Wednesday February 9 2022 Forecast (8:37AM)

109 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

High pressure brings fair weather today. The re-frozen melt-water from last night will re-melt again as the temperature climbs well above freezing. High pressure shifts offshore tonight and a cold front approaches from the west on Thursday, which will be a milder day. That front will move through with cloudiness and perhaps a few rain showers later in the day Thursday west to east, introducing slightly cooler but dry weather for Friday. The up-and-down continues Saturday as we warm up again ahead of a stronger cold front. This front may bring a rain shower by Saturday evening and send a stronger shot of colder air into the region for Sunday, at which time a wave of low pressure will be forming on the front as it tries to move off the Mid Atlantic Coast. Some of the guidance we look at has been taking this wave close enough to produce a swath of snow across southeastern New England on Sunday, and this chance will be reflected in the forecast at this time, with fine-tuning to come. There is also the chance the system is too far offshore for impact.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few afternoon rain showers. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day or evening rain showers possible. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a rain shower early evening. Lows 20-27. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing overnight.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

Depending on the track of a low pressure wave, we may see snow or snow showers lingering especially in eastern areas early on February 14, otherwise look for a cold and mostly dry Valentine’s Day and February 15 as well, with just a few snow flurries possible from a disturbance February 15. Moderating temperatures midweek next week with cold front due by later February 17 or early February 18 that may bring some rain/mix/snow followed by a return to colder air for the very end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

Active pattern develops with one or two storm threats heading into late February with more up-and-down temperatures.

109 thoughts on “Wednesday February 9 2022 Forecast (8:37AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Interesting model output once again. Here is a brief model summary:

    EURO – a total miss well off shore
    CMC/GDPS – a graze with about 1-3 inches of snow Eastern
    ICON – A Healthy graze with 2-5/3-6 inches Eastern
    GFS – A Healthy graze with 3-6 inches Eastern
    UKMET – A Full blown snow storm with 8-12 inches (10:1) all over SNE with likely more with the ratio.

    NWS take as of 7AM this morning:

    * Offshore low pressure may pass close enough to our region
    sometime late Saturday night into Sunday night to provide some
    light precipitation.

    I like TK’s realistic wording.

    My question is: Is the Euro the real deal or the OUTLIER?

    Waiting on 12Z suite to see what’s up today. 🙂

    1. Here is the 0Z UKMET total qpf in inches.

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=qpf_acc&rh=2022020900&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      Multiply by 10 and you get 10:1 snow.
      Think about 12:1 up to perhaps 15:1 ratios on that.

      Pretty sizeable snow storm IF it should materialize.

      Not for nothing, but this map indicates some banding with
      Part of Eastern MA NOT under bands for some of the storm.

      Here is the 10:1 snow map

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022020900&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  3. Would love it Sunday>Monday for a post Super Bowl Snow day–a 4 day week before February break would be quite welcome by my teachers!

    3. My sons school has always had the day after SB off for selling so many calendars during there only fundraiser, this is his 4th year after SB having off .

  6. Just curious TK or anyone else. What is you general outlook for the balence of winter? Used to use the Super Bowl as midpoint but that was with a 16 game season. Hard to believe roughly 6 weeks until April 1st. Thanks.

    1. Haven’t changed the overall thoughts. The general regime is milder February than what we had in January, but a “less mild” version of what we had in December. Southeast ridge makes more appearance but with colder air and more snowcover New England northward we have more ability to sneak cold shots in too.

      I think this is the longer term regime heading toward the equinox but we have to keep an eye on a return to “winter” for an approximately 10 to 15 day period late February to early March.

