DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 10-14)
Low pressure passes north of our region today through tonight, dragging a warm front through the region this morning which has clouds, areas of fog, and maybe a touch of very light snow with it, and then we break into the warm sector with a sun / cloud mix but also the chance of a passing rain shower as the cold front approaches and passes later, but it will turn out to be a fairly mild day with many areas at least making a run at 50 and a few exceeding it. Tonight, slightly colder air returns and tomorrow will be a cooler day than today, but a nice one as high pressure moves into the region. This high will slide offshore Saturday and we’ll warm up yet again, with increasing wind ahead of a stronger cold front. This front may bring a rain shower later Saturday and will introduce a much colder air mass by Saturday night through the rest of the weekend and Valentines Day Monday. What we are watching for is the track of a wave of low pressure that will form on that front as it moves offshore of New England. It should be close enough to at least graze the region with a light snowfall during Sunday to early Monday before it speeds away.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog and a slight chance of very light snow this morning, favoring areas west of I-95. Chance of a brief rain shower this afternoon. Highs 44-51. Wind S up to 10 MPH early, then SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day rain showers possible. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a rain shower early evening. Lows 20-27. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing overnight.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of snow. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Chance of snow early, then clearing. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
Dry and cold February 15 then moderating temperatures middle of next week with rain showers possible with a cold front later February 17 into February 18 before windy/colder weather arrives at the end of the period.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
Active pattern develops with a couple unsettled weather threats heading into late February with more up-and-down temperatures.
Current leaning: Regional graze for Sunday – but close enough for accumulation that you have to do something about from I-95 southeastward. Numbers will appear on tomorrow’s update.
Thanks TK.
Good morning and thank you TK.
Pretty foggy here this morning and earlier it was freezing, but not now.
Thanks TK.
Thanks TK !
Thanks, TK.
Thank you, TK
12Z NAM has the snow starting after the front crosses the area and mostly https://ibb.co/hy5N9zTkeeps it going, albeit light.
Here is Kuchera snow as of 7PM Sunday evening
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2022021012&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Here is a surface loop
https://ibb.co/hy5N9zT
Sorry surface loop is in there twice. Just look at 2nd one. π
Thanks TK.
Thank you Tk
The 12Z CMC/RDPS isn’t very interested in the Sun-Mon system at all. It sends it to the fish. π
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype&rh=2022021012&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Thanks TK.
And ICONIC solution for Sunday…
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022021012&fh=93
The ICON has been pretty consistent for days!
ICON “true snow” as opposed to false snow or Kuchera snow or 10:1 snow.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2022021012&fh=120
In ICONIC terms, that’s a pretty solid hit for Eastern sections.
Just once I would like to see some model consistency 48-72 hours out!!!!!!!!!
Hasnβt the Euro been flat for days?
The Euro is not only deflated, it’s constipated!
GFS seems to want to take a sea cruise!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022021012&fh=75&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cxj1KPQWRRg
I have seen this guy perform live. He was amazing!!
GBAGL!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022021012&fh=81&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Is that a new Word for Wordle? π
From Dick Albert. It means
Good-Bye and Good Luck.
Nice.
I just danced around the house. What an awesome video start to finish. Thanks.
From this morning’s NWS discussion
* Offshore low is looking more likely to bring light to moderate
snow to portions of southern New England Sunday into Monday.
Looks like the Cape and Islands could see more snow. They’ve had quite the season.
Powerful waterspout hits Cuba. https://news.sky.com/video/trees-uprooted-as-powerful-waterspout-makes-landfall-in-cuba-12537990
That’s a full fledged tornado!
12Z CMC/GDPS also takes a sea cruise
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype&rh=2022021012&fh=90&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Only brushes the Cape and Islands with a minor accumulation:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2022021012&fh=108&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Here is the 12Z UKMET 10:1 snow. Where is it????
OH, it fell on the fish!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022021012&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Sure looking like OTS and see ya later!
Thanks TK.
My Weekend Outlook is up: https://stormhq.blog/2022/02/10/weekend-outlook-february-11-14-2022/
Thanks! Still some roller coastering until we hit a flat low section for a few days!
Nice little line of rain showers north of the city – even an embedded downpour on I-95. It just went through here – heaviest was north of me but you could see it visually.
I hang my head in shame. Happy belated birthday WxWatcher. So sorry I missed it but hope you had a perfect day.
Aww thanks Vicki! I was actually traveling on the day itself but was celebrating over the weekend and it was most certainly a good bday π
Makes me happy to hear. π
Happy belated birthday.
I donβt think Sunday will be an impact at all & itβs just a hunch .
Light to possibly borderline moderate snow event I-95 belt southeastward Sunday remains my current thought.
1-3,2-4 or 3-5,3-6,4-6
Which is it?
I am guessing you are on the fence between
2-4 and 3-5 or so.
I guess we will see how it plays out as Iβm just hunching & you are the expert . Iβm just going on an inexperienced hunch & saying it will not be a plowing event & I could be wrong .
18Z NAM still wants to throw “some” snow our way.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2022021018&fh=78&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Kuchera Snow with more snow to come.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022021018&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=ref1km_ptype&m=nam
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2022021018&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Of course this is the NAM at 72-84 hours. π π π
Now the RDPS has come a tad closer and gets a little bit of snow in here.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2022021018&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Harvey has any accumulation deep cape think it was 1-3 with coatings elsewhere or flurries
Saying as of now !!!
They all are.
GFS is not coming to the party
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2022021018&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Little surprised but Pete giving a widespread 2-4β with the 4ββbeing more towards Cape.
On 2nd thought maybe not unreasonable.
Unless it changes as Harvey left open that amount seems very high ( as of now )
Pete made it very Very clear this that was possible. I lost count of how many times he said might and possible. His area is basically the same as Ericβs.
Indeed
to me all signs point to mostly out to sea.
Itβs really pretty much been the theme with this one .
Not really. Guidance has been about equally split. And the OTS solutions may be missing the development of a snow area well northwest of the low’s track.
well, alrighty then.
Looking the same 1- 3 for cape cod & flurries to coatings in other areas possibly.
JPD you’d like the 06z 12km NAM Kuchera snow of 4 to 8 inches including 8 inches at Boston. π
I saw!!@
Does that influence your forecast at all?
Not strongly, but what it tells me to do is to take into account the ocean-enhancement effect potential, which I would have done anyway.
6Z NAM Kuchera snow. Looks like NOAA administered a
healthy dose of Viagra to the NAM overnight.
Looks like a pretty chubby snow forecast!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2022021106&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
We’ll see IF it is still there on the 12Z run. I doubt it, but we shall see. π
New weather post.