No White & The 7 Days

105 Comments

10:46PM

After a very mild and sunny Monday, cooler weather is in store over the next few days, and colder weather by the weekend, but the weather pattern will remain generally quiet. Even though computer forecasts are indicating chances of snow or snow showers for the weekend, I’m going to lean dry, thinking that these chances will disappear off the model runs in the next few days.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low from near 20 inland valleys to near 30 coast. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. High 40-45. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 20-25. Wind NW 10-15 MPH shifting to N.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny – best chance of the most sun north of Boston, less sun to the south. High 35-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 17. High 39.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 43.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 25. High 38.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 16. High 31.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 11. High 33.

105 thoughts on “No White & The 7 Days”

  2. It will feature the Great Blizzard of ’12 on 3/15 (Beware the Ides of March), followed a week later by the Really Great Blizzard of ’12. Then comes the early spring and the melting and the flooding and will baseball ever finally start if Fenway is underwater??

    Or something like that…..

  3. Good morning, I just returned from a trip to a game that shall not be named. We flew in and out of Chicago and spent quite a bit of time on Sunday and Monday morning driving down and up I-65. This dull winter does provide its moments of beauty, the conditions were optimal for frozen fog. Like a scene from Narnia or other sci-fi movie, it transformed the landscape into a frozen, crystal frosted landscape that glimmered when the sun finally broke through. I found an article that provides the local perspective on the phenomen:

    http://www.jconline.com/article/20120207/NEWS/202070313/Conditions-ideal-freezing-fog

    1. 00z EURO looks like it wants to bring maybe a couple inches to extreme SE MA and the Cape overnight Sat into Sun?

  5. Thanks TK !! If you are correct, that will be about 3 weeks in a row without much measureable precip (rain or snow).

  6. 0Z GFS from last night
    Next Wednesday (15th): Close pass but OTS.
    Next Friday (17th): Rain maker with a low passing over the Basket Ball Hall of Fame.
    Next Sunday (19th) : A wee bit of snow from a low sliding south of us. Norlon Trough?
    Next Next Wednesday (22nd): Big Daddy snowing on the fish.

    Good thing the GFS is not accurate that far out or I may call this Fall/Winter over, or “Finter” or “Fanter” over.

    I spotted a Dandelion in my yard over the weekend. I am not sure if it grew recently or was left over from the fall. Though I did mow that are around Thanksgiving.

    1. I vote for “Falter,” this winter only deserves 3 out of its 6 letters, and even that’s a stretch.

  8. Your forecast seems pretty spot on TK, I think the EURO might bring in some light snow for southern areas, but it seems like a pretty dry forecast. The beat seems to go on and on.

    1. One that actually materializes, of course! NO OTS and NO POOF and NO INSIDE RUNNER!

      A classic Benchmark monster with a COLD Canadian High to our North, with that Northeast Wind blowing in SNOW SNOW and more SNOW!!!! I rant. Forgive me!

    2. The ones that sneak up on you.

      If a forecast called for a 12″ to 18″ storm 4 days out and all indications stay consistent through out the storm, but in the end we only receive 8″ of snow. Most people are disappointed and call the forecast a bust. On the opposite end of the spectrum, if the forecast calls for cold and dry conditions for the next 4 days with a storm sliding south of us. But when you compare the radar with the NAM 8 hours prior to the even passing, you notice the moisture is a lot further north than previously predicted. Next thing you know it we have a surprise 4″ storm. We receive 4″ less than the much larger storm that was predicated 4 days out but it was much more interesting and exciting to watch the surprise event unfold.

  13. I would have to say a Noreaster and one that will be talked about for years to come. I don’t think will have one of those this year. I would be happy with a 2-4 or 3-6 inch snow event at this point.

  14. Nice pictures of Amsterdam and vicinity in the snow and ice, if anyone is interested:

    http://www.parool.nl/parool/nl/2848/FOTO/photoalbum/detail/3155382/331562/6/Winter-in-Amsterdam.dhtml#photo

    Unfortunately the blocking high over Scandinavia is showing signs of breaking down by this weekend. So, they’ll be back to gray skies and rain by Sunday as the Atlantic lows begin their inexorable march from west to east. A short-lived but memorable 10-day period.