      That’s the overview. The details – you know how that works. 🙂

  8. CFS long range supports the idea of a little return to a bit of a winter weather pattern somewhere in the window of February 20 – March 10, maybe weighted toward the second half of that window. Given past history of model prediction of patterns, wouldn’t surprise me if that window is March 1-15 by the time we get there. 😉

    1. What I have always found interesting is that there are actually more snow opportunities thereafter in late March into April than in November/early December. Never been able to figure that one out. 😉

      2. This is an easy one since we’ve mentioned it multiple times annually…

        November and early December are mid to late autumn.
        Late March into April are early spring.
        While your overall average temperatures for these 2 periods are not significantly different, the average upper air is milder in late autumn than it is in early spring, and your ocean temperatures are much milder in late autumn than early spring. Using that information, the answer is very simple. Our regional climate dictates that it’s easier to snow in early spring than it is in late autumn. Always been that way.

  10. Trying to back up on the 500 mb chart from 120 hrs out, I believe the disturbance in question probably hasn’t hit land yet somewhere out in the province of British Columbia.

    Looks like it would then come over a western ridge, move southeast through the western Great Lakes, etc.

    Might be getting close to British Columbia, so maybe its getting slightly better sampled. As time passes here the last 24 hrs, seems to be trending to a more impressive, deeper trof with a flow along the east coast to bring it closer around Valentine’s Day.

    1. Depends on where we’re talking, but I’ll just make an educated guess that we’ve seen over 50% of our seasonal snow for the region. That sounds like a cop-out, and it kind of is. I can’t really go by much more that climatology. February 2 is the half way point of “winter weather season”. But we know that the skewing either side depends on the pattern. We had a pattern, for example, that produced more snow at Boston than at Worcester for the first half of winter. The next upcoming threat is also greater for Boston versus Worcester as it stands right now, but I can pretty much bet $ on Worcester finishing ahead of Boston when the season is over.

      2. If you remember correctly we had a snowstorm last year during the day on super bowl Sunday . It still early on this one , tine will tell .

      1. Nope, but interesting just the same. How will it evolve?
        Will it pass harmlessly out to sea? Will it be a progressive wave? Will it amplify and come closer?

        Fun to watch regardless of what happens and honestly
        at this point I don’t really care what happens. Miss or big hit.
        🙂

  18. Plow people are hoping for a miss as they will be working during the Super Bowl if the 12z GFS is correct.

  21. Are we going to have a system that starts out being forecast to go well off shore to ending up being an INSIDE RUNNER???????

    Would not surprise me in the least. 🙂

  25. Always hope for good weather super bowl day since so many folks will be hitting the road perhaps bit impaired.

  26. I agree with you DB. The Super Bowl is like a holiday where people gather to watch the game and I never want to see snow prevent people from gathering.

  27. I just heard somebody say that today’s high temps in the lower 40s are “incredibly mild for February”. I disagree. The average high temp in Boston for February 9 is 38. Lower 40s are not “incredibly mild”. They are “slightly above normal”.

      1. Nah. It wasn’t on radio, but I keep the source to myself for the most part. It’s just that I’d like to see proper perspective used. I’m not a fan of exaggeration like that.

  29. Thanks TK.

    I was a bit more impressed with the Sunday/Monday system yesterday. Still can’t rule out a closer pass, but I’d lean about 70/30 in the “flat”’camp at the moment (not flat Earth :P)

      1. You’d be surprised at some of the things people actually believe out there. Makes a flat earth belief seem tame. 😉

        I still have to explain over and over that those things you see behind commercial jets in the sky are condensation trails. When they tell me they are “chem trails” I say “Yes, they are made of hydrogen and oxygen. I guess that makes them chemical trails after all.”. 😉

    2. “The Flat Earth” … a great album (1984) by Thomas Dolby. No, he’s not a Flat Earther. The title in this case was kind of a metaphor for contentment with a small place in the world.

      “The earth can be anything you want it. Dark and cold or bright and warm. Long or thin or small. But it’s home, and all I’ll ever have, which may be why for me the earth is flat.” … From the title track.

  31. I’ve also heard people talk about how “incredibly mild today is.” Sometimes I wonder whether these people have actually lived here and are aware that today is far from being incredibly mild. In fact, in stark contrast to many winters in our recent past we have not had `incredibly’ mild days in January or February. Also, there really wasn’t a January thaw to speak of. And while December was mild, there weren’t many very mild days.

