The Week Ahead (Re-post)

163 Comments

2:37AM

The signs are there, Alaska warming, Europe cold and snowy, MJO drifting toward phase 8 (trust me, non-met’s, you may not know what the MJO is but you want to see this if you are rooting for cold/snow here).

I have been a bit concerned about a potential snow event later next week. Also, with the “new” want-to-be regime fighting with the stubborn same-old-pattern, we continue to see models having difficulty predicting the medium range.

Taking all this into account, and adding on a hunch I have, I’ve decided to back off on the snow threat for late next week and also back off on any potential pattern change for the next 7 to 10 days, and possibly a little beyond that.

I’m going to stick with the more-of-the-same overall mild and now drier than normal pattern with periods of colder weather that don’t have the ability to sustain themselves. I still need more solid evidence before I start jumping on the big pattern change bandwagon.

So, sparing the day-to-day detail of weather systems, a good summary will be that we’ll see minor systems, changeable temperatures, and limited precipitation during the week ahead.

Boston Area Forecast…

MONDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. High 47-52. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 37-42. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 18. High 36.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 23. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 39.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 26. High 36.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 35.

163 thoughts on “The Week Ahead (Re-post)”

    1. I have not done much in the way of model looking this winter. From what everyone says, the models seem to have a storm, lose a storm and have it again only to lose it again. Everyone also says different models don’t even come close to agreement. Wake me up when all models agree on a snowy nor’easter on the same day. 🙁

    2. Hadi,

      Saw that. It offers hope for something on 1/15,17,19 and 22 with the
      22nd being the blockbuster. 🙂 Fat chance of any of them materializing!

      2. Btw, Didn’t see much with the Euro. In fact almost the entire
        season, the GFS and Euro hardly ever agreed.

        Our season long fear was that the pattern change would take
        place just in time to give us a miserable, cold and rainy Spring. Just our luck!

  3. Did I hear a sub-tropical system off of FL that could end up being named? How unusual is that for early February?

  4. Let’s look toward spring shall we? Today the sunrises at 6:53AM and will set at 5:04PM, giving us 10h 11m 18s of daylight. Fast forward to the end of the month when the sunrises at 6:20 AM, Sets at 5:33 PM with 11h 12m 57s of daylight. Now imagine this, 33 days from now the sun will rise at 7:02AM, Sets at 6:47 PM with 11h 44m 19s of daylight. Spring will be here before you know it! But we will have to go through 20″ to 30″ of snow before it arrives 🙂

    1. God I hope so Coastal, I need at least something to look forward to! To me, more daylight is about the only good thing about Spring around here. Not exactly my favorite time of year.

      1. I hear you. Some springs can be cool and damp for extended periods of times. I’ll take the 2010 Spring, I think it became warmer earlier that year. Temps in the 70’s in March?

        1. That actually peaked my curiosity about something. Since there seems to be a correlation between early season snowfall and low total season snowfall (take this winter for example), is there a correlation between early spring warmth and cooler than average summers? I don’t know the year but I remember we had temps around 90 for a couple days in April then ended up with a cool and wet summer.

      1. That run was better than the 00z GFS!
        I can see this possibly happening if the MJO goes to phase 8.
        If the MJO does not go to phase 8, you can throw in the towel for this winter.

    1. Wow – I think I can even see that. I have a couple of questions. I really want to learn more about how to read these maps. I see a potential storm here in that map on 2/22 – is that correct? As far as the amount – I am also assuming the numbers on the scale on the right are for precip amount and in liquid. Is that correct?? If I’m right so far, does that read roughly 15 to as much as a potential 2 feet of snow. I thought 15 inches snow for 1 inch rain but that may be wrong.

      Thank you 🙂

      1. Vicki,

        You were OK until the precip. What was over our area
        was a zone of about .75 to 1 inche of water equivalent. I beleive
        it was a 12 hour total. With a 10-1 ratio it would be about 8-10 inches. Looks to be cold so ratio would most likely be higher,
        so that could prodcue a foot. But that is pure fantasy at this point.

        1. Thanks Old Salty – I couldn’t remember what the ratio was.

          Is there an anti POOF chant we can all practice?