    Let’s hope we get something, anything at this point, that reminds us of winter.

  15. My perfect storm is a benchmark storm that goes under serious bombogenisis and sits for about 24 hours with heavy banding of snow in coastal areas!!!

      1. i would like a storm right over the cape or islands that dumps 6 or more inches of snow around 495 and 128 i would like 1 foot.

        1. My favorite snowstorms are the one’s that are followedby several days of cold behind them to sustain the snowcover. This, in contrast, to the light snowfall we received in mid January that was seemingly gone in about 2 days.

  19. I tried to post a picture on WHW FB Page but it didn’t take. I assume it may have to be approved before it will appear. Probably a good thing.

    1. It should work if you “like” the page. I will check it out when I am not mobile..about 3 PM.

  20. I saw snowdrops already poking through in my backyard this morning…unusually early this time. They are (for me) always the first flowers of the new year followed next by crocuses, etc.

    1.snowdrops
    2.crocuses
    3.daffodils
    4.tulips

    Fwiw…that AccuWeather 15-day forecast has snow for 2/20-21st which is actually right on schedule. I have been predicting all along that our first snows will occur during February School Vacation week (19-25). We will see. 🙂

  24. Just want to chime in on news reports suggesting that the recent cold in Europe is due to melting of polar ice caps. This kind of news reporting bothers me to no end, because it invariably involves journalists who know next to nothing about meteorology, and does not include scientists on either side of the global warming debate. It’s why some (myself not included, by the way) are skeptical about global warming. For good reason, as the recent cold in Europe has absolutely nothing to do with the polar ice caps; nothing, zero, nada. Until early last week, this winter had been uncharacteristically (even extremely) mild in places that normally experience serious Arctic outbreaks, like Helsinki, Moscow, St. Petersburg, Warsaw. Other parts of Europe (as I have said before) had experienced little or no frost, leading to signs of very, very early spring in Wales, England, Netherlands, Belgium, France. This was worthy of reporting and finding explanations for as it was truly anomalous (historically unprecedented in a number of places). But then a cold Arctic high (practically stationary for the last 7 days; this will remain so for another 2-3 days, before it breaks down and treks eastward) established itself, along with a major dip in the jetstream, carrying cold air as far south as places like Rome. All of this has nothing to do with global warming or melting ice caps. These dips in the jetstream and Scandinavian highs happen almost every year. Generally not quite to the extent as this year. But even so, no records were broken whatsoever. Even Rome’s snowfall did not break any record. Rome got a heavier snowfall 25 years ago, and even heavier ones 40 years ago. Certainly, the Ukraine, Poland, Germany, and Holland have all seen even colder weather in the past two decades.

  25. I should have added one thing to my commentary above, and that is that in the CNN and BBC reports I read this morning they mentioned erroneously the polar area becoming milder than normal in January. This is patently false. If anything the really strange thing about this winter was the fact that the serious cold near the pole somehow did not spread southward as it normally would until recently (in Europe). The Arctic was not exactly melting in January, as seems to be implied in these ridiculous articles.

    2. That is hilarious – such precision! The bottom two zones together are 0″ – 1″. The top one is “Up to 1″”. I guess the reason for the extra zone is the “all surfaces” description.

      Just the fact that there are “grassy areas” at this time of year is remarkable.

  27. 12z ECMWF delivers up to .4 QPF Hartfrord to Springfield to Worcester on Saturday/Saturday Night. Only about .1 in immediate metro Boston. Hey, its something. Too busy to post my thoughts on it, but thought I would throw it out there.

    PS-I think its overdone.

    2. I’d take 4 or 5″ of snow here here in northern CT. That would be a monster. Though the GFS is bone dry for the same period so I’m not going to get too excited.

    3. I was going to ask you anyway, but the “PS” is good enough. Once again we are in agreement.

  29. Could get a little dose of snow but nothing big. I think the bigger story will be the temperatures over the weekend and I think a lot of places will be stuck in the 20s on Sunday.

    1. Agree. Question is do we continue this trend right to spring or go through
      a short stormy period. I am not going to venture a guess on that one.

