Tuesday February 1 2022 Forecast (7:37AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

February arrives, and those of you who see the sun early today are the lucky ones. I was more optimistic about today’s weather on yesterday’s update than I should have been, as we’re going to see the sky overtaken by clouds today as an air flow off the ocean meets cold air holding in place. This may result in some snow grains and even patchy freezing drizzle through this evening, so watch out for some slick spots developing on untreated surfaces that are not snow covered. The air flow will switch from easterly to southerly by early Wednesday sending the temperature above freezing and ending the icing threat, but a few rain showers may occur from moisture that used to be part of a low pressure area to the south. We’ll be in a fairly mild south to southwest air flow later Wednesday into Thursday ahead of a slow moving but strong cold front. Other than the potential for a little sun over southeastern areas early on Thursday, are cloudy stretch that gets underway will continue, and rain generated by this front will move into the region from northwest to southeast as the day goes on, but may take until late-day or evening to reach southeastern locations. The part of the forecast to fine-tune is how long that precipitation will last Thursday night into Friday in relation to the arrival of colder air, which probably will mean a transition from rain to freezing rain in some areas, sleet, and eventually snow to end, with some accumulation possible. Of course, we have much model guidance disagreement, but that’s nothing new. My method will be the same as usual – avoid trying to get too detailed until the picture becomes a little bit more clear. Just plan for a wet to potentially wintry precipitation episode starting during Thursday and lasting into Friday. When we get to Saturday, we’re back to cold and dry, as whatever mess we have the days before will have pushed away offshore and a cold high pressure area will be sitting over the Great Lakes region. One except may be some Cape Cod snow showers Saturday from a cold northerly air flow over the relatively warm ocean water.

TODAY: Clouds move in. Patchy freezing drizzle and snow grains afternoon. Highs 26-33. Wind N shifting to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy freezing drizzle, frozen drizzle, and snow grains in the evening. Temperature steady 26-33 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind E under 10 MPH shifting to S.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain showers, favoring RI and eastern MA. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy morning but a few breaks of sun possible eastern MA and RI. Cloudy afternoon with rain arriving, especially northwest of Boston. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain likely, may change to freezing rain and sleet especially north and west of Boston. Lows 28-35. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with freezing rain and/or sleet mixing with or changing to snow before ending. Temperatures falling to 25-32. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Lows 10-17. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny except variably cloudy with snow showers Cape Cod. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

Dry/cold February 6. Passing low pressure with snow/mix threat February 7. Dry/cold February 8-9. Milder with precipitation threat about February 10.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

Milder trend. Unsettled weather most likely mid period.

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172 thoughts on “Tuesday February 1 2022 Forecast (7:37AM)”

  6. Thanks, TK

    So sorry about your car, Vicki. Here’s hoping the damage isn’t too bad, you have a great insurance company and a great garage/auto body to fix it! 🙂

  8. I just want to repeat something I posted earlier on the previous blog.

    The GFS has had four (4) consecutive runs with big snow totals. Here are the approximate (from memory) numbers for Boston:

    27,15,20,22 From the last 4 run going back to 6Z yesterday.

    The ICON has moved NW, the Euro,NAM and CMC/GDPS have moved SE, but not enough.

    The UKMET is a cold solution, although not as much snow as the GFS.

    I suppose logic would dictate a solution somewhere in the middle with a period of rain, then freezing/rain sleet then a period of snow. The question is, how long is that period of snow and what would the snow intensity be?

    Fun times all over again with a completely different set up which potentially could deliver big snows (Or not)

    Looking forward to the 12z runs for the latest changes, if any. 🙂

    1. I was saying to a friend that a blend felt more likely. Cut the GFS totals in half. One thing is certain: this storm seems like it will be gross no matter which way you slice it.

      1. It could be gross depending how long a period of ice we have. The shorter the better. Snow is the choice over ice.

        Enjoy the model watching. It was awesome with the last storm.

  13. 12Z NAM looks colder but has much more sleet or freezing rain to me…Hopefully it keeps trending colder and we get snow and not ice..

    1. For Boston North, NAM looks to be more sleet. SW of Boston looks to be a major ICE storm with freezing rain.

      Still time for things for change.

      This is for this NAM run only

  14. From Boston North and West, the 12Z NAM offers up a
    15-18 hour SLEET Fest with about 1 inch of qpf.
    Depending on the size of the sleet pellets, that would represent
    1-2 inches of SLEET.

    Decidedly COLDER solution, but I’d rather the snow.

    But the NAM has come a long way towards the GFS solution.

    Perhaps we have a trend going here.