            1. LOL – conversation between my daughter and SIL this morning. SIL was leaving for class and asked daughter if she’d seen hat. She quietly said – “Yes, it flew across the room about six times at the end of the game but I don’t know where it eventually landed.”

  8. A LOT has to change for this set up to happen…
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120206%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_372_500_vort_ht.gif&fcast=372&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&cycle=02%2F06%2F2012+06UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

    1. One more question – I’m assuming that this model is giving snow and not liquid precip but hate to assume without being sure. Ok – it’s two more questions. I’m trying to understand what has to change. Do the models take the days prior to the event into consideration and therefore think the changes necessary will happen?? I don’t know if that question makes sense.

      1. Vicki,

        Yes, it would be snow.

        The models take all of the parameters (all of the weather data
        available at run time, called initialization) and runs a very very
        very sophisticated extremely complicated computer program
        to analyze the data and attempt to forecast atmoshperic conditions out in the future. So yes, it tries to take everything
        into account. (sometimes it misses when the frog farts in Bolivia) 🙂

        1. Ooops.

          I thought you were talking about the one with the colors
          for precip. If you were talking about the one Scott posted, see his comment. Sorry

      2. Vicki,
        If your asking if the map I posted is showing snowfall, it actually is the amount of energy high up in the atmosphere.

        1. oh – wow – thanks Scott. I would have never imagined energy.

          I’m going to look into a beginners class for reading these charts. I do find them fascinating and really appreciate all of the help here but figure with some instruction my questions might become more knowledgeable. Does anyone have suggestions.

          1. I have no idea what is available out there.
            You can always google…

            But you have access to an expert right here.
            Ask TK. 🙂

            1. TK has enough on his hands and I know I’ll have questions after I take a beginner class but hopefully they’ll be less.

              I should have said online class and will google it today.

  9. If this 22nd storm is still around when the Euro gets into range, then we really
    have something to talk about. This system is 384 hours out!!!! That is 16 days!!!!
    Did you ever see a forecast verify 16 days out? 🙂 🙂

  10. There is always a first time for everything but I would be SHOCKED if that happens.
    Weak little system for the mid week and a good size storm that forms on the east coast for the weekend but remains
    Out To Sea. Reading the discussion from the NWS out of Upton NY the GFS has the storm way offshore while the EURO brings
    snow to the southern parts of NJ. I always say when there is storm development on the east coast it needs to be watched but
    right now it is UNLIKELY to have any impact on us.

  11. 12z NAM is further north with the snow showers for Wednesday night
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20120206%2F12%2Fnam_namer_048_sim_radar.gif&fcast=048&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&cycle=02%2F06%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

        1. Hi rainshine – hope you are continuing to feel better. I wanted to post my every day email so when I get my car back and once we can both find a convenient time we can get together for coffee 🙂 Hope that’s ok –

          Of course anyone here is welcome to join 🙂

          cablars@aol.com

  12. I should give snow showers a 3 on the Snow Index which is MAJOR considering the winter were having.
    As I said earlier I would still keep an eye on that ocean storm in case a shift happens in the track for the weekend.

  13. I’m not sure if anyone posted this yesterday? Happy “belated” Weatherperson’s Day. Yesterday, February 5th was National Weatherperson’s Day commemorating John Jeffries, one of America’s first weather observers. A Boston native, ta boot!

    1. Old Salty – thank you so much – the met gives a good basic instruction for reading the models. I had a chance to quickly watch it. I also used the same key words and did another google search which came up with a second great place with lots of maps and instructions.

      Can’t tell you how much I appreciate your taking the time to look for me. I’m getting excited about this 🙂

      1. No problem. I was waiting for some computer runs to complete
        at work, so as I said I had a moment. Happy I could help.

        It is an exciting subject, isn’t it?? 🙂

  15. It looks like the 12Z GFS wants to bring this weekends storm ever so slightly closer to the coast, but still OTS. More organized than previous runs though which is interesting.

    1. AceMaster it something to keep an eye on. Its only Monday and plenty of time for this to change. As I said earlier when
      you have low pressure developing on the east coast it needs to be watched.