  31. I think any stormy weather will hold off to later next week. My gut tells me the storm for the weekend will remain offshore but whenever you have low pressure on the coast its needs to be watched. Even if it does impact us I don’t see a blockbuster.

  32. Just amazing how cold the 12z EURO is showing for early next week.
    Still can’t toss the weekend snow potential just yet.
    I wouldn’t look beyond next Tuesday right now.

    1. How come. I was in the thinking that this weekends event was an OTS. How cold is the Euro showing for next week.

      1. The Euro just keeps showing more of the same, but is slightly more excited about something on Saturday (which I have my doubts about – at least pretty certain it won’t be anything serious).

        Big cold blast Monday, but it’s gone quickly.

  33. Scott I totally agree with you on that for the weekend.
    John there something around the 16th and 17th that Hadi was mentiong earlier but it looks like a rain event.

    1. I asume both you and Scott are talking about this weekend right JJ. I would like to know more of your thoughts for this weekend if you will.

      1. Were talking about the weekend. One thing for sure is it is going to get colder as a cold front comes through.
        Now a wave of low pressure looks to form on the front. The question is how close does it come. It looks right
        now and this could change that it should remain well offshore but anytime you are dealing with a coastal low you
        have to watch for any slight changes in track which could make a big difference.

    2. Great read and thank you, Scott. What really was depressing were the words, “If this were any other winter, warnings of a potential major snowstorm would be in the headlines for this weekend in portions of New England….”

      Amazing really.

      Are there thoughts about timing or is that far too soon since any accumulation is still in question. Saturday 3-4:30 is the John Adams function in Brookline I am looking forward to and would hate to have a problem getting there. Although I’d cancel anything at this point for snow.

  35. This is a brief paragraph that I took from Brett Anderson’s blog on Accuweather.

    As the energy (trough) associated with this Arctic front approaches the Northeast U.S. coast on Saturday, I expect to see a storm to intensify somewhere just east or southeast of Cape Cod, Mass. Even though the American models are not too excited about this, I have seen this type of situation lead to a rapidly intensifying storm over the Gulf Stream which can lead to a sudden snowstorm over eastern New England and extending into the western Maritimes. I am confident there will be an intensifying storm; it’s just the location of where it develops that’s still way up in the air. Something to monitor over the next couple of days.

        1. I just think It’s a matter of when. I don’t think we escape this winter without at least one or two good snow events.

    2. Watch the position of the vortex dropping through eastern Canada. If you don’t see a lobe of vorticity coming around the back side and digging it and almost retrograding it slightly, then forget any storm Saturday. That energy will whip around the base of that thing so fast and sling-shot out to sea. That’s what I think happens right now…

  36. 12z runs: GFS vs. Euro. Winner = GFS.
    I think the precip jumps over eastern New England Saturday only to land in the ocean. If we get any precip at all it would be a few rain or snow showers ahead of things, and a few stray snow showers that travel from the Lakes into New England Sunday and/or Monday. Coldest day will be one of those 2 (leaning toward Monday). I’m not really sure how things go after that but I’m pretty sure it warms up fast Tuesday/Wednesday next week. Next storm has a better chance of going inside, but is it just a weak low with a trailing cold front or something a little more significant? I have no idea yet. Too far away.

      1. Don’t laugh coastal…I actually have seen a couple of insects flying around indoors just last month! 🙂

  37. On this exact day, Tuesday Feb. 7, 1978 Boston was undergoing the second half of the Blizzard of ’78 with a whopping 19.0″ of snow! IIRC snow finally ended just prior to or after sunset.

    Also as for the present, Todd is thinking “accumulating” snow for Saturday. Harvey is more into “watching” mode and Pete is “poo-pooing” it…quick snow shower at most.

    TK…from what I have been reading from your posts, your thinking is like Pete’s if that much, correct?

