Wednesday February 2 2022 Forecast (7:37AM)

114 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Did you see your shadow? Here on Woods Hill, I was hauling recycle bins to the curb as the sun came up this morning, and I definitely did not see one. I’m not sure what that means, other than it’s cloudy right now. And we will continue to see that mostly grey sky today as milder, augmented with some ocean moisture and some leftover moisture from dissipated low pressure to the south, moves its way up across our region today. A few rain showers that used to be part of that low may make their way northward across southeastern MA today while the remainder of the region stays rain-free. Snow melt will accelerate but still be rather modest, but will pick up the pace tonight into Thursday as continue to see mild air advected into the region. An approaching strong but slow-moving cold front Thursday will increase the rain chance as we go through the day, first to the north and west of Boston, eventually through the Boston area and southeastward. As the front goes by, cold air will get in at low levels before it does above us, and a wave of low pressure will ripple along the front to prolong the precipitation Thursday night and through much of Friday. We’ll see a transition from rain to freezing rain and sleet (depending on the depth of the cold air) from northwest to southeast during the morning hours Friday, though liquid rain may persist at the South Coast as the temperature holds above freezing for several hours, but eventually there we likely see at least pockets of freezing rain and sleet. The air at all levels will become cold enough to support snow eventually, first across southern NH and north central MA where we have the greatest chance to see enough snow accumulation to have to shovel and/or plow. The further southeast you go, the later snow will occur and the less moisture will be available to produce it, so accumulation will be minor at best, but the real issue will be slippery ground from freezing rain (especially) and sleet. And even after the precipitation ends, the temperature will continue to drop so anything unfrozen will freeze as well, and remain with us into the weekend despite dry weather, as it will be cold. The one exception will be the potential for some Cape Cod snow showers due to cold northerly air flow over the relatively warmer water. P.S. As I wrote this, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow down in PA, which according to him means six more weeks of winter! A fun tradition. Adding a little science to it: Phil sees his shadow 85% of the time and his “prediction” is somewhat true on 39% of the time. We’ll see how it goes this year. 😉

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, favoring southeastern MA. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy morning but a few breaks of sun possible eastern MA and RI. Cloudy afternoon with rain arriving, especially northwest of Boston. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain likely, may change to freezing rain and sleet especially north and west of Boston. Lows 28-35 northwest, 35-42 southeast. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with transition from rain/ice to sleet/snow from northwest to southeast. Best chance of over 1 inch of snow southern NH and north central MA. Minor sleet accumulation. Areas of glazing due to freezing rain with the most significant icing potential near and south of I-90 afternoon. Temperatures falling to 25-32. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Lows 10-17. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny except variably cloudy with snow showers Cape Cod. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Passing low pressure brings a threat of snow/mix February 7 and snow/mix/rain threat February 10. Mostly dry weather and mostly seasonable chilly weather otherwise.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Milder trend. Unsettled weather most likely early in the period.

114 thoughts on “Wednesday February 2 2022 Forecast (7:37AM)”

    1. Yes. I also hope people read the text from NWS so they know the specifics of the watch, as many people see the watch and automatically think “more than 6 inches of snow”. Not in this case. I also agree with their watch area.

      1. Nws seems to think more sleet than frz rain. on the other hand you seem to be leaning more freezing rain . correct?

  3. Thanks TK. Do you see much flooding threat on Friday? Also any take on driving to a medical appt in Brookline around 1130?

  5. Thanks TK !

    18 more weeks of winter go, woo hoo !!!

    Then straight to 95F with 70F dewpoints and zero acclimation.

    1. the 12z HRRR (high resolution) is running now.

      Maybe, in around 30 minutes, it will be out to that time frame and lets see if we can get a time off of that.

      Bear in mind it will be one projection. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. Thank you, Tom. That is very much appreciated. Not only does my daughter drive home after lessons end around 7:30 but her students parents do also.

  8. Todd Gross always said that if we only get six more weeks of winter in New England, we are doing quite well 🙂

  9. Thank you, TK. (I think..)

    I’m rooting hard for safe driving on the western part of 128 Friday 11-12 and 2-3…

  10. In the FWIW dept, the 12z HRRR high pressure is 1mb weaker than the 6z run.

    Stronger the high to the north, better chance low level cold air advances quicker. The opposite statement is true.

    1mb change not a big deal, but something to watch over future runs.