      1. Very true JJ. If anything it brings down some really cold air behind the system which both the GFS and EURO agree on, albeit short lived. Let’s see if the 12Z EURO brings it closer.

  16. Hung over from the Patriots’ loss. Not from alcohol because I don’t drink. But, I really, really wanted them to win this year. Even more than 2008 to be honest. Somehow this ragtag team held together well, even on defense, but it just wasn’t enough. Welker should have caught the ball, yes. Brady could have been a bit more accurate, too. And the three fumbles the Giants coughed up never went our way. One was annulled by a stupid Patriot penalty, the other two were lucky breaks for the Giants. I did not think Manning was as dominant as in previous games. In fact, I thought his play clock management was atrocious (he’s never been a good decision maker), and some of his throws in the second half were really bad. But, when it counted, he made the perfect pass and Manningham the perfect catch. Kudo’s to the Giants for executing.

    I’m hopeful the Bruins will rebound. They’re a very good team. All good teams go through `slumps.’ The Celtics appear to be getting back into a resemblance of playoff form. And, the Red Sox truck leaves Fenway in less than 10 days!

    Back to weather. I was pleasantly surprised this morning by the nice, chilly wind. I know it’s less chilly now. But at least it felt good to have a chilly, fresh wind as I did my 6:30am run. I have no more hope for snowstorms this winter. Maybe some snow showers, and a few cold days. I do look forward to Saturday, which looks to be my kind of day – bright, sunny, and cold. I am heading north in early March, an hour north of Quebec City where my aunt (she’s Quebecoise) and uncle have a home.

    I do hope we can all be civil on this blog. I enjoy reading (almost ) all the posts. Thank you, TK, for doing such a great job. And thank you, Coastal, for inviting me to post. I hope my posts don’t bore people. If they do, please let me know!

    1. Thanks for the link Coastal.

      I actually met David Epstein some years ago at the Star Market in West Roxbury while he was a part-time Met at channel 5. I thought that he
      was very good. I don’t know what happened, but he knows his stuff.

      This is the main idea I took away from his discussion:

      I have sneaking suspicion bare ground may be a thing of the past by mid to late month.

      We SHALL SEE!!! 🙂

      1. I believe he use to work in South Boston at TFS back in the early 2000’s. My office was there on Congress right over the bridge (milk bottle neighborhood). My company did a lot of work with TFS and some of the people their say he always was looking out the window. 🙂 The building he worked at was actually in the movie “The Departed”. The building where Sheen was pushed from and land on the street below. In that scene where he landed you actually see a exhaust vent exiting a brick building. That leads to a generator inside the building that my company at the time installed. Kind of cool in a not so glamorous way. LOL

        1. I took a class with Dave Epstein last year. I was in WAY over my head. I’ll be looking at those websites that were posted about reading the charts. Thanks.

  19. The 12z gfs does develop a small low around the 12-13 so something to keep an eye on.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120206%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_156_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=156&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=02%2F06%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

    1. oh heavens I already have a question. I just want to see if I’m understanding what I’m learning. Anywhere under or inside (in the case of the swing up off of Canada) the red line is 10C (50F) – even when the line goes as far north as it does on that map? And the millibars in the center of that are around 970 (I can’t see all numbers) Is that correct? I know 970 is low but how low would say the perfect storm or blizzard of 78 have been?

      Please tell me if I’m asking too many questions.

        1. great – that gives me a comparison. Was the rest of the reading re red line done accurately? Thanks Hadi

  20. Thank you Vicki for asking those questions re: how to read models! (Why didn’t I think of that? 🙂 )

    And thank you Old Salty for helping Vicki – now I too can learn more about models!

    1. You are welcome rainshine although I think you have a huge jump on me when it comes to knowledge of the maps:)

    1. Looks to me like the Euro shows a weak, clipper like storm in the Sat night – Sun AM timeframe with minor accumulation. The GFS however has some coastal storm development south of LI in the Sun night-Mon AM timeframe and would actually deliver a moderate snowfall to eastern CT, RI, and SE MA based on that run. Something to watch though not holding my breath!

