between a high to the northwest and one to
      the southeast. Warm SW flow aloft over top of northerly surface flow
      around the high pressure center are signaling potential for a period
      of freezing rain. It is likely that most locations will see a
      transition from rain to freezing rain to snow as the arctic air
      kicks in behind the cold front Friday. Still too soon to nail down
      these kinds of details with any confidence. Stay tuned.

      1. Thanks. Good to see Logan matching the neighborhoods for a change. This definitely was a very uniform event in terms of snowfall.

  14. 12Z GFS has the 850 mb 0C line “just” NW of Boston at 7PM
    Thursday. That looks to present an interesting scenario.

    1. I think the GFS has gone Daft. You won’t believe the SNOW
      totals!! In a moment. let it get out far enough

        1. Sure, yup. Another 27 inches for Boston. That would go over well. I’ll believe that when I see.

          Now watch the EUro will have a period of rain, then some sleet/frzing rain and perhaps an inch or 2 of snow at best.
          🙂 🙂 🙂

  17. The 12Z CMC/GDPS brings the cold air in slower than
    the GFS. We’ll see if it still gets in fast enough for a period of snow.

    1. GDPS has the snow 100 miles NW of boston at 1 AM Friday.
      Clearly a MUCH slower intrusion of the cold air.

      I would expect the Euro to be quite similar.

      1. Euro was first to latch onto the colder system and since then, has been ticking NW. Would not be surprised if it trends colder again.

        ICON is colder and UKMET has been consistent with a colder solution.

  19. Thanks TK and LOL at the 12z GFS solution!!

    Brings another 2 FEET of snow, even when using only 10:1 ratios!

    I am sure this is overcooked and perhaps the totals are tainted by sleet/freezing rain, but one thing for sure….the late week system is trending COLDER and it is MOISTURE LADEN!!

    1. Even the NWS said it was moisture laden!!
      Just a matter of getting the cold in here soon enough.

      ICON does and last night’s UKMET also did, however, the
      EURO and CMC/GDPS did not. Looks like the NAM won’t either.

      So here we go again. Model Mayhem!

    1. Then sleet around 1AM Saturday and we’re done by 12AM Sat.

      There you go.

      27 inches or NOTHING. Take your pick 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. I am guessing it might be a little something in between
        like say a period of Frzing rain.sleet and then a period of snow.

        Something like 1-3 or 2-4 inches. We shall see.

        Waiting on UKMET and EURO.

        The fun starts all over again!

  21. I know what the GFS shows for snow, but this scenario, I´d be worried about frz rain and sleet.

    Upper pattern conducive to letting the shallow cold air get way ahead of cooling off the column above us.

    I am hoping the northern stream will dominate enough to just suppress it south of us quickly. Otherwise, that could present as a high impact frz rain/sleet event in the southern half to third of New England.

    1. Yes that certainly could be the solution and a serious problem.
      Sleet is ok, but Freezing rain is not. Hope it is sleet and/or snow and not freezing rain. If it is freezing rain, hope for a very short duration of it.

  22. I need to drive to Newton for work midday Friday, and I am Not interested in navigating freezing rain on 128!

    1. Where it stays mostly snow or transitions to snow sooner, could be a good DUMP of snow. I would still favor CNE/NNE for that but we are still in the game for a good thump at the end of this.

  24. Its the strength of the southeast ridge vs the strength and position of the northern jet.

    One thing seems consistent.

    There´s no signal for a 990 mb or deeper storm coming up from the midwest.

    If there was that, I´d anticipate a warmer solution.

    But, the low is consistently progged in the 1003-1008 mb range.

    The cold, dense air, provided the high bridges to our north will overwhelm the less dense warm air without a strong low going west of us.

    1. I agree, and we have had some real significant snow and ice events over the years just from SWFE/overrunning setups like this where there is no or weakly defined low pressure.

      Regardless of the solution, I agree as well there is no way we are going to get out of this without a period of icing. I do like the GFS solution though as it minimizes the icing to 4-6 hours and gets the cold air/changeover to snow in more quickly. If the cold air leaks in more slowly, we are dealing with a longer period of icing and that would spell real trouble.

      We’ll see….the GFS solution has my attention with the start of this event now only 3 days out.

  26. Despite what the CMC/GDPS is showing, With the Deep snow pack (yes it will still be deep enough after the warm up), and the cold high slipping down from Canada, I have to believe that
    the cold air will get in here sooner, rather than later.
    Then the big question becomes, will it be deep enough to
    support snow OR are we going to get a Freezing rain and/or
    Sleet situation. If so, I hope it is very short lived and goes over to snow quickly.