    Next up RDPS. 🙂

    3KM NAM does not go out far enough, but at hour 60, the cold is about 50 miles SE of where it was at the same time on the 6Z run.

  15. NAM getting there.

    Don’t think this set-up is a heavy southern new england snow setup.

    Coating to an inch or 2 on top of ice/sleet, preceded by some rain.

    Yuck and slippery !!

    1. Much colder than previous run.

      Although perhaps not as likely, but this could still be a good snow set up. But I agree with you. It smells like ICE

      Curious to see if the GFS caves our keeps the course.

  16. Hi Vicki, happy to talk offline about my thoughts on insurance if you want to get my info from TK. Quick take…I’ve fixed things myself if I know there is no risk but sometimes it’s hard to be confident with that call. 28k is a young car mileage wise. I would go through insurance if I had any questions at all. That is what it is for. Others might think differently…

  20. Thanks TK. Two quick questions: is there a realistic shot that we get a material amount of snow Friday? Second, the 10 day outlook shows a low of negative 5 Saturday but the actual broadcast shows more like 18. Is the low one just a plug number? Realize it may be too early to be sure.

    2. Yes, there is, but not the amount the GFS shows

      And there may be a fairly significant temperature range Saturday AM.

  21. TK – Any chance we get off entirely with plain rain ending with the frontal passage and we dry off sidewalks and pavements? Is that scenario on the table?

    2. Not backing down on the low level cold for sure but a bit warmer aloft 25-30 miles further north compared to 6z.

      Spells more ice/less snow south of the Pike, CT and RI.

      A real mess in the works here.

      1. Seems though we have a high to the north that may help to keep cold in longer. I’m wondering if this trends colder and less harsh on the ice as we get closer.

        1. I think the GFS is ticking a bit warmer aloft and the other models are trending colder. They seem to be meeting at a more middle of the road solution. I think the idea here is that the further north you are (closer to the VT and NH border) the less ice and more snow. Further south of the Pike, looks like more sleet/ice and a shorter period of snow at the end.

          1. Thank you Mark.

            I’m sure will get a little better consensus either higher resolution models as we are getting into their timeframe.

          2. Yes, that appears to be what is shaping up. GFS looks really cold in the low levels. 925MB is quite cold.
            -8C (17F) at 7AM Friday. Plenty cold enough for big time sleet!

            850mb is COLD and 700 mb also. So I don’t know if
            the precip type is messed up or there is a layer of warmth we don’t have a chart for

            Surface and precip type:

            https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022020112&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

            700mb

            https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=700th&rh=2022020112&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

            850mb

            https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2022020112&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

            925 mb

            https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=925th&rh=2022020112&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

            I think there is a warm layer in the vicinity of 700mb give or take around 10,000 feet or so.

  24. 12z GFS with a followup coastal low on Sunday delivering another 4-8″ for most.

    Other models are off shore with this feature but something to be watched…

  25. As we get towards Wed and Thurs, lets hope the northern stream gets modeled to be really strong and the precip will be quickly suppressed. Get thru this setup without a lot of precip and escape an icy scenario.

  29. 12Z UKMET came in warmer. 850mb temps above freezing until about 7PM Friday.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=850th&rh=2022020112&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    But 925 MB is below freezing by 7AM Friday

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=925th&rh=2022020112&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    here is the 10;1 snow. Caution, there is likely sleet in this

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022020112&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Looking more and more like a SLEET FEST

    1. Continues to be very similar to the GFS, and has made a similar adjustment, only with a more reasonable amount of snow in northern areas.

  30. Marks comment above triggered something I had been meaning to post. Friday is four days away, we all know nothing is written in stone. But black ice is easily one of the worst for travel. Service technicians are very apt to have vehicles that do not handle well in show and especially in ice. Knowing of even a potential this far ahead allows them to plan accordingly and to not promise something to a customer that cannot be delivered.

    1. Yes, you are right. Planning for an icing situation should be at least as equal to opening for snow, priority-wise. The focus is often so much on snow numbers (for some reason) that more important issues can slip thru the cracks.

  31. How many excited about the NAM outside of 60 hours would be saying it’s not reliable outside of 60 hours of it was showing rain? 😉

    If excited about show, they didn’t really pay attention to the fact that it’s really showing mostly sleet and we know how that shows up on the accumulation maps. 😉

  32. NWS early feeling is that icing threat is limited, sleet threat is greater, and snow accumulation mainly minor and mainly northern half of CWA.