    2. I see. I was looking at the Wundermap, and it didn’t show much. my bad.

      Even so, not much, is it?

  22. Joke of the day?
    BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
    Wed storm will do better in mid atlantic than US models see. Nice jet structure ala JMA. 1-3 local 4 DC to BOS

    1. is he seriously basing his forecast off a JMA run? The 12z Euro (not a US model I might add!) does show some light snow from DC to NYC on Wed night, but nothing up here.

  23. ***********
    Anybody on Facebook and interested (that has not already done so), please go “like” the Woods Hill Weather page on Facebook! This is going to be a more public forum but I will do the best I can to keep the bad apples from messing it up. Hope to see some of you there. And I can post pictures too! Wait til you see what the first one is…

    1. There is a tiny bit in Becket and a few towns at similar elevation. I was there a few days ago. But, it is meager at best. I’m repeating myself a lot this winter, but I’ve never seen such limited snow in the Berkshires in early February. I drive there a lot and certainly have experienced mild days in February. But, the ponds and lakes are invariably frozen solid, and there’s always at least a sizable remnant from a recent storm. This time, virtually nothing. Astonishing, given what the winter has now brought most of Europe, Asia, Alaska, and many parts of Canada. The lower 48, with the exception of far northeast Maine (don’t include Colorado, because until this recent storm they’ve been just as snow-starved), are truly the outlier at this point.

  27. Just amazing comparing the 00z EURO to the 12z EURO regarding next Monday’s potential short lived arctic blast.

  28. Above Normal Temps in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from the CPC. As for precipitation below normal in the 6-10 day outlook and above normal in the 8-14 day outlook.

    1. Yes, it’s been cold as far south as North Africa and the Middle East. By the way, I’m very sorry about what is happening to Syrians in Homs. This weekend’s slaughter in that city followed the most cynical of UN veto’s by China and Russia (two nations never to be trusted as far as international policy is concerned). I watched a BBC report this morning. It was horrifying. You could hear the sounds of mortars, RPGs, tank and artillery shells, and some light arms fire in and around neighborhoods, field hospitals, and of course throughout the streets. Very sad. Puts into perspective – a reality check – our daily gripes about the weather, Superbowl, and other mundane things.

    1. Yes, This is the same time frame that the GFS had a system
      for several days running before it lost it. Perhaps it’s coming back 🙂

  34. I do remember a winter somewhat similar to this – 97-98, or 98-99 (can’t recall which; please help me, TK, your memory is better!). Not as snow-starved, and definitely punctuated by a few really cold blasts (colder than this year’s wimpy Arctic breezes) and some snow that stuck around for more than 48 hours. That year as I recall, we got some serious cold the first 2-3 weeks of March, including a snowstorm or two (perhaps as much as 10 inches total). I remember one early March night that year (temps around 15 with howling wind) thinking that this is as cold has its felt all winter. I think that we could very well be in for a relatively cool March, April, and May. What I do not look forward to are cut-off lows in April, especially when it’s 40s and gloomy in Boston (where I live) and 60 and partly cloudy in Natick. We’ll see. The pattern will shift, but too late for any winter of significance, just enough, however, to possibly ruin our spring.

    1. Joshua,

      A pattern change in time to ruin Spring is my fear. It would have been
      nice to have it much earlier so that:

      a. we could have a Winter
      b. We could possibly have a nice Spring

      This year, it will be neither for sure. 🙂

    2. Joshua I’m worrying about spring too. If we are not going to have snow, it would be nice to have a real spring. I don’t feel as if we have in too many years. And let it come early.

      That being said I actually closed my eyes and pictured your comment ………..temps around 15 with howling wind. I so miss sitting on the couch by the window in the living room with the fire roaring and looking out through the flakes as the snow accumulates and the wind howls.

    3. I think it was 98-99. I have to double check my records. Still in transition getting all the old written or old style computer printouts transferred over.