      1. Cold ……. I think a day or 2 ago, the EURO had the coldest solution and lead with what we are seeing today.

        If the EURO hasn´t been overamping this midwest trof and low, which it has done in the medium range in other scenarios, then that might be another signal its a weaker low with the northern stream more influential than the SE ridge.

    1. I dont know about inland areas, but Marshfield was 34F down to 28F through mid morning on the last storm.

      The snow is not really exceptionally powdery. There´s some real water content in the snow here and there is a lot of it.

      So, there´s some importance on how this turns out here.

      A low crossing Massachusetts with a good chunk of rain and mild temps, and we are going to have some water issues.

      I´d rather the colder solution right now. I still think that will result in some melting Wed and Thurs, but not as bad.

      Hopefully, post cold front, there wont be a ton of QPF left.

  31. Even with the high clouds today just got in the car not as cold as a month. Almost February strengthening sun angle doing the trick.

  36. 12z Euro is warmer and farther NW. Keeps precip mostly rain with a brief changeover to mix at the end on Friday.

    Quite the disparity between the Euro and GFS for an event only 3-4 days out!

      1. Yeah LOL…..it was overamped and too far west with the last storm as well. I am giving the edge to the GFS on this one or at least a compromise between the two.

        If you look closely, the 12z Euro is further SE with the cold press than 00z so perhaps ticking in that direction.

        It’s a beast of a strong, cold high to the north. The issue is that the Euro is a bit more amped and progressive than the GFS so the cold doesn’t arrive until the precip is mostly gone.

        GFS is weaker and more strung out which actually results in a longer and more significant overrunning event. This keeps the precip going after the cold air arrives.

        1. Something to watch is if that high is that strong it may just end up pushing this whole thing further south with little precipitation.

  37. I know it is too early to know much but I have an MD appointment in Brookline Friday morning. Any thoughts re driving?

  38. GFS and Euro both have ensemble support for their solutions. Another battle in the making.

    Can the GFS pull another one out?

      1. Hopefully its at least a compromise of the two. Ironically, the GFS solution now looks a lot like the Euro solution did a few days ago.

        1. The models’ greatest struggles are generally at different time ranges for different models.

  39. From a met on the AmericanWx forum….

    From what I’ve seen over the years, Euro can be slow to the party in cold press events… If fact, historically, true cold presses with solid arctic high pressure involved, tend to press more than modeled unless associated with a much stronger low than modeled right now. Back in the day, the old retired NGM was the model of choice in cold press setups…

  42. Nice guess, Philip, on the year of the storm for the video I posted a while back on how Belmont used to handle snow removal.

    It was indeed the 1948 storm. Although the technique lasted past that date which is why I recall watching ignore.

  44. Right or wrong, the 18z GFS seems a middle ground to the coldest solutions and warmest solutions.

    The thing I like about it is, it keeps the accumulating snow in the northern third of New England and that makes some sense, cause it’s going to be the place that has a chance to see the entire column get cold enough.

    I think if there is a colder solution, southern New England still wouldn’t have a lot of snow, but a few hours of impactful frz rain and sleet topped by a small amount of snow at the very end.

    18z kind of offers that.

    1. I do think it lingers the precip too long as snow. Maybe some lasting light snow at the coast with a NNE wind.

    1. That’s still a lot of snow/ice modeled on the GFS! Comparing to 12z, it was only about a 30 mile shift north.

      With the Euro and NAM ticking southeast, models seem to be slowly adjusting to a point somewhere in the middle.

    2. This is from Bernie Rayno, any thoughts on it?

      “Bernie Rayno @AccuRayno 6m
      This is a very tricky forecast for the Northeast Thursday. Perhaps the GFS is to cold. However, this is arctic air which tends to move father south than you think. I would not discount the GFS at all.”

  46. Ryan Hanrahan post:

    To illustrate the uncertainty for the Friday deal… the NBM 25th and 75th percentile high temperature forecast for BDL is 30F and 48F lol

  52. 18z ICON looks very similar to the GFS in terms of location and timing of the rain/mix/snow line collapsing southeast, however it does not hold onto the precip as long hence less of the precip falls as snow.

  53. The last time I remember rain changing to snow and getting several inches was back in March 2005. Most of the time the precipitation is gone before the cold air gets in.

    1. I agree. It happens, but the occasions are few and far between. The snow to mix to rain (cold air eroding away as a storm passes to our west) scenario is much more common.

  55. I remember the March 2005 rain to snow event very well. JJ referenced this in a post above. Boy did the temps drop in no time. It got cold in a hurry, and the snow stuck (pasted) to everything (signs, windows), the way it often goes with rain to snow events. I much prefer rain to snow than snow to rain.

  57. What a turn of events this winter. Thus far December, January, and now potentially a decent chunk of February are not going per the script of most winter forecasts I saw at the start of the season. Long range/seasonal forecasting is a challenging task.

    Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    32m

    “He could…go…all…the…way!” Can #winter go the distance in the Eastern US? Likely depends on the occurrence of additional #PolarVortex stretching. I also include latest #machinelearning forecast for those interested in an early look at the blog: https://atmospheric-and-environmental-research-aer.myshopify.com/collections/frontpage/products/arctic-oscillation-and-polar-vortex-analysis-and-forecasts-early-look

    1. Euro EPS weeklies, which had previously been showing a February torch, are now near to below normal temps through end of February.

  59. 18z Euro, through the end of its run at hour 90, looks pretty similar to 12z. Perhaps a smidge colder at the end.

  60. Rumors of the mild February’s demise may be exaggerated. I’m not saying full blown torch, though it will kick off quite mild before another cold shot. But the +AO/NAO combined with a big change in the MJO likely nixes any chance of a January repeat. However, the Pacific appears poised to prevent a full on repeat of December.

    Putting it together, I like the idea of a near normal pattern the next two weeks, then a more solidly above average back half of the month. It does look like it could be an active pattern though. Pretty confident the month finishes on the warm side of average, but would not be surprised if snow is also above or at least near normal…

    2. There were a lot of tweets a couple weeks ago by Eric F, Ryan H, and a few others about winter have an expiration date at the end of this month and here we are on Jan 31 with the pattern looking decent for at least typical winter cold and storm chances through mid February if not longer. EPS weeklies just did an about face and nixed the really warm pattern it had for February.

      This seems to be another case where it looks like the pattern is going to change and the models keep kicking the can down the road. Just like the warm pattern in Nov and Dec was stubborn to leave.

      I agree the second half of the month is a wildcard and the teleconnections aren’t favorable, but then again, they arent favorable right now either.

      Re: the MJO, the Euro keeps it pretty neutral in the circle of death through mid Feb. GFS takes it into 3 and then back towards neutral. Doesnt look strong enough to me to be much of a factor?

      1. While Ryan is on my sit in the corner list, I don’t recall seeing winter would die a painful death from either. Do you know timeframe.

        2. Vicki, this was Ryan’s tweet:

          Ryan Hanrahan
          @ryanhanrahan
          Jan 20

          Winter may be on borrowed time. Euro weeklies showing an all out torch for February. If we can’t capitalize on the cold the next 10 days there will be some very angry snow lovers on this website.

          And this was Eric’s:

          Eric Fisher
          @ericfisher
          Jan 19

          Going to have to cram in some significant winter during the home stretch of January. Polar vortex increasing to near-record strength and looks to finally couple with the troposphere +AO

          Portends a pattern reversal and milder February in the east

          1. Someone re-posted that tweet today and was giving Ryan crap about it.

            I am skeptical of anything right now as the models beyond a few weeks out have been pretty unreliable. Even the teleconnections we have been talking about are model driven and suspect right now in my mind.

  61. The impression that I got from Eric is that even with a warm solution, there will still be a widespread flash freeze. I guess there is no chance of drying first before the true cold arrives?

  64. Well my poor almost seven year old car with 28,000 miles just got whacked in the driveway. A worker for snow removal backed into the drive. Bumper is gone but we will see about rest. He was gracious and got out and gave me his card and my SIL in bare feet came out and took a pic of his truck tag

        1. Very sorry to hear. At least he was honest about it and is cooperating. Still a pain to have to deal with that though, even if you aren’t paying for it.

    1. He was really nice. My daughter and son had their window cracked so heard it and came flying downstairs. He wants to pay outside of insurance which i Will happily do once I make sure of all damage. The bumper is gone but with the car in park being hit, I don’t know other damage. Our ring camera picked it up

      https://imgur.com/a/SHnLzgV

    2. And ya know what..in the end, I’m smiling as I sit here. There are a lot more good people in the world that show on social media

    3. ChaseC. Question. I do need to notify my insurance company. But will that put it on his record even if he pays for repair?

      I know isn’t really the place to ask but I want to do the right thing for my insurance but at same time don’t want to hurt him if I can avoid it

  69. 00z Euro ticks SE and colder as well. Nothing like the GFS but get s the mix line into Worcester County by 7AM Friday (was up near Concord at that time on the 12z run).

    1. Yes, it is slowly getting colder.
      6z Icon has gone the other way with a warmer solution.

      6z Gfs has more snow than the 0z.
      That is 4 consecutive Gfs runs with big snows Roughly 27,15,20 and 22
      Where will the 12z run land and which color does the model roulette end on????

      Nam still warm, but even that now has a period of sleet at the end.

      Will the GFS cave, or will it lead the way???

      1. Middle of the road, is my opinion.

        GFS good for low level cold, warmer solutions good for mild air aloft.

        Ice/sleet bigger vs snow for central New England.

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