  33. From NWS earlier this morning. They do not expect an extended period of freezing rain anywhere…

    At this point it is premature to jump on to the colder and more
    aggressive solution, since it can be considered a low chance at this
    point, but we can`t rule out this outlier solution completely
    either. Leaning more toward NBM guidance, which gives a reasonable
    compromise, suggests transition from rain to sleet and snow from
    north to south Friday starting near VT/NH border before daybreak
    reaching Hartford-Worcester-Boston Fri morning, and progressing to
    Cape Cod Canal early Fri afternoon before reaching outer Cape and
    Nantucket later in day.

    Low level cold air should deepen quickly, such that threat of
    freezing rain is minimal during transition. However we do think
    there will be some impact to travel as temperatures drop below
    freezing and transition to sleet and snow results in slippery
    travel. It`s possible that Winter Weather Advisories will be needed.
    Best chance of seeing minor snow accumulation is along and north of
    Mass Pike, where a couple of inches is possible, with little if any
    accumulation farther south.

    Keep in mind snowfall totals are highly dependent upon the
    changeover timing. Although we have a good idea on trends right now,
    we probably won`t have a better handle on exact timing until we get
    into window of high resolution models Wednesday night or even
    Thursday.

    1. Hehehehe. Do they have my house bugged. Those are basically some of the same words when I spoke to both sons in law

  36. Overall a generally cold and active 12z GFS run there with multiple threats through Feb 17. Return of the torch still on hold.

    1. Thank you. I have a great mechanic….marked by the snow where the tire sat, we can tell it was pushed at least a half a foot so needs to be checked for damage from that …..and body shop. All in all, I’m just happy no one was hurt.

      2. I just read what happened. Sorry to hear Vicki and glad no one was hurt. What are the chances that would happen in your own driveway?

        1. Thank you! Oddly, we have had a running discussion with the town planning board who changed zoning to allow a huge distribution area down the Main Street. Our small street is often mistaken for the parallel Main Street

  38. For a very warm movie, check out
    My Father’s Violin on Netflx.

    It is a Turkish movie, dubbed sort of OK in English.

    Dubbing aside, very nicely done.

  40. Definitely a colder solution there on the Euro. Everyone goes rain to ice to snow on the Euro during the course of Friday from NW to SE right down to the South Coast.

    Interesting that the Euro drops most of the precip as rain or snow. Very thin line/quick transition through the sleet/ice phase. I think it may be under estimating the sleet potential here.

  41. TK – For you to take my scenario off the table (highly unlikely) 3-4 days out, you must be very certain that frozen precip will win out on Friday. You usually keep ALL options open until almost the last day. 🙂

    1. In this case the low level cold almost always wins out, but we do start mild because it’s a cold front coming into an already (relatively) mild air mass. I don’t think it will have any trouble slipping through.

      If this was a warm front scenario, unless we had a really strong ridge offshore and lots of support to push it through, I’d be going for a cold air damming set-up. We’ll probably deal with something like that soon though.

      1. We had just come out of our faculty meeting.

        I was lagging behind, but could hear people who had left the windowless auditorium saying, “what is this ?!”

        I was chuckling.

  43. Model mayhem once again.

    Vicki, I’m sorry to hear about your car.

    Thanks for posting the icy scene on Long Island.

  44. TK, we had this discussion before, but what is your feeling on
    the ratio for sleet. I know it is highly dependent on the size
    of the sleet pellets and the amount of air between each pellet.
    I generally use 2:1 as a reasonable estimate, but I suppose
    it could be as low as 1:1 or 1.5:1 and perhaps as high as 3:1

    Let’s say 2:1, then 1 inch of water would be 2 inches of sleet.
    Sounds like it is in the ball park to me. Would not surprise me
    if some parts of the area see 2 inches of sleet. 🙂

    Many thanks

        1. Thanks. Made sense but thought I would check. Is it more prone to sublimation as well? Hope I got the word right.

      2. Sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn’t. It’s totally dependent on the conditions after it falls.

  47. 18Z NAM looks MUCH WARMER with a slug of moderate to heavy rain! That could be a problem.

    I HATE MODEL MAYHEM!_@)#*!*#(*!(@)#*()!@*#)(!*()#*

  49. Compare 12Z NAM with 18Z NAM

    12Z

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022020112&fh=69&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=ref1km_ptype&m=nam

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022020112&fh=72&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=ref1km_ptype&m=nam

    18Z

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022020118&fh=63&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=ref1km_ptype&m=nam

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2022020118&fh=66&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Go Away NAM. I don’t want to see you anymore!

  52. You may recall I alluded to a slight difference when we returned to the pattern like the December…

    It is not a straight return to December’s pattern. Back then we did not have the cold air reservoir and the snow cover we have now.