  12. Vicki, taken verbatim, first arrival of low level cold air would be 7-8 am.

    This could well initially be ice, as the initial arrival of cold air should be very shallow, then slowly grow in depth over time.

      1. Indeed, but I don’t think I agree with the model(s) depiction of that.

        I accounted for the models cooling the entire column off to fast.

        I guess that’s not verbatim, then. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. 🙂 I understand that was your thinking, but that is not
          what that particular run was showing.

          You are in team TK’s camp. 🙂

          I really don’t know, but I STRONGLY prefer SLEET
          over FREEZING RAIN!!!!!!

          1. Me too, let’s hope for sleet !

            Really hard to get frz rain in Marshfield. Will this be the rare occasion ?

            As you say, time will tell. 🙂

    2. Thank you, Tom. I will let my daughter know as this is the travel time I’m most concerned about. It is a 40 minute drive at best so definitely worth erring on the side of caution

    3. Oh wait. That is 7-8 am. This is Friday? So won’t impact Thursday night? Sorry. My bad for misreading

    1. Which is where NWS is leaning, at least according to their
      Winter Weather Watch.

      https://www.weather.gov/box/

      From morning NWS discussion:

      In lower levels, models are starting to converge as NAM/ECMWF have
      trended colder, albeit not quite as cold as GFS. Forecast soundings
      show very favorable signal for a rapid transition from rain to sleet
      (perhaps a brief period of freezing rain but that would be very
      short lived). Note the warm nose aloft (+2 to 3C) and a deepening
      near surface cold layer (-8 to -10C) up to 950 mb. Models also show
      a good slug of QPF once the transition occurs, so this could be one
      of those rare cases where sleet persists for several hours before
      changing to snow as warm nose eventually cools. How fast this all
      takes place is key as to how long it takes for slee

  17. Unless something changes, some Superintendents are going to have interesting decisions Friday.

    Don’t know what area it will apply to, but somewhere its going to be mild and rainy in that 7-8 am hour, but likely very slippery by the 2-3 pm hour.

  19. I feel as though as we get closer to the storm we are going to see things trend colder. I’m happy to see not a lot of freezing rain modeled so far..

  20. 12z CMC/RDP has freezing rain start in Boston around 1PM Friday. Considerably later than the HRRR, and the NAMS.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype&rh=2022020212&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Freezing rain til 7PM

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype&rh=2022020212&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Then briefly sleet

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype&rh=2022020212&fh=63&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Never any snow in SNE

    I don’t particularly buy this solution. It has been an outlier all along for this event.

  21. 12Z ICON bring frozen (frz rain/sleet) just about to Boston by 7AM and much of SNE by 10AM

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=neus&pkg=T2m_contour&runtime=2022020212&fh=57

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=neus&pkg=T2m_contour&runtime=2022020212&fh=57

    Tropical tidbits only shows rain or snow for the ICON, not freezing rain and/or sleet, thus I included the 2M temperatures
    for the idea of frozen.

  27. LOL…

    Ryan Hanrahan
    @ryanhanrahan
    52m

    I have no idea why meteorologists have such a problem with Groundhog Day (some NWS offices were tweeting things like trust us… not a groundhog). Of course it’s silly but it’s fine to have a little fun and embrace a bizarre tradition. Have a sense of humor.

    1. Ha !

      Its the groundhog that should be mad !

      I saw a video.

      They pound on his/her door at some ridiculous early hour then hoist the thing up in the air in front of everybody. Poor thing !

      Can’t they do this at a later hour and let him/her crawl out in peace ?? 🙂 🙂 🙂

  29. Leaning: transition rain to mainly sleet over a 3 to 5 hour period NW to SE from near or a little after dawn to mid or late morning. May be brief freezing rain, but favoring further south, hopefully not that long. Snow at end, 1-3 inches southern NH and north central MA, maybe a spotty 3+ higher elevation areas, 1 inch or less everywhere else. Sleet accumulation: 0.25-0.50 inch, less in some areas.

  30. Thanks, TK!

    I heard back from the folks at NWS-Norton and they told me the official measurement there for last weekend’s storm was 29.1″, the greatest snowfall ever there and the second greatest in Taunton (I continue to use their records for Taunton. It’s just across the street from the old Taunton office). The 1978 blizzard was 38.5″ in Taunton.

    The US national men’s soccer team plays a World Cup qualifier tonight versus Honduras in St. Paul, MN where the game time temp will be around 0 with a WCF of -15.