      1. We actually did a lot better in the snow department in both 1997-98 and 1998-99 than now, relatively speaking.

        1997-98 = 25.6″
        1998-99 = 36.4″

        1. I would also like to add 1999-2000 = 24.9″

          The least snowiest in recent memory:
          1. 2001-02 = 15.1″
          2. 2006-07 = 17.1″

  36. On this date in 1978 Boston received 8.1″ of snow (still a record for the date) which was the beginning stages of the Great Feb. 6-7 Blizzard of ’78. Boston received 27.1″ for its final two-day total.

    I remember this storm well, but hard to believe that 8″+ fell from noon to end of day on Feb. 6th and became a record already just for that date. 🙂

    1. I know there were horror stories but there were also stories of people coming together. Everyone passing on the street and pointing others to store that were open and had food. It was the good that we feel in this country when faced with a catastrophic event.

  37. Posted on the FB page, and added a link to my tornado group. Also linked the page to my store’s FB page, got 2500 ‘fans’ on that page. Many of the well known chasers from around the country are in there, and they’re happy to hear from people. Especially friendly people with a healthy bit of obsession when it comes to the weather. Feel free to join and say hello.

  38. Hey TK…serious snow for Saturday into Sunday??

    NWS already quite bullish about it in their evening discussion.

    1. This Saturday. My sister in law is supposed to fly in from Atlanta. She is flight attendant for delta and can’t get stuck here in a storm so we are watching

  39. Yep, we run into him from time to time. He’s on my FB friends list, send me a FR and you can find him that way. Hoping that Jim Leonard is able to chase this year, he has had some health issues of late. But beware, he’s a bit of a prankster.

    Many may see stickers on chase vehicles this year with the letters AG. Andy Gabrielson was a well loved chaser who died last week, and there is some energy to create and sell the stickers for a college fund for his kid. One of the guys I chase with is in the midst of arranging that, I’ll update in my tornado group as details are available.

    1. Is possible to post that info here Chris/TK I have to set up a new FB page and don’t know when I’ll do that. I have a healthy mistrust of FB so need to associate page with random email address so it’ll take time.

    2. I have most of TM’s Storm Track magazines and chase videos going back into the 1980s. Got to meet him in person at a Southern New England Weather conference several years back.

      1. Here’s my tornado group:

        http://www.facebook.com/groups/217959714894305/

        You have to be in FB to access, but then just request to join the group and you’re good. Many chasers are heading to Denver next weekend for ChaserCon. Can’t make it myself but one of these years it would be fun. It seems that Discovery Channel has pulled the plug on ‘Stormchasers’ so I wonder if Sean will be back with the TIV2. We almost rammed them once, they have a habit of stopping in the middle of small country roads, rather than pulling over first, lol.

    2. Thanks LynLyn – I like the spelling – my middle name is Lyn – dont often see it spelled that way 🙂

          1. I should have added my grandmothers name was Adlyn – she didn’t like the name but my mom wanted to honor her so shortened it to Lyn for my middle – I was grateful when I was younger but now would have loved Adlyn.

            BreeBri huh??? will keep that in mind 🙂

            1. Adlyn…that’s such a pretty name!! I’ve never really liked my name, Adlyn would be so much better lol Vicki (if that’s your real name) is pretty too!

  42. To my knowledge, not one mention of the 1978 blizzard from the tv mets and today is the EXACT day of its beginning…too bad.

    Welcome aboard LynLyn! 🙂

  43. I think next year you will hear more of a mention of that since it will be the 35th anniversary of the storm.

    2. Usually they mention it every year so I am surprised. Maybe it’s the deer in the headlight response to last nights game.

  44. The last month that featured well above normal precip was October, coming in at more than 2 inches above avg precip.

    Nov and Dec were right at normal.

    Jan was about 3/4 inch below normal and Feb is already running 1/2 inch below normal.

    Because its winter, I think dryness or drought flies under people’s concerns more than during the warm season. But, it has been dry and extremely dry of late. The sun is climbing and many more sunny days like today are going to really dry things out. When I arrived home and drove over some road dirt, I noticed it sent dust flying into the air.

    I hope we get some precip and soon. The longer this goes on, we’re going to be looking at tinder dry conditions by late March and early April with strong sun and the trees still having no leaves to shade the dry ground.