    Just to prove that today was not incredibly mild, I slipped and fell on an icy patch on the bike/pedestrian path on the Esplanade. A lot of ice has melted and there plenty of puddles of water around, but in shady spots there are also some very slick and icy spots. It’s not warm enough to melt everything away.

    1. I’m comfortable enough with the 18z GFS & 12Z ECMWF to feel they are right in the ballpark. As we start to transition, the completely suckage of models after day 3 is easing up a little bit. As of late afternoon, Sunday is day 4. Enough there for some light snow into southeastern areas and for me to leave the forecast alone with a re-assessment for the morning update. 🙂

      The old “rule” about 06z and 18z data being deficient for model guidance is no longer applicable. It hasn’t been for a while actually. Balloon data now makes up a much smaller percentage of data input for initialization which is done much more by satellite info now than it ever has, that the amount of “value” the balloon info adds is nearly negligible.

      2. Agree and agree TK! Models, while not great, are definitely doing better in the 3 to 5 day range, with much more typical errors. And I’m pretty well sold on the mostly OTS solution.

        And spot on regarding 6z/18z runs. If there’s a gripe to be had with those, it’s just that you could argue we really don’t need global modes running so often. But data quality is not an issue.

          1. Probably, but not definitely. We still won’t really know for sure until we’re about 48 hours out. There is very possibly going to be some snow removal needed for at least parts of the area.

    1. It is time. And now maybe people can stop dishing out the hate the guy never deserved. No, he never won a cup, he had his bad games, and he left to take care of his family issues, which for some reason raised the ire of people who don’t actually “get it”. But his #’s don’t lie. He was one of the best we’ve had wear the sweater. He just didn’t win it all – and some fans will never forgive him for that, even though he really could have used some better team support in the games that really mattered. Oh well. It’s done now. A happy retirement to Rask. 🙂 Thank you for being a great Bruin!

      1. As you know…..you and I have very similar thoughts when it comes to sports and sports figures. I thought of you today

        Daughter and I were talking about sports figures this morning. (Seems we did a lot of talking today.). It started with Brady who gave us 20years and we were upset because HE didn’t thank US. And I admit to having second thoughts about his speech. But what an amazing point she made.

        Her view…..simply put….is fans look at greats and all sports figures as if they own a part of them; and when they do something that doesn’t gel with that ownership, they are denigrated.

        It is an interesting relationship to be sure

  35. CPC 6-10 temps: Near normal, which is arrived at by a cold start, mild middle, and colder end to that period of time.

    CPC 8-14 temps: Above normal, which is a reflection of the more pronounced return of the SE ridge during that period of time.

  36. Agree 100% with you, TK, on Rask. He’s a very interesting person, which very few are in the sports world. His interviews often revealed a quirky sense of self, the world around him, and the role that hockey and his family play in his life. His honesty and lack of cliches was so refreshing. He played the position VERY well. Winning isn’t everything, contrary to what Lombardi said.

    Or, perhaps I should put it differently. He did win a lot, and the team did well when he goal-tended. But, he didn’t win the big one. And, that is NO shame. Ted Williams never won it all. Carl Yastremski didn’t win it all. Dan Mariano didn’t win it all. These are fantastic athletes, who deserve our admiration.

    1. The bigger question is, did they not win BECAUSE of Rask. Some would say that was the case on a couple occasions. Not saying I share that opinion, but it’s out there.

          2. I have to ask how an entire team is constructed so that it’s entire failure or success is dependent on one person….especially in sports where injury is a reality

            Not disagreeing. Just trying to understand

  37. Thanks, TK!
    Sorry to hear about blown tires and damaged rims to the potholes. Hope basements are staying dry. Our sump pump system is cranking!

    Funny thing on the commute home this afternoon: I was dodging so many potholes on the side streets that the computer in my car thought I was either drunk or asleep and posted an icon of a hot cup of coffee with the warning:
    “Please Take a Break!!!” 🙂

  38. Just read Tuukka´s retirement statement.

    I’m glad Tom Brady gave as much love to New England as Tuukka did.

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