Thursday February 3 2022 Forecast (7:09AM)

98 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

By the end of today, the vast majority of the snow that fell in the recent blizzard will be gone, having been eaten away by mild air, and eventually some rainfall. It’s not going to be the type of rainfall that causes a lot of flooding as it was a generally low water content snow, so other than in some poor drainage areas, we’re going to avoid an issue with the start of our next unsettled weather event. What we are not going to avoid is a quick temperature drop early Friday and a messy, slippery result. After around an inch or so of rainfall from later today through tonight into the early hours of Friday, a sharp cold front will pass through from northwest to southeast, and the temperature will drop very quickly as the boundary passes, creating a flash freeze. This will be a situation you cannot really pre-treat for, because the rain would wash that away. So crews will have to act quickly when the temperature goes down. As for precipitation, we’ll see a transition from rain to freezing rain and/or sleet as the boundary goes by each area, the precipitation type to be determined by the thickness of the low level cold air. I think that it goes quickly to sleet the further north you are, with a longer period of freezing rain to the south before transition to sleet. The freezing rain areas will see additional ice accretion on surfaces, whereas areas that are sleeting will see an accumulation of ice pellets of a coating to about 1 inch maximum. A transition to snow will occur in southern NH and north central MA with up to an inch or so of snow atop everything else and a transition to snow will take place further south at least into areas mostly north of I-90 late in the precipitation with a coating of snow possible atop everything else. The end of the precipitation should beat the conditions that would cause snow to occur further to the south. After we dry out later Friday and Friday night through Saturday as the front moves away and high pressure moves into the Great Lakes, it will be quite cold, so icy surfaces that are not treated will remain so for quite some time. Watch for gradual improvement Sunday as we get a slight temperature moderation and some help from bright sunshine, which is starting to be noticeably higher in angle. Look for continued fair weather and a little more temperature moderation and improvement of icy ground Monday as high pressure dominates the weather and low pressure passes far south of our area.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Scattered to numerous rain showers, favoring areas west and north of Boston, midday through afternoon hours. Highs 45-52, occurring late-day. Wind SW increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain and areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52 evening, falling slightly overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with transition from rain/ice to sleet/snow from northwest to southeast. Snow/sleet accumulation 1-3 inches southern NH and north central MA, up to 1 inch south central MA through northeastern MA, coatings at most southeastern MA and RI but these areas may also have a glaze from falling freezing rain. Icy ground all areas from a rapid temperature drop to the 20s from north to south during the morning then remaining in the 20s afternoon. Wind shifting to N-NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Icy ground. Lows 10-17. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny except variably cloudy with snow showers Cape Cod. Icy ground. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Icy ground. Lows 0-7. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Icy ground but slight improvement. Highs 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of icy ground. Lows 12-19. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and high clouds. Areas of icy ground. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Low pressure passes south of the region early in the period and another disturbance approaches late in the period with shots at unsettled weather. Overall though it looks like a fairly quiet pattern with some temperature variability, averaging close to normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Milder trend. Unsettled weather most likely early in the period.

98 thoughts on “Thursday February 3 2022 Forecast (7:09AM)”

  5. The 6z HRRR now offering that when the heavier precip, falling as sleet, pushes offshore, the lingering lighter stuff, probably falling from a lower cloud level, might be freezing drizzle/mist.

  13. 12Z NAM has freezing rain arriving in Boston aroun 7AM and lasting about 2 hours before going over to sleet and ending
    around 5PM.

    3KM NAM has Freezing rain arriving around 8AM in boston and lasting 4 hours before a few hours of sleet and then ending.

      1. Initializing the most recent HRRR (14z) and NAM (12z) to Burlington’s current temp, they are both off by 1F, the HRRR 1F milder and the NAM 1F cooler.

        Pretty good.

  19. Winter Storm watch has been changes to a Winter Weather
    Advisroy across SNE

    https://www.weather.gov/box/

    Partial Text

    …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST
    FRIDAY…

    * WHAT…Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
    accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of around
    one tenth of an inch.