    I know if the groundhog sees its shadow there’s six more weeks of winter. If not, spring is around the corner. What does it mean if the groundhog dies right before February 2?
    Groundhog Day celebrations were cancelled in Milltown NJ after the sad passing of Milltown Mel.

    “We Wranglers are sad to report that Milltown Mel recently crossed over the rainbow bridge,” his handlers, known as the Milltown Wranglers, said in a Facebook post Sunday. The group did not say how old Mel was.

    2. I don’t know who you wrote to at NWS Taunton, but the person seems as responsive as the person I emailed. I was extremely impressed.

  32. Don’t forget to clear storm drains in the street while it is nice today to alleviate flooding later tomorrow when rain commences.

  33. “Did you want to talk about the weather or were you just making chit chat?”

    Who said it? 🙂

      2. A certain actor from Ghostbusters, Caddyshack and Groundhog Day?

        My students are testing today. Electronic quiz, so the computer even grades it. 🙂

  35. 12z GFS run keeps winter going full steam through the first three weeks of February (end of its run). Not a warm run and continued active with more snow/mix threats.

      2. Haha yeah he’s an… excitable kid. I’ve interacted with him over the years on twitter. When he sticks to weather stuff he can be entertaining but he definitely has a snow bias because he’s still in school and hoping for snow days lol

  39. I think either today or tomorrow, we reach the point where we have 5 PM sunsets and just before 7 AM sunrises. At least I always think it’s this week.

      1. I do like this development. I like winter, but I also like the light. The two don’t go well together, but at least for the rest of the winter we won’t be as dark as we were.

        1. Late winter & increasing daylight go well together. As of today we are basically at the half way point of the “winter weather season”. Candlemas Day. “Half the wood and half the hay, you should have on Candlemas Day.” From folklore.

  41. I’m not looking forward to Friday.

    I think some drivers won’t take the sleet seriously. They won’t put 2 and 2 together that along with the sleet, the low temps will freeze the very wet roads from the previous rain and snowmelt.

    Friday has the potential to be the worst roads conditions day for the entire winter.

      1. My concern: say you leave Plymouth and its 50F and raining at 7am.

        You work in Boston.

        Somewhere around Braintree, its raining, but unknowingly without a car thermometer to notice, the temp has suddenly dropped to 29F.

        Hard to pick that up visually on the road and by the time you notice the first car into the guard-rail, you might be skidding towards one yourself.

        2. A very legit concern, but armed with the knowledge the meteorologists from reliable sources have provided, they should be ready. Drivers will need to use extra caution though.

  42. HRRR interesting with temp falls and at this range, it might be onto something.

    Cold really funnels down the Hudson Valley and comes down into eastern Mass from southwest Maine.

    At 2pm, HRRR projects 25F in Boston, 27F in Worcester, 31F in Springfield area and upper teens right down the Hudson Valley.

    Going to be fun to track and be off the roads, hopefully.

    1. The surface is going to cool rapidly, and the cold air should be thick enough for a good part of the region to skip freezing rain and go right to sleet, but that will also allow untreated wet surfaces to ice up quickly regardless of sleet.

  44. When Harvey talks about 2 inches of precipitation coming up, is he talking about just rain or the total rain, snow and sleet?

    2. I think he mentioned 1 inch of liquid in the snow melting and one inch in new liquid equivalent, but I could be wrong.

    3. Total liquid / melted for the entire event. Over half of it will fall as rain for the Boston area. The rest will be frozen, mainly sleet.

  45. “Massive winter storm” says the media? No. It’s a frontal boundary with a flat wave moving along it. It just happens to cover a lot of real estate during its occurrence.

    Time for REALISTIC wording to return.

      1. Oh I know. Trust me I know. 😉 It doesn’t even really frustrate me any more. It’s becoming comedic. I have noticed a lot more people becoming a lot more wise to this stuff. The message is getting out there. Boston’s TV meteorologists have been quietly addressing this through their broadcasts. Makes me wonder if they didn’t secretly meet or something. 😉

  46. We’ve probably lost 50% of our snow.

    Yesterday started the rain, close to 40F dewpoints, fog.

    Except for snowpiles, we might have generally bare ground by tomorrow morning.

    1. Yep! This is why we’ll avoid the rain + melting snow flooding issue. Most if it will be gone before the heaviest rain tonight.

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