    Something like this sets up the contrast scenario similar to the one we are going to see late this week.

    This time also, the Southeast ridge appears that it will be a little bit less prominent, for now… That may change significantly at some point.

  53. Toss the NAM. Too warm, too amped, too far NW, late to the game as usual. I think it is exhibiting its typical model bias. Ask JJ – he is still digging out from his 36″ of imaginary snow from the last storm 🙂

  54. I WILL NOT USE THE NAM TO FORECAST PAST 48 HOURS

    I WILL NOT USE THE NAM TO FORECAST PAST 48 HOURS

    I WILL NOT USE THE NAM TO FORECAST PAST 48 HOURS

    I WILL NOT USE THE NAM TO FORECAST PAST 48 HOURS

    I WILL NOT USE THE NAM TO FORECAST PAST 48 HOURS

  57. The fact that the 18z GFS spits out 5 to 9 inches of snow accumulation over 6 hours in a region that is depicted as having SLEET the entire time tells you all you need to know.

  59. Either way you slice it, there´s a big temp drop at some point Friday and probably icy conditions.

    Its not a NW wind behind the cold front, its north/northeast, kind of hints at the very least, some residual moisture falling when the boundary layer goes well below 32F.

    Of course, other options include deeper moisture falling into the low level cold air.

  60. Mark….your comment above re assumption 3-5” snow falling as sleet?? I am old so bear with me please…..does that means 3-5” sleet??

    2. The model can’t handle the ice pellets.

      Using the 10:1 ratio rule of thumb, 0.50 inch melted would be about 5 inches of snow but only about 1/2 inch of sleet.

      Snow:water is around 10:1 (with the obvious variations based on conditions).
      Sleet:water is almost 1:1 (tiny difference but not enough to notice in the amounts we get from weather systems). 🙂

    1. A bit early for specific temps this far in advance. But as a general rule, favor the colder low levels. For a day like Friday, guidance could very well be over-forecasting the surface temps.

      For example, the 18z NAM forecasts a temperature of 40 for Boston at 7AM Friday. If I was preparing a specific temperature string forecast for Boston for Friday right now, I’d probably throw a 35 there for 7AM, but keeping in mind the temperature would be FALLING from there not rising.

    1. I’ve watched a whole bunch of those kinds of videos – fascinating, but wouldn’t want to be on any of those planes!

  66. A rescue off of Humarock today. A woman thar I believe Lives on the other side of the south river saw a boat sinking. She gave the coast guard such perfect coordinates that the boat was found and all three on board rescued. I pray they recover fully from being in the freezing water for so long

    https://fb.watch/aVyu1ViqSs/

        1. She sure did. I posted a video taken of South river here during the storm. It had been taken by the same person

  67. There is currently an interesting snowfall race between Boston and Worcester:

    BOS = 36.6
    ORH = 32.1

    An upset in the making? You never know. 😉

    The race between BOS vs. NYC is pretty much a done deal. The “local” race may prove much more exciting!!! We will see. 🙂

  68. I was kind of hoping Washington would keep “Football Team” as their name, but they should be the Washington Commanders in a matter of hours.

    1. Good grief ….Thursday is oldests day to teach….she teaches outside (in an indoor) on horses. It’s been weeks …mostly due to temps which is bad for horses lungs….and now this.

      What is “this” btw 😉

      1. maybe not as much precip Friday ??? (according to what it is running tonight)

        this projection would keep southern areas mild Thursday with late day rain showers.

    2. Just the initial push from the cold front. Trough for the wave on the front shears out and keeps the boundary from getting too far south too quickly, though it does come down, so low level cold gets in, upper level cold does not. Thickness of the low level cold would determine sleet vs. freezing rain. Would still end as snow but probably very little. This is based on the NAM, not necessarily my forecast yet…

          2. Hahahaha. My girls would agree. I like this weather so maybe I wouldn’t

            Let me guess. Freezing rain accumulates on surfaces including tree limbs.

  70. No doubt that sleet is “easier” to travel in than freezing rain. Sleet does present its own set of issues, but at least it doesn’t glaze things into a smooth sheet of ice that’s nearly frictionless the way freezing rain does……….

    1. Harvey has emphasized sleet, maybe a bit of snow at the very end. An unusually wide area for SNE too. Almost down to the South Coast.

  71. The GFS presented an incredible tease!!

    Now everything seems to be shaping up into a slug of rain then some sleet and done with perhaps a coating of snow.
    nice just great.

    Oh and where did that follow up coastal go? Didn’t I tell you? Another Gfs tease
    special . Way to go Gfs.

    How much sleet is the question. looking less and less imho.

    We shall see.

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