    * WHERE…Portions of central, eastern, northeastern and western
    Massachusetts.

    * WHEN…From 4 AM to 7 PM EST Friday.

    * IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
    conditions will impact the morning commute.

    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Rain will change to freezing rain and sleet
    around daybreak Friday with a flash freeze as temperatures fall
    sharply into the 20s. The precipitation will change to a period
    of snow before ending late Friday.

      1. I would agree with that statement.

        They did great with the blizzard as well. Those high ranges they had were realized.

    2. 12z GFS has Burlington at 33F, so 2F too cold.

      I’d trend halfway btwn the GFS and the HRRR/NAM for a 32F timelime tomorrow morning.

  22. What time will metro west area flip from rain to sleet? Hard to keep all the timing straight. NWS refers to 12z time but not sure when that is. Thanks.

  23. 12z HRRR at hr 4, or 16z = 12 noon, projected Burlington, VT to be 35F.

    Burlington, at 12 noon, is 32F.

    So, cold a little quicker in reality compared to HRRR

  24. Difficult request but I could use some help. I actually have friends who want to travel tomorrow afternoon from Boston to Bretton Woods.

    Does anyone have a guesstimate on “sleet timing” or best time to leave B-town? Any thoughts would help. Thank you.

  25. Is it fair to say about an inch of rain coupled with additional precipitation in frozen form? Any melted snow seems forecast to be under a half inch. No forecast of flooding except ch. 4 which mentioned sump pumps. Thanks.

  27. Headline on a story on WBZ.com

    Freezing Rain And Sleet Friday Leave School Superintendents With Tough Call On Closings, Delays

      1. I´m torn.

        With parent-teacher conferences tonight, a day off today wouldn´t be awful.

        But, we´ve had so much time off lately and I really don´t want to be in school til June 30th.

  29. I just heard on the radio about a TB-12 sighting at Logan Airport earlier this afternoon.

    Rumor or fact???

  30. Here is a curious question. My oil company wants to increase my budget payment and increase number of months from 10-11. The reason is because it’s been so cold. I know December was at or above normal. I don’t know January. Any guesses on the rest of winter ???

    Thanks.

  31. Longshot, tomorrow has a chance to be THE most difficult driving day of the winter. Yes, that includes last Saturday, as snow is much easier to deal with than ice. I would advise against (your friends) driving from Boston to Bretton Woods, NH, tomorrow, if at all possible. I mean it. Even with studs on the tires, it’s going to be a harrowing drive north. That’s my humble opinion. Maybe at night things will be a bit better, as precipitation will have ended. Yet, I think road surfaces will still be very icy and tricky all Friday night and even into Saturday.

        1. I think we’re looking a couple of quiet weeks in the weather department after tomorrow.

          “Winter” returns end of February / early March.

  35. I see the lack of interest when winter events are not snow makers. This kind of event is rarely a snow maker in these parts and further highlights the absurdity of the model generated snowfall maps. The Kuchera maps earlier in the week were absurd. Depending how a model’s temperature algorithm is coded, each individual model could have a different Kuchera snowfall accumulation even if they produce the same amount of liquid. This is before we even get into the fact that the method only incorporate one atmospheric level and ignores snowflake size, rimming, time of year, time of day etc. I wish the service providers would dump that output. Use 10:1, snow depth, positive change output and then we all apply meteorology. This would greatly reduce the amount of weather disinformation that circulates.

    I got a good laugh from the endless Judah tweets cheerleading a train of February snow in the northeast. The guy could find a potential snowstorm in New England on July 4th.

    As for the next few weeks – I tend to agree that it’s mostly quiet.

    Maybe late February – March for a winter return, but I could see that delayed by 7-10 days and if there is any delay you can really throw out the Kuchera maps as sun angle, time of day, precip intensity all start playing games with us.