    1. Sooner or later Pete will be wrong. So far he’s been accurate far out.

      Spectacular full snow moon tonight. The clouds give it a Halloween type effect

  39. We will see what happens on Saturday, but I really believe the “serious” snow begins the week of the 19th (school vacation) into March. 🙂

    Btw, the WBZ trolls are really giving it to BaileyMan today. My bet is he could care less, lol. 😉

    1. Interesting discussion from the NWS out of Upton, NY For Saturday
      DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT…WITH
      THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE…AHEAD OF
      WHAT CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AT LEAST AS A PROTRUDING LOBE FROM THE
      POLAR VORTEX. NOTING THAT THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN EVEN ITS
      ENSEMBLE MEAN…AND THEIR IS GOOD SUPPORT FOR THE ECMWF FROM THE
      CMC-GLOBAL…OPTED FOR A CMC-GLOBAL/ECMWF BLEND FOR FRIDAY
      NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT.

      WITH THE SLOWER TIMING TO THE SHORTWAVE…IT ALLOWS FOR THE PASSAGE
      OF A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF IT…ALLOWING FOR THE SET UP OF A FAIRLY
      STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE SHORTWAVE THEN
      INTERACTS WITH THIS…YIELDING A LOW S OF LONG ISLAND BY MIDDAY
      SATURDAY. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
      SUNDAY MORNING. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
      REGION…DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE FRIDAY NIGHT…AND CONTINUING INTO
      SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO NE AS THE LOW PULLS
      AWAY. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO EXACTLY HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL
      ULTIMATELY BE IN PLAY OVER THE REGION…SO TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY
      CALL ON AMOUNTS. BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
      LEAST A LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.

  41. Has anyone noticed that in subtle details, the GFS has been more consistent than the Euro for the last couple days?

    I have.

    Hence… No change to the forecast in the upcoming update, relying more than usual on the GFS run.

    1. hmmm…TK, I have to respectfully agree and disagree with you to some extent. As far as the GFS nailing this boring dry weather, its been great. It’s even been spot on as far as timing and extent of warm ups and cool downs which to me are the subtle details. As far as forecasting more complex atmospheric dynamics that make up the key ingredients in a snowstorm, I think the EURO has a bit of an edge. Not saying we get this storm, but I don’t think we should dismiss the EURO yet just because it hasn’t been performing well on the little things.

      1. My general feeling is that the Euro is superior overall. I have been flipping back and forth for each event depending on how I feel the models are performing. So far so good.

        When we have to depend on what amounts to a small buckle in the polar vortex to ignite a storm, odds are not in our favor, based on the general expected position of the vortex and the trough axis.

  42. By Sunday, the sun is nearly 34 degrees above the horizon, nearly 10 degrees higher than the solstice. I think its late October strength sun by this weekend. I always enjoy watching a stronger sun battle a fairly cold airmass. Its that time of year when at midday, it can be 20F out and the inside of the car is pleasantly mild.

    1. I’ve been opening our side and front doors this past weekend/week as the sun moves around and have been amazed at how it’s been warming the house. Thanks for the info Tom

      1. Your welcome. Saw the rays of sunlight hitting the treetops just before 7am and could see the top of the sun near the horizon at 5pm. Solar winter is about done and I am so happy about that.

  43. TK agree with you straight up here. You explained what I ran out of time to do this afternoon.

    I agree on the GFS in the 24-120 range. ECMWF and its ENS have been ok to pretty darn good 192-360. The NAM has stunk this winter too cold, too wet. ECMWF inside 60 hours has been equally horrendous.

  45. well here is the cold. A deep freeze in europe. with records being broken left and right. I would never want this to happen here in the northeast with the amount of death. 🙁 ritewaytravelagency.com

  46. Pete Bouchard says temps well into the 40’s for next Wednesday…yet another short lived arctic air mass.

    1. Yes I just saw that on his blog. That’s just how It’s been going and I just wonder If this is how It’s going to finish. Weird.

  47. We are working on a current stretch of 11 days with only a trace of precip, back to Jan. 27th when nearly .9 inches of rain fell. From Jan 26 back to the 13th, there was only .8 in total precip and other than .9 inches on Jan.12th, the first 11 days of the month totaled .05. (Data from Taunton Climate section)

    If TK and JMA are correct about no Sat snow, then that could add on another 7 to 10 days of dryness, not to mention more cold, dry air to dry out the top layer of ground. Bring a stronger late Feb or March sun into dry conditions a long range forecast of sunny and milder, near 48F….will turn into sunny and 55F or 60F.

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