    1. Keeping my fingers crossed we can get somewhat decent snows from late this month into March…snowmelt would be very beneficial.

      1. Yes, that would be good. A lot of the US has minimal snowcover. I think the mtns out west have a scary low amount of snowcover, where the snowmelt usually is the source of water during the dry summer season.

        I think a lot of the US is set up for major dryness this summer and potential extensive wildfires. I feel like I have seen the whole US devoid of precip on the radars so many times this winter, with tonight being no exception. Except for a few showers in central Florida, the rest of the country is dry.

        It also has interesting implications on where the heat ridge could set up. The west seems to have potential to really blaze away this summer.

    2. someone – remembering I sleep thru most morning news reports – the other day said we are only 3/4 inch below normal for year in precip. The Sudbury river is still higher than I’m used to seeing this time of year over on Pelham island rd Wayland where it floods every year. Is that just this area???

      And I’m missing alisonarod today. Hopefully she is working and tired from a late game night

    1. Yes…..I seem to remember a spring within the last 6 or 7 years…..I just dont remember which year it was where there were many days of red flag warnings….it was very dry and the temps were extremely warm as all the sun’s energy was available for heating. It wasnt until mid or late April that some rains came and settled things some, but there were a lot of brush fires in late March and early April.

      2. In late 1990s fire hazard was bad. Someone was setting fires in woods backing up to barn where we boarded our daughters horse and pony. I’ll never for the feeling when we rushed to the barn to find all horses outside barn tranquilized and waiting for owners to help lead them away. Fortunately fire was put out just before reaching barn

          1. Thanks Tom. I can’t mention it without actually reliving the feeling of pulling into the driveway and seeing all of those horses just tethered in the outdoor ring waiting for someone to arrive.

  46. As a golf course superintendent, no snow means no insulation for the grass, in a typical winter with colder temperatures it would spell trouble for us…but because it has been averaging above normal temps and no real arctic cold except for a day or two here and there we haven’t been seeing any problems…its true that the actual liquid precip averages get lost in the winter with all the talk of snowfall averages and such. The rainfall and litte snow melt we have had has been beneficial too, typically we have snow on the ground with a frozen ice layer at the bottom that doesn’t allow much water to make it to the soil until a good thaw…this winter has been one giant thaw! Keeping eyes on the weekend, anyone else see the system coming more north grabbing moisture from the ocean?

    1. Interesting !! Per the weekend, I have two non-scientific theories….

      A) It ends up being a big snow producer this weekend, because in winter’s like this, its usually the one that hasnt gotten a lot of advanced billing that gets you

      or

      B) In this dry pattern, the dryness seems to build on itself and something that should normally deposit precip doesnt end up doing so.

      I’ll go with theory B.

    3. Doesn’t look like the jet dips into the right configuration to grab enough moisture and throw it in here.

  47. I know we keep saying how strange this winter has been but man is it strange. Was just outside, just before 9pm, and here in Easton it’s a balmy 41.2 degrees. I was comfortable in just a sweatshirt. The crazy thing is, there’s not a cloud in the sky! It’s a clear, moonlit, midwinter night. It should be COLD! The forecast low here is just above freezing which is just mind boggling to me.

    1. Indeed ! This day’s weather is what I’d think New Mexico or the panhandle of Texas might see in winter…..a cold preceeding night, followed by a very mild, dry afternoon with not a cloud in the sky.

  48. Interesting theories Tom. This winter has been beyond odd so theory A cant be ruled out. Hmmm let’s see.

  50. Just look at the NAM for Wednesday night, much further north with that system for the mid Atlantic. So maybe something to consider for the weekend. I think the key is the PV which looks really strong which would crush any storm.

    1. True….but, big ridge in northwest Canada and NAO is fairly close to neutral. Because of this, I wouldnt be shocked if polar vortex was trended to be a little bit further west of its current projected position. If it could do that, helping to back the jet stream winds a bit along the east coast…..

      1. Ok I’m going to sleep even more depressed than last night. I thought I was learning a lot today but your post made me realize I have a very long way to go :(.

        Just kidding. I’m excited I know what the lines mean and will be happy with that for now!!

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