    FYI – we got 3″ from the Saturday storm, 11″ season to date.

    1. Great to hear from you, JMA.

      11 inches to date. Wow, all sure has been quiet on the Western Massachusetts front.

      1. Yes, I have been pretty quiet posting because of work. But I read through multiple times per week.
        Most valley measurement sites here have had 10-15″ of snow this winter. Albany is only around 13″ for the winter as well.

        We will get some more, maybe even in the next 10 days that I have marked as unlikely for significant snowfall because all of the models still struggle beyond day 3, but my reading of the teleconnections, present and anticipated, as well as the strength and orientation of the northern and southern jet streams lead me to believe snow will be limited here for most of February.

  36. I apologize is this was brought up earlier, but I’ve been out of it since the weekend with the flu.

    Logan Airport reported 23.8″ during the storm, but only reported a liquid total of 0.46″ for the storm. This was pointed out to folks at NWS, and they know it’s wrong, but won’t change it. Exact quote from an unnamed NWS employee when asked about it:

    “If it were up to me we would never have let that precip number go out, Unfortunately at this point we are not changing it, but I’m still trying.
    Frankly it’s an embarrassment.
    One of my personal phrases I push in the office is “forecasts come and go but the climate history lasts forever” ”

    BTW, the CO-OP in Jamaica Plain had 13.6″ and 1.46″. Exactly 1″ more liquid and 10.2″ less snowfall.

    1. Wow.
      There’s no excuse for leaving that uncorrected.

      I had not dug into the info enough to know this. Thank you for pointing it out!

      Hope you are feeling better!

      1. I noticed those out of whack numbers when I was trying to get an idea of actual SLR. You all don’t think it was 52:1?

        Also their PNS for 1/31 has some total BS numbers. Particularly in Western MA and CT where their snowfall forecast didn’t verify. Each county in question has 2 high outlier CoCoRaHS reports. The reports labeled CoCoRaHS have been suspect since December 2020.

        It’s a shame because good post storm data helps better inform future forecasting for similar events.

    1. It is rather unbelievable (sad, at least to me). I miss 2011 and 2015 so much. A solid snow pack for weeks on end. Alas. Have to move to Quebec City for that.

    1. Still a decent cover though! You might just make it through this with a solid snowpack.

      Still 100% cover here as well but we’ll see what I wake up to…

  41. This is covid related, but more importantly, senior citizen related.

    President Biden has said that in early spring Medicare will offer eight free of charge home covid tests per month to seniors who subscribe to Medicare. I know I am not alone and many folks have also called their representatives.

    I reached out to many. Bill Fredrick’s from our Senator Fattman’s office responded Immediately. He put me in touch with some equally responsive folks at Senator McGovern’s office. I am very grateful to all.

  42. Dense, dense fog out there tonight. Picking up my daughter from softball tonight, visibility was down near zero.

    Regarding the discussion above on the NWS public information statement after the storm, I don’t know what happened out this way. None of the spotter reports from Hartford, Tolland, and Windham Counties, including my own and the other spotter in Coventry, made the final list. Everything listed is “cocorahs”. The reports appeared on the public info statements during the storm, but then disappeared after. I noticed several reports in MA as well that were there at one point but then disappeared for the final report. Not sure what they are doing over there.

  44. Sfc cold easily going down the Hudson Valley tonight and also about to shoot down the Maine coast and move south/southwestward through Essex, Middlesex counties and right into Boston.

    All of Mass will be cooling off, thee coldest air tomorrow may be in the eastern third.

    At some point late morning, Logan might be 26F and Springfield, MA is 31F or 32F.

    Big 10F+ drop possible in a very, very short time in northeastern MA down to Boston.

  47. Well, the cold has yet to arrive. still 34 here. it is not crashing, it is slowly oozing in here. How much precip will be around when it does get here?

    Perhaps we will luck out and it won’t be as bad as expected. We shall see.

    Watching temp and radar